Smooth bootstrap methods for analysis of longitudinal data

In analysis of longitudinal data, the variance matrix of the parameter estimates is usually estimated by the 'sandwich' method, in which the variance for each subject is estimated by its residual products. We propose smooth bootstrap methods by perturbing the estimating functions to obtain 'bootstrapped' realizations of the parameter estimates for statistical inference. Our extensive simulation studies indicate that the variance estimators by our proposed methods can not only correct the bias of the sandwich estimator but also improve the confidence interval coverage. We applied the proposed method to a data set from a clinical trial of antibiotics for leprosy.

“Success in (Surviving) Bioscience and Pharmacology” – an eBook to improve the retention of diploma nurses transitioning to a Bachelor of Nursing course

Diploma students transitioning into the NS40 BNursing (BN) course at QUT withdraw from the bioscience and pharmacology units, and leave the university at higher rates than traditional students. The diploma students, entering in second year, have missed out on 2 units of bioscience taught to the traditional students in their first year, and miss out on a 3rd unit of bioscience taught to the traditional students in their 2nd year. Instead the diploma students receive one specialized unit in bioscience only i.e. a bridging unit. As a consequence, the diploma students may not have the depth of bioscience knowledge to be able to successfully study the bridging unit (LSB111) or the pharmacology unit (LSB384). Our plan was to write an eBook which refreshed and reinforced diploma students’ knowledge of bioscience aiming to prepare them with the concepts and terminology, and to build a level of confidence to support their transition to the BN. We have previously developed an intervention associated with reduced attrition of diploma nursing students, and this was our starting point. The study skills part of the initial intervention was addressed in the eBook, by links to the specialist services and resources available from our liaison librarian and academic skills adviser. The introductory bioscience/pharmacology information provided by the previous intervention involved material from standard textbooks. However, we considered this material too difficult for diploma students. Thus, we created simplified diagrams to go with text as part of our eBook. The outcome is an eBook, created and made available to the diploma students via the Community Website: “Surviving Bioscience and Pharmacology”. Using simplified diagrams to illustrate the concise text, definition to explain the concepts, the focus has been on encouraging self-awareness and help-seeking strategies and building students who take responsibility for their learning. All the nursing students in the second semester LSB384 Pharmacology Unit have been surveyed face-to-face to get feedback on their engagement with the eBook resource. The data has not been analysed to date. An important consideration is that the website be evaluated by the diploma students as they come into bioscience in first semester (LSB111), the student population for whom the eBook is primarily intended. To get a good response rate we need to do a face-to-face survey. However, we have not been able to do this, as the co-ordinator of the unit has changed since we started the project, and the present co-ordinator will not allow us access to these students.

Exocrine pancreatic dysfunction in malnourished Australian Aboriginal children

Pancreatic exocrine dysfunction has been frequently recorded in protein-energy malnutrition in underdeveloped countries. In addition, the pancreas requires optimal nutrition for enzyme synthesis and potentially correctable pancreatic enzyme insufficiency may play a role in the continuation of protein-energy malnutrition. This problem has not been previously evaluated in Australian Aborigines. We have applied a screening test for pancreatic dysfunction (human immunoreactive trypsinogen [IRT] assay) to the study of 398 infants (6-36 months) admitted to the Alice Springs Hospital over a 20-month period. All infants were assessed by anthropometric measures and were assigned to to three nutritional groups (normal, moderate or severely malnourished) and two growth groups (stunted or not stunted). Of the 198 infants who had at least a single serum cationic trypsinogen measurement taken, normal values for serum IRT (with confidence limits) were obtained from 57 children, who were normally nourished. IRT levels were significantly correlated with the degree of underweight but there was no correlation with the degree of stunting or age. Mean IRT levels for the moderate and severely underweight groups were significantly greater than the mean for the normal group (P < 0.01). Seventeen children (8.6%) had trypsinogen levels in excess of the 95th percentile for the normally nourished group, reflecting acinar cell damage or ductal obstruction. We conclude that pancreatic dysfunction may be a common and important overlooked factor contributing to ongoing malnutrition and diseases in malnourished Australian Aboriginal children.

