Implications of climate change for diseases, crop yields and food security

Accelerated climate change affects components of complex biological interactions differentially, often causing changes that are difficult to predict. Crop yield and quality are affected by climate change directly, and indirectly, through diseases that themselves will change but remain important. These effects are difficult to dissect and model as their mechanistic bases are generally poorly understood. Nevertheless, a combination of integrated modelling from different disciplines and multi-factorial experimentation will advance our understanding and prioritisation of the challenges. Food security brings in additional socio-economic, geographical and political factors. Enhancing resilience to the effects of climate change is important for all these systems and functional diversity is one of the most effective targets for improved sustainability.

Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years

Low variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Previous studies have shown that national crop yield variability has changed in the past, with the direction and magnitude dependent on crop type and location. Whilst such studies acknowledge the importance of climate variability in determining yield variability, it has been assumed that its magnitude and its effect on crop production have not changed through time and, hence, that changes to yield variability have been due to non-climatic factors. We address this assumption by jointly examining yield and climate variability for three major crops (rice, wheat and maize) over the past 50 years. National yield time series and growing season temperature and precipitation were de-trended and related using multiple linear regression. Yield variability changed significantly in half of the crop–country combinations examined. For several crop–country combinations, changes in yield variability were related to changes in climate variability.

Evaluation of diagnostic molecular markers for DUS phenotypic assessment in the cereal crop, barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare L.)

The deployment of genetic markers is of interest in crop assessment and breeding programmes, due to the potential savings in cost and time afforded. As part of the internationally recognised framework for the awarding of Plant Breeders’ Rights (PBR), new barley variety submissions are evaluated using a suite of morphological traits to ensure they are distinct, uniform and stable (DUS) in comparison to all previous submissions. Increasing knowledge of the genetic control of many of these traits provides the opportunity to assess the potential of deploying diagnostic/perfect genetic markers in place of phenotypic assessment. Here, we identify a suite of 25 genetic markers assaying for 14 DUS traits, and implement them using a single genotyping platform (KASPar). Using a panel of 169 UK barley varieties, we show that phenotypic state at three of these traits can be perfectly predicted by genotype. Predictive values for an additional nine traits ranged from 81 to 99 %. Finally, by comparison of varietal discrimination based on phenotype and genotype resulted in correlation of 0.72, indicating that deployment of molecular markers for varietal discrimination could be feasible in the near future. Due to the flexibility of the genotyping platform used, the genetic markers described here can be used in any number or combination, in-house or by outsourcing, allowing flexible deployment by users. These markers are likely to find application where tracking of specific alleles is required in breeding programmes, or for potential use within national assessment programmes for the awarding of PBRs.

Association mapping of partitioning loci in barley

Background: Association mapping, initially developed in human disease genetics, is now being applied to plant species. The model species Arabidopsis provided some of the first examples of association mapping in plants, identifying previously cloned flowering time genes, despite high population sub-structure. More recently, association genetics has been applied to barley, where breeding activity has resulted in a high degree of population sub-structure. A major genotypic division within barley is that between winter- and spring-sown varieties, which differ in their requirement for vernalization to promote subsequent flowering. To date, all attempts to validate association genetics in barley by identifying major flowering time loci that control vernalization requirement (VRN-H1 and VRN-H2) have failed. Here, we validate the use of association genetics in barley by identifying VRN-H1 and VRN-H2, despite their prominent role in determining population sub-structure. Results: By taking barley as a typical inbreeding crop, and seasonal growth habit as a major partitioning phenotype, we develop an association mapping approach which successfully identifies VRN-H1 and VRN-H2, the underlying loci largely responsible for this agronomic division. We find a combination of Structured Association followed by Genomic Control to correct for population structure and inflation of the test statistic, resolved significant associations only with VRN-H1 and the VRN-H2 candidate genes, as well as two genes closely linked to VRN-H1 (HvCSFs1 and HvPHYC). Conclusion: We show that, after employing appropriate statistical methods to correct for population sub-structure, the genome-wide partitioning effect of allelic status at VRN-H1 and VRN-H2 does not result in the high levels of spurious association expected to occur in highly structured samples. Furthermore, we demonstrate that both VRN-H1 and the candidate VRN-H2 genes can be identified using association mapping. Discrimination between intragenic VRN-H1 markers was achieved, indicating that candidate causative polymorphisms may be discerned and prioritised within a larger set of positive associations. This proof of concept study demonstrates the feasibility of association mapping in barley, even within highly structured populations. A major advantage of this method is that it does not require large numbers of genome-wide markers, and is therefore suitable for fine mapping and candidate gene evaluation, especially in species for which large numbers of genetic markers are either unavailable or too costly.

