A regional approach to the consultations held by the Secretary-General of the United Nations on part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Includes bibliography

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados

This report analyses the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados to assess the potential economic impact of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Barbados. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (tourism and transport sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The analysis has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create potential catastrophe in Barbados. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas. The A2 and B2 projections have indicated that the number of catastrophes that can be classified as great is likely to be increased for the country. This is based upon the possible effects of the projected unscheduled impacts to the economy both in terms of loss of life and economic infrastructure. These results arise from the A2 and B2 projections, thereby indicating that growth in numbers and losses are largely due to socioeconomic changes over the projection period and hence the need for increased adaptation strategies. A key adaptation measure recommended is for the government of Barbados to begin reducing the infrastructure deficit by continuously investing in protective infrastructure to decrease the country’s vulnerability to changes in the climate. With regard to the tourism sector, it was found that by combining the impacts due to a reduction in tourist arrivals, coral reef loss and SLR, estimated total economic impact of climate change is US $7,648 million (A2 scenario) and US $5,127 million (B2 scenario). An economic analysis of the benefits and costs of several adaptation options was undertaken to determine the cost effectiveness of each one and it was found that four (4) out of nine (9) options had high cost-benefit ratios. It is therefore recommended that the strategies that were most attractive in terms of the cost-benefit ratios be pursued first and these were: (1) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (2) artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) development of national adaptation plans (levee, sea wall and boardwalk); (4) revision of policies related to financing carbon neutral tourism; and (5) increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures. The total cost of climate change on international transportation in Barbados aggregated the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation, new climate policies and SLR. The impact for air transportation ranges from US$10,727 million (B2 scenario) to US$12,279 million (A2 scenario) and for maritime transportation impact estimates range from US$1,992 million (B2 scenario) to US$2,606 million (A2 scenario). For international transportation as a whole, the impact of climate change varies from US$12,719 million under the B2 scenario to US$14,885 million under the A2 scenario. Barbados has the institutions set up to implement adaptive strategies to strengthen the resilience of the existing international transportation system to climate change impacts. Air and sea terminals and facilities can be made more robust, raised, or even relocated as need be, and where critical to safety and mobility, expanded redundant systems may be considered.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

Description of the mitochondrial genome of the tree coral Dendrophyllia arbuscula (Anthozoa, Scleractinia)

Dendrophylliidae is one of the few monophyletic families within the Scleractinia that embraces zooxanthellate and azooxanthellate species represented by both solitary and colonial forms. Among the exclusively azooxanthellate genera, Dendrophyllia is reported worldwide from 1 to 1200 m deep. To date, although three complete mitochondrial (mt) genomes from representatives of the family are available, only that from Turbinaria peltata has been formally published. Here we describe the complete nucleotide sequence of the mt genome from Dendrophyllia arbuscula that is 19 069 bp in length and comprises two rDNAs, two tRNAs, and 13 protein-coding genes arranged in the canonical scleractinian mt gene order. No genes overlap, resulting in the presence of 18 intergenic spacers and one of the longest scleractinian mt genome sequenced to date.

Lifespan and reproductive dynamics of the commercially important sea bob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Penaeoidea): synthesis of a 5-year study

Population parameters of the shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Heller, 1862) (sex ratio, length-frequency distributions (carapace length, CL), growth, lifespan, size of sexual maturity, spawning and recruitment) were analyzed in a long-term study from January 1998 through June 2003. The data on these parameters were collected and analyzed to test the hypothesis that the main period of juvenile recruitment in the bay coincides with the period of fishery closures currently designated by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources. Monthly collections were conducted along the southeastern Brazilian coast, using a shrimp fishing boat with “double-rig” nets sampling at stations up to 40 m depth. Sex ratios were female-biased only in zones with high reproductive activity such as in stations deeper than 15 m (χ2 test, p<0.05). The mean size of males and females was 15.3 ± 3.1 mm CL and 16.2 ± 4.7 mm CL, respectively, with size at sexual maturity estimates (CL50) of 14.8 mm for males and 15.5 mm for females. Mean growth curves provided estimates of CL∞ = 29.31 mm, k = 0.009/day, t0=−0.25 and CL∞ = 35.33 mm, k = 0.006/day, t0=−0.23 for males and females, respectively, and average lifespans of 1.35 for males and 2.12 years for females. Recruitment and abundances of reproductive females were highly correlated with the environmental factors such as higher water temperature and finer-grained bottom sediment (canonical correlation, r=0.63, p<0.001). The reproductive peaks in February-April 1998, March-May 1999 and February-May 2002 were followed by recruitment peaks in May-July 1998, July-September 1999 and April-June 2002, respectively. Thus, the proposed period of fisheries closure (March to May) does not coincide with the main recruitment periods observed for X. kroyeri.

The symbology of the sea in Lygia Bojunga Nunes's work: a reflection on utopian and dystopian framing

The ambivalent image of the sea is recurrent in Bojunga Nunes’s work. It receives a lot of symbolic meanings in her production, being sometimes a positive and sometimes a negative element. Thus, the sea is used in a utopic way, as a place for pleasure and leisure, and in a dystopic way, as scenery of a rite of passage, which includes the pain and suffering, part of the rite of passage that characterizes the bildungsromans. So, if in some texts the sea assumes a utopic character, being a place of snuggle, security, the ideal to reach, in others it is represented as dystopic, a place of distress, asphyxia and death. In this text we will study the hypothesis that, even in its dark symbolic meaning, in the author’s work the sea is an element of reflection and revelation. Thereby, it assumes metaphorically a sense of magnification of the reader’s expectative, being an element of emancipation. The objective of this text is to present a reflection on the sea’s symbolism on the mentioned texts and its importance for the reader’s formation.

