Um modelo "time-varying markov-Switching" para crescimento econômico e algoritmo de estimação

Este trabalho elabora um modelo para investigação do padrão de variação do crescimento econômico, entre diferentes países e através do tempo, usando um framework Markov- Switching com matriz de transição variável. O modelo desenvolvido segue a abordagem de Pritchett (2003), explicando a dinâmica do crescimento a partir de uma coleção de diferentes estados – cada qual com seu sub-modelo e padrão de crescimento – através dos quais os países oscilam ao longo do tempo. A matriz de transição entre os diferentes estados é variante no tempo, dependendo de variáveis condicionantes de cada país e a dinâmica de cada estado é linear. Desenvolvemos um método de estimação generalizando o Algoritmo EM de Diebold et al. (1993) e estimamos um modelo-exemplo em painel com a matriz de transição condicionada na qualidade das instituições e no nível de investimento. Encontramos três estados de crescimento: crescimento estável, ‘milagroso’ e estagnação - virtualmente coincidentes com os três primeiros de Jerzmanowski (2006). Os resultados mostram que a qualidade das instituições é um importante determinante do crescimento de longo prazo enquanto o nível de investimento tem papel diferenciado: contribui positivamente em países com boa qualidade de instituições e tem papel pouco relevante para os países com instituições medianas ou piores.

A dynamic model of price competition with switching and search costs

Em modelos de competição de preços, somente um custo de procura positivo por parte do consumidor não gera equilíbrio com dispersão de preços. Já modelos dinâmicos de switching cost consistentemente geram este fenômeno bastante documentado para preços no varejo. Embora ambas as literaturas sejam vastas, poucos modelos tentaram combinar as duas fricções em um só modelo. Este trabalho apresenta um modelo dinâmico de competição de preços em que consumidores idênticos enfrentam custos de procura e de switching. O equilíbrio gera dispersão nos preços. Ainda, como os consumidores são obrigados a se comprometer com uma amostra fixa de firmas antes dos preços serem definidos, somente dois preços serão considerados antes de cada compra. Este resultado independe do tamanho do custo de procura individual do consumidor.

A time-varying markov-switching model for economic growth

This paper investigates economic growth’s pattern of variation across and within countries using a Time-Varying Transition Matrix Markov-Switching Approach. The model developed follows the approach of Pritchett (2003) and explains the dynamics of growth based on a collection of different states, each of which has a sub-model and a growth pattern, by which countries oscillate over time. The transition matrix among the different states varies over time, depending on the conditioning variables of each country, with a linear dynamic for each state. We develop a generalization of the Diebold’s EM Algorithm and estimate an example model in a panel with a transition matrix conditioned on the quality of the institutions and the level of investment. We found three states of growth: stable growth, miraculous growth, and stagnation. The results show that the quality of the institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth, whereas the level of investment has varying roles in that it contributes positively in countries with high-quality institutions but is of little relevance in countries with medium- or poor-quality institutions.

A dynamic model of simultaneous price competition with switching and search costs

Esse artigo apresenta um modelo dinâmico de competição em precos que incorpora tanto custos de procura quanto custos de switching e onde que as decisões do consumidor e das firmas são simultâneas. Dadas as hipóteses feitas n ós veremos que este modelo possui equilí brio. As principais propriedades do equil íbrio deste modelo são: Se os custos de procura forem baixos o suficiente, em equilí brio o consumidor vai procurar todas as firmas no mercado enquanto que o aumento dos custos de procura vai reduzir a propor cão de firmas que o consumidor busca. Um resultado contraintuitivo e que os pre cos esperados pagos pelo consumidor normalmente decresce em nossas computa cões numéricas do equil íbrio quando os custos de procura aumentam. Enquanto que aumentar os custos de switching tamb ém vai produzir o resultado contraituitivo que as firmas unmatched vão diminuir suas ofertas de modo a atrair o consumidor.

Analysis of contagion from the constant conditional correlation model with Markov regime switching

Over the last decades, the analysis of the transmissions of international nancial events has become the subject of many academic studies focused on multivariate volatility models volatility. The goal of this study is to evaluate the nancial contagion between stock market returns. The econometric approach employed was originally presented by Pelletier (2006), named Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC). This methodology involves the combination of Constant Conditional Correlation Model (CCC) proposed by Bollerslev (1990) with Markov Regime Switching Model suggested by Hamilton and Susmel (1994). A modi cation was made in the original RSDC model, the introduction of the GJR-GARCH model formulated in Glosten, Jagannathan e Runkle (1993), on the equation of the conditional univariate variances to allow asymmetric e ects in volatility be captured. The database was built with the series of daily closing stock market indices in the United States (SP500), United Kingdom (FTSE100), Brazil (IBOVESPA) and South Korea (KOSPI) for the period from 02/01/2003 to 09/20/2012. Throughout the work the methodology was compared with others most widespread in the literature, and the model RSDC with two regimes was de ned as the most appropriate for the selected sample. The set of results provide evidence for the existence of nancial contagion between markets of the four countries considering the de nition of nancial contagion from the World Bank called very restrictive. Such a conclusion should be evaluated carefully considering the wide diversity of de nitions of contagion in the literature.

