Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Description of a tertiary swiss university hospital palliative population based on the International Classifiaction of Disease (ICD) : a retrospective pilot study

Introduction : L'équipe mobile de soins palliatifs intra hospitalière (EMSP) du Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV) a été mise en place en 1996. Il s'agit d'une des premières équipes interdisciplinaire de consultants mise à disposition d'un hôpital tertiaire. Le CHUV est l'hôpital de proximité de la ville de Lausanne (850 lits) mais aussi un hôpital de référence pour le reste du canton. En 2007, il y a eu 38'359 patients hospitalisés au CHUV. Les facteurs d'évaluation du taux d'utilisation d'une équipe mobile de soins palliatifs consultantes sont variés et complexes. Plusieurs méthodes sont décrites dans la littérature pour tenter de répondre à cette problématique. Avant de pouvoir évaluer l'utilisation de notre équipe mobile consultante de soins palliatifs intra hospitalière, il nous est apparu nécessaire de mieux décrire et définir la population qui meurt dans notre institution. McNamara et collègues ont proposé des critères qui classifient une population palliative comme « minimale », « intermédiaire » ou « maximale ». L'objectif de cette étude est de déterminer le taux de patients décédés au CHUV sur une période de 4 mois (Γ1 février au 31 mai 2007) suivie par notre EMSP en utilisant la méthode de classification «minimal » et « maximal ». Méthode : les archives médicales du CHUV ont été analysées pour chaque patient adulte décédé pendant la période sélectionnée. Les populations « maximal » et « minimal » de ces patients ont été ensuite déterminées selon des critères basés sur les codes diagnostiques figurants sur les certificats de décès. De ces deux populations, nous avons identifié à partir de notre base de données, les patients qui ont été suivie par notre EMSP. Le CHUV utilise les mêmes codes diagnostiques (International Classification of Disease, ICD) que ceux utilisés dans la classification de McNamara. Une recherche pilote effectuée dans les archives médicales du CHUV manuellement en analysant en profondeur l'ensemble du dossier médical a révélé que la classification de la population « minimal » pouvait être biaisée notamment en raison d'une confusion entre la cause directe du décès (complication d'une maladie) et la maladie de base. Nous avons estimé le pourcentage d'erreur de codification en analysé un échantillon randomisé de patients qui remplissait les critères « minimal ». Résultats : sur un total de 294 décès, 263 (89%) remplissaient initialement les critères « maximal » et 83 (28%) les critères «minimal», l'analyse de l'échantillon randomisé de 56 dossiers de patients sur les 180 qui ne remplissaient pas les critères « minimal » ont révélé que 21 (38%) auraient dus être inclus dans la population « minimal ». L'EMSP a vu 67/263 (25.5%) de la population palliative « maximal » et 56/151 (37.1%) de la population palliative « minimal ». Conclusion : cette étude souligne l'utilité de la méthode proposée par McNamara pour déterminer la population de patients palliatifs. Cependant, notre travail illustre aussi une limite importante de l'estimation de la population « minima » en lien avec l'imprécision des causes de décès figurant sur les certificats de décès de notre institution. Nos résultats mettent aussi en lumière que l'EMSP de notre institution est clairement sous- utilisée. Nous prévoyons une étude prospective de plus large envergure utilisant la même méthodologie afin d'approfondir les résultats de cette étude pilote.

Discriminant analysis of skull morphometric characters in Apodemus sylvaticus, A-flavicollis, and A-alpicola (Mammalia; Rodentia) from the Alps

A total of 108 Apodemus skulls from Switzerland, Austria, Italy, France and Germany was studied to determine morphological characteristics useful in identifying individuals as Apodemus sylvaticus (Linnaeus, 1758), A. flavicollis (Melchior, 1834) or A. alpicola Heinrich, 1952. The original assignment of the samples to the three species was based on molar cusp morphology, body proportions, pelage coloration, and allozyme analysis. The 24 measured cranial characters used together accurately discriminated between the three species and correctly classified 100% of the individuals to species. A stepwise discriminant function analysis showed that 6 cranial characters are sufficient to differentiate between the three species, with a correct classification above 97%. Fisher's linear discriminant function coefficients can be used directly for classification of unknown specimens.

