Rules vs. political discretion: evidence from constitutionally guaranteed transfers to local governments in Brazil

Can rules be used to shield public resources from political interference? The Brazilian constitution and national tax code stipulate that revenue sharing transfers to municipal governments be determined by the size of counties in terms of estimated population. In this paper I document that the population estimates which went into the transfer allocation formula for the year 1991 were manipulated, resulting in significant transfer differentials over the entire 1990's. I test whether conditional on county characteristics that might account for the manipulation, center-local party alignment, party popularity and the extent of interparty fragmentation at the county level are correlated with estimated populations in 1991. Results suggest that revenue sharing transfers were targeted at right-wing national deputies in electorally fragmented counties as well as aligned local executives.

On the goodness of fit of Kirk's formula for spread option prices

In this paper we investigate the goodness of fit of the Kirk's approximation formula for spread option prices in the correlated lognormal framework. Towards this end, we use the Malliavin calculus techniques to find an expression for the short-time implied volatility skew of options with random strikes. In particular, we obtain that this skew is very pronounced in the case of spread options with extremely high correlations, which cannot be reproduced by a constant volatility approximation as in the Kirk's formula. This fact agrees with the empirical evidence. Numerical examples are given.

The short arm of the law: judicial institutions and local governance in Brazil

This paper estimates the effect of judicial institutions on governance at the local level in Brazil. Our estimation strategy exploits a unique institutional feature of state judiciary branches which assigns prosecutors and judges to the most populous among contiguous counties forming a judiciary district. As a result of this assignment mechanism there are counties with nearly identical populations, some with and some without local judicial presence, which we exploit to impute counterfactual outcomes. Conditional on observable county characteristics, offenses per civil servant are about 35% lower in counties that have a local seat of the state judiciary. The lower incidence of infractions stems mostly from fewer violations of financial management regulations by local administrators, fewer instances of problems in project execution and project managment, fewer cases of non-existent or ineffective civil society oversight and fewer cases of improper handling of remittances to local residents.

Prime Property Institutions for a Subprime Era: Exploring Innovative Models of Residential Development and Finance

This paper breaks new ground toward contractual and institutional innovation in models of homeownership, equity building, and mortgage enforcement. Inspired by recent developments in the affordable housing sector and in other types of public financing schemes, this paper suggests extending institutional and financial strategies such as timeand place-based division of property rights, conditional subsidies, and credit mediation to alleviate the systemic risks of mortgage foreclosure. Alongside a for-profit shared equity scheme that would be led by local governments, we also outline a private market shared equity model, one of bootstrapping home buying with purchase options.

Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility (namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

The Labor Market Effects of Technology Shocks

We analyze the labor market effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks along the intensive margin (hours worked) and the extensive margin (unemployment). We characterize the dynamic response of unemployment in terms of the job separation and the job finding rate. Labor market adjustments occur along the extensive margin in response to neutral shocks, along the intensive margin in response to investment specific shocks. The job separation rate accounts for a major portion of the impact response of unemployment. Neutral shocks prompt a contemporaneous increase in unemployment because of a sharp rise in the separation rate. This is prolonged by a persistent fall in the job finding rate. Investment specific shocks rise employment and hours worked. Neutral shocks explain a substantial portion of the volatility of unemployment and output; investment specific shocks mainly explain hours worked volatility. This suggests that neutral progress is consistent with Schumpeterian creative destruction, while investment-specific progress operates as in a neoclassical growth model.

U.S. Universities’ Net Returns from Patenting and Licensing: A Quantile Regression Analysis, September 2006

In line with the rights and incentives provided by the Bayh-Dole Act of 1980, U.S. universities have increased their involvement in patenting and licensing activities through their own technology transfer offices. Only a few U.S. universities are obtaining large returns, however, whereas others are continuing with these activities despite negligible or negative returns. We assess the U.S. universities’ potential to generate returns from licensing activities by modeling and estimating quantiles of the distribution of net licensing returns conditional on some of their structural characteristics. We find limited prospects for public universities without a medical school everywhere in their distribution. Other groups of universities (private, and public with a medical school) can expect significant but still fairly modest returns only beyond the 0.9th quantile. These findings call into question the appropriateness of the revenue-generating motive for the aggressive rate of patenting and licensing by U.S. universities.