Mudanças de regimes na função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil : uma abordagem utilizando Markov Regime Switching

O presente trabalho busca identificar a ocorrência, duração e probabilidades de transição de diferentes regimes na condução da política monetária no Brasil a partir da implantação do sistema de metas de inflação em 1999. A estimação da função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil é realizada a partir de uma Regra de Taylor forward looking para uma economia aberta, onde utilizamos a metodologia Markov Regime Switching para caracterizar de forma endógena os diferentes regimes de política monetária. Os resultados obtidos indicam a ocorrência de três regimes distintos de política monetária a partir da implantação do sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil. O primeiro regime ocorre durante 21% do período estudado e se caracteriza pela não aderência ao princípio de Taylor e discricionariedade da autoridade monetária, que reage demonstrando maior sensibilidade ao hiato do produto. O segundo regime é o de maior duração, ocorre durante 67% do período estudado, e se caracteriza pela aderência ao princípio de Taylor e equilíbrio nos pesos atribuídos pelo Banco Central tanto ao hiato do produto como ao desvio das expectativas de inflação com relação à meta. Já o terceiro regime ocorre durante 12% do período estudado e se caracteriza não somente pela aderência ao princípio de Taylor, como também por uma maior aversão ao desvio das expectativas de inflação com relação à meta.

Dip financing of financially distressed companies in Brazil – the conditions provided by the brazilian bankruptcy law act as real incentives for dip lenders as in chapter 11 of the American bankruptcy code?

O objeto deste trabalho é a compreensão do financiamento de empresas em crise, mais especificamente, o financiamento concedido após o pedido de recuperação judicial, como forma de permitir que a empresa saia da situação de crise e retorne à condição de normalidade. Para tanto, nos apropriando do termo cunhado pela doutrina norte-americana, para fazer referência ao aporte de recursos em empresas em dificuldade, utilizaremos o termo DIP financing ou financiamento DIP. Para uma compreensão adequada do objeto, é necessário que entendamos a origem do DIP financing nos Estados Unidos e como é a regulação norte-americana sobre a matéria atualmente. O segundo passo será avaliar a possibilidade de aplicação da mesma estrutura de aporte de recursos no Brasil. Ao estudarmos a origem desse mecanismo nos Estados Unidos, veremos os problemas que surgiram ao longo dos anos e como foram superados jurisprudencialmente e doutrinariamente para que o financiamento DIP se consolidasse como uma das formas de aporte de capital em empresas em crise, culminando no desenvolvimento de uma verdadeira indústria de crédito às empresas em dificuldade. Uma análise dos problemas enfrentados pelo sistema falimentar americano nos levará a hipótese de que, a menos que sejam afirmados mecanismos que assegurem a quem concede o financiamento após o pedido de recuperação judicial, uma super prioridade no recebimento após a recuperação judicial, será possível o desenvolvimento de um mercado de DIP financing no Brasil.

Novel zero-current-switching PWM converters

This paper presents a new family of pulsewidth-modulated (PWM) converters, featuring soft commutation of the semiconductors at zero current (ZC) in the transistors and zero voltage (ZV) in the rectifiers, Besides operating at constant frequency and with reduced commutation losses, these new converters have output characteristics similar to the hard-switching-PWM counterpart, which means that there is no circulating reactive energy that would cause large conduction losses, the new family of zero-current-switching (ZCS)-PWM converters is suitable for high-power applications using insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBT's). The advantages of the new ZCS-PWM boast converter employing IGBT's, rated at 1.6 kW and operating at 20 kHz, are presented, This new ZCS operation can reduce the average total power dissipation in the semiconductors practically by half, when compared with the hard-switching method, This new ZCS-PWM boost converter is suitable for high-power applications using Ie;BT's in power-factor correction, the principle of operation, theoretical analysis, and experimental results of the new ZCS-PWM boost converter are provided in this paper to verify the performance of this new family of converters.

Power Factor Correction Boost Converter Based on the Three-State Switching Cell

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Stress Analysis in Platform-Switching Implants: A 3-Dimensional Finite Element Study

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the platform-switching technique on stress distribution in implant, abutment, and pen-implant tissues, through a 3-dimensional finite element study. Three 3-dimensional mandibular models were fabricated using the Solid Works 2006 and InVesalius software. Each model was composed of a bone block with one implant 10 mm long and of different diameters (3.75 and 5.00 mm). The UCLA abutments also ranged in diameter from 5.00 mm to 4.1 mm. After obtaining the geometries, the models were transferred to the software FEMAP 10.0 for pre- and postprocessing of finite elements to generate the mesh, loading, and boundary conditions. A total load of 200 N was applied in axial (0 degrees), oblique (45 degrees), and lateral (90) directions. The models were solved by the software NeiNastran 9.0 and transferred to the software FEMAP 10.0 to obtain the results that were visualized through von Mises and maximum principal stress maps. Model A (implants with 3.75 mm/abutment with 4.1 mm) exhibited the highest area of stress concentration with all loadings (axial, oblique, and lateral) for the implant and the abutment. All models presented the stress areas at the abutment level and at the implant/abutment interface. Models B (implant with 5.0 mm/abutment with 5.0 mm) and C (implant with 5.0 mm/abutment with 4.1 mm) presented minor areas of stress concentration and similar distribution pattern. For the cortical bone, low stress concentration was observed in the pen-implant region for models B and C in comparison to model A. The trabecular bone exhibited low stress that was well distributed in models B and C. Model A presented the highest stress concentration. Model B exhibited better stress distribution. There was no significant difference between the large-diameter implants (models B and C).

