Bayesian computation via empirical likelihood

Approximate Bayesian computation has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical likelihood provides another route to such settings that bypasses simulations from the model and the choices of the approximate Bayesian computation parameters (summary statistics, distance, tolerance), while being convergent in the number of observations. Furthermore, bypassing model simulations may lead to significant time savings in complex models, for instance those found in population genetics. The Bayesian computation with empirical likelihood algorithm we develop in this paper also provides an evaluation of its own performance through an associated effective sample size. The method is illustrated using several examples, including estimation of standard distributions, time series, and population genetics models.

Asymmetrically decorated, doped porous graphene as an effective membrane for hydrogen isotope separation

We propose a new route to hydrogen isotope separation which exploits the quantum sieving effect in the context of transmission through asymmetrically decorated, doped porous graphenes. Selectivities of D2 over H2 as well as rate constants are calculated based on ab initio interaction potentials for passage through pure and nitrogen functionalized porous graphene. One-sided dressing of the membrane with metal provides the critical asymmetry needed for an energetically favorable pathway.

Observation of bus ridership in the aftermath of the 2011 Floods in Southeast Queensland, Australia

The 2011 floods in Southeast Queensland had a devastating impact on many sectors including transport. Road and rail systems across all flooded areas of Queensland were severely affected and significant economic losses occurred as a result of roadway and railway closures. Travellers were compelled to take alternative routes because of road closures or deteriorated traffic conditions on their regular route. Extreme changes in traffic volume can occur under such scenarios which disrupts the network re-equilibrium and re-stabilisation in the recovery phase as travellers continuously adjust their travel options. This study explores how travellers respond to such a major network disruption. A comprehensive study was undertaken focusing on how bus riders reacted to the floods in Southeast Queensland by comparing the ridership patterns before, during and after the floods. The study outcomes revealed the evolving reactions of transit users to direct and indirect impacts of a natural disaster. A good understanding of this process is crucial for developing appropriate strategies to encourage modal shift of automobile users to public transit and also for modelling of travel behaviours during and after a major network disruption caused by natural disasters.

Phylodynamic analysis of the emergence and epidemiological impact of transmissible defective dengue viruses

Intra-host sequence data from RNA viruses have revealed the ubiquity of defective viruses in natural viral populations, sometimes at surprisingly high frequency. Although defective viruses have long been known to laboratory virologists, their relevance in clinical and epidemiological settings has not been established. The discovery of long-term transmission of a defective lineage of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) in Myanmar, first seen in 2001, raised important questions about the emergence of transmissible defective viruses and their role in viral epidemiology. By combining phylogenetic analyses and dynamical modelling, we investigate how evolutionary and ecological processes at the intra-host and inter-host scales shaped the emergence and spread of the defective DENV-1 lineage. We show that this lineage of defective viruses emerged between June 1998 and February 2001, and that the defective virus was transmitted primarily through co-transmission with the functional virus to uninfected individuals. We provide evidence that, surprisingly, this co-transmission route has a higher transmission potential than transmission of functional dengue viruses alone. Consequently, we predict that the defective lineage should increase overall incidence of dengue infection, which could account for the historically high dengue incidence reported in Myanmar in 2001-2002. Our results show the unappreciated potential for defective viruses to impact the epidemiology of human pathogens, possibly by modifying the virulence-transmissibility trade-off, or to emerge as circulating infections in their own right. They also demonstrate that interactions between viral variants, such as complementation, can open new pathways to viral emergence.

