CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN VULNERABLE CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MGETA, TANZANIA

Increased occurrence of drought and dry spells during the growing season have resulted in increased interest in protection of tropical water catchment areas. In Mgeta, a water catchment area in the Uluguru Mountains in Tanzania, water used for vegetable and fruit production is provided through canals from the Uluguru South Forest Reserve. The clearing of forest land for cultivation in the steep slopes in the area is causing severe land degradation, which is threatening the water catchment area, livelihoods, and food security of the local communities, as well as the major population centers in the lowlands. In this paper, the economic performance of a traditional cropping-livestock system with East African (EA)-goats and pigs and extensive vegetable production is compared with a more sustainable and environmentally friendly crop-dairy goat production system. A linear programming (LP) crop-livestock model, maximizing farm income considering the environmental constraints in the area was applied for studying the economic performance of dairy goats in the production system. The model was worked out for the rainy and dry seasons and the analysis was conducted for a basic scenario representing the current situation, based on the variability in the 30 years period from 1982-2012, and in a scenario of both lower crop yields and increased crop variability due to climate change. Data obtained from a sample of 60 farmers that were interviewed using a questionnaire was used to develop and parameterize the model. The study found that in the steep slopes of the area, a crop-dairy goat system with extensive use of grass and multipurpose trees (MPTs) would do better than the traditional vegetable gardening with the EA goat production system. The crop-dairy goat system was superior both in the basic and in a climate change scenario since the yield variation of the grass and MPTs system was less affected compared to vegetable crops due to more tree cover and the use of perennial grasses. However, the goat milk production in the area was constrained by inadequate feeding and lack of an appropriate breeding program. Hence, farmers should enhance goat milk production by supplementing with more concentrate feed and by implementing goat-breeding principles. Moreover, policy measures to promote such a development are briefly discussed.

The Potential of Tariff Policy for Climate Change Mitigation: Legal and Economic Analysis

This paper addresses a potential role that tariffs and tariff policy can play in encouraging countries to take part in a multilateral effort to mitigate climate change. It begins by assessing whether increasing tariffs on products from energy intensive or polluting industries amounts to a violation of WTO rules and whether protectionism in this case can be differentiated from genuine environmental concerns. It then argues that while lowering tariffs for environmental goods can serve as a carrot to promote dissemination of cleaner technologies, tariff deconsolidation is a legitimate stick to encourage polluting countries to move towards an international climate agreement. The paper further explores this view by undertaking a partialequilibrium simulation analysis to examine the impact of a unilateral unit increase in tariffs on the imports of the most carbon-intensive products from countries not committed to climate polices. Our results suggest that the committed importing countries would have to raise their tariffs only slightly to effect a significant decline in the imports of these products from the non-committed countries. For instance, a unit increase in the simple average applied tariffs on the imports of these carbon-intensive products in 2005 from our sample of non-committed exporting countries would reduce the imports of these products by an average 32.6% in Australia, 178% in Canada, 195% in the EU, 271% in Japan and 62% in the US, therebysuggesting the effectiveness of such a measure in pushing countries towards a global climate policy.

Rapid portable GC-MS analysis for on-site screening of phytochemical leaf oils in an Australian Native Botanic Garden.

2016

Changes in the storage and sink of carbon dioxide in subsurface atmospheres controlled by climate-driven processes: the case of the Ojo Guareña karst system

A comprehensive environmental monitoring program was conducted in the Ojo Guareña cave system (Spain), one of the longest cave systems in Europe, to assess the magnitude of the spatiotemporal changes in carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in the cave–soil–atmosphere profile. The key climate-driven processes involved in gas exchange, primarily gas diffusion and cave ventilation due to advective forces, were characterized. The spatial distributions of both processes were described through measurements of CO2 and its carbon isotopic signal (δ13C[CO2]) from exterior, soil and cave air samples analyzed by cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). The trigger mechanisms of air advection (temperature or air density differences or barometric imbalances) were controlled by continuous logging systems. Radon monitoring was also used to characterize the changing airflow that results in a predictable seasonal or daily pattern of CO2 concentrations and its carbon isotopic signal. Large daily oscillations of CO2 levels, ranging from 680 to 1900 ppm day−1 on average, were registered during the daily oscillations of the exterior air temperature around the cave air temperature. These daily variations in CO2 concentration were unobservable once the outside air temperature was continuously below the cave temperature and a prevailing advective-renewal of cave air was established, such that the daily-averaged concentrations of CO2 reached minimum values close to atmospheric background. The daily pulses of CO2 and other tracer gases such as radon (222Rn) were smoothed in the inner cave locations, where fluctuation of both gases was primarily correlated with medium-term changes in air pressure. A pooled analysis of these data provided evidence that atmospheric air that is inhaled into dynamically ventilated caves can then return to the lower troposphere as CO2-rich cave air.