Estimating the efficiency of a small beam trawl for sampling tiger prawns Penaeus esculentus and P. semisulcatus in seagrass by removal experiments

The efficiency with which a small beam trawl (1 x 0.5 m mouth) sampled postlarvae and juveniles of tiger prawns Penaeus esculentus and P, semisulcatus at night was estimated in 3 tropical seagrass communities (dominated by Thalassia hemprichii, Syringodium isoetifolium and Enhalus acoroides, respectively) in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia. An area of seagrass (40 x 3 m) was enclosed by a net and the beam trawl was repeatedly hand-hauled over the substrate. Net efficiency (q) was calculated using 4 methods: the unweighted Leslie, weighted Leslie, DeLury and Maximum-likelihood (ML) methods. The Maximum-likelihood is the preferred method for estimating efficiency because it makes the fewest assumptions and is not affected by zero catches. The major difference in net efficiencies was between postlarvae (mean ML q +/- 95% confidence limits = 0.66 +/- 0.16) and juveniles of both species (mean q for juveniles in water less than or equal to 1.0 m deep = 0.47 +/- 0.05), i.e. the beam trawl was more efficient at capturing postlarvae than juveniles. There was little difference in net efficiency for P, esculentus between seagrass types (T, hemprichii versus S. isoetifolium), even though the biomass and morphologies of seagrass in these communities differed greatly (biomasses were 54 and 204 g m(-2), respectively). The efficiency of the net appeared to be the same for juveniles of the 2 species in shallow water, but was lower for juvenile P, semisulcatus at high tide when the water was deeper (1.6 to 1.9 m) (0.35 +/- 0.08). The lower efficiency near the time of high tide is possibly because the prawns are more active at high than low tide, and can also escape above the net. Factors affecting net efficiency and alternative methods of estimating net efficiency are discussed.

Factors potentiating the risk of sudden infant death syndrome associated with the prone position

Background. In several studies the sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) has been significantly associated with sleeping in the prone position. It is not known how the prone position increases the risk of SIDS. Methods. We analyzed data from a case-control study (58 infants with SIDS and 120 control infants) and a prospective cohort study (22 infants with SIDS and 213 control infants) in Tasmania. Interactions were examined in matched analyses with a multiplicative model of interaction. Results. In the case-control study, SIDS was significantly associated with sleeping in the prone position, as compared with other positions (unadjusted odds ratio, 4.5; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.1 to 9.6). The strength of this association was increased among infants who slept on natural-fiber mattresses (P = 0.05), infants who were swaddled (P = 0.09), infants who slept in heated rooms (P = 0.006), and infants who had had a recent illness (P = 0.02). These variables had no significant effect on infants who did not sleep in the prone position. A history of recent illness was significantly associated with SIDS among infants who slept prone (odds ratio, 5.7; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.8 to 19) but not among infants who slept in other positions (odds ratio, 0.83). In the cohort study, the risk of SIDS was greater among infants who slept prone on natural-fiber mattresses (odds ratio, 6.6; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.3 to 33) than among infants who slept prone on other types of mattresses (odds ratio, 1.8). Conclusions. When infants sleep prone, the elevated risk of SIDS is increased by each of four factors: the use of natural-fiber mattresses, swaddling, recent illness, and the use of heating in bedrooms.

Improving Knowledge and Practices in Mango Supply Chains

Mangoes consigned to domestic markets suffered from fruit quality problems from 1997 to 2000. A high incidence of disease breakdown and green-ripe fruit resulted in loss of confidence by marketers, and reduced profits for everyone from grower to retailer. The ‘Better Mangoes’ project was initiated to identify where, and why quality was being lost, and to use this information to improve the knowledge and practices of supply chain businesses.