Effects of air pollution exposure on adult bicycle commuters : an investigation of respiratory health, motorised traffic proximity and the utility of commute re-routing

Bicycle commuting has the potential to be an effective contributing solution to address some of modern society’s biggest issues, including cardiovascular disease, anthropogenic climate change and urban traffic congestion. However, individuals shifting from a passive to an active commute mode may be increasing their potential for air pollution exposure and the associated health risk. This project, consisting of three studies, was designed to investigate the health effects of bicycle commuters in relation to air pollution exposure, in a major city in Australia (Brisbane). The aims of the three studies were to: 1) examine the relationship of in-commute air pollution exposure perception, symptoms and risk management; 2) assess the efficacy of commute re-routing as a risk management strategy by determining the exposure potential profile of ultrafine particles along commute route alternatives of low and high proximity to motorised traffic; and, 3) evaluate the feasibility of implementing commute re-routing as a risk management strategy by monitoring ultrafine particle exposure and consequential physiological response from using commute route alternatives based on real-world circumstances; 3) investigate the potential of reducing exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP; < 0.1 µm) during bicycle commuting by lowering proximity to motorised traffic with real-time air pollution and acute inflammatory measurements in healthy individuals using their typical, and an alternative to their typical, bicycle commute route. The methods of the three studies included: 1) a questionnaire-based investigation with regular bicycle commuters in Brisbane, Australia. Participants (n = 153; age = 41 ± 11 yr; 28% female) reported the characteristics of their typical bicycle commute, along with exposure perception and acute respiratory symptoms, and amenability for using a respirator or re-routing their commute as risk management strategies; 2) inhaled particle counts measured along popular pre-identified bicycle commute route alterations of low (LOW) and high (HIGH) motorised traffic to the same inner-city destination at peak commute traffic times. During commute, real-time particle number concentration (PNC; mostly in the UFP range) and particle diameter (PD), heart and respiratory rate, geographical location, and meteorological variables were measured. To determine inhaled particle counts, ventilation rate was calculated from heart-rate-ventilation associations, produced from periodic exercise testing; 3) thirty-five healthy adults (mean ± SD: age = 39 ± 11 yr; 29% female) completed two return trips of their typical route (HIGH) and a pre-determined altered route of lower proximity to motorised traffic (LOW; determined by the proportion of on-road cycle paths). Particle number concentration (PNC) and diameter (PD) were monitored in real-time in-commute. Acute inflammatory indices of respiratory symptom incidence, lung function and spontaneous sputum (for inflammatory cell analyses) were collected immediately pre-commute, and one and three hours post-commute. The main results of the three studies are that: 1) healthy individuals reported a higher incidence of specific acute respiratory symptoms in- and post- (compared to pre-) commute (p < 0.05). The incidence of specific acute respiratory symptoms was significantly higher for participants with respiratory disorder history compared to healthy participants (p < 0.05). The incidence of in-commute offensive odour detection, and the perception of in-commute air pollution exposure, was significantly lower for participants with smoking history compared to healthy participants (p < 0.05). Females reported significantly higher incidence of in-commute air pollution exposure perception and other specific acute respiratory symptoms, and were more amenable to commute re-routing, compared to males (p < 0.05). Healthy individuals have indicated a higher incidence of acute respiratory symptoms in- and post- (compared to pre-) bicycle commuting, with female gender and respiratory disorder history indicating a comparably-higher susceptibility; 2) total mean PNC of LOW (compared to HIGH) was reduced (1.56 x e4 ± 0.38 x e4 versus 3.06 x e4 ± 0.53 x e4 ppcc; p = 0.012). Total estimated ventilation rate did not vary significantly between LOW and HIGH (43 ± 5 versus 46 ± 9 L•min; p = 0.136); however, due to total mean PNC, accumulated inhaled particle counts were 48% lower in LOW, compared to HIGH (7.6 x e8 ± 1.5 x e8 versus 14.6 x e8 ± 1.8 x e8; p = 0.003); 3) LOW resulted in a significant reduction in mean PNC (1.91 x e4 ± 0.93 x e4 ppcc vs. 2.95 x e4 ± 1.50 x e4 ppcc; p ≤ 0.001). Commute distance and duration were not significantly different between LOW and HIGH (12.8 ± 7.1 vs. 12.0 ± 6.9 km and 44 ± 17 vs. 42 ± 17 mins, respectively). Besides incidence of in-commute offensive odour detection (42 vs. 56 %; p = 0.019), incidence of dust and soot observation (33 vs. 47 %; p = 0.038) and nasopharyngeal irritation (31 vs. 41 %; p = 0.007), acute inflammatory indices were not significantly associated to in-commute PNC, nor were these indices reduced with LOW compared to HIGH. The main conclusions of the three studies are that: 1) the perception of air pollution exposure levels and the amenability to adopt exposure risk management strategies where applicable will aid the general population in shifting from passive, motorised transport modes to bicycle commuting; 2) for bicycle commuting at peak morning commute times, inhaled particle counts and therefore cardiopulmonary health risk may be substantially reduced by decreasing exposure to motorised traffic, which should be considered by both bicycle commuters and urban planners; 3) exposure to PNC, and the incidence of offensive odour and nasopharyngeal irritation, can be significantly reduced when utilising a strategy of lowering proximity to motorised traffic whilst bicycle commuting, without significantly increasing commute distance or duration, which may bring important benefits for both healthy and susceptible individuals. In summary, the findings from this project suggests that bicycle commuters can significantly lower their exposure to ultrafine particle emissions by varying their commute route to reduce proximity to motorised traffic and associated combustion emissions without necessarily affecting their time of commute. While the health endpoints assessed with healthy individuals were not indicative of acute health detriment, individuals with pre-disposing physiological-susceptibility may benefit considerably from this risk management strategy – a necessary research focus with the contemporary increased popularity of both promotion and participation in bicycle commuting.

