Microstructure Order Flow: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Nonlinear Forecasts

In this paper we propose a novel empirical extension of the standard market microstructure order flow model. The main idea is that heterogeneity of beliefs in the foreign exchange market can cause model instability and such instability has not been fully accounted for in the existing empirical literature. We investigate this issue using two di¤erent data sets and focusing on out- of-sample forecasts. Forecasting power is measured using standard statistical tests and, additionally, using an alternative approach based on measuring the economic value of forecasts after building a portfolio of assets. We nd there is a substantial economic value on conditioning on the proposed models.

A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Test under Cross Section Dependence

We propose a nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test for testing the null hypothesis of unit-roots processes against the alternative that allows a proportion of units to be generated by globally stationary ESTAR processes and a remaining non-zero proportion to be generated by unit root processes. The proposed test is simple to implement and accommodates cross sectional dependence. We show that the distribution of the test statistic is free of nuisance parameters as (N, T) −! 1. Monte Carlo simulation shows that our test holds correct size and under the hypothesis that data are generated by globally stationary ESTAR processes has a better power than the recent test proposed in Pesaran [2007]. Various applications are provided.

Prevalence of frailty indicators and association with socioeconomic status in middle-aged and older adults in a swiss region with universal health insurance coverage : a population-based cross-sectional study

Frailty prevalence in older adults has been reported but is largely unknown in middle-aged adults. We determined the prevalence of frailty indicators among middle-aged and older adults from a general Swiss population characterized by universal health insurance coverage and assessed the determinants of frailty with a special focus on socioeconomic status. Participants aged 50 and more from the population-based 2006-2010 Bus Santé study were included (N = 2,930). Four frailty indicators (weakness, shrinking, exhaustion, and low activity) were measured according to standard definitions. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to determine associations. Overall, 63.5%, 28.7%, and 7.8% participants presented no frailty indicators, one frailty indicator, and two or more frailty indicators, respectively. Among middle-aged participants (50-65 years), 75.1%, 22.2%, and 2.7% presented 0, 1, and 2 or more frailty indicators. The number of frailty indicators was positively associated with age, hypertension, and current smoking and negatively associated with male gender, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and serum total cholesterol level. Lower income level but not education was associated with higher number of frailty indicators. Frailty indicators are frequently encountered in both older and middle-aged adults from the Swiss general population. Despite universal health insurance coverage, household income is independently associated with frailty.

Corruption and Financial Intermediation in a Panel of Regions: Cross-Border Effects of Corruption

The importance of financial market reforms in combating corruption has been highlighted in the theoretical literature but has not been systemically tested empirically. In this study we provide a first pass at testing this relationship using both linear and nonmonotonic forms of the relationship between corruption and financial intermediation. Our study finds a negative and statistically significant impact of financial intermediation on corruption. Specifically, the results imply that a one standard deviation increase in financial intermediation is associated with a decrease in corruption of 0.20 points, or 16 percent of the standard deviation in the corruption index and this relationship is shown to be robust to a variety of specification changes, including: (i) different sets of control variables; (ii) different econometrics techniques; (iii) different sample sizes; (iv) alternative corruption indices; (v) removal of outliers; (vi) different sets of panels; and (vii) allowing for cross country interdependence, contagion effects, of corruption.

A control flow prototype for a dose recommending device for chronic myeloid leukemia patients

In this paper we present a prototype of a control flow for an a posteriori drug dose adaptation for Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) patients. The control flow is modeled using Timed Automata extended with Tasks (TAT) model. The feedback loop of the control flow includes the decision-making process for drug dose adaptation. This is based on the outputs of the body response model represented by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm for drug concentration prediction. The decision is further checked for conformity with the dose level rules of a medical guideline. We also have developed an automatic code synthesizer for the icycom platform as an extension of the TIMES tool.