Agent-based modelling of worker interactions and related impacts on workplace dynamics

This study uses agent based modelling to simulate the worker interactions within a workplace and to investigate how the interactions can have impact on the workplace dynamics. Two new models (Bounded Confidence with Bias model and Relative Agreement with Bias model) are built based on the theoretical foundation of two existing models. A new factor, namely bias, is added into the new models which raises several issues to be studied.

Heparin versus 0.9% sodium chloride intermittent flushing for the prevention of occlusion in long term central venous catheters in infants and children

Background Guidelines and clinical practice for the prevention of complications associated with central venous catheters (CVC) around the world vary greatly. Most institutions recommend the use of heparin to prevent occlusion, however there is debate regarding the need for heparin and evidence to suggest 0.9% sodium chloride (normal saline) may be as effective. The use of heparin is not without risk, may be unnecessary and is also associated with increased cost. Objectives To assess the clinical effects (benefits and harms) of intermittent flushing of heparin versus normal saline to prevent occlusion in long term central venous catheters in infants and children. Search Methods The Cochrane Vascular Trials Search Co-ordinator searched the Specialised Register (last searched April 2015) and the Cochrane Register of Studies (Issue 3, 2015). We also searched the reference lists of retrieved trials. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials that compared the efficacy of normal saline with heparin to prevent occlusion of long term CVCs in infants and children aged up to 18 years of age were included. We excluded temporary CVCs and peripherally inserted central catheters (PICC). Data Collection and Analysis Two review authors independently assessed trial inclusion criteria, trial quality and extracted data. Rate ratios were calculated for two outcome measures - occlusion of the CVC and central line-associated blood stream infection. Other outcome measures included duration of catheter placement, inability to withdraw blood from the catheter, use of urokinase or recombinant tissue plasminogen, incidence of removal or re-insertion of the catheter, or both, and other CVC-related complications such as dislocation of CVCs, other CVC site infections and thrombosis. Main Results Three trials with a total of 245 participants were included in this review. The three trials directly compared the use of normal saline and heparin, however, between studies, all used different protocols for the standard and experimental arms with different concentrations of heparin and different frequency of flushes reported. In addition, not all studies reported on all outcomes. The quality of the evidence ranged from low to very low because there was no blinding, heterogeneity and inconsistency between studies was high and the confidence intervals were wide. CVC occlusion was assessed in all three trials (243 participants). We were able to pool the results of two trials for the outcomes of CVC occlusion and CVC-associated blood stream infection. The estimated rate ratio for CVC occlusion per 1000 catheter days between the normal saline and heparin group was 0.75 (95% CI 0.10 to 5.51, two studies, 229 participants, very low quality evidence). The estimated rate ratio for CVC-associated blood stream infection was 1.48 (95% CI 0.24 to 9.37, two studies, 231 participants; low quality evidence). The duration of catheter placement was reported to be similar between the two study arms, in one study (203 participants). Authors' Conclusions The review found that there was not enough evidence to determine the effects of intermittent flushing of heparin versus normal saline to prevent occlusion in long term central venous catheters in infants and children. Ultimately, if this evidence were available, the development of evidenced-based clinical practice guidelines and consistency of practice would be facilitated.

Australia’s first Allied Health Prescribing Program - exploring participants' perspectives on the study program's learning objectives

BACKGROUND The Queensland University of Technology in collaboration with Queensland Health pioneered development of the Allied Health Prescribing Training Program to assist allied health professionals (AHPs) to competently prescribe medicines within their scope of practice. The study program consisted of two modules: Introduction to Clinical Therapeutics for Prescribers and Prescribing and Quality Use of Medicines. METHODS Pre- and post- surveys were developed for both modules. Key themes explored were understanding and confidence in selecting therapeutic choices for patients. For module 2 the learning objectives for safe and effective prescribing were investigated. Data were collected from participants in weeks one and thirteen of the modules via online surveys. RESULTS In the pre-module survey for the first module, participants had a limited degree of understanding and confidence regarding safe and effective use of medicines and appropriate therapeutic choices for managing patients, particularly for complex patients. This improved significantly in the post-module survey. In the pre-module survey for module 2, participants had a moderate degree of understanding and confidence regarding various prescribing learning objectives (including safe and effective prescribing, professional, legal and ethical aspects, communicating medication orders, prescribing safely in their select areas of practice, prescribing safely for complex patients in their area of practice). This increased significantly in the post-module survey. DISCUSSION This training program was implemented to develop a framework of knowledge and skills for AHPs to undertake a prescribing role. The program delivered an increase in participants’ knowledge in the key prescribing areas; and increased participants’ confidence in prescribing safely for patients and for complex patients in their select practice areas. An important aspect of this program was inclusion of prescribing–related activities under supervision of a designated medical practitioner. In conclusion, this educational program for Queensland Health AHP prescribers was successfully developed and is in the final stages of delivery.