An improved methodology for the recovery of Zea mays and other large crop pollen, with implications for environmental archaeology in the Neotropics

We present a simple sieving methodology to aid the recovery of large cultigen pollen grains, such as maize (Zea mays L.), manioc (Manihot esculenta Crantz), and sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L.), among others, for the detection of food production using fossil pollen analysis of lake sediments in the tropical Americas. The new methodology was tested on three large study lakes located next to known and/or excavated pre-Columbian archaeological sites in South and Central America. Five paired samples, one treated by sieving, the other prepared using standard methodology, were compared for each of the three sites. Using the new methodology, chemically digested sediment samples were passed through a 53 µm sieve, and the residue was retained, mounted in silicone oil, and counted for large cultigen pollen grains. The filtrate was mounted and analysed for pollen according to standard palynological procedures. Zea mays (L.) was recovered from the sediments of all three study lakes using the sieving technique, where no cultigen pollen had been previously recorded using the standard methodology. Confidence intervals demonstrate there is no significant difference in pollen assemblages between the sieved versus unsieved samples. Equal numbers of exotic Lycopodium spores added to both the filtrate and residue of the sieved samples allow for direct comparison of cultigen pollen abundance with the standard terrestrial pollen count. Our technique enables the isolation and rapid scanning for maize and other cultigen pollen in lake sediments, which, in conjunction with charcoal and pollen records, is key to determining land-use patterns and the environmental impact of pre-Columbian societies.

Shoot zinc (Zn) concentration varies widely within Brassica oleracea L. and is affected by soil Zn and phosphorus (P) levels

The low availability of zinc (Zn) in soils and crops affects dietary Zn intake worldwide. This study sought to determine if the natural genetic variation in shoot Zn concentrations (Zn(shoot)) is sufficient to pursue a crop improvement breeding strategy in a leafy vegetable crop. The gene-pool of Brassica oleracea L. was sampled using a large (n = 376) diversity foundation set (DFS), representing almost all species-wide common allelic variation, and 74 commercial varieties (mostly F(1)). The DFS genotypes were grown at low and high soil phosphorus (P) levels under glasshouse and field conditions, and also in a Zn-deficient soil, with or without Zn-fertilisation, in a glasshouse. Despite the large variation in Zn(shoot) among genotypes, environment had a profound effect on Zn(shoot) The heritability of Zn(shoot) was significant, but relatively low, among 90 doubled-haploid (DH) lines from a mapping population. While several quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with Zn(shoot) occurred on chromosomes C2, C3, C5, C7, and C9, these were generally weak and conditional upon growth conditions. Breeding for Zn(shoot) in B. oleracea is therefore likely to be challenging. Shoot P concentrations increased substantially in all genotypes under low soil Zn conditions. Conversely, only some genotypes had increased Zn(shoot) at low soil P levels. Sufficient natural genetic variation may therefore exist to study some of the interactions between Zn and P nutrition.

Genes driving potato tuber initiation and growth: identification based on transcriptional changes using the POCI array

The increasing amount of available expressed gene sequence data makes whole-transcriptome analysis of certain crop species possible. Potato currently has the second largest number of publicly available expressed sequence tag (EST) sequences among the Solanaceae. Most of these ESTs, plus other proprietary sequences, were combined and used to generate a unigene assembly. The set of 246,182 sequences produced 46,345 unigenes, which were used to design a 44K 60-mer oligo array (Potato Oligo Chip Initiative: POCI). In this study, we attempt to identify genes controlling and driving the process of tuber initiation and growth by implementing large-scale transcriptional changes using the newly developed POCI array. Major gene expression profiles could be identified exhibiting differential expression at key developmental stages. These profiles were associated with functional roles in cell division and growth. A subset of genes involved in the regulation of the cell cycle, based on their Gene Ontology classification, exhibit a clear transient upregulation at tuber onset indicating increased cell division during these stages. The POCI array allows the study of potato gene expression on a much broader level than previously possible and will greatly enhance analysis of transcriptional control mechanisms in a wide range of potato research areas. POCI sequence and annotation data are publicly available through the POCI database (http://pgrc.ipk-gatersleben.de/poci).

