General Equilibrium Analysis. A Century after Walras

2010 marks the hundredth anniversary of the death of Léon Walras, the brilliant originator and first formaliser of general equilibrium theory - one of the pillars of modern economic theory. In advancing much derided practical solutions Walras also displayed more concern for the problems of living in a second best world than is common in modern pure theories of the invisible hand, efficient market hypothesis, DSGE macroeconomics or the thinking of some contemporary free market admirers all based on general equilibrium theory. This book brings contributions from the likes of Kenneth Arrow, Alan Kirman, Richard Posner, Amartya Sen and Robert Solow to share their thoughts and reflections on the theoretical heritage of Léon Walras. Some authors reminisce on the part they played in the development of modern general economics theory; others reflect on the crucial part played by general equilibrium in the development of macroeconomics, microeconomics, growth theory, welfare economics and the theory of justice; others still complain about the wrong path economic theory took under the influence of post 1945 developments in general equilibrium theory.

An inertial sensor-based system for spatio-temporal analysis in classic cross-country skiing diagonal technique.

The present study proposes a method based on ski fixed inertial sensors to automatically compute spatio-temporal parameters (phase durations, cycle speed and cycle length) for the diagonal stride in classical cross-country skiing. The proposed system was validated against a marker-based motion capture system during indoor treadmill skiing. Skiing movement of 10 junior to world-cup athletes was measured for four different conditions. The accuracy (i.e. median error) and precision (i.e. interquartile range of error) of the system was below 6ms for cycle duration and ski thrust duration and below 35ms for pole push duration. Cycle speed precision (accuracy) was below 0.1m/s (0.005m/s) and cycle length precision (accuracy) was below 0.15m (0.005m). The system was sensitive to changes of conditions and was accurate enough to detect significant differences reported in previous studies. Since capture volume is not limited and setup is simple, the system would be well suited for outdoor measurements on snow.

Effects of unit - based pricing on the waste collection demand : a meta - regression analysis

We perform a meta - analysis of 21 studies that estimate the elasticity of the price of waste collection demand upon waste quantities, a prior literature review having revealed that the price elasticity differs markedly. Based on a meta - regression with a total of 65 observations, we find no indication that municipal data give higher estimates for price elasticities than those associated with household data. Furthermore, there is no evidence that treating prices as exogenous underestimates the price elasticity. We find that much of the variation can be explained by sample size, the use of a weight - based as opposed to a volume - based pricing system, and the pricing of compostable waste. We also show that price elasticities determined in the USA and point estimations of elasticities are more elastic, but these effects are not robust to the changing of model specifications. Finally, our tests show that there is no evidence of publication bias while there is some evidence of the existence of genuine empirical effect.

An analysis of protocols and publications suggested that most discontinuations of clinical trials were not based on preplanned interim analyses or stopping rules.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the frequency of interim analyses, stopping rules, and data safety and monitoring boards (DSMBs) in protocols of randomized controlled trials (RCTs); to examine these features across different reasons for trial discontinuation; and to identify discrepancies in reporting between protocols and publications. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used data from a cohort of RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by six research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. RESULTS: Of 894 RCT protocols, 289 prespecified interim analyses (32.3%), 153 stopping rules (17.1%), and 257 DSMBs (28.7%). Overall, 249 of 894 RCTs (27.9%) were prematurely discontinued; mostly due to reasons such as poor recruitment, administrative reasons, or unexpected harm. Forty-six of 249 RCTs (18.4%) were discontinued due to early benefit or futility; of those, 37 (80.4%) were stopped outside a formal interim analysis or stopping rule. Of 515 published RCTs, there were discrepancies between protocols and publications for interim analyses (21.1%), stopping rules (14.4%), and DSMBs (19.6%). CONCLUSION: Two-thirds of RCT protocols did not consider interim analyses, stopping rules, or DSMBs. Most RCTs discontinued for early benefit or futility were stopped without a prespecified mechanism. When assessing trial manuscripts, journals should require access to the protocol.

Blood pressure reductions following catheter-based renal denervation are not related to improvements in adherence to antihypertensive drugs measured by urine/plasma toxicological analysis.

Renal denervation can reduce blood pressure in patients with uncontrolled hypertension. The adherence to prescribed antihypertensive medication following renal denervation is unknown. This study investigated adherence to prescribed antihypertensive treatment by liquid chromatography-high resolution tandem mass spectrometry in plasma and urine at baseline and 6 months after renal denervation in 100 patients with resistant hypertension, defined as baseline office systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg despite treatment with ≥3 antihypertensive agents. At baseline, complete adherence to all prescribed antihypertensive agents was observed in 52 patients, 46 patients were partially adherent, and two patients were completely non-adherent. Baseline office blood pressure was 167/88 ± 19/16 mmHg with a corresponding 24-h blood pressure of 154/86 ± 15/13 mmHg. Renal denervation significantly reduced office and ambulatory blood pressure at 6-month follow-up by 15/5 mmHg (p < 0.001/p < 0.001) and 8/4 mmHg (p < 0.001/p = 0.001), respectively. Mean adherence to prescribed treatment was significantly reduced from 85.0 % at baseline to 80.7 %, 6 months after renal denervation (p = 0.005). The blood pressure decrease was not explained by improvements in adherence following the procedure. Patients not responding to treatment significantly reduced their drug intake following the procedure. Adherence was highest for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers and beta blockers (>90 %) and lowest for vasodilators (21 %). In conclusion, renal denervation can reduce office and ambulatory blood pressure in patients with resistant hypertension despite a significant reduction in adherence to antihypertensive treatment after 6 months.