Using simulation techniques to investigate methods to determine resistance of helminths to anthelmintic treatment

The widespread and increasing resistance of internal parasites to anthelmintic control is a serious problem for the Australian sheep and wool industry. As part of control programmes, laboratories use the Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) to determine resistance to anthelmintics. It is important to have confidence in the measure of resistance, not only for the producer planning a drenching programme but also for companies investigating the efficacy of their products. The determination of resistance and corresponding confidence limits as given in anthelmintic efficacy guidelines of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (SCA) is based on a number of assumptions. This study evaluated the appropriateness of these assumptions for typical data and compared the effectiveness of the standard FECRT procedure with the effectiveness of alternative procedures. Several sets of historical experimental data from sheep and goats were analysed to determine that a negative binomial distribution was a more appropriate distribution to describe pre-treatment helminth egg counts in faeces than a normal distribution. Simulated egg counts for control animals were generated stochastically from negative binomial distributions and those for treated animals from negative binomial and binomial distributions. Three methods for determining resistance when percent reduction is based on arithmetic means were applied. The first was that advocated in the SCA guidelines, the second similar to the first but basing the variance estimates on negative binomial distributions, and the third using Wadley’s method with the distribution of the response variate assumed negative binomial and a logit link transformation. These were also compared with a fourth method recommended by the International Co-operation on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Veterinary Medicinal Products (VICH) programme, in which percent reduction is based on the geometric means. A wide selection of parameters was investigated and for each set 1000 simulations run. Percent reduction and confidence limits were then calculated for the methods, together with the number of times in each set of 1000 simulations the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been said to occur. These simulations provide the basis for setting conditions under which the methods could be recommended. The authors show that given the distribution of helminth egg counts found in Queensland flocks, the method based on arithmetic not geometric means should be used and suggest that resistance be redefined as occurring when the upper level of percent reduction is less than 95%. At least ten animals per group are required in most circumstances, though even 20 may be insufficient where effectiveness of the product is close to the cut off point for defining resistance.

Age-related alterations of immunoreactive pancreatic cationic trypsinogen in sera from cystic fibrosis patients with and without pancreatic insufficiency

Serum immunoreactive cationic trypsinogen levels were determined in 99 control subjects and 381 cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. To evaluate the status of the exocrine pancreas all CF patients had previously undergone fecal fat balance studies and/or pancreatic stimulation tests. Three hundred fourteen CF patients had fat malabsorption and/or had inadequate pancreatic enzyme secretion (pancreatic insufficiency) requiring oral pancreatic enzyme supplements with meals. Sixty-seven CF patients did not have fat malabsorption and/or had adequate enzyme secretion (pancreatic sufficiency) and were not receiving pancreatic enzyme supplements with meals. Mean serum trypsinogen in 99 control subjects was 31.4 ± 14.8 /µg/hter (± 2 SD) and levels did not vary with age or sex. In CF infants (< 2 yr) with pancreatic insufficiency, mean serum trypsinogen was significantly above the non-CF values (p < 0.001). Ninety-one percent of the CF infants had elevated levels. Serum trypsinogen values in the pancreatic insuffi ient group declined steeply up to 5 years, reaching subnormal values by age 6. An equation was developed which described these age-related changes very accurately. Only six CF patients with pancreatic insufficiency had serum trypsinogen levels above the 95% confidence limits of this equation. In contrast, there was no age related decline in serum trypsinogen among the CF group with pancreatic sufficiency. Under 7 yr, serum trypsinogen failed to distinguish the two groups. In those over 7 yr of age, however, serum trypsinogen was significantly higher than the CF group with pancreatic insufficiency (p < 0.001), and 93% had values within or above the control range. In conclusion, serum trypsinogen appears to be a useful screening test for CF in infancy. Between 2 and 7 yr of age this test is of little diagnostic value. After 7 yr of age, serum trypsinogen can reliably distinguish between CF patients with and without pancreatic insufficiency.

