Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature

Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

Molecular epidemiology of pseudomonas aeruginosae in