First-principle studies of the formation and diffusion of hydrogen vacancies in magnesium hydride

Ab initio density functional theory (DFT) calculations are performed to study the formation and diffusion of hydrogen vacancies on MgH2(110) surface and in bulk. We find that the formation energies for a single H-vacancy increase slightly from the surface to deep layers. The energies for creating adjacent surface divancacies at two inplane sites and at an inplane and a bridge site are even smaller than that for the formation of a single H-vacancy, a fact that is attributed to the strong vacancy−vacancy interactions. The diffusion of an H-vacancy from an in-plane site to a bridge site on the surface has the smallest activation barrier calculated at 0.15 eV and should be fast at room temperature. The activation barriers computed for H-vacancy diffusion from the surface into sublayers are all less than 0.70 eV, which is much smaller than the activation energy for desorption of hydrogen on the MgH2(110) surface (1.78−2.80 eV/H2). This suggests that surface desorption is more likely than vacancy diffusion to be rate determining, such that finding effective catalyst on the MgH2 surface to facilitate desorption will be very important for improving overall dehydrogenation performance.

Vacancy mediated desorption of hydrogen from a sodium alanate surface : An ab initio spin-polarized study

Ab initio spin-polarized density functional theory calculations are performed to explore the effect of single Na vacancy on NaAlH4(001) surface on the initial dehydrogenation kinetics. The authors found that two Al–H bond lengths become elongated and weakened due to the presence of a Na vacancy on the NaAlH4(001) surface. Spontaneous recombination from the surface to form molecular hydrogen is observed in the spin-polarized ab initio molecular dynamics simulation. The authors’ results indicate that surface Na vacancies play a critical role in accelerating the dehydrogenation kinetics in sodium alanate. The understanding gained here will aid in the rational design and development of complex hydride materials for hydrogen storage

Role of charge in destabilizing AlH4 and BH4 complex anions for hydrogen storage applications : Ab initio density functional calculations

NaAlH4 and LiBH4 are potential candidate materials for mobile hydrogen storage applications, yet they have the drawback of being highly stable and desorbing hydrogen only at elevated temperatures. In this letter, ab initio density functional theory calculations reveal how the stabilities of the AlH4 and BH4 complex anions will be affected by reducing net anionic charge. Tetrahedral AlH4 and BH4 complexes are found to be distorted with the decrease of negative charge. One H-H distance becomes smaller and the charge density will overlap between them at a small anion charge. The activation energies to release of H2 from AlH4 and BH4 complexes are thus greatly decreased. We demonstrate that point defects such as neutral Na vacancies or substitution of a Na atom with Ti on the NaAlH4(001) surface can potentially cause strong distortion of neighboring AlH4 complexes and even induce spontaneous dehydrogenation. Our results help to rationalize the conjecture that the suppression of charge transfer to AlH4 and BH4 anion as a consequence of surface defects should be very effective for improving the recycling performance of H2 in NaAlH4 and LiBH4. The understanding gained here will aid in the rational design and development of hydrogen storage materials based on these two systems.

