Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Is there a role for axillary dissection for patients with operable breast cancer in this era of conservatism?

Background: The trend in breast cancer surgery is toward more conservative operative procedures. The new staging technique of sentinel node biopsy facilitates the identification of pathological node-negative patients in whom axillary dissection may be avoided. However, patients with a positive sentinel node biopsy would require a thorough examination of their nodal status. An axillary dissection provides good local control, and accurate staging and prognostic information to inform decisions about adjuvant therapy. In addition, the survival benefit of axillary treatment is still debated. The objectives of the present study were to examine the pattern of lymph node metastases in the axilla, and evaluate the merits of a level III axillary dissection. Methods : Between June 1997 and May 2000, 308 patients underwent a total of 320 level III dissections as part of their treatment for operable invasive breast cancer. The three axillary levels were marked intraoperatively, and the contents in each level were submitted and examined separately. The patterns of axillary lymph node (ALN) metastases were examined, and factors associated with 4 positive nodes, and level III ALN metastases were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: An average of 25 lymph nodes were examined per case (range: 8-54), and using strict anatomical criteria, the mean numbers of ALN found in levels I, II and III were 18 (range: 2-43), 4 (range: 0 19), and 3 ( range: 0-11), respectively. Axillary lymph node involvement was found in 45% of the cases (143/320). Of the 143 cases, 78% (n = 111) had involvement of level I nodes only, and 21% (n = 30) had positive ALN in levels II and, or, III, in addition to level I. Involvement of lymph nodes in level II or III without a level I metastasis was found in two cases only (0.6%). By including level II, in addition to level I, in the dissection, four cases (1%) were converted from one to three positive nodes to 4 positive nodes (P = 0.64). By the inclusion of level III to a level I and II dissection, three cases (1%) were converted from one to three positive nodes to 4 positive nodes (P = 0.74). Involvement of lymph nodes in level III was found in 22 cases (7%), and 51 cases (16%) had 4 positive nodes. Palpability of ALN, pathological tumour size, and lymphovascular invasion (LVI), were significantly associated with level III involvement and 4 positive nodes by univariate and multivariate analyses. The frequencies of level III involvement and 4 positive nodes in patients with palpable ALN were 22% and 42%, respectively. The corresponding frequencies in patients with a clinically negative axilla, and a primary tumour which was >20 mm and LVI positive, were over 14% and 31%, respectively. Conclusion: Level III axillary dissection is appropriate for patients with palpable ALN, and in those with a tumour which is >20 mm and LVI positive, principally to reduce the risk of axillary recurrence. Staging accuracy is achieved with a level II dissection, or even a level I dissection alone based on strict anatomical criteria. Sentinel node biopsy is a promising technique in identifying pathological node-positive patients in whom an axillary clearance provides optimal local control and staging information.

ERP 'old/new' effects: memory strength and decisional factor(s)

Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while subjects made old/new recognition judgments on new unstudied words and old words which had been presented at study either once ('weak') or three times ('strong'). The probability of an 'old' response was significantly higher for strong than weak words and significantly higher for weak than new words. Comparisons were made initially between ERPs to new, weak and strong words, and subsequently between ERPs associated with six strength-by-response conditions. The N400 component was found to be modulated by memory trace strength in a graded manner. Its amplitude was most negative in new word ERPs and most positive in strong word ERPs. This 'N400 strength effect' was largest at the left parietal electrode (in ear-referenced ERPs). The amplitude of the late positive complex (LPC) effect was sensitive to decision accuracy (and perhaps confidence). Its amplitude was larger in ERPs evoked by words attracting correct versus incorrect recognition decisions. The LPC effect had a left > right, centro-parietal scalp topography (in ear-referenced ERPs). Hence, whereas, the majority of previous ERP studies of episodic recognition have interpreted results from the perspective of dual-process models, we provide alternative interpretations of N400 and LPC old/new effects in terms of memory strength and decisional factor(s). (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seedling responses of four Australian tree species to toxic concentrations of manganese in solution culture

Little is known about the responses of Australian plants to excess metal, including Mn. It is important to remedy this lack of information so that knowledgeable decisions can be made about managing Mn contaminated sites where inhabited by Australian vegetation. Acacia holosericea, Melaleuca leucadendra, Eucalyptus crebra and Eucalyptus camaldulensis were grown in dilute solution culture for 10 weeks. The seedlings ( 42 days old) were exposed to six Mn treatments viz., 1, 8, 32, 128, 512 and 2048 muM. The order of tolerance to toxic concentrations of Mn was A. holosericea congruent to = E. crebra < M. leucadendra < E. camaldulensis, the critical external concentrations being approximately 5.1, 5.0, 21 and 330 muM, respectively. The critical tissue Mn concentrations for the youngest fully expanded leaf and total shoots were, respectively, 265 and 215 mug g(-1) DM for A. holosericea, 445 and 495 mug g(-1) DM for M. leucadendra, 495 and 710 mug g(-1) DM for E. crebra and 7230 and 6510 mug g(-1) DM for E. camaldulensis. The high tolerance of E. camaldulensis ( as opposed to the sensitivity of E. crebra) to excess Mn raises concern about fauna feeding on the plant and is consistent with hypotheses suggesting the Eucalyptus subgenus Symphomyrtus is particularly tolerant of stress, including excess Mn. The results from this paper provide the first comprehensive combination of growth responses, critical external concentrations, critical tissue concentrations and plant toxicity symptoms for three important Australian genera, viz., Eucalyptus, Acacia and Melaleuca, for use in the management of Mn toxic sites.