Relations of the job demands-control-support model of job strain with personality attributes : a cross-cultural study in Switzerland and South Africa

Among the various work stress models, one of the most popular to date is the job demands-­‐control (JDC) model developed by Karasek (1979), which postulates that work-­‐related strain will be the highest under work conditions characterized by high demands and low autonomy. The absence of social support at work will further increase negative outcomes. However, this model does not apply equally to all individuals and to all cultures. In the following studies, we assessed work characteristics, personality traits, culture-­‐driven individual attributes, and work-­‐related health outcomes, through the administration of questionnaires. The samples consist of Swiss (n = 622) and South African (n = 879) service-­‐oriented employees (from health, finance, education and commerce sectors) and aged from 18 to 65 years old. Results generally confirm the universal contribution of high psychological demands, low decision latitude and low supervisor support at work, as well as high neuroticism predict the worse health outcomes among employees in both countries. Furthermore, low neuroticism plays a moderating role between psychological demands and burnout, while high openness and high conscientiousness each play a moderating role between decision latitude and burnout in South Africa. Results also reveal that culture-­‐driven individual attributes play a role in both countries, but in a unique manner and according to the ethnic group of belonging. Given that organizations are increasingly characterized with multicultural employees as well as increasingly adverse and complex job conditions, our results help in identifying more updated and refined dynamics that are key between the employee and the work environment in today's context. -- L'un des modèles sur le stress au travail des plus répandus est celui développé par Karasek (1979), qui postule qu'une mauvaise santé chez les employés résulte d'une combinaison de demandes psychologiques élevées, d'une latitude décisionnelle faible et de l'absence de soutien social au travail. Néanmoins, ce modèle ne s'applique pas de façon équivalente chez tous les individus et dans toutes les cultures. Dans les études présentées, nous avons mesuré les caractéristiques de travail, les traits de personnalité, les traits culturels et les effets lies à la santé à l'aide de questionnaires. L'échantillon provient de la Suisse (n = 622) et de l'Afrique du Sud (n = 879) et comprend des employés de domaines divers en lien avec le service (notamment des secteurs de la santé, finance, éducation et commerce) tous âgés entre 18 et 65 ans. Les résultats confirment l'universalité des effets directs des demandes au travail, la latitude décisionnelle faible, le soutien social faible provenant du supérieur hiérarchique, ainsi que le névrosisme élevé qui contribuent à un niveau de santé faible au travail, et ce, dans les deux pays. De plus, un niveau faible de névrosisme a un effet de modération entre les demandes au travail et l'épuisement professionnel, alors que l'ouverture élevée et le caractère consciencieux élevé modèrent la relation entre la latitude décisionnelle et l'épuisement professionnel en Afrique du Sud. Nous avons aussi trouvé que les traits culturels jouent un rôle dans les deux pays, mais de façon unique et en fonction du groupe ethnique d'appartenance. Sachant que les organisations sont de plus en plus caractérisées par des employés d'origine ethnique variées, et que les conditions de travail se complexifient, nos résultats contribuent à mieux comprendre les dynamiques entre l'employé et l'environnement de travail contemporain. personnalité, différences individuelles, comparaisons culturelles, culture, stress au travail, épuisement professionnel, santé des employés.

Exploring women's academic careers in cross-national perspective: lessons for equal epportunity eolicies

Purpose - In recent years, several countries and/or higher education institutions have adopted equal opportunity policies to promote women's access to the upper levels of the academic career structure. The purpose of this paper is to argue that there is no universal solution to the glass ceiling that women face within academia. Insofar as the feminisation process evolves according to a variety of models, according to national and occupational context, the solutions adopted in one context may prove to be ineffective elsewhere. Design/methodology/approach - Analysis of the different models of occupational feminisation is based on a secondary analysis of the sociological literature on the subject, combined with recent data on women's access to academic positions in France and Germany. Findings - Although there are similarities in the structure of the academic labour market across countries and in the rate of feminisation of the most prestigious academic positions, the precise mechanisms through which women gain access to an academic career vary significantly from one national context to another. This cross-national variation would tend to suggest that there will also be variation when it comes to defining the most effective policy measures for increasing women's access to the upper echelons of the academic hierarchy. Indeed, different models of gender equality in academia may lead to very different results with regard to existing gender relations. Originality/value - The paper uses the available sociological literature on the feminisation process to examine how different measures adopted to promote women's access to the highest echelons of the academic career structure may have different effects on the reproduction and/or transformation of the dominant sex/gender system.

Angiotensin II receptor blockade prevents acute renal sodium retention induced by low levels of orthostatic stress.