Effects of free flow state highway traffic parameters on the performance of amplify and forward cooperative multi-hop vehicular networks

In this paper we analyse the effects of highway traffic flow parameters like vehicle arrival rate and density on the performance of Amplify and Forward (AF) cooperative vehicular networks along a multi-lane highway under free flow state. We derive analytical expressions for connectivity performance and verify them with Monte-Carlo simulations. When AF cooperative relaying is employed together with Maximum Ratio Combining (MRC) at the receivers the average route error rate shows 10-20 fold improvement compared to direct communication. A 4-8 fold increase in maximum number of traversable hops can also be observed at different vehicle densities when AF cooperative communication is used to strengthen communication routes. However the theorical upper bound of maximum number of hops promises higher performance gains.

Urban transit quality of service : user perception and behaviour

Despite its potential multiple contributions to sustainable policy objectives, urban transit is generally not widely used by the public in terms of its market share compared to that of automobiles, particularly in affluent societies with low-density urban forms like Australia. Transit service providers need to attract more people to transit by improving transit quality of service. The key to cost-effective transit service improvements lies in accurate evaluation of policy proposals by taking into account their impacts on transit users. If transit providers knew what is more or less important to their customers, they could focus their efforts on optimising customer-oriented service. Policy interventions could also be specified to influence transit users’ travel decisions, with targets of customer satisfaction and broader community welfare. This significance motivates the research into the relationship between urban transit quality of service and its user perception as well as behaviour. This research focused on two dimensions of transit user’s travel behaviour: route choice and access arrival time choice. The study area chosen was a busy urban transit corridor linking Brisbane central business district (CBD) and the St. Lucia campus of The University of Queensland (UQ). This multi-system corridor provided a ‘natural experiment’ for transit users between the CBD and UQ, as they can choose between busway 109 (with grade-separate exclusive right-of-way), ordinary on-street bus 412, and linear fast ferry CityCat on the Brisbane River. The population of interest was set as the attendees to UQ, who travelled from the CBD or from a suburb via the CBD. Two waves of internet-based self-completion questionnaire surveys were conducted to collect data on sampled passengers’ perception of transit service quality and behaviour of using public transit in the study area. The first wave survey is to collect behaviour and attitude data on respondents’ daily transit usage and their direct rating of importance on factors of route-level transit quality of service. A series of statistical analyses is conducted to examine the relationships between transit users’ travel and personal characteristics and their transit usage characteristics. A factor-cluster segmentation procedure is applied to respodents’ importance ratings on service quality variables regarding transit route preference to explore users’ various perspectives to transit quality of service. Based on the perceptions of service quality collected from the second wave survey, a series of quality criteria of the transit routes under study was quantitatively measured, particularly, the travel time reliability in terms of schedule adherence. It was proved that mixed traffic conditions and peak-period effects can affect transit service reliability. Multinomial logit models of transit user’s route choice were estimated using route-level service quality perceptions collected in the second wave survey. Relative importance of service quality factors were derived from choice model’s significant parameter estimates, such as access and egress times, seat availability, and busway system. Interpretations of the parameter estimates were conducted, particularly the equivalent in-vehicle time of access and egress times, and busway in-vehicle time. Market segmentation by trip origin was applied to investigate the difference in magnitude between the parameter estimates of access and egress times. The significant costs of transfer in transit trips were highlighted. These importance ratios were applied back to quality perceptions collected as RP data to compare the satisfaction levels between the service attributes and to generate an action relevance matrix to prioritise attributes for quality improvement. An empirical study on the relationship between average passenger waiting time and transit service characteristics was performed using the service quality perceived. Passenger arrivals for services with long headways (over 15 minutes) were found to be obviously coordinated with scheduled departure times of transit vehicles in order to reduce waiting time. This drove further investigations and modelling innovations in passenger’ access arrival time choice and its relationships with transit service characteristics and average passenger waiting time. Specifically, original contributions were made in formulation of expected waiting time, analysis of the risk-aversion attitude to missing desired service run in the passengers’ access time arrivals’ choice, and extensions of the utility function specification for modelling passenger access arrival distribution, by using complicated expected utility forms and non-linear probability weighting to explicitly accommodate the risk of missing an intended service and passenger’s risk-aversion attitude. Discussions on this research’s contributions to knowledge, its limitations, and recommendations for future research are provided at the concluding section of this thesis.