Lifespan and reproductive dynamics of the commercially important sea bob shrimp xiphopenaeus kroyeri (penaeoidea): synthesis of a 5-year study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Biological characterization of the Amazon coral Micrurus spixii snake venom: isolation of a new neurotoxic phospholipase A2

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

BOOK REVIEW of Oceans of Kansas: A Natural History of the Western Interior Sea by Michael J. Everhart

Just as there are seashells on Mt. Everest, there is an exceptional wealth of fossil remains of marine organisms preserved in the chalk of western Kansas. This Cretaceous-aged rock, and the fossils therein, were deposited at a time when a great sea cut northward across the interior of the continent around 85 million years ago, inspiring the provocative title of Everhart's book. The title is true to its subject: documentation of the Cretaceous fossils of western Kansas, their geographic and stratigraphic occurrences, and the inferences that paleontologists can make about how the organisms represented by these fossils may have once lived and interacted with one another.

Dynamics of the Arctic Fox Population on St. Lawrence Island, Bering Sea

English abstract: We hypothesized that the arctic fox, Alopex lagopus (Linnaeus), population on St. Lawrence Island was cyclic and that its fluctuations in size. structure, and productivity were correlated with the relative size of the population of northern voles, Microtus oeconomus Pallas, the primary prey. Based on a nine-year study, we determined that the variations in size of the fox and vole populations were similar, but they both were of low amplitude and not closely correlated. The high pregnancy rate (mean, 86%/yr) and numbers of young conceived (mean, 11.5/pregnancy) did not vary significantly among years, probably because of the consistently abundant and diverse food supply available to the foxes. The age composition of the trappers' catch of foxes each winter also was comparatively stable, but it was closely correlated with the size of the vole population in the previous summer. The survival of the young foxes during the summer probably was dependent on the availability of the voles, The composition of the catch also appeared to be influenced by immigration of faxes from the adjacent continents via the pack ice. French abstract: Nous avons émis I'hypothèse que la population du renard arctique, Alopex lagopus (Linnaeus), sur I'île Saint Lawrence était cyclique el que les fluctuations concernant sa tailIe, sa structure et sa productivité étaient corrélées à la taille relative de la population du campagnol nordique. Microtus oeconomus Pallas, sa principale proie. En nous appuyant sur une étude menée sur neuf ans, nous avons déterminé que les variations dans la taille des populations du renard et du campagnol étaient semblables. mais que toutes deux avaient une faible amplitude et n'étaient pas corrélées de façon étroite. Le taux de grossesse élevé (moyenne 86 p. cent/an) et Ie nombre dc petits conçus (moyenne 11,5/grossesse) ne variaient pas de façon significative au cours des ans, probablement à cause de I'abondance et de la variété de sources de nourriture pour les renards. La composition d'âge des prises des trappeurs était également stable d'un hiver à I'autre, mais elle était corrélée de façon étroite avec la taille de la population dc campagnols au cours de I'été précédent. La survie des renardeaux au cours de I'été dépendait probablement de la disponibilité des campagnols. La composition des prises semblait aussi être influencée par I'immigration des renards venant des terres continentales adjacentes par la voie de la banquise.

Review of: Solving the Mysteries of the Dead Sea Scrolls: New Light on the Bible, by Edward M. Cook

Edward M. Cook's new book makes an excellent addition to the growing list of "introductions" to the Dead Sea Scrolls. Aimed primarily at a Christian lay and clerical audience, it succeeds admirably in leading its readers through the labyrinthine world of Scroll scholarship and controversy. The book divides itself into two uneven parts. In the first part, chapters 1-4, Cook deals with the discovery of the Scrolls in 1947 and the subsequent history of their decipherment and (often delayed) publication. Cook's treatment of this controversial topic is the most fair and evenhanded I have ever read; he has done meticulous research, reading many accounts of the Scrolls, from Edmund Wilson's in the 1950's to the latest journal articles from 1993. The result is a highly readable account of the finding and purchase of the Scrolls, the appointment of an international team of scholars to decipher and publish them, the delays in publication (including the results of the Six Day War in 1967, when most of the Scroll fragments fell into Israeli hands), and the controversy surrounding then editor-in-chief John Strugnell and the release of the photographs in the late 1980's and early 1990's. Cook is objective and fair throughout, but particularly striking is his sympathetic portrayal of the original seven member editorial team.

The effect of Antarctic sea ice on the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere during the southern summer

This study examines the influence of Antarctic sea ice distribution on the large scale circulation of the Southern Hemisphere using a fully coupled GCM where the sea ice submodel is replaced by a climatology of observed extremes in sea ice concentration. Three 150-year simulations were completed for maximum, minimum and average sea ice concentrations and the results for the austral summer (January-March) were compared using the surface temperatures forced by the sea ice distributions as a filter for creating the composite differences. The results indicate that in the austral summer the polar cell expands (contracts) under minimum (maximum) sea ice conditions with corresponding shifts in the midlatitude Ferrell cell. We suggest that this response occurs because sea ice lies in the margin between the polar and midlatitude cells. The polarity of the Southern Hemisphere Annular (SAM) mode is also influenced such that when sea ice is at a minimum (maximum) the polarity of the SAM tends to be negative (positive).