Hierarchical determinants of capital structure

We analyze the influence of time-, firm-, industry- and country-level determinants of capital structure. First, we apply hierarchical linear modeling in order to assess the relative importance of those levels. We find that time and firm levels explain 78% of firm leverage. Second, we include random intercepts and random coefficients in order to analyze the direct and indirect influences of firm/industry/country characteristics on firm leverage. We document several important indirect influences of variables at industry and country-levels on firm determinants of leverage, as well as several structural differences in the financial behavior between firms of developed and emerging countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is your vision consistent? A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization`s vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incorporating demand-side aspects into regional policy: variations in the importance of private investment decision factors across regions

Most regional programs focus on the supply side of regions, emphasizing the attraction conditions offered, such as infrastructure, labor skills, tax incentives, etc. This study analyzes one aspect of the demand side, that is, how investment decisions of private firms are made by asking the question: ""Do corporations decide the same way on investments in different parts of the territory?"" The paper analyzes the investments of 373 large Brazilian firms during 1996-2004. Based on the investment decisions of these firms, the role of sales, cash-flow, external financing, and working capital is investigated through regression analysis. The regional influence is captured by explanatory variables representing regional and firm characteristics, and by interaction dummies between the region and the main investment determinants. The results indicate significant differences across regions in the importance of investment determinants. This information is important for regional development policy, because different mechanisms should be used in different regions to foster private investments.

The Adequacy of the Enterprise Resources Planning (ERP) Systems for the Creation of intangible Managerial Accounting Information: an exploratory study

The general objective of this work was to study the contribution of the ERP for the quality of the managerial accounting information, through the perception of managers of large sized Brazilian companies. The initial principle was that, presently, we live in an enterprise reality characterized by global and competitive worldwide scenery where the information about the enterprise performance and the evaluation of the intangible assets are necessary conditions for the survival, of the companies. The research of the exploratory type is based on a sample of 37 managers of large sized-Brazilian companies. The analysis of the data treated by means of the qualitative method showed that the great majority of the companies of the sample (86%) possess an ERP implanted. It also showed that this system is used in combination with other applicative software. The managers, in its majority, were also satisfied with the information generated in relation to the dimensions Time and Content. However, with regard to the qualitative nature of the information, the ERP made some analysis possible when the Balanced Scorecard was adopted, but information able to provide an estimate of the investments carried through in the intangible assets was not obtained. These results Suggest that in these companies ERP systems are not adequate to support strategic decisions.

The Controllership Relevance or Risk Management in non-Financial Companies: a study of risk managers` and controllers` perceptions

The purpose of this study is to analyze the Controllership relevance as support risk management in non-financial companies. Risk management is a widely discussed and disseminated subject amongst financial institutions. It is obvious that economic uncertainties and, consequently, prevention and. control must also exist in non-financial companies. To enable managers to take safe-decisions, it is essential for them to be able to count on instrumental support that provides timely and adequate information, to ensure lower levels of mistakes and risk exposure. However, discussion concerning risk management in non-financial companies is still in its early stages in Brazil. Considering this gap, this study aims at assessing how Controllership has been acting in? companies under the insight of risk and how it can contribute to risk management in non-financial companies. To achieve the proposed goal, a field research was. carried-out with non-financial companies that are located in the city Sao Paulo and listed in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The research was carried out using questionnaires, which were sent do Risk Officers and Controllers of those companies with the purpose of evaluating their perception on the subject. The results,of the research allow us to conclude that Controllership offers support to risk management, through information that contributes to the mitigation of the risks in non-financial companies.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors for major depression in children and adolescents

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) in children and adolescents, compared to 'current practice'. Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity'; 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are tracked for the duration of a new episode of MDD arising in eligible children (age 6-17 years) in the Australian population in the year 2000. Simulation-modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by public psychologists is the most cost-effective intervention for MDD in children and adolescents at A$9000 per DALY saved (95% UI A$3900 to A$24 000). SSRIs and CBT by other providers are less cost-effective but likely to be less than A$50 000 per DALY saved (> 80% chance). CBT is more effective than SSRIs in children and adolescents, resulting in a greater total health benefit (DALYs saved) than could be achieved with SSRIs. Issues that require attention for the CBT intervention include equity concerns, ensuring an adequate workforce, funding arrangements and acceptability to various stakeholders. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy provided by a public psychologist is the most effective and cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of MDD in children and adolescents. However, this option is not currently accessible by all patients and will require change in policy to allow more widespread uptake. It will also require 'start-up' costs and attention to ensuring an adequate workforce.

Cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine and methylphenidate for the treatment of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Objective: To analyze from a health sector perspective the cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine (DEX) and methylphenidate (MPH) interventions to treat childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), compared to current practice. Method: Children eligible for the interventions are those aged between 4 and 17 years in 2000, who had ADHD and were seeking care for emotional or behavioural problems, but were not receiving stimulant medication. To determine health benefit, a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials was performed for DEX and MPH, and the effect sizes were translated into utility values. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Simulation modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), which is calculated in cost (in A$) per DALY averted. Results: The ICER for DEX is A$4100/DALY saved (95% UI: negative to A$14 000) and for MPH is A$15 000/DALY saved (95% UI: A$9100-22 000). DEX is more costly than MPH for the government, but much less costly for the patient. Conclusions: MPH and DEX are cost-effective interventions for childhood ADHD. DEX is more cost-effective than MPH, although if MPH were listed at a lower price on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme it would become more cost-effective. Increased uptake of stimulants for ADHD would require policy change. However, the medication of children and wider availability of stimulants may concern parents and the community.

Cost-effectiveness of psychological and pharmacological interventions for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of interventions for generalized anxiety disorder (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs]) and panic disorder (CBT, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs] and tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs]). Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filters ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are calculated for a period of one year for the eligible population (prevalent cases of generalized anxiety disorder/panic disorder identified in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, extrapolated to the Australian population in the year 2000 for those aged 18 years and older). Simulation modelling techniques are used to present 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by a psychologist on a public salary is the most cost-effective intervention for both generalized anxiety disorder (A$6900/DALY saved; 95% UI A$4000 to A$12 000) and panic disorder (A$6800/DALY saved; 95% UI A$2900 to A$15 000). Cognitive behavioural therapy results in a greater total health benefit than the drug interventions for both anxiety disorders, although equity and feasibility concerns for CBT interventions are also greater. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy is the most effective and cost-effective intervention for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder. However, its implementation would require policy change to enable more widespread access to a sufficient number of trained therapists for the treatment of anxiety disorders.

A model of migrants' remittances with human capital investment and intrafamilial transfers

This study analyzes data on migrants' remittances using a two-period theory of intergenerational transfers based on an informal, intrafamilial loan arrangement using weak altruism, a behavior between strong altruism and pure self-interest. The model provides an integrated theory of migrants' remittances, human capital investment decisions, and intrafamilial transfers applicable to low-income countries with no official pension schemes and imperfect capital markets. Propositions, derived from the theory, are tested, re-analyzing original survey data on remittances of Pacific island migrants in Sydney. When weak altruism and strong altruism yield opposite predictions, the econometric results tend to confirm the former hypothesis and invalidate the latter.

Implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation: A review of the salient issues

Given escalating concern worldwide about the loss of biodiversity, and given biodiversity's centrality to quality of life, it is imperative that current ecological knowledge fully informs societal decision making. Over the past two decades, ecological science has undergone many significant shifts in emphasis and perspective, which have important implications for how we manage ecosystems and species. In particular, a shift has occurred from the equilibrium paradigm to one that recognizes the dynamic, non-equilibrium nature of ecosystems. Revised thinking about the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological systems has important implications for management. Thus, it is of growing concern to ecologists and others that these recent developments have not been translated into information useful to managers and policy makers. Many conservation policies and plans are still based on equilibrium assumptions. A fundamental difficulty with integrating current ecological thinking into biodiversity policy and management planning is that field observations have yet to provide compelling evidence for many of the relationships suggested by non-equilibrium ecology. Yet despite this scientific uncertainty, management and policy decisions must still be made. This paper was motivated by the need for considered scientific debate on the significance of current ideas in theoretical ecology for biodiversity conservation. This paper aims to provide a platform for such discussion by presenting a critical synthesis of recent ecological literature that (1) identifies core issues in ecological theory, and (2) explores the implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation.

A hispanical dimension of the luso-american revolution (1820-1823)

The Independence of Brazil was proclaimed in September 1822 after two years during which constituent deputies elected on both sides of the Atlantic and gathered in Lisbon endeavoured to achieve unification with the former Portuguese metropoli. Due to the failure of these attempts a Constituent Assembly settled in independent Brazil in July 1823. Those two parlamentary experiences - the first to take place in the Portuguese dominions - were strongly influenced by the decisions adopted in Cadiz (1810-1814), and in Madrid (1820-1823), and by the independentist processes developed at the time in Spanish America. This work aims at observing that influence on the decisions adopted in Lisbon and Rio de Janeiro vis-a-vis the autonomical reivindications of several Brazilian provinces.