Photoelastic Analysis of the Influence of Platform Switching on Stress Distribution in Implants

The aim of this study was to evaluate the stress distribution of platform switching implants using a photoelastic method. Three models were constructed of the photoelastic resin PL-2, with a single implant and a screw-retained implant-supported prosthesis. These models were Model A, platform 5.0 mm/abutment 4.1 mm; Model B, platform 4.1 mm/abutment 4.1 mm; and Model C, platform 5.00 mm/abutment 5.00 mm. Axial and oblique (45 degrees) loads of 100 N were applied using a Universal Testing Machine (EMIC DL 3000). Images were photographed with a digital camera and visualized with software (AdobePhotoshop) to facilitate the qualitative analysis. The highest stress concentrations were observed at the apical third of the 3 models. With the oblique load, the highest stress concentrations were located at the implant apex, opposite the load application. Stress concentrations decreased in the cervical region of Model A (platform switching), and Models A (platform switching) and C (conventional/wide-diameter) displayed similar stress magnitudes. Finally, Model B (conventional/regular diameter) displayed the highest stress concentrations of the models tested.

Platform Switching: Biomechanical Evaluation Using Three-Dimensional Finite Element Analysis

Purpose: The objective of this study was to evaluate, using three-dimensional finite element analysis (3D FEA), the stress distribution in peri-implant bone tissue, implants, and prosthetic components of implant-supported single crowns with the use of the platform-switching concept. Materials and Methods: Three 3D finite element models were created to replicate an external-hexagonal implant system with peri-implant bone tissue in which three different implant-abutment configurations were represented. In the regular platform (RP) group, a regular 4.1-mm-diameter abutment (UCLA) was connected to regular 4.1-mm-diameter implant. The platform-switching (PS) group was simulated by the connection of a wide implant (5.0 mm diameter) to a regular 4.1-mm-diameter UCLA abutment. In the wide-platform (WP) group, a 5.0-mm-diameter UCLA abutment was connected to a 5.0-mm-diameter implant. An occlusal load of 100 N was applied either axially or obliquely on the models using ANSYS software. Results: Both the increase in implant diameter and the use of platform switching played roles in stress reduction. The PS group presented lower stress values than the RP and WP groups for bone and implant. In the peri-implant area, cortical bone exhibited a higher stress concentration than the trabecular bone in all models and both loading situations. Under oblique loading, higher intensity and greater distribution of stress were observed than under axial loading. Platform switching reduced von Mises (17.5% and 9.3% for axial and oblique loads, respectively), minimum (compressive) (19.4% for axial load and 21.9% for oblique load), and maximum (tensile) principal stress values (46.6% for axial load and 26.7% for oblique load) in the peri-implant bone tissue. Conclusion: Platform switching led to improved biomechanical stress distribution in peri-implant bone tissue. Oblique loads resulted in higher stress concentrations than axial loads for all models. Wide-diameter implants had a large influence in reducing stress values in the implant system. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2011;26:482-491

Short Implant to Support Maxillary Restorations: Bone Stress Analysis Using Regular and Switching Platform

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Implant Platform Switching: Biomechanical Approach Using Two-Dimensional Finite Element Analysis

In implant therapy, a peri-implant bone resorption has been noticed mainly in the first year after prosthesis insertion. This bone remodeling can sometimes jeopardize the outcome of the treatment, especially in areas in which short implants are used and also in aesthetic cases. To avoid this occurrence, the use of platform switching (PS) has been used. This study aimed to evaluate the biomechanical concept of PS with relation to stress distribution using two-dimensional finite element analysis. A regular matching diameter connection of abutment-implant (regular platform group [RPG]) and a PS connection (PS group [PSG]) were simulated by 2 two-dimensional finite element models that reproduced a 2-piece implant system with peri-implant bone tissue. A regular implant (prosthetic platform of 4.1 mm) and a wide implant (prosthetic platform of 5.0 mm) were used to represent the RPG and PSG, respectively, in which a regular prosthetic component of 4.1 mm was connected to represent the crown. A load of 100 N was applied on the models using ANSYS software. The RPG spreads the stress over a wider area in the peri-implant bone tissue (159 MPa) and the implant (1610 MPa), whereas the PSG seems to diminish the stress distribution on bone tissue (34 MPa) and implant (649 MPa). Within the limitation of the study, the PS presented better biomechanical behavior in relation to stress distribution on the implant but especially in the bone tissue (80% less). However, in the crown and retention screw, an increase in stress concentration was observed.

Regular and Platform Switching: Bone Stress Analysis Varying Implant Type

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)