NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS OF OIL PRICING TIME-SERIES: A CASE STUDY

The stochastic nature of oil price fluctuations is investigated over a twelve-year period, borrowing feedback from an existing database (USA Energy Information Administration database, available online). We evaluate the scaling exponents of the fluctuations by employing different statistical analysis methods, namely rescaled range analysis (R/S), scale windowed variance analysis (SWV) and the generalized Hurst exponent (GH) method. Relying on the scaling exponents obtained, we apply a rescaling procedure to investigate the complex characteristics of the probability density functions (PDFs) dominating oil price fluctuations. It is found that PDFs exhibit scale invariance, and in fact collapse onto a single curve when increments are measured over microscales (typically less than 30 days). The time evolution of the distributions is well fitted by a Levy-type stable distribution. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer. Our results also exhibit a degree of multifractality as the PDFs change and converge toward to a Gaussian distribution at the macroscales.

Evidence for a navigational map stretching across the continental US in a migratory songbird

Billions of songbirds migrate several thousand kilometers from breeding to wintering grounds and are challenged with crossing ecological barriers and facing displacement by winds along the route. A satisfactory explanation of long-distance animal navigation is still lacking, partly because of limitations on field-based study. The navigational tasks faced by adults and juveniles differ fundamentally, because only adults migrate toward wintering grounds known from the previous year. Here, we show by radio tracking from small aircraft that only adult, and not juvenile, long-distance migrating white-crowned sparrows rapidly recognize and correct for a continent-wide displacement of 3,700 km from the west coast of North America to previously unvisited areas on the east coast. These results show that the learned navigational map used by adult long-distance migratory songbirds extends at least on a continental scale. The juveniles with less experience rely on their innate program to find their distant wintering areas and continue to migrate in the innate direction without correcting for displacement.

Review and meta-analysis of the short-term effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on food intake

Several short-term studies have investigated the effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on subsequent food intake, although findings have been inconsistent. This work aimed to review all studies, and investigate differences in study outcomes based on methodology. All known studies were identified. Data were abstracted from published studies (n = 7). Details of unpublished studies were gained from investigators/sponsors (n = 5), or were unavailable for reasons of confidentiality (n = 4). Available data were combined using meta-analyses. A combined appetite suppressant effect of the emulsion compared with control was found for test meal intake at approximately 4, 12 and 36 h post-treatment: smallest combined mean difference (random effects model) = 0.53 MJ (95% confidence interval 0.20, 0.86), P < 0.01. However, considerable heterogeneity (variability) between study results was also found (smallest I2 = 94%, P < 0.01), questioning the predictive validity of the above findings. Meta-regression suggested this heterogeneity to be related to differences in the processed nature of the product, treatment dose and in particular year of study (smallest B = 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.06, 1.03, P = 0.04), although again heterogeneity was found. The only consistent finding was a lack of effect on food intake 4 h post-preload in studies conducted after 2003. These results suggest a small but inconsistent appetite suppressant effect of the vegetable oil emulsion. However, due to the large heterogeneity, no definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Mid to late Holocene hydrological change in continental eastern Canada: assessing regional trends from ombrotrophic peat records.

ABSTRACT High resolution records of mid-late Holocene hydro-climatic change are presented from Mer Bleue Bog, eastern Ontario. Past climatic changes in this region have previously been inferred from lake sediments, but rain-fed peatlands can offer additional insights into the spatial and temporal pattern of moisture availability. In this study, reconstructed water table depths are based on a testate amoeba-derived transfer function developed for the region and changes in bog surface wetness are compared with plant macrofossil and peat humification data.

RÉSUMÉ Nous présentons les enregistrements hautes résolutions des variations hydrologique durant la second moitié de l’Holocène pour les tourbières Mer Bleue á l’est de l'Ontario. Précédemment, les changements climatiques de cette région ont été dérivés à partir de prélèvement de sédiments de lac. Mais ils s’avèrent que les tourbières ombrotrophes offrir un éclairage supplémentaire sur les schémas de répartition spatiale et temporelle de la disponibilité de l'humidité. Dans cette étude, des profondeurs reconstruites de nappe phréatique sont basées sur un modèle de function de transfert d’amibes (Arcellinida) et des changements de l’humidité de surface de la tourbière sont comparés avec les macrofossils et au humification de tourbe dans une analyse multi-proxy.

Catalysing open innovation through publicly funded R&D: A Comparison of University and Company-based research centres

Public funding of university and company-based R&D centres of excellence is widespread both in core and more peripheral regions. What is less well-known is whether these R&D centres can catalyse multi-directional, multi-actor and iterative innovation. Based on data from a real-time monitoring study, this article explores the development of 18 R&D centres’ external connections. University-based R&D centres establish more new connections than company-based centres and are more likely to be interacting with small or micro-firms. However, there is a general bias towards links with larger firms; micro, small and medium-sized enterprises also are less likely to be involved in collaborative R&D with research centres than other types of relationships. The results suggest the potential for R&D centres to act as a catalyst for open innovation but emphasise the need to ensure that the focus of the R&D being conducted is relevant to the needs of smaller firms.