Vision-based place recognition : how low can you go?

In this paper we use the algorithm SeqSLAM to address the question, how little and what quality of visual information is needed to localize along a familiar route? We conduct a comprehensive investigation of place recognition performance on seven datasets while varying image resolution (primarily 1 to 512 pixel images), pixel bit depth, field of view, motion blur, image compression and matching sequence length. Results confirm that place recognition using single images or short image sequences is poor, but improves to match or exceed current benchmarks as the matching sequence length increases. We then present place recognition results from two experiments where low-quality imagery is directly caused by sensor limitations; in one, place recognition is achieved along an unlit mountain road by using noisy, long-exposure blurred images, and in the other, two single pixel light sensors are used to localize in an indoor environment. We also show failure modes caused by pose variance and sequence aliasing, and discuss ways in which they may be overcome. By showing how place recognition along a route is feasible even with severely degraded image sequences, we hope to provoke a re-examination of how we develop and test future localization and mapping systems.

The development of an effective vaccine against Chlamydia : utilisation of a non-toxic mucosal adjuvant to generate a protective mucosal response

Chlamydia is responsible for a wide range of diseases with enormous global economic and health burden. As the majority of chlamydial infections are asymptomatic, a vaccine has greatest potential to reduce infection and disease prevalence. Protective immunity against Chlamydia requires the induction of a mucosal immune response, ideally, at the multiple sites in the body where an infection can be established. Mucosal immunity is most effectively stimulated by targeting vaccination to the epithelium, which is best accomplished by direct vaccine application to mucosal surfaces rather than by injection. The efficacy of needle-free vaccines however is reliant on a powerful adjuvant to overcome mucosal tolerance. As very few adjuvants have proven able to elicit mucosal immunity without harmful side effects, there is a need to develop non-toxic adjuvants or safer ways to administered pre-existing toxic adjuvants. In the present study we investigated the novel non-toxic mucosal adjuvant CTA1-DD. The immunogenicity of CTA1-DD was compared to our "gold-standard" mucosal adjuvant combination of cholera toxin (CT) and cytosine-phosphate-guanosine oligodeoxynucleotide (CpG-ODN). We also utilised different needle-free immunisation routes, intranasal (IN), sublingual (SL) and transcutaneous (TC), to stimulate the induction of immunity at multiple mucosal surfaces in the body where Chlamydia are known to infect. Moreover, administering each adjuvant by different routes may also limit the toxicity of the CT/CpG adjuvant, currently restricted from use in humans. Mice were immunised with either adjuvant together with the chlamydial major outer membrane protein (MOMP) to evaluate vaccine safety and quantify the induction of antigen-specific mucosal immune responses. The level of protection against infection and disease was also assessed in vaccinated animals following a live genital or respiratory tract infectious challenge. The non-toxic CTA1-DD was found to be safe and immunogenic when delivered via the IN route in mice, inducing a comparable mucosal response and level of protective immunity against chlamydial challenge to its toxic CT/CpG counterpart administered by the same route. The utilisation of different routes of immunisation strongly influenced the distribution of antigen-specific responses to distant mucosal surfaces and also abrogated the toxicity of CT/CpG. The CT/CpG-adjuvanted vaccine was safe when administered by the SL and TC routes and conferred partial immunity against infection and pathology in both challenge models. This protection was attributed to the induction of antigen-specific pro-inflammatory cellular responses in the lymph nodes regional to the site of infection and rather than in the spleen. Development of non-toxic adjuvants and effective ways to reduce the side effects of toxic adjuvants has profound implications for vaccine development, particularly against mucosal pathogens like Chlamydia. Interestingly, we also identified two contrasting vaccines in both infection models capable of preventing infection or pathology exclusively. This indicated that the development of pathology following an infection of vaccinated animals was independent of bacterial load and was instead the result of immunopathology, potentially driven by the adaptive immune response generated following immunisation. While both vaccines expressed high levels of interleukin (IL)-17 cytokines, the pathology protected group displayed significantly reduced expression of corresponding IL-17 receptors and hence an inhibition of signalling. This indicated that the balance of IL-17-mediated responses defines the degree of protection against infection and tissue damage generated following vaccination. This study has enabled us to better understand the immune basis of pathology and protection, necessary to design more effective vaccines.

