Full Tècnic. Conreus Extensius. Comarques de Girona, núm. 14 (2008)

El sorgo per a gra és una planta rústica, interessant principalment en les situacions on la disponibilitat d’aigua és limitada: • En secà, pot presentar rendibilitats superiors al gira-sol, en els terrenys més fèrtils i amb una bona reserva hídrica. • En regadiu, pot donar rendibilitats superiors al blat de moro, quan l’aigua que es disposa és marcadament insuficient per cobrir les necessitats d’aquest conreu.

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

La formació d'una política exterior per a l'Índia. La visita de Nehru a l'Espanya republicana durant la Guerra Civil

L'objectiu ha estat posar en relació dues realitats que fins al moment havien estat considerades completament alienes, com són l’Índia i Espanya. La recerca de fonts per a les relacions bilaterals de tot tipus es va iniciar al segle XIX. A partir d’aquest moment apareixen tres camps fonamentals on aprofundir. D’una banda tenim les relacions diplomàtiques i la seva vessant política a partir del segle XX. El desenvolupament de representacions consulars té a veure amb el creixement de l’activitat econòmica amb l’Índia britànica, especialment en el camp del proveïment de primeres matèries (cotó i jute). En aquest sentit, la recuperació de les relacions econòmiques va ser clau per al posterior mutu reconeixement diplomàtic el 1957 quan l’Índia ja era un estat independent. Entre mig queden anys de malvolença degut a la vinculació de Nehru amb el govern republicà durant la Guerra Civil i la posició de l’Índia en el cas d’Espanya a l’ONU. Un altre camp d’interès per a les relacions bilaterals es centra en la missió de Bombay que a partir de 1920 fou administrada per jesuïtes catalans, valencians i aragonesos. Finalment, un seguiment de la premsa i la intel•lectualitat espanyola mostra com l’Índia es va convertir a partir de 1920 en un nou focus d’interès informatiu i pel món acadèmic, com no ho havia estat fins llavors. Aquest descobriment de l’Índia per part de viatgers, artistes i periodistes obra una nova via d’intercanvi que es veurà trucada per la Guerra Civil i el posterior establiment d’un règim que destruí el teixit intel•lectual del país.

Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

Anti-doping testing at the 2008 European football championship.

Big sports events like the 2008 European Football Championship are a challenge for anti-doping activities, particularly when the sports event is hosted by two different countries and there are two laboratories accredited by the World Anti-Doping Agency. This challenges the logistics of sample collection as well as the chemical analyses, which must be carried out timeously. The following paper discusses the handling of whereabouts information for each athlete and the therapeutic use exemption system, experiences in sample collection and transportation of blood and urine samples, and the results of the chemical analysis in two different accredited laboratories. An overview of the analytical results of blood profiling and growth hormone testing in comparison with the distribution of the normal population is also presented.

Dealing with Tyranny: International Sanctions and Autocrats’ Duration

This paper enquires into whether economic sanctions are effective in destabilizing authoritarian rulers. We argue that this effect is mediated by the type of authoritarian regime against which sanctions are imposed. Thus, personalist regimes and monarchies, which are more dependent on aid and resource rents to maintain their patronage networks, are more likely to be affected by sanctions. In contrast, single-party and military regimes are able to maintain (and even increase) their tax revenues and to reallocate their expenditures and so increase their levels of cooptation. Data on sanction episodes, authoritarian rulers and regimes covering the period 1946–2000 have allowed us to test our hypotheses. To do so, duration models have been run, and the results confirm that personalist autocrats are more vulnerable to foreign pressure. Concretely, the analysis of the modes of exit reveals that sanctions increase the likelihood of an irregular change of ruler, such as a coup. Sanctions are basically ineffective when targeting single-party or military regimes.

Economic impact of a new museum on the local economy: "The Gaudí Centre"

In this paper we analyse the economic impact of a new museum (the Gaudí Centre) on the local economy of Reus, a city in the province of Tarragona (southern Catalonia). We use a Keynesian income multiplier model to evaluate the effects of this new cultural venue on local income. In our calculation of the economic impact we distinguish between two phases: the construction phase and the exploitation phase. Our results show the important income impact of this cultural investment on the local economy.