High Resolution Melt (HRM) analysis is an efficient tool to genotype EMS mutants in complex crop genomes

Background: Targeted Induced Loci Lesions IN Genomes (TILLING) is increasingly being used to generate and identify mutations in target genes of crop genomes. TILLING populations of several thousand lines have been generated in a number of crop species including Brassica rapa. Genetic analysis of mutants identified by TILLING requires an efficient, high-throughput and cost effective genotyping method to track the mutations through numerous generations. High resolution melt (HRM) analysis has been used in a number of systems to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and insertion/deletions (IN/DELs) enabling the genotyping of different types of samples. HRM is ideally suited to high-throughput genotyping of multiple TILLING mutants in complex crop genomes. To date it has been used to identify mutants and genotype single mutations. The aim of this study was to determine if HRM can facilitate downstream analysis of multiple mutant lines identified by TILLING in order to characterise allelic series of EMS induced mutations in target genes across a number of generations in complex crop genomes. Results: We demonstrate that HRM can be used to genotype allelic series of mutations in two genes, BraA.CAX1a and BraA.MET1.a in Brassica rapa. We analysed 12 mutations in BraA.CAX1.a and five in BraA.MET1.a over two generations including a back-cross to the wild-type. Using a commercially available HRM kit and the Lightscanner™ system we were able to detect mutations in heterozygous and homozygous states for both genes. Conclusions: Using HRM genotyping on TILLING derived mutants, it is possible to generate an allelic series of mutations within multiple target genes rapidly. Lines suitable for phenotypic analysis can be isolated approximately 8-9 months (3 generations) from receiving M3 seed of Brassica rapa from the RevGenUK TILLING service.

Genetic analysis of potassium use efficiency in Brassica oleracea

Potassium (K) fertilizers are used in intensive and extensive agricultural systems to maximize production. However, there are both financial and environmental costs to K-fertilization. It is therefore important to optimize the efficiency with which K-fertilizers are used. Cultivating crops that acquire and/or utilize K more effectively can reduce the use of K-fertilizers. The aim of the present study was to determine the genetic factors affecting K utilization efficiency (KUtE), defined as the reciprocal of shoot K concentration (1/K(shoot)), and K acquisition efficiency (KUpE), defined as shoot K content, in Brassica oleracea. Genetic variation in K(shoot) was estimated using a structured diversity foundation set (DFS) of 376 accessions and in 74 commercial genotypes grown in glasshouse and field experiments that included phosphorus (P) supply as a treatment factor. Chromosomal quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with K(shoot) and KUpE were identified using a genetic mapping population grown in the glasshouse and field. Putative QTL were tested using recurrent backcross substitution lines in the glasshouse. More than two-fold variation in K(shoot) was observed among DFS accessions grown in the glasshouse, a significant proportion of which could be attributed to genetic factors. Several QTL associated with K(shoot) were identified, which, despite a significant correlation in K(shoot) among genotypes grown in the glasshouse and field, differed between these two environments. A QTL associated with K(shoot) in glasshouse-grown plants (chromosome C7 at 62 center dot 2 cM) was confirmed using substitution lines. This QTL corresponds to a segment of arabidopsis chromosome 4 containing genes encoding the K(+) transporters AtKUP9, AtAKT2, AtKAT2 and AtTPK3. There is sufficient genetic variation in B. oleracea to breed for both KUtE and KUpE. However, as QTL associated with these traits differ between glasshouse and field environments, marker-assisted breeding programmes must consider carefully the conditions under which the crop will be grown.

An easily implemented agro-hydrological procedure with dynamic root simulation for water transfer in the crop-soil system: validation and application

Models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are key components of agro-hydrological models for irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide practices. Many of the hydrological models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are either too approximate due to oversimplified algorithms or employ complex numerical schemes. In this paper we developed a simple and sufficiently accurate algorithm which can be easily adopted in agro-hydrological models for the simulation of water dynamics. We used a dual crop coefficient approach proposed by the FAO for estimating potential evaporation and transpiration, and a dynamic model for calculating relative root length distribution on a daily basis. In a small time step of 0.001 d, we implemented algorithms separately for actual evaporation, root water uptake and soil water content redistribution by decoupling these processes. The Richards equation describing soil water movement was solved using an integration strategy over the soil layers instead of complex numerical schemes. This drastically simplified the procedures of modeling soil water and led to much shorter computer codes. The validity of the proposed model was tested against data from field experiments on two contrasting soils cropped with wheat. Good agreement was achieved between measurement and simulation of soil water content in various depths collected at intervals during crop growth. This indicates that the model is satisfactory in simulating water transfer in the crop-soil system, and therefore can reliably be adopted in agro-hydrological models. Finally we demonstrated how the developed model could be used to study the effect of changes in the environment such as lowering the groundwater table caused by the construction of a motorway on crop transpiration. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A universal agro-hydrological model for water and nitrogen cycles in the soil-crop system SMCR_N: critical update and further validation