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Selecting for increased barley grain size

In this study, 120–144 commercial varieties and breeding lines were assessed for grain size attributes including plump grain (>2.8 mm) and retention (>2.5 mm+>2.8 mm). Grain samples were produced from replicated trials at 25 sites across four years. Climatic conditions varied between years as well as between sites. Several of the trial sites were irrigated while the remaining were produced under dryland conditions. A number of the dryland sites suffered severe drought stress. The grain size data was analysed for genetic (G), environmental (E) and genotype by environment (G×E) interactions. All analyses included maturity as a covariate. The genetic effect on grain size was greater than environmental or maturity effects despite some sites suffering terminal moisture stress. The model was used to calculate heritability values for each site used in the study. These values ranged from 89 to 98% for plump grain and 88 to 96% for retention. The results demonstrated that removing the sources of non-heritable variation, such as maturity and field effects, can improve genetic estimates of the retention and plump grain fractions. By partitioning all variance components, and thereby having more robust estimates of genetic differences, plant breeders can have greater confidence in selecting barley genotypes which maintain large, stable grain size across a range of environments.

The genetic effective and adult census size of an Australian population of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus)

This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

Fusion transcript loci share many genomic features with non-fusion loci

Background Fusion transcripts are found in many tissues and have the potential to create novel functional products. Here, we investigate the genomic sequences around fusion junctions to better understand the transcriptional mechanisms mediating fusion transcription/splicing. We analyzed data from prostate (cancer) cells as previous studies have shown extensively that these cells readily undergo fusion transcription. Results We used the FusionMap program to identify high-confidence fusion transcripts from RNAseq data. The RNAseq datasets were from our (N = 8) and other (N = 14) clinical prostate tumors with adjacent non-cancer cells, and from the LNCaP prostate cancer cell line that were mock-, androgen- (DHT), and anti-androgen- (bicalutamide, enzalutamide) treated. In total, 185 fusion transcripts were identified from all RNAseq datasets. The majority (76 %) of these fusion transcripts were ‘read-through chimeras’ derived from adjacent genes in the genome. Characterization of sequences at fusion loci were carried out using a combination of the FusionMap program, custom Perl scripts, and the RNAfold program. Our computational analysis indicated that most fusion junctions (76 %) use the consensus GT-AG intron donor-acceptor splice site, and most fusion transcripts (85 %) maintained the open reading frame. We assessed whether parental genes of fusion transcripts have the potential to form complementary base pairing between parental genes which might bring them into physical proximity. Our computational analysis of sequences flanking fusion junctions at parental loci indicate that these loci have a similar propensity as non-fusion loci to hybridize. The abundance of repetitive sequences at fusion and non-fusion loci was also investigated given that SINE repeats are involved in aberrant gene transcription. We found few instances of repetitive sequences at both fusion and non-fusion junctions. Finally, RT-qPCR was performed on RNA from both clinical prostate tumors and adjacent non-cancer cells (N = 7), and LNCaP cells treated as above to validate the expression of seven fusion transcripts and their respective parental genes. We reveal that fusion transcript expression is similar to the expression of parental genes. Conclusions Fusion transcripts maintain the open reading frame, and likely use the same transcriptional machinery as non-fusion transcripts as they share many genomic features at splice/fusion junctions.