The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes

In this paper, a new family of survival distributions is presented. It is derived by considering that the latent number of failure causes follows a Poisson distribution and the time for these causes to be activated follows an exponential distribution. Three different activation schemes are also considered. Moreover, we propose the inclusion of covariates in the model formulation in order to study their effect on the expected value of the number of causes and on the failure rate function. Inferential procedure based on the maximum likelihood method is discussed and evaluated via simulation. The developed methodology is illustrated on a real data set on ovarian cancer.

Avaliação dos exercícios proprioceptivos no tratamento dos distúrbios do manguito rotador em profissionais de enfermagem: um estudo clínico controlado e randomizado

CONTEXTUALIZAÇÃO: A dor no ombro em profissionais de enfermagem pode acarretar limitação das atividades diárias e ocupacionais e interferir na qualidade de vida. OBJETIVO: Comparar o efeito da aplicação de dois programas fisioterapêuticos diferenciados pelos exercícios de propriocepção em trabalhadores de enfermagem com desordem do manguito rotador, segundo indicadores de qualidade de vida, satisfação no trabalho e intensidade da dor. MÉTODO: Trata-se de um estudo experimental, randomizado, prospectivo, comparativo, com análise quantitativa dos dados. A coleta de dados foi realizada no período de junho de 2010 a julho de 2011, por meio de um questionário sociodemográfico e profissional, questionário Western Ontario Rotador Cuff Index (WORC), Escala de Satisfação no Trabalho (Occupational Stress Indicator) e Escala Visual Numérica (EVN) para intensidade da dor. Após randomização, os sujeitos foram alocados em dois grupos. No Grupo 1 (controle), foram aplicados exercícios de alongamento, fortalecimento e crioterapia. No Grupo 2 (experimental), foram realizados os mesmos exercícios que no Grupo 1 acrescidos de exercícios proprioceptivos. Os dados foram analisados por meio do Statistical Package for the Social Science, versão 16.0 para Windows. RESULTADOS: Após os tratamentos fisioterapêuticos, houve melhora significativa da dor nos sujeitos dos dois grupos e da qualidade de vida nos trabalhadores do Grupo 2. Não houve alteração dos indicadores de satisfação no trabalho nos dois grupos. CONCLUSÕES: Os exercícios proprioceptivos foram importantes no tratamento dos distúrbios osteomusculares. No entanto, os resultados não permitiram inferir a melhor efetividade deles em relação ao outro tratamento, pois não houve diferença significativa entre os grupos. Ensaio clínico registrado no ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01465932.

Accuracy of Timed Up and Go Test for screening risk of falls among community-dwelling elderly

Objective: To determine the accuracy of the Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) for screening the risk of falls among community-dwelling elderly individuals. Method: This is a prospective cohort study with a randomly by lots without reposition sample stratified by proportional partition in relation to gender involving 63 community-dwelling elderly individuals. Elderly individuals who reported having Parkinson's disease, a history of transitory ischemic attack, stroke and with a Mini Mental State Exam lower than the expected for the education level, were on a wheelchair and that reported a single fall in the previous six months were excluded. The TUGT, a mobility test, was the measure of interested and the occurrence of falls was the outcome. The performance of basic activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) was determined through the Older American Resources and Services, and the socio-demographic and clinical data were determined through the use of additional questionnaires. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves were used to analyze the sensitivity and specificity of the TUGT. Results: Elderly individuals who fell had greater difficulties in ADL and IADL (p<0.01) and a slower performance on the TUGT (p=0.02). No differences were found in socio-demographic and clinical characteristics between fallers and non- fallers. Considering the different sensitivity and specificity, the best predictive value for discriminating elderly individuals who fell was 12.47 seconds [(RR= 3.2) 95% CI: 1.3- 7.7]. Conclusions: The TUGT proved to be an accurate measure for screening the risk of falls among elderly individuals. Although different from that reported in the international literature, the 12.47 second cutoff point seems to be a better predictive value for Brazilian elderly individuals.

Exercise training program based on minimum weekly frequencies: effects on blood pressure and physical fitness in elderly hypertensive patients

Background: Exercise training (ET) can reduce blood pressure (BP) and prevent functional disability. However, the effects of low volumes of training have been poorly studied, especially in elderly hypertensive patients. Objectives: To investigate the effects of a multi-component ET program (aerobic training, strength, flexibility, and balance) on BP, physical fitness, and functional ability of elderly hypertensive patients. Methods: Thirty-six elderly hypertensive patients with optimal clinical treatment underwent a multi-component ET program: two 60-minute sessions a week for 12 weeks at a Basic Health Unit. Results: Compared to pre-training values, systolic and diastolic BP were reduced by 3.6% and 1.2%, respectively (p < 0.001), body mass index was reduced by 1.1% (p < 0.001), and peripheral blood glucose was reduced by 2.5% (p= 0.002). There were improvements in all physical fitness domains: muscle strength (chair-stand test and elbow flexor test; p < 0.001), static balance test (unipedal stance test; p < 0.029), aerobic capacity (stationary gait test; p < 0.001), except for flexibility (sit and reach test). Moreover, there was a reduction in the time required to perform two functional ability tests: "put on sock" and "sit down, stand up, and move around the house" (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Lower volumes of ET improved BP, metabolic parameters, and physical fitness and reflected in the functional ability of elderly hypertensive patients. Trial Registration RBR-2xgjh3.

Effects of an adapted physical activity program on the physical condition of elderly women: an analysis of efficiency

Background: Specific research tools and designs can assist in identifying the efficiency of physical activity in elderly women. Objectives: To identify the effects of physical activity on the physical condition of older women. Method: A one-year-long physical activity program (123 sessions) was implemented for women aged 60 years or older. Four physical assessments were conducted, in which weight, height, BMI, blood pressure, heart rate, absences, grip strength, flexibility, VO2max, and static and dynamic balance were assessed. The statistical analyses included a repeated measures analysis, both inferential (analysis of variance - ANOVA) and effect size (Cohen's d coefficient), as well as identification of the participants' efficiency (Data Envelopment Analysis - DEA). Results: Despite the observation of differences that depended on the analysis used, the results were successful in the sense that they showed that physical activity adapted to older women can effectively change the decline in physical ability associated with aging, depending on the purpose of the study. The 60-65 yrs group was the most capable of converting physical activity into health benefits in both the short and long term. The >65 yrs group took less advantage of physical activity. Conclusions: Adherence to the program and actual time spent on each type of exercise are the factors that determine which population can benefit from physical activity programs. The DEA allows the assessment of the results related to time spent on physical activity in terms of health concerns. Article registered in Clinicaltrials.gov under number NCT01558401.

A Bayesian destructive weighted Poisson cure rate model and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this article, we propose a new Bayesian flexible cure rate survival model, which generalises the stochastic model of Klebanov et al. [Klebanov LB, Rachev ST and Yakovlev AY. A stochastic-model of radiation carcinogenesis - latent time distributions and their properties. Math Biosci 1993; 113: 51-75], and has much in common with the destructive model formulated by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)]. In our approach, the accumulated number of lesions or altered cells follows a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model in terms of dispersion. Moreover, it possesses an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of the event of interest as it includes a destructive process of tumour cells after an initial treatment or the capacity of an individual exposed to irradiation to repair altered cells that results in cancer induction. In other words, what is recorded is only the damaged portion of the original number of altered cells not eliminated by the treatment or repaired by the repair system of an individual. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are then used to develop Bayesian inference for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a cutaneous melanoma data set analysed by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)] are presented.

A high-fat meal impairs muscle vasodilatation response to mental stress in humans with Glu27 β2-adrenoceptor polymorphism

Abstract Background Forearm blood flow responses during mental stress are greater in individuals homozygous for the Glu27 allele. A high-fat meal is associated with impaired endothelium-dependent dilatation. We investigated the impact of high-fat ingestion on the muscle vasodilatory responses during mental stress in individuals with the Glu27 allele and those with the Gln27 allele of the β2-adrenoceptor gene. Methods A total of 162 preselected individuals were genotyped for the Glu27Gln β2-adrenoceptor polymorphism. Twenty-four individuals participated in the study. Fourteen were homozygous for the Gln27 allele (Gln27Gln, 40 ± 2 years; 64 ± 2 kg), and 10 were homozygous for the Glu27 allele (Glu27Glu, 40 ± 3 years; 65 ± 3 kg). Forearm blood flow was evaluated by venous occlusion plethysmography before and after ingestion of 62 g of fat. Results The high-fat meal caused no changes in baseline forearm vascular conductance (FVC, 2.2 ± 0.1 vs. 2.4 ± 0.2; P = 0.27, respectively), but reduced FVC responses to mental stress (1.5 ± 0.2 vs. 0.8 ± 0.2 units; P = 0.04). When volunteers were divided according to their genotypes, baseline FVC was not different between groups (Glu27Glu = 2.4 ± 0.1 vs. Gln27Gln = 2.1 ± 0.1 units; P = 0.08), but it was significantly greater in Glu27Glu individuals during mental stress (1.9 ± 0.4 vs. 1.0 ± 0.3 units; P = 0.04). High-fat intake eliminated the difference in FVC responses between Glu27Glu and Gln27Gln individuals (FVC, 1.3 ± 0.4 vs. 1.2 ± 0.4; P = 0.66, respectively). Conclusion These findings demonstrate that a high-fat meal impairs muscle vasodilatation responses to mental stress in humans. However, this reduction can be attributed to the presence of the homozygous Glu27 allele of the β2-adrenoceptor gene.

Suicide rates and income in São Paulo and Brazil: a temporal and spatial epidemiologic analysis from 1996 to 2008

Abstract Background In a classical study, Durkheim noted a direct relation between suicide rates and wealth in the XIX century France. Since that time, several studies have verified this relationship. It is known that suicide rates are associated with income, although the direction of this association varies worldwide. Brazil presents a heterogeneous distribution of income and suicide across its territory; however, evaluation for an association between these variables has shown mixed results. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between suicide rates and income in Brazil, State of São Paulo (SP), and City of SP, considering geographical area and temporal trends. Methods Data were extracted from the National and State official statistics departments. Three socioeconomic areas were considered according to income, from the wealthiest (area 1) to the poorest (area 3). We also considered three regions: country-wide (27 Brazilian States and 558 Brazilian micro-regions), state-wide (645 counties of SP State), and city-wide (96 districts of SP city). Relative risks (RR) were calculated among areas 1, 2, and 3 for all regions, in a cross-sectional approach. Then, we used Joinpoint analysis to explore the temporal trends of suicide rates and SaTScan to investigate geographical clusters of high/low suicide rates across the territory. Results Suicide rates in Brazil, the State of SP, and the city of SP were 6.2, 6.6, and 5.4 per 100,000, respectively. Taking suicide rates of the poorest area (3) as reference, the RR for the wealthiest area was 1.64, 0.88, and 1.65 for Brazil, State of SP, and city of SP, respectively (p for trend <0.05 for all analyses). Spatial cluster of high suicide rates were identified at Brazilian southern (RR = 2.37), state of SP western (RR = 1.32), and city of SP central (RR = 1.65) regions. A direct association between income and suicide were found for Brazil (OR = 2.59) and the city of SP (OR = 1.07), and an inverse association for the state of SP (OR = 0.49). Conclusions Temporospatial analyses revealed higher suicide rates in wealthier areas in Brazil and the city of SP and in poorer areas in the State of SP. We further discuss the role of socioeconomic characteristics for explaining these discrepancies and the importance of our findings in public health policies. Similar studies in other Brazilian States and developing countries are warranted.

Doenças respiratórias e fatores associados: estudo de base populacional em São Paulo, 2008-2009

OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência de bronquite aguda, rinite e sinusite em crianças e adolescentes e identificar fatores associados. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal, de base populacional. Foi realizado inquérito domiciliar com 1.185 crianças e adolescentes de São Paulo, SP, de 2008 a 2009. Os participantes foram selecionados a partir de amostragem probabilística, estratificada por sexo e idade e por conglomerados em dois estágios. Para análise ajustada foi realizada regressão múltipla de Poisson. RESULTADOS: Dos entrevistados, 7,3% referiram bronquite aguda, 22,6% rinite e 15,3% sinusite. Após análise ajustada, associaram-se à bronquite aguda auto-referida: idade de zero a quatro anos (RP = 17,86; IC95%: 3,65;90,91), cinco a nove anos (RP = 37,04; IC95%: 8,13;166,67), dez a 14 anos (RP = 20,83; IC95%: 4,93;90,91), referir ter alergia (RP = 3,12; IC95%: 1,70;5,73), cor da pele preta/parda (RP = 2,29; IC95%: 1,21;4,35) e morar em domicílio com um a três cômodos (RP = 1,85; IC95%: 1,17;2,94); à rinite auto-referida: idade dez a 14 anos (RP = 2,77; IC95%: 1,60;4,78), 15 a 19 anos (RP = 2,58; IC95%: 1,52;4,39), referir ter alergia (RP = 4,32; IC95%: 2,79;6,70), referir ter asma (RP = 2,30; IC95%: 1,30;4,10) e morar em apartamento (RP = 1,70; IC95%: 1,06;2,73); à sinusite auto-referida: idade cinco a nove anos (RP = 2,44; IC95%: 1,09;5,43), dez a 14 anos (RP = 2,99; IC95%: 1,36;6,58), 15 a 19 anos (RP = 3,62; IC95%: 1,68;7,81), referir ter alergia (RP = 2,23; IC95%: 1,41;3,52) e apresentar obesidade (RP = 4,42; IC95%: 1,56;12,50). CONCLUSÕES: As doenças respiratórias foram mais prevalentes em grupos populacionais com características definidas, como grupo etário, doenças auto-referidas, tipo de moradia e obesidade.

Water transfer from São Francisco river to semiarid northeast of Brazil: technical data, environmental impacts, survey of opinion about the amount to be transferred

The transposition of the São Francisco River is considered one of the greatest engineering works in Brazil of all time since it will cross an extensive agricultural region of continental dimensions, involving environmental impacts, water, soil, irrigation, water payment and other multidisciplinary themes. Taking into account its importance, this subject was incorporated into a discipline of UFSCar (Federal University of São Carlos - Brazil) named "Pollution and Environmental Impacts". It was noted strong reaction against the project, even before the presentation. To allow a critical analysis, the first objective was to compile the main technical data and environmental impacts. The second objective was to detect the three most important aspects that cause reaction, concluding for the following reasons: assumption that the volume of water to be transferred was much greater than it actually is proposed in the project; lack of knowledge about similar project already done in Brazil; the idea that the artificial canal to be built was much broader than that proposed by the project. The participants' opinion about "volume to be transferred" was raised quantitatively four times: 2-undergraduate students; 1-graduate; 1-outside community. The average resulted 14 times larger than that proposed in the project, significant according to t-test. It was concluded that the reaction to water transfer project is due in part to the ignorance combined with a preconceived idea that tend to overestimate the magnitude of environmental impacts.

Faturamento de novos produtos na indústria do estado de São Paulo: análise dos fatores de influência

Diversos estudos têm sido realizados no intuito de analisar os impactos da inovação tecnológica no desempenho comercial das empresas. Com isso, este estudo visa analisar os fatores de influência sobre o percentual do faturamento com a venda de novos produtos na indústria do Estado de São Paulo. Trata-se de uma pesquisa com características descritivas e explicativas, cuja abordagem é quantitativa, utilizando dados secundários provindos da Pesquisa de Atividade Econômica Paulista (PAEP), realizada pela Fundação SEADE. Os resultados mostram que os fatores de influência sobre o faturamento provindo de novos produtos são: a origem do capital controlador; a empresa pertencer a um grupo empresarial; o total de pessoal em pesquisa e desenvolvimento; o pessoal alocado diretamente na produção; as fontes de informação para atividades inovativas; e o apoio governamental para a inovação tecnológica.

Avaliação do processo de acolhimento em Saúde Mental na região centro-oeste do município de São Paulo: a relação entre CAPS e UBS em análise

Este trabalho relata a experiência de avaliação do acolhimento em saúde mental na cidade de São Paulo-SP, utilizando entrevistas com trabalhadores de um Centro de Atenção Psicossocial (CAPS) e duas Unidades Básicas de Saúde (UBS). Objetivou entender o acolhimento, considerando a percepção dos trabalhadores e identificando o vínculo e a articulação da rede nesse processo. Utilizou-se como método a hermenêutica filosófica, para identificar que elementos participantes do processo de acolhimento poderiam ser destacados. Procedeu-se à análise das narrativas a partir de três linhas de argumentação: vínculo, acolhimento e articulação da rede - resultando em quatro categorias: sensação de ausência; mistura de modelos; primazia em tecnologias duras; e ineficiência quanto à integralidade. A discussão apontou uma imbricação dessas categorias, colocando o investimento em tecnologias leves como centro do debate para a superação da sensação de ausência, da mistura dos modelos e para construção da integralidade do cuidado.

The phylogeography of trypanosomes from South American alligatorids and African crocodilids is consistent with the geological history of South American river basins and the transoceanic dispersal of Crocodylus at the Miocene

Abstract Background Little is known about the diversity, phylogenetic relationships, and biogeography of trypanosomes infecting non-mammalian hosts. In this study, we investigated the influence of host species and biogeography on shaping the genetic diversity, phylogenetic relationship, and distribution of trypanosomes from South American alligatorids and African crocodilids. Methods Small Subunit rRNA (SSU rRNA) and glycosomal Glyceraldehyde Phosphate Dehydrogenase (gGAPDH) genes were employed for phylogenetic inferences. Trypanosomes from crocodilians were obtained by haemoculturing. Growth behaviour, morphology, and ultrastructural features complement the molecular description of two new species strongly supported by phylogenetic analyses. Results The inferred phylogenies disclosed a strongly supported crocodilian-restricted clade comprising three subclades. The subclade T. grayi comprised the African Trypanosoma grayi from Crocodylus niloticus and tsetse flies. The subclade T. ralphi comprised alligatorid trypanosomes represented by Trypanosoma ralphi n. sp. from Melanosuchus niger, Caiman crocodilus and Caiman yacare from Brazilian river basins. T. grayi and T. ralphi were sister subclades. The basal subclade T. terena comprised alligatorid trypanosomes represented by Trypanosoma terena n. sp. from Ca. yacare sharing hosts and basins with the distantly genetic related T. ralphi. This subclade also included the trypanosome from Ca. crocodilus from the Orinoco basin in Venezuela and, unexpectedly, a trypanosome from the African crocodilian Osteolaemus tetraspis. Conclusion The close relationship between South American and African trypanosomes is consistent with paleontological evidence of recent transoceanic dispersal of Crocodylus at the Miocene/Pliocene boundaries (4–5 mya), and host-switching of trypanosomes throughout the geological configuration of South American hydrographical basins shaping the evolutionary histories of the crocodilians and their trypanosomes.

The phylogeography of trypanosomes from South American alligatorids and African crocodilids is consistent with the geological history of South American river basins and the transoceanic dispersal of Crocodylus at the Miocene

Background: Little is known about the diversity, phylogenetic relationships, and biogeography of trypanosomes infecting non-mammalian hosts. In this study, we investigated the influence of host species and biogeography on shaping the genetic diversity, phylogenetic relationship, and distribution of trypanosomes from South American alligatorids and African crocodilids. Methods: Small Subunit rRNA (SSU rRNA) and glycosomal Glyceraldehyde Phosphate Dehydrogenase (gGAPDH) genes were employed for phylogenetic inferences. Trypanosomes from crocodilians were obtained by haemoculturing. Growth behaviour, morphology, and ultrastructural features complement the molecular description of two new species strongly supported by phylogenetic analyses. Results: The inferred phylogenies disclosed a strongly supported crocodilian-restricted clade comprising three subclades. The subclade T. grayi comprised the African Trypanosoma grayi from Crocodylus niloticus and tsetse flies. The subclade T. ralphi comprised alligatorid trypanosomes represented by Trypanosoma ralphi n. sp. From Melanosuchus niger, Caiman crocodilus and Caiman yacare from Brazilian river basins. T. grayi and T. ralphi were sister subclades. The basal subclade T. terena comprised alligatorid trypanosomes represented by Trypanosoma terena n. sp. from Ca. yacare sharing hosts and basins with the distantly genetic related T. ralphi. This subclade also included the trypanosome from Ca. crocodilus from the Orinoco basin in Venezuela and, unexpectedly, a trypanosome from the African crocodilian Osteolaemus tetraspis. Conclusion: The close relationship between South American and African trypanosomes is consistent with paleontological evidence of recent transoceanic dispersal of Crocodylus at the Miocene/Pliocene boundaries (4–5 mya), and host-switching of trypanosomes throughout the geological configuration of South American hydrographical basins shaping the evolutionary histories of the crocodilians and their trypanosomes.