Agro-hydrological models have widely been used for optimizing resources use and minimizing environmental consequences in agriculture. SMCRN is a recently developed sophisticated model which simulates crop response to nitrogen fertilizer for a wide range of crops, and the associated leaching of nitrate from arable soils. In this paper, we describe the improvements of this model by replacing the existing approximate hydrological cascade algorithm with a new simple and explicit algorithm for the basic soil water flow equation, which not only enhanced the model performance in hydrological simulation, but also was essential to extend the model application to the situations where the capillary flow is important. As a result, the updated SMCRN model could be used for more accurate study of water dynamics in the soil-crop system. The success of the model update was demonstrated by the simulated results that the updated model consistently out-performed the original model in drainage simulations and in predicting time course soil water content in different layers in the soil-wheat system. Tests of the updated SMCRN model against data from 4 field crop experiments showed that crop nitrogen offtakes and soil mineral nitrogen in the top 90 cm were in a good agreement with the measured values, indicating that the model could make more reliable predictions of nitrogen fate in the crop-soil system, and thus provides a useful platform to assess the impacts of nitrogen fertilizer on crop yield and nitrogen leaching from different production systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the benefits of crop albedo bio-geoengineering

It has been proposed that growing crop varieties with higher canopy albedo would lower summer-time temperatures over North America and Eurasia and provide a partial mitigation of global warming ('bio-geoengineering') (Ridgwell et al 2009 Curr. Biol. 19 1–5). Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere–vegetation model (HadCM3) with prescribed agricultural regions, to investigate to what extent the regional effectiveness of crop albedo bio-geoengineering might be influenced by a progressively warming climate as well as assessing the impacts on regional hydrological cycling and primary productivity. Consistent with previous analysis, we find that the averted warming due to increasing crop canopy albedo by 0.04 is regionally and seasonally specific, with the largest cooling of ~1 °C for Europe in summer whereas in the low latitude monsoonal SE Asian regions of high density cropland, the greatest cooling is experienced in winter. In this study we identify potentially important positive impacts of increasing crop canopy albedo on soil moisture and primary productivity in European cropland regions, due to seasonal increases in precipitation. We also find that the background climate state has an important influence on the predicted regional effectiveness of bio-geoengineering on societally-relevant timescales (ca 100 years). The degree of natural climate variability and its dependence on greenhouse forcing that are evident in our simulations highlights the difficulties faced in the detection and verification of climate mitigation in geoengineering schemes. However, despite the small global impact, regionally focused schemes such as crop albedo bio-geoengineering have detection advantages.

Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century

The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project evaluation of the terrestrial water cycle involves using land surface models and general hydrological models to assess hydrologically important variables including evaporation, soil moisture, and runoff. Such models require meteorological forcing data, and this paper describes the creation of the WATCH Forcing Data for 1958–2001 based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and for 1901–57 based on reordered reanalysis data. It also discusses and analyses modelindependent estimates of reference crop evaporation. Global average annual cumulative reference crop evaporation was selected as a widely adopted measure of potential evapotranspiration. It exhibits no significant trend from 1979 to 2001 although there are significant long-term increases in global average vapor pressure deficit and concurrent significant decreases in global average net radiation and wind speed. The near-constant global average of annual reference crop evaporation in the late twentieth century masks significant decreases in some regions (e.g., the Murray–Darling basin) with significant increases in others.

The identity of crop pollinators helps target conservation for improved ecosystem services

Insect pollinated mass flowering crops are becoming more widespread and there is a need to understand which insects are primarily responsible for the pollination of these crops so conservation measures can be appropriately targeted in the face of pollinator declines. This study used field surveys in conjunction with cage manipulations to identify the relative contributions of different pollinator taxa to the pollination of two widespread flowering crops, field beans and oilseed rape. Flower visiting pollinator communities observed in the field were distinct for each crop; while field beans were visited primarily by a few bumblebee species, multiple pollinator taxa visited oilseed, and the composition of this pollinator community was highly variable spatially and temporally. Neither pollinator community, however, appears to be meeting the demands of crops in our study regions. Cage manipulations showed that multiple taxa can effectively pollinate both oilseed and field beans, but bumblebees are particularly effective bean pollinators. Combining field observations and cage manipulations demonstrated that the pollination demands of these two mass flowering crops are highly contrasting, one would benefit from management to increase the abundance of some key taxa, whilst for the other, boosting overall pollinator abundance and diversity would be more appropriate. Our findings highlight the need for crop specific mitigation strategies that are targeted at conserving specific pollinator taxa (or group of taxa) that are both active and capable of crop pollination in order to reduce pollination deficits and meet the demands of future crop production.