BACKGROUND: Depending on its magnitude, lower body negative pressure (LBNP) has been shown to induce a progressive activation of neurohormonal, renal tubular, and renal hemodynamic responses, thereby mimicking the renal responses observed in clinical conditions characterized by a low effective arterial volume such as congestive heart failure. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of angiotensin II receptor blockade with candesartan on the renal hemodynamic and urinary excretory responses to a progressive orthostatic stress in normal subjects. METHODS: Twenty healthy men were submitted to three levels of LBNP (0, -10, and -20 mbar or 0, -7.5, and -15 mm Hg) for 1 hour according to a crossover design with a minimum of 2 days between each level of LBNP. Ten subjects were randomly allocated to receive a placebo and ten others were treated with candesartan 16 mg orally for 10 days before and during the three levels of LBNP. Systemic and renal hemodynamics, renal sodium excretions, and the hormonal response were measured hourly before, during, and for 2 hours after LBNP. RESULTS: During placebo, LBNP induced no change in systemic and renal hemodynamics, but sodium excretion decreased dose dependently with higher levels of LBNP. At -20 mbar, cumulative 3-hour sodium balance was negative at -2.3 +/- 2.3 mmol (mean +/- SEM). With candesartan, mean blood pressure decreased (76 +/- 1 mm Hg vs. 83 +/- 3 mm Hg, candesartan vs. placebo, P < 0.05) and renal plasma flow increased (858 +/- 52 mL/min vs. 639 +/- 36 mL/min, candesartan vs. placebo, P < 0.05). Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was not significantly higher with candesartan (127 +/- 7 mL/min in placebo vs. 144 +/- 12 mL/min in candesartan). No significant decrease in sodium and water excretion was found during LBNP in candesartan-treated subjects. At -20 mbar, the 3-hour cumulative sodium excretion was + 4.6 +/- 1.4 mmol in the candesartan group (P= 0.02 vs. placebo). CONCLUSION: Selective blockade of angiotensin II type 1 (AT1) receptors with candesartan increases renal blood flow and prevents the antinatriuresis during sustained lower body negative pressure despite a modest decrease in blood pressure. These results thus provide interesting insights into potential benefits of AT1 receptor blockade in sodium-retaining states such as congestive heart failure.

Is intra-operative blood flow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula?

BACKGROUND: For over 50 years, radiocephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulae (RCAVF) have been the primary and best vascular access for haemodialysis. Nevertheless, early failure due to thrombosis or non-maturation is a major complication resulting in their abandonment. This prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive value of intra-operative blood flow on early failure of primary RCAVF before the first effective dialysis. METHODS: We enrolled patients undergoing creation of primary RCAVF for haemodialysis based on the pre-operative ultrasound vascular mapping discussed in a multidisciplinary approach. Intra-operative blood flow measurement was systematically performed once the anastomosis had been completed using a transit-time ultrasonic flowmeter. During the follow-up, blood flow was estimated by colour flow ultrasound at various intervals. Any events related to the RCAVF were recorded. RESULTS: Autogenous RCAVFs (n = 58) in 58 patients were constructed and followed up for an average of 30 days. Thrombosis and non-maturation occurred in eight (14%) and four (7%) patients, respectively. The intra-operative blood flow in functioning RCAVFs was significantly higher compared to non-functioning RCAVFs (230 vs 98 mL/min; P = 0.007), as well as 1 week (753 vs 228 mL/min; P = 0.0008) and 4 weeks (915 vs 245 mL/min, P < 0.0001) later. Blood flow volume measurements with a cut-off value of 120 mL/min had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and positive predictive value of 91%. CONCLUSIONS: Blood flow <120 mL has a good predictive value for early failure in RCAVF. During the procedure, this cut-off value may be used to select appropriately which RCAVF should be investigated in the operation theatre in order to correct in real time any abnormality.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale has been the subject of various studies. The complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of process-based models for a first assessment. GISbased approaches associating an automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading may provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at the regional scale. The use of a digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, for the Canton de Vaud territory (Switzerland), a lithological map and a land use map, has allowed automatic identification of the potential source areas. The spreading estimates are based on basic probabilistic and energy calculations that allow to define the maximal runout distance of a debris flow.

Lamella formation and emigration from the water by a laboratory colony of Biomphalaria glabrata (SAY) in flow-through system

Lamella formation and emigration from the water were investigated in juvenile Biomphalaria glabrata reared at two temperatures in aquaria with a constant water flow. Most snails (97.4%) reared at the lower temperature (21- C) formed lamella at the shell aperture and emigrated from the water, whereas only 10.1% did so at 25- C. Eighty percent of emigrations at 21- C occurred within a period of 15 days, 70-85 days after hatching. A comparison of the studies done so far indicates that the phenomenon may be affected by the ageing of snail colonies kept in the laboratory and their geographic origin, rather than the rearing conditions. This hypothesis, however, requires experimental confirmation.