A importância do sector microcrédito e o perfil do microempresário: Ilha de Santo Antão Cabo Verde

As microempresas desempenham um papel fundamental na promoção do emprego, na inovação, na criação de rendimentos e no desenvolvimento económico e social. Para os países em vias de desenvolvimento, crê-se que a dinamização das microempresas pode ser um instrumento privilegiado de promoção e combate à pobreza, na medida em que esta poderá ser a via para incentivar as camadas mais pobres das populações rurais e urbanas a criarem os seus próprios negócios e a providenciarem os seus próprios rendimentos. A criação e o crescimento das microempresas estão, todavia, condicionados por vários constrangimentos. A inexistência de capital inicial (Start-Up Capital) é apontada na literatura financeira como uma das mais relevantes. O recurso ao capital externo, como fonte de financiamento, dependerá, por sua vez, de vários factores. O presente estudo foi realizado em Santo Antão, a ilha mais a norte e a mais montanhosa do Arquipélago de Cabo Verde. O sector micro crédito chama atenção pelo facto de ser um instrumento de importância primordial para Cabo Verde e, particularmente, para a ilha de Santo Antão que possui uma estrutura económica e social muito vulnerável o que nos leva a compreender melhor, o funcionamento das microempresas, instaladas nos três municípios da Ilha (Paul, Ribeira Grande e Porto Novo). Ao longo do estudo definimos o perfil sócio económico do micro empresário Santantonense, com o objectivo de compreender e quantificar o contributo do sector para o desenvolvimento empresarial da ilha, sem esquecer os constrangimentos e dificuldades que se colocam aos micros empresários na procura de financiamento. O processo de recolha de informação foi efectuado com recurso a pesquisas de campo, a partir da elaboração e aplicação de entrevistas de uma forma semi-estruturada, no sentido de identificar as principais características/perfil do empresário. Os dados recolhidos pelas entrevistas têm por base uma apreciação crítica da gestão para melhor compreender e comparar as fragilidades existentes e analisar a capacidade de sucesso dos micros empresários. A configuração da actividade económica foi feita com base na análise quantitativa e qualitativa, dos dados obtidos na aplicação dos questionários. De igual modo, analisamos e comparamos os casos de sucesso e insucesso nas microempresas em estudo, casos de sucesso no que diz respeito aos benefícios de micro créditos para a redução da pobreza e do desemprego, de criação do auto-emprego, e da formação/informação aos micros empresários santantonenses. Nos casos de insucesso analisamos as causas que estiveram na sua origem assim como as consequências daí advenientes. Uma das constatações do estudo, como se verá pela análise dos dados, é que o micro empresário Santantonense, possui um baixo nível de escolaridade e que na sua maioria são mulheres. Um outro resultado evidenciado pelo estudo, é que há uma necessidade da política pública de desenvolvimento no sentido de definição de incentivos à criação e à promoção de micro negócios, atendendo às características demográficas e às necessidades específicas dos beneficiários. Micro enterprises perform a fundamental component in promoting employment, innovation, and earnings-generation and in socio-economic development. For countries en route to development, the belief is that the dynamic engine of the micro enterprises could be a privileged instrument to promote in the battle against poverty, in the hope that this could be the venue to incentivize the poorest of the rural and urban populations to create their own businesses and forecast their own earnings. The creation and the growth of micro enterprises is, however, conditional upon various constraints. The inexistence of initial capital is cited in financial literature as one of the more important. To resort to external capital as a financing source, is itself dependent on various factors. The current study was conducted in Santo Antão, the most northern and mountainous island in the Archipelago of Cape Verde. The micro credit´s sector calls attention to the fact that it is an essential instrument in Cape Verde, particularly in the island of Santo Antão which has an economic and social structure extremely vulnerable, leading us to a better understanding of how micro enterprises operate in the three municipalities of the Island (Paul, Ribeira Grande and Porto Novo). During the course of the study we defined the socio-economic character of the micro entrepreneur Santantonense, with the goal of understanding and quantifying the sector´s contribution to the Island´s entrepreneurial development, keeping in mind the contraints and difficulties that confront the entrepreneurs when seeking financing. The process for gathering the information was performed through field research, beginning with elaboration and application of interviews, designed to identify the entrepreneur´s major characteristics and the importance of micro credit for the island of Santo Antão. The data gathered through the interviews have un underlying basic and critic appreciation of management for a better understanding and comparing the existing fragilities and for analyzing the micro entrepreneurs´ capacity to succeed. The configuration of economic activities was designed based on quantitative and qualitative analysis from data obtained from the questionnaires. Likewise, we analyzed and compared the success and non-success cases of the micro enterprises in the study, success cases with respect to the benefits of micro credit in reducing poverty and unemployment, creation of self-employment, and the education/information for the micro entrepreneurs of Santo Antão. In the non-success cases we analyzed the original causes as well as the impending consequences. One of the study´s contentions, as the data analysis shows, is that micro entrepreneur of Santo Antão has a low level of education with the majority of them being women. In addition the study shows that there is a need for a public discourse in terms of defining and developing incentives for creating and promoting micro businesses given the demographic characteristics and the specific necessities of the beneficiaries.