Simulation-based evaluation of susceptibility distortion correction methods in diffusion MRI for connectivity analysis

Connectivity analysis on diffusion MRI data of the whole- brain suffers from distortions caused by the standard echo- planar imaging acquisition strategies. These images show characteristic geometrical deformations and signal destruction that are an important drawback limiting the success of tractography algorithms. Several retrospective correction techniques are readily available. In this work, we use a digital phantom designed for the evaluation of connectivity pipelines. We subject the phantom to a âeurooetheoretically correctâeuro and plausible deformation that resembles the artifact under investigation. We correct data back, with three standard methodologies (namely fieldmap-based, reversed encoding-based, and registration- based). Finally, we rank the methods based on their geometrical accuracy, the dropout compensation, and their impact on the resulting connectivity matrices.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. METHODS: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women. INTERPRETATION: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

Analysis of translational errors in frame-based and frameless cranial radiosurgery using an anthropomorphic phantom

Abstract Objective: To evaluate three-dimensional translational setup errors and residual errors in image-guided radiosurgery, comparing frameless and frame-based techniques, using an anthropomorphic phantom. Materials and Methods: We initially used specific phantoms for the calibration and quality control of the image-guided system. For the hidden target test, we used an Alderson Radiation Therapy (ART)-210 anthropomorphic head phantom, into which we inserted four 5mm metal balls to simulate target treatment volumes. Computed tomography images were the taken with the head phantom properly positioned for frameless and frame-based radiosurgery. Results: For the frameless technique, the mean error magnitude was 0.22 ± 0.04 mm for setup errors and 0.14 ± 0.02 mm for residual errors, the combined uncertainty being 0.28 mm and 0.16 mm, respectively. For the frame-based technique, the mean error magnitude was 0.73 ± 0.14 mm for setup errors and 0.31 ± 0.04 mm for residual errors, the combined uncertainty being 1.15 mm and 0.63 mm, respectively. Conclusion: The mean values, standard deviations, and combined uncertainties showed no evidence of a significant differences between the two techniques when the head phantom ART-210 was used.

Feature selection for automatic analysis of emotional response based on nonlinear speech modeling suitable for diagnosis of Alzheimer׳s disease

Alzheimer׳s disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia among the elderly. This work is part of a larger study that aims to identify novel technologies and biomarkers or features for the early detection of AD and its degree of severity. The diagnosis is made by analyzing several biomarkers and conducting a variety of tests (although only a post-mortem examination of the patients’ brain tissue is considered to provide definitive confirmation). Non-invasive intelligent diagnosis techniques would be a very valuable diagnostic aid. This paper concerns the Automatic Analysis of Emotional Response (AAER) in spontaneous speech based on classical and new emotional speech features: Emotional Temperature (ET) and fractal dimension (FD). This is a pre-clinical study aiming to validate tests and biomarkers for future diagnostic use. The method has the great advantage of being non-invasive, low cost, and without any side effects. The AAER shows very promising results for the definition of features useful in the early diagnosis of AD.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Azolium-based systems: application of an anion exchange resin (A- form) method and 1H NMR analysis of the charged-assisted (CH)+·anion hydrogen bonds

The counteranion exchange of quaternary 1,2,3-triazolium salts was examined using a simple method that permitted halide ions to be swap for a variety of anions using an anion exchange resin (A¯ form). The method was applied to 1,2,3-triazolium-based ionic liquids and the iodideto- anion exchange proceeded in excellent to quantitative yields, concomitantly removing halide impurities. Additionally, an anion exchange resin (N3¯ form) was used to obtain the benzyl azide from benzyl halide under mild reaction. Likewise, following a similar protocol, bis(azidomethyl)arenes were also synthesized in excellent yields. The results of a proton NMR spectroscopic study of simple azolium-based ion pairs are discussed, with attention focused on the significance of the charged-assisted (CH)+···anion hydrogen bonds of simple azolium systems such as 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium and 1-benzyl-3-methyl-1,2,3-triazolium salts.

Azolium-based systems: application of an anion exchange resin (A- form) method and 1H NMR analysis of the charged-assisted (CH)+·anion hydrogen bonds

The counteranion exchange of quaternary 1,2,3-triazolium salts was examined using a simple method that permitted halide ions to be swap for a variety of anions using an anion exchange resin (A¯ form). The method was applied to 1,2,3-triazolium-based ionic liquids and the iodideto- anion exchange proceeded in excellent to quantitative yields, concomitantly removing halide impurities. Additionally, an anion exchange resin (N3¯ form) was used to obtain the benzyl azide from benzyl halide under mild reaction. Likewise, following a similar protocol, bis(azidomethyl)arenes were also synthesized in excellent yields. The results of a proton NMR spectroscopic study of simple azolium-based ion pairs are discussed, with attention focused on the significance of the charged-assisted (CH)+···anion hydrogen bonds of simple azolium systems such as 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium and 1-benzyl-3-methyl-1,2,3-triazolium salts.

Azolium-based systems: application of an anion exchange resin (A- form) method and 1H NMR analysis of the charged-assisted (CH)+·anion hydrogen bonds

The counteranion exchange of quaternary 1,2,3-triazolium salts was examined using a simple method that permitted halide ions to be swap for a variety of anions using an anion exchange resin (A¯ form). The method was applied to 1,2,3-triazolium-based ionic liquids and the iodideto- anion exchange proceeded in excellent to quantitative yields, concomitantly removing halide impurities. Additionally, an anion exchange resin (N3¯ form) was used to obtain the benzyl azide from benzyl halide under mild reaction. Likewise, following a similar protocol, bis(azidomethyl)arenes were also synthesized in excellent yields. The results of a proton NMR spectroscopic study of simple azolium-based ion pairs are discussed, with attention focused on the significance of the charged-assisted (CH)+···anion hydrogen bonds of simple azolium systems such as 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium and 1-benzyl-3-methyl-1,2,3-triazolium salts.