Microsatellite analysis of pacu broodstocks used in the stocking program of Paranapanema River, Brazil

O monitoramento da diversidade genética é fundamental em um programa de repovoamento. Avaliouse a diversidade genética de pacu Piaractus mesopotamicus (Holmberg, 1887) em duas estações de piscicultura em Andirá -Paraná, Brasil, utilizadas no programa de repovoamento do Rio Paranapanema. Foram amplificados seis loci microssatélite para avaliar 60 amostras de nadadeira. O estoque de reprodutores B apresentou maior número de alelos e heterozigose (alelos: 22 e H O: 0,628) que o estoque de reprodutores A (alelos: 21 e H O: 0,600). Alelos com baixos níveis de frequência foram observados nos dois estoques. Os coeficientes positivos de endogamia no locus Pme2 (estoque A: F IS = 0,30 e estoque B: F IS = 0,20), Pme5 (estoque B: F IS = 0,15), Pme14 (estoque A: F IS = 0,07) e Pme28 (estoque A: F IS = 0,24 e estoque B: F IS = 0,20), indicaram deficiência de heterozigotos. Foi detectada a presença de um alelo nulo no lócus Pme2. As estimativas negativas nos loci Pme4 (estoque A: F IS = -0,43 e estoque B: F IS= -0,37), Pme5 (estoque A: F IS = - 0,11), Pme14 (estoque B: F IS = - 0,15) e Pme32 (estoque A: F IS = - 0,93 e estoque B: F IS = - 0,60) foram indicativas de excesso de heterozigotos. Foi evidenciado desequilíbrio de ligação e riqueza alélica baixa só no estoque A. A diversidade genética de Nei foi alta nos dois estoques. A distância (0,085) e identidade (0,918) genética mostraram similaridade entre os estoques, o qual reflete uma possível origem comum. 6,05% da variância genética total foi devida a diferenças entre os estoques. Foi observado um recente efeito gargalo nos dois estoques. Os resultados indicaram uma alta diversidade genética nos estoques de reprodutores e baixa diferenciação genética entre eles, o que foi causado pelo manejo reprodutivo das pisciculturas, redução do tamanho populacional e intercâmbio genético entre as pisciculturas.

Multiplexed detection: fast comprehensive sample analysis of tobacco leaf extracts using HPLC with AFT columns

Detector-based comprehensive screening analysis of complex samples of natural origin using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) can be a complicated and time-consuming task. There are a number of ways multidetection characterization can be achieved; however, there are limitations associated with each technique. Active Flow Technology (AFT) in Parallel Segmented Flow (PSF) mode allows for multiplexed detection HPLC analysis within a single injection, whereas maintaining chromatographic performance and allowing the use of multiple destructive detectors to achieve a comprehensive yet efficient screening of a complex sample. In this study, a comprehensive characterization analysis of tobacco leaf extract was carried out through multiplexed detection using a PSF column for the detection of biomolecules by UV-Vis detection, DPPH• for reactive-oxygen species (ROS) detection, and mass spectrometry, the latter two detection methods being sample destructive.

Participant characteristics associated with greater reductions in waist circumference during a four-month, pedometer-based, workplace health program

BACKGROUND: Workplace health programs have demonstrated improvements in a number of risk factors for chronic disease. However, there has been little investigation of participant characteristics that may be associated with change in risk factors during such programs. The aim of this paper is to identify participant characteristics associated with improved waist circumference (WC) following participation in a four-month, pedometer-based, physical activity, workplace health program.