Medidas de Perda na Avalia ção do Desempenho de Fundos de Investimentos

Uma das medidas de performance mais utilizada e a medida de Sharpe. A sua utiliza c~ao e inadequada quando as rendibilidades n~ao seguem uma distribui c~ao normal, assim originou o aparecimento de uma variedade de medidas alternativas. Em fun c~ao disso, surge ent~ao a quest~ao de saber se essas medidas alternativas produzem rankings signi cativamente diferentes da que se obt em com a medida de Sharpe. Apesar da exist^encia de muitos estudos emp ricos sobre esta problem atica a resposta n~ao e consensual. Neste trabalho fez-se a compara c~ao entre o ranking produzido pela medida de Sharpe e as algumas medidas alternativas, as que se baseiam no Low Partial Moments (Omega, Sortino, Kappa3 e Upside Potential Ratio) e, as que se baseiam no VaR - Value-at-Risk (ERV - Excess Return on VaR, ERMV - Excess Return on Modi ed VaR, ERCV - Excess Return on Conditional VaR e ERV? - Excess Return com VaR hist orico). Utilizando 26 fundos de investimentos norte-americanos, com registo di ario das rendibilidades para o per odo de Janeiro 2000 a Setembro 2009, encontrou-se um elevado coe ciente de correla c~ao de Spearman e de Kendall entre a medida de Sharpe e as alternativas, bem como as alternativas entre si, excepto para Upside Potential Ratio que os coe cientes s~ao relativamente baixos. Os resultados permitem concluir que existe uma medida que proporciona ordena c~oes diferentes.

Inducible inactivation of Notch1 causes nodular regenerative hyperplasia in mice

Résumé : La découverte que des mutations du gène humain Jagged 1 (JAG1) sont la cause du Syndrome d'Alagille, indique que la voie de signalisation Notch joue un rôle prépondérant dans l'homéostasie des canaux biliaires. L'analyse fonctionnelle de cette voie de signalisation est rendue difficile par le fait que les mutations ciblées des gènes : Jagged1, Notch1 ou Notch2 présentent un phénotype létal. Dans un précédent travail, nous avions généré une souris permettant l'inactivation de Notch1 de manière inductible en combinant un transgéne inductible par l'interféron de la Cre-recombinase et le gène Notch1 flanqué de deux séquence loxP. Nous avons utilisé cette souris knock-out conditionnelle afin d'étudier le rôle de la voie de signalisation de Notch1 dans la prolifération et la différentiation cellulaire hépatique. La délétion de Notch1 ne conduit pas à une diminution du nombre des canaux biliaires, mais de manière surprenante, l'absence de Notch1 induit une prolifération continue des hépatocytes. En conclusion, en quelques semaines après l'inactivation de Notch1 les souris développent une hyperplasie nodulaire régénérative, sans modification vasculaire dans le foie. Abstract: The discovery that the human Jagged1 gene (JAG1) is the Alagille syndrome disease gene indicated that Notch signaling has an important role in bile duct homeostasis. The functional study of this signaling pathway has been difficult because mice with targeted mutations in Jagged1, Notch1, or Notch2 have an embryonic lethal phenotype. We have previously generated mice with inducible Notch1 disruption using an interferon-inducible Cre-recombinase transgene in combination with the loxP flanked Notch1 gene. We used this conditional Notch1 knockout mouse model to investigate the role of Notch1 signaling in liver cell proliferation and differentiation. Deletion of Notch1 did not result in bile duct paucity, but, surprisingly, resulted in a continuous proliferation of hepatocytes. In conclusion, within weeks after Notch1 inactivation, the mice developed nodular regenerative hyperplasia without vascular changes in the liver.