Characterisation of enterovirus 71 replication kinetics in human colorectal cell line, HT29

Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD), a contagious viral disease that commonly affects infants and children with blisters and flu like symptoms, is caused by a group of enteroviruses such as Enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16). However some HFMD caused by EV71 may further develop into severe neurological complications such as encephalitis and meningitis. The route of transmission was postulated that the virus transmit from one person to another through direct contact of vesicular fluid or droplet from the infected or via faecal-oral route. To this end, this study utilised a human colorectal adenocarcinoma cell line (HT29) with epithelioid morphology as an in vitro model for the investigation of EV71 replication kinetics. Using qPCR, viral RNA was first detected in HT29 cells as early as 12 h post infection (hpi) while viral protein was first detected at 48 hpi. A significant change in HT29 cells’ morphology was also observed after 48 hpi. Furthermore HT29 cell viability also significantly decreased at 72 hpi. Together, data from this study demonstrated that co-culture of HT29 with EV71 is a useful in vitro model to study the pathogenesis of EV71

Real time information provision benefit measured by macroscopic fundamental diagram

The existence of Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD), which relates space-mean density and flow, has been shown in urban networks under homogeneous traffic conditions. Since MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performances, studies on perimeter control strategies and an area traffic state estimation utilizing the MFD concept has been reported. One of the key requirements for well-defined MFD is the homogeneity of the area-wide traffic condition with links of similar properties, which is not universally expected in real world. For the practical application of the MFD concept, several researchers have identified the influencing factors for network homogeneity. However, they did not explicitly take the impact of drivers’ behaviour and information provision into account, which has a significant impact on simulation outputs. This research aims to demonstrate the effect of dynamic information provision on network performance by employing the MFD as a measurement. A microscopic simulation, AIMSUN, is chosen as an experiment platform. By changing the ratio of en-route informed drivers and pre-trip informed drivers different scenarios are simulated in order to investigate how drivers’ adaptation to the traffic congestion influences the network performance with respect to the MFD shape as well as other indicators, such as total travel time. This study confirmed the impact of information provision on the MFD shape, and addressed the usefulness of the MFD for measuring the dynamic information provision benefit.

Empirical evaluation of public transport travel time variability

Although transit travel time variability is essential for understanding the deterioration of reliability, optimising transit schedule and route choice; it has not attracted enough attention from the literature. This paper proposes public transport-oriented definitions of travel time variability and explores the distributions of public transport travel time using the Transit Signal Priority data. First, definitions of public transport travel time variability are established by extending the common definitions of variability in the literature and by using route and services data of public transport vehicles. Second, the paper explores the distribution of public transport travel time. A new approach for analysing the distributions involving all transit vehicles as well as vehicles from a specific route is proposed. The Lognormal distribution is revealed as the descriptors for public transport travel time from the same route and service. The methods described in this study could be of interest for both traffic managers and transit operators for planning and managing the transit systems.