One minute of grief: Emotional processing in short-term dynamic psychotherapy for adjustment disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Depth of emotional processing has shown to be related to outcome across approaches to psychotherapy. Moreover, a specific emotional sequence has been postulated and tested in several studies on experiential psychotherapy (Pascual-Leone & Greenberg, 2007). This process-outcome study aims at reproducing the sequential model of emotional processing in psychodynamic psychotherapy for adjustment disorder and linking these variables with ultimate therapeutic outcome. METHOD: In this study, 32 patients underwent short-term dynamic psychotherapy. On the basis of reliable clinical change statistics, a subgroup (n = 16) presented with good outcome and another subgroup (n = 16) had a poor outcome in the end of treatment. The strongest alliance session of each case was rated using the observer-rated system Classification of Affective Meaning States. Reliability coefficients for the measure were excellent (κ = .82). RESULTS: Using 1 min as the fine-grained unit of analysis, results showed that the experience of fundamentally adaptive grief was more common in the in-session process of patients with good outcome, compared with those with poor outcomes (χ2 = 6.56, p = .01, d = 1.23). This variable alone predicted 19% of the change in depressive symptoms as measured by the Beck Depression Inventory at the end of treatment. Moreover, sequences of the original model were supported and related to outcome. CONCLUSIONS: These results are discussed within the framework of the sequential model of emotional processing and its possible relevance for psychodynamic psychotherapy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Population-based registration of phenotypic anatomic and familial data for melanoma: results from a Swiss multicentric study

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES: A multicentric study was set up to assess the feasibility for Swiss cancer registries of actively retrieving 3 additional variables of epidemiological and a etiological relevance for melanoma, and of potential use for the evaluation of prevention campaigns. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The skin type, family history of melanoma and precise anatomical site were retrieved for melanoma cases registered in 5 Swiss cantons (Neuchâtel, St-Gall and Appenzell, Vaud and Wallis) over 3 to 6 consecutive years (1995-2002). Data were obtained via a short questionnaire administered by the physicians - mostly dermatologists - who originally excised the lesions. As the detailed body site was routinely collected in Ticino, data from this Cancer Registry were included in the body site analysis. Relative melanoma density (RMD) was computed by the ratio of observed to expected numbers of melanomas allowing for body site surface areas, and further adjusted for site-specific melanocyte density. RESULTS: Of the 1,645 questionnaires sent, 1,420 (86.3%) were returned. The detailed cutaneous site and skin type were reliably obtained for 84.7% and 78.7% of questionnaires, and family history was known in 76% of instances. Prevalence of sun-sensitive subjects and patients with melanoma affected first-degree relatives, two target groups for early detection and surveillance campaigns were 54.1% and 3.4%, respectively. After translation into the 4th digit of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, the anatomical site codes from printed (original information) and pictorial support (body chart from the questionnaire) concurred for 94.6% of lesions. Discrepancies occurred mostly for lesions on the upper, outer part of the shoulder for which the clinician's textual description was "shoulder blade". This differential misclassification suggests under-estimation by about 10% of melanomas of the upper limbs and an over-estimation of 5% for truncal melanomas. Sites of highest melanoma risk were the face, the shoulder and the upper arm for sexes, the back for men and the leg for women. Three major features of this series were: (1) an unexpectedly high RMD for the face in women (6.2 vs 4.2 in men), (2) the absence of a male predominance for melanomas on the ears, and (3) for the upper limbs, a steady gradient of increasing melanoma density with increasing proximity to the trunk, regardless of sex. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The feasibility of retrieving the skin type, the precise anatomical location and family history of melanoma in a reliable manner was demonstrated thanks to the collaboration of Swiss dermatologists. Use of a schematic body drawing improves the quality of the anatomical site data and facilitate the reporting task of doctors. Age and sex patterns of RMD paralleled general indicators of sun exposure and behaviour, except for the hand (RMD=0.2). These Swiss results support some site or sun exposure specificity in the aetiology of melanoma.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Semi-supervised remote sensing image classification with cluster kernels

A semisupervised support vector machine is presented for the classification of remote sensing images. The method exploits the wealth of unlabeled samples for regularizing the training kernel representation locally by means of cluster kernels. The method learns a suitable kernel directly from the image and thus avoids assuming a priori signal relations by using a predefined kernel structure. Good results are obtained in image classification examples when few labeled samples are available. The method scales almost linearly with the number of unlabeled samples and provides out-of-sample predictions.

Growth, optical characterization, and laser operation of a stoichiometric crystal KYb(WO4)(2)

We present our recent achievements in the growing and optical characterization of KYb(WO4)2 (hereafter KYbW) crystals and demonstrate laser operation in this stoichiometric material. Single crystals of KYbW with optimal crystalline quality have been grown by the top-seeded-solution growth slow-cooling method. The optical anisotropy of this monoclinic crystal has been characterized, locating the tensor of the optical indicatrix and measuring the dispersion of the principal values of the refractive indices as well as the thermo-optic coefficients. Sellmeier equations have been constructed valid in the visible and near-IR spectral range. Raman scattering has been used to determine the phonon energies of KYbW and a simple physical model is applied for classification of the lattice vibration modes. Spectroscopic studies (absorption and emission measurements at room and low temperature) have been carried out in the spectral region near 1 µm characteristic for the ytterbium transition. Energy positions of the Stark sublevels of the ground and the excited state manifolds have been determined and the vibronic substructure has been identified. The intrinsic lifetime of the upper laser level has been measured taking care to suppress the effect of reabsorption and the intrinsic quantum efficiency has been estimated. Lasing has been demonstrated near 1074 nm with 41% slope efficiency at room temperature using a 0.5 mm thin plate of KYbW. This laser material holds great promise for diode pumped high-power lasers, thin disk and waveguide designs as well as for ultrashort (ps/fs) pulse laser systems.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Evaluation of PCC Long-Term Durability Using Intermediate Sized Gravels to Optimize Mix Gradations, April 2010