Medidas de Perda na Avaliacão do Desempenho de Fundos de Investimentos

Uma das medidas de performance mais utilizada e a medida de Sharpe. A sua utilizacão e inadequada quando as rendibilidades não seguem uma distribuicão normal, assim originou o aparecimento de uma variedade de medidas alternativas. Em fun c~ao disso, surge então a questão de saber se essas medidas alternativas produzem rankings signi cativamente diferentes da que se obt em com a medida de Sharpe. Apesar da existencia de muitos estudos emp ricos sobre esta problem atica a resposta não e consensual. Neste trabalho fez-se a comparacão entre o ranking produzido pela medida de Sharpe e as algumas medidas alternativas, as que se baseiam no Low Partial Moments (Omega, Sortino, Kappa3 e Upside Potential Ratio) e, as que se baseiam no VaR - Value-at-Risk (ERV - Excess Return on VaR, ERMV - Excess Return on Modi ed VaR, ERCV - Excess Return on Conditional VaR e ERV? - Excess Return com VaR hist orico). Utilizando 26 fundos de investimentos norte-americanos, com registo di ario das rendibilidades para o per odo de Janeiro 2000 a Setembro 2009, encontrou-se um elevado coe ciente de correla c~ao de Spearman e de Kendall entre a medida de Sharpe e as alternativas, bem como as alternativas entre si, excepto para Upside Potential Ratio que os coe cientes s~ao relativamente baixos. Os resultados permitem concluir que existe uma medida que proporciona ordena c~oes diferentes.

Campaign effects in direct-democratic votes in Switzerland

The purpose of this article is to analyse the conditions under which referendum campaigns have an impact on voting choices. Based on a model of opinion formation that integrates both campaign effects and partisan effects, we argue that campaign effects vary according to the context of the popular vote (size and type of conflict among the party elite and intensity and direction of the referendum campaign). We test our hypotheses with two-step estimations for hierarchical models on data covering 25 popular votes on foreign, European and immigration policy in Switzerland. Our results show strong campaign effects and they suggest that their strength and nature are indeed highly conditional on the context of the vote: the type of party coalition pre-structures the patterns of individual voting choices, campaign effects are higher when the campaign is highly intense and they are more symmetric when it is balanced.

Parameterized expectations approach; Some practical issues

We discuss some practical issues related to the use of the Parameterized Expectations Approach (PEA) for solving non-linear stochastic dynamic models with rational expectations. This approach has been applied in models of macroeconomics, financial economics, economic growth, contracttheory, etc. It turns out to be a convenient algorithm, especially when there is a large number of state variables and stochastic shocks in the conditional expectations. We discuss some practical issues having to do with the application of the algorithm, and we discuss a Fortran program for implementing the algorithm that is available through the internet.We discuss these issues in a battery of six examples.

Equilibrium asset prices and savings of heterogeneous agents in the presence of incomplete markets and portfolio constraints

We study the quantitative properties of a dynamic general equilibrium model in which agents face both idiosyncratic and aggregate income risk, state-dependent borrowing constraints that bind in some but not all periods and markets are incomplete. Optimal individual consumption-savings plans and equilibrium asset prices are computed under various assumptions about income uncertainty. Then we investigate whether our general equilibrium model with incomplete markets replicates two empirical observations: the high correlation between individual consumption and individual income, and the equity premium puzzle. We find that, when the driving processes are calibrated according to the data from wage income in different sectors of the US economy, the results move in the direction of explaining these observations, but the model falls short of explaining the observed correlations quantitatively. If the incomes of agents are assumed independent of each other, the observations can be explained quantitatively.

The HP-filter in cross-country comparisons

Many empirical studies of business cycles have followed the practise ofapplying the Hodrick-Prescott filter for cross-country comparisons. Thestandard procedure is to set the weight \lambda, which determines the'smoothness' of the trend equal to 1600. We show that if this value isused for against common wisdom about business cycles. As an example, weshow that the long recession occurred inSpain between 1975 and 1985 goesunnotoced by the HP filter. We propose a method for adjusting \lambda byreinterpreting the HP-filter as the solution to a constrained minimizationproblem. We argue that the common practice of fixing \lambda across countriesamounts to chankging the constraints on trend variability across countries.Our proposed method is easy to apply, retains all the virtues of thestandard HP-filter and when applied to Spanish data the results are inthe line with economic historian's view. Applying the method to a numberof OECD countries we find that, with the exception of Spain, Italy andJapan, the standard choice of \lambda=1600 is sensible.