METHODS: 762 adults employed in primarily sedentary occupations and voluntarily enrolled in a four-month workplace program aimed at increasing physical activity were recruited from ten Australian worksites in 2008. Seventy-nine percent returned at the end of the health program. Data included demographic, behavioural, anthropometric and biomedical measurements. WC change (before versus after) was assessed by multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses. Seven groupings of potential associated variables from baseline were sequentially added to build progressively larger regression models.

RESULTS: Greater improvement in WC during the program was associated with having completed tertiary education, consuming two or less standard alcoholic beverages in one occasion in the twelve months prior to baseline, undertaking less baseline weekend sitting time and lower baseline total cholesterol. A greater WC at baseline was strongly associated with a greater improvement in WC. A sub-analysis in participants with a 'high-risk' baseline WC revealed that younger age, enrolling for reasons other than appearance, undertaking less weekend sitting time at baseline, eating two or more pieces of fruit per day at baseline, higher baseline physical functioning and lower baseline body mass index were associated with greater odds of moving to 'low risk' WC at the end of the program.

CONCLUSIONS: While employees with 'high-risk' WC at baseline experienced the greatest improvements in WC, the other variables associated with greater WC improvement were generally indicators of better baseline health. These results indicate that employees who started with better health, potentially due to lifestyle or recent behavioural changes, were more likely to respond positively to the program. Future health program initiators should think innovatively to encourage all enrolees along the health spectrum to achieve a successful outcome.

Root:Shoot Ratio and Specific Leaf Area Along an Elevational Gradient in the Peruvian Andes

Andean montane forests are one of the most diverse ecosystems on Earth, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the link between plant distribution and ecosystem productivity is a critical point to investigate in these ecosystems. Are the patterns in productivity observed in montane forest due to species turnover along the elevational gradients? Methodological constraints keep this question unanswered. Also, despite their importance, belowground biomass remains poorly quantified and understood. I measured two plant functional traits in seedlings, root:shoot ratio and specific leaf area, to identify different strategies in growth and biomass allocation across elevations. A tradeoff in specific leaf area with elevation was found in only one species, and no generalized directional change was detected with elevations for root:shoot ratio. Lack of information for the ontogeny of the measured plant traits could confounding the analysis.

Multivariate analysis of lifestyle, constitutive and body composition factors influencing bone health in community-dwelling older adults from Madeira, Portugal

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Improving the Performance of Database-Centric Applications Through Program Analysis

Thesis (Ph.D, Computing) -- Queen's University, 2016-09-30 09:55:51.506

Climate Change Adaptation Case Study: Benefit-Cost Analysis of Coastal Flooding Hazard Mitigation

The damage Hurricane Sandy caused had far-reaching repercussions up and down the East Coast of the United States. Vast coastal flooding accompanied the storm, inundating homes, businesses, and utility and emergency facilities. Since the storm, projects to mitigate similar future floods have been scrutinized. Such projects not only need to keep out floodwaters but also be designed to withstand the effect that climate change might have on rising sea levels and increased flood risk. In this study, we develop an economic model to assess the costs and benefits of a berm (sea wall) to mitigate the effects of flooding from a large storm. We account for the lifecycle costs of the project, which include those for the upfront construction of the berm, ongoing maintenance, land acquisition, and wetland and recreation zone construction. Benefits of the project include avoided fatalities, avoided residential and commercial damages, avoided utility and municipal damages, recreational and health benefits, avoided debris removal expenses, and avoided loss of function of key transportation and commercial infrastructure located in the area. Our estimate of the beneficial effects of the berm includes ecosystem services from wetlands and health benefits to the surrounding community from a park and nature system constructed along the berm. To account for the effects of climate change and verify that the project will maintain its effectiveness over the long term, we allow the risk of flooding to increase over time. Over our 50-year time horizon, we double the risk of 100- and 500-year flood events to account for the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding. Based on the economic analysis, the project is highly cost beneficial over its 50-year timeframe. This analysis demonstrates that climate change adaptation investments can be cost beneficial even though they mitigate the impacts of low-probability, high-consequence events.

What Are Effective Program Characteristics of Self-Management Interventions in Patients With Heart Failure? : An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

Background To identify those characteristics of self-management interventions in patients with heart failure (HF) that are effective in influencing health-related quality of life, mortality, and hospitalizations. Methods and Results Randomized trials on self-management interventions conducted between January 1985 and June 2013 were identified and individual patient data were requested for meta-analysis. Generalized mixed effects models and Cox proportional hazard models including frailty terms were used to assess the relation between characteristics of interventions and health-related outcomes. Twenty randomized trials (5624 patients) were included. Longer intervention duration reduced mortality risk (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97–0.999 per month increase in duration), risk of HF-related hospitalization (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–0.99), and HF-related hospitalization at 6 months (risk ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–0.995). Although results were not consistent across outcomes, interventions comprising standardized training of interventionists, peer contact, log keeping, or goal-setting skills appeared less effective than interventions without these characteristics. Conclusion No specific program characteristics were consistently associated with better effects of self-management interventions, but longer duration seemed to improve the effect of self-management interventions on several outcomes. Future research using factorial trial designs and process evaluations is needed to understand the working mechanism of specific program characteristics of self-management interventions in HF patients.

Sustainability or climate change? An ecocritical analysis of Ian McEwan’s Solar :

This essay is an ecocritical literary analysis of the novel Solar. The aim is to investigate the effect on the reader of the main characters, place, symbols and satire with focus on climate change and sustainability. The protagonist Michael Beard, a despicable, selfish antihero, consumes everything and everybody whereas Tom Aldous, the heroic character, is devoted to a life of sustainability. Beard represents the greedy capitalistic Western consumer society and its male leaders who close their eyes to the warnings of a changing climate, and Aldous represents the sustainable and alternative lifestyle. Humor and ridicule exhibits the weaknesses and greed of mankind in a satirical way. Symbols like cancer and the Co2 emitting transport system symbolize overconsumption and a stressed globe. The effect on the reader is a reflection about the ongoing struggle between climate change and sustainability and the demand for a change towards a sustainable lifestyle.

Structural brain connectivity and cognitive ability differences: A multivariate distance matrix regression analysis

Neuroimaging research involves analyses of huge amounts of biological data that might or might not be related with cognition. This relationship is usually approached using univariate methods, and, therefore, correction methods are mandatory for reducing false positives. Nevertheless, the probability of false negatives is also increased. Multivariate frameworks have been proposed for helping to alleviate this balance. Here we apply multivariate distance matrix regression for the simultaneous analysis of biological and cognitive data, namely, structural connections among 82 brain regions and several latent factors estimating cognitive performance. We tested whether cognitive differences predict distances among individuals regarding their connectivity pattern. Beginning with 3,321 connections among regions, the 36 edges better predicted by the individuals' cognitive scores were selected. Cognitive scores were related to connectivity distances in both the full (3,321) and reduced (36) connectivity patterns. The selected edges connect regions distributed across the entire brain and the network defined by these edges supports high-order cognitive processes such as (a) (fluid) executive control, (b) (crystallized) recognition, learning, and language processing, and (c) visuospatial processing. This multivariate study suggests that one widespread, but limited number, of regions in the human brain, supports high-level cognitive ability differences. Hum Brain Mapp, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation of deterministic and complex analytical hierarchy process methods for agricultural land suitability analysis in a changing climate

Land suitability analysis is employed to evaluate the appropriateness of land for a particular purpose whilst integrating both qualitative and quantitative inputs, which can be continuous in nature. However, in agricultural modelling there is often a disregard of this contiguous aspect. Therefore, some parametric procedures for suitability analysis compartmentalise units into defined membership classes. This imposition of crisp boundaries neglects the continuous formations found throughout nature and overlooks differences and inherent uncertainties found in the modelling. This research will compare two approaches to suitability analysis over three differing methods. The primary approach will use an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while the other approach will use a Fuzzy AHP over two methods; Fitted Fuzzy AHP and Nested Fuzzy AHP. Secondary to this, each method will be assessed into how it behaves in a climate change scenario to understand and highlight the role of uncertainties in model conceptualisation and structure. Outputs and comparisons between each method, in relation to area, proportion of membership classes and spatial representation, showed that fuzzy modelling techniques detailed a more robust and continuous output. In particular the Nested Fuzzy AHP was concluded to be more pertinent, as it incorporated complex modelling techniques, as well as the initial AHP framework. Through this comparison and assessment of model behaviour, an evaluation of each methods predictive capacity and relevance for decision-making purposes in agricultural applications is gained.