With the implementation of the 2000 Q-MC specification, an incentive is provided to produce an optimized gradation to improve placement characteristics. Also, specifications for slip-formed barrier rail have changed to require an optimized gradation. Generally, these optimized gradations have been achieved by blending an intermediate aggregate with the coarse and fine aggregate. The demand for this intermediate aggregate has been satisfied by using crushed limestone chips developed from the crushing of the parent concrete stone. The availability, cost, and physical limitations of crushed limestone chips can be a concern. A viable option in addressing these concerns is the use of gravel as the intermediate aggregate. Unfortunately, gravels of Class 3I durability are limited to a small geographic area in Mississippi river sands north of the Rock River. Class 3 or Class 2 durability gravels are more widely available across the state. The durability classification of gravels is based on the amount and quality of the carbonate fraction of the material. At present, no service histories or research exists to assess the impact of using Class 3 or 2 durability gravels would have on the long-term durability of Portland cement concrete (PCC) pavement requiring Class 3I aggregate.

Soil spectral library and its use in soil classification

Soil science has sought to develop better techniques for the classification of soils, one of which is the use of remote sensing applications. The use of ground sensors to obtain soil spectral data has enabled the characterization of these data and the advancement of techniques for the quantification of soil attributes. In order to do this, the creation of a soil spectral library is necessary. A spectral library should be representative of the variability of the soils in a region. The objective of this study was to create a spectral library of distinct soils from several agricultural regions of Brazil. Spectral data were collected (using a Fieldspec sensor, 350-2,500 nm) for the horizons of 223 soil profiles from the regions of Matão, Paraguaçu Paulista, Andradina, Ipaussu, Mirandópolis, Piracicaba, São Carlos, Araraquara, Guararapes, Valparaíso (SP); Naviraí, Maracajú, Rio Brilhante, Três Lagoas (MS); Goianésia (GO); and Uberaba and Lagoa da Prata (MG). A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the data was then performed and a graphic representation of the spectral curve was created for each profile. The reflectance intensity of the curves was principally influenced by the levels of Fe2O3, clay, organic matter and the presence of opaque minerals. There was no change in the spectral curves in the horizons of the Latossolos, Nitossolos, and Neossolos Quartzarênicos. Argissolos had superficial horizon curves with the greatest intensity of reflection above 2,200 nm. Cambissolos and Neossolos Litólicos had curves with greater reflectance intensity in poorly developed horizons. Gleisols showed a convex curve in the region of 350-400 nm. The PCA was able to separate different data collection areas according to the region of source material. Principal component one (PC1) was correlated with the intensity of reflectance samples and PC2 with the slope between the visible and infrared samples. The use of the Spectral Library as an indicator of possible soil classes proved to be an important tool in profile classification.

Soil and nutrient losses in erosion gullies at different degrees of restoration

The most advanced stage of water erosion, the gully, represents severe problems in different contexts, both in rural and urban environments. In the search for a stabilization of the process in a viable manner it is of utmost importance to assess the efficiency of evaluation methodologies. For this purpose, the efficiency of low-cost conservation practices were tested for the reduction of soil and nutrient losses caused by erosion from gullies in Pinheiral, state of Rio de Janeiro. The following areas were studied: gully recovered by means of physical and biological strategies; gullies in recovering stage, by means of physical strategies only, and gullies under no restoration treatment. During the summer of 2005/2006, the following data sets were collected for this study: soil classification of each of the eroded gully areas; planimetric and altimetric survey; determination of rain erosivity indexes; determination of amount of soil sediment; sediment grain size characteristics; natural amounts of nutrients Ca, Mg, K and P, as well as total C and N concentrations. The results for the three first measurements were 52.5, 20.5, and 29.0 Mg in the sediments from the gully without intervention, and of 1.0, 1.7 and 1.8 Mg from the gully with physical interventions, indicating an average reduction of 95 %. The fully recovered gully produced no sediment during the period. The data of total nutrient loss from the three gullies under investigation showed reductions of 98 % for the recovering gully, and 99 % for the fully recovered one. As for the loss of nutrients, the data indicate a nutrient loss of 1,811 kg from for the non-treated gully. The use of physical and biological interventions made it possible to reduce overall nutrient loss by more than 96 %, over the entire rainy season, as compared to the non-treated gully. Results show that the methods used were effective in reducing soil and nutrient losses from gullies.

Seizure semiology: an overview of the 'inverse problem'.

In clinical practice, a classification of seizures based on clinical signs and symptoms leads to an improved understanding of epilepsy-related issues and therefore strongly contributes to a better patient care. The inverse problem involves inferring the anatomical brain localization of a seizure from the scalp surface EEG, a concept we apply here to correlate seizure origin with seizure semiology. The spheres of sensorium, motor features, consciousness changes and autonomic alterations during ictal and postictal manifestations are reviewed, including several subdivisions used to better categorize particular features. Particular attention is given to behavioral features, as well as to features occurring in idiopathic generalized epileptic syndromes and psychogenic nonepileptic spells.

Monosomal karyotype in acute myeloid leukemia: a better indicator of poor prognosis than a complex karyotype.

PURPOSE: To investigate the prognostic value of various cytogenetic components of a complex karyotype in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Cytogenetics and overall survival (OS) were analyzed in 1,975 AML patients age 15 to 60 years. RESULTS: Besides AML with normal cytogenetics (CN) and core binding factor (CBF) abnormalities, we distinguished 733 patients with cytogenetic abnormalities. Among the latter subgroup, loss of a single chromosome (n = 109) conferred negative prognostic impact (4-year OS, 12%; poor outcome). Loss of chromosome 7 was most common, but outcome of AML patients with single monosomy -7 (n = 63; 4-year OS, 13%) and other single autosomal monosomies (n = 46; 4-year OS, 12%) did not differ. Structural chromosomal abnormalities influenced prognosis only in association with a single autosomal monosomy (4-year OS, 4% for very poor v 24% for poor). We derived a monosomal karyotype (MK) as a predictor for very poor prognosis of AML that refers to two or more distinct autosomal chromosome monosomies (n = 116; 4-year OS, 3%) or one single autosomal monosomy in the presence of structural abnormalities (n = 68; 4-year OS, 4%). In direct comparisons, MK provides significantly better prognostic prediction than the traditionally defined complex karyotype, which considers any three or more or five or more clonal cytogenetic abnormalities, and also than various individual specific cytogenetic abnormalities (eg, del[5q], inv[3]/t[3;3]) associated with very poor outcome. CONCLUSION: MK enables (in addition to CN and CBF) the prognostic classification of two new aggregates of cytogenetically abnormal AML, the unfavorable risk MK-negative category (4-year OS, 26% +/- 2%) and the highly unfavorable risk MK-positive category (4-year OS, 4% +/- 1%).

Mult-class differentiation of cannabis seedlings in a forensic context

This article presents an experimental study about the classification ability of several classifiers for multi-classclassification of cannabis seedlings. As the cultivation of drug type cannabis is forbidden in Switzerland lawenforcement authorities regularly ask forensic laboratories to determinate the chemotype of a seized cannabisplant and then to conclude if the plantation is legal or not. This classification is mainly performed when theplant is mature as required by the EU official protocol and then the classification of cannabis seedlings is a timeconsuming and costly procedure. A previous study made by the authors has investigated this problematic [1]and showed that it is possible to differentiate between drug type (illegal) and fibre type (legal) cannabis at anearly stage of growth using gas chromatography interfaced with mass spectrometry (GC-MS) based on therelative proportions of eight major leaf compounds. The aims of the present work are on one hand to continueformer work and to optimize the methodology for the discrimination of drug- and fibre type cannabisdeveloped in the previous study and on the other hand to investigate the possibility to predict illegal cannabisvarieties. Seven classifiers for differentiating between cannabis seedlings are evaluated in this paper, namelyLinear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA), Nearest NeighbourClassification (NNC), Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ), Radial Basis Function Support Vector Machines(RBF SVMs), Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The performance of each method wasassessed using the same analytical dataset that consists of 861 samples split into drug- and fibre type cannabiswith drug type cannabis being made up of 12 varieties (i.e. 12 classes). The results show that linear classifiersare not able to manage the distribution of classes in which some overlap areas exist for both classificationproblems. Unlike linear classifiers, NNC and RBF SVMs best differentiate cannabis samples both for 2-class and12-class classifications with average classification results up to 99% and 98%, respectively. Furthermore, RBFSVMs correctly classified into drug type cannabis the independent validation set, which consists of cannabisplants coming from police seizures. In forensic case work this study shows that the discrimination betweencannabis samples at an early stage of growth is possible with fairly high classification performance fordiscriminating between cannabis chemotypes or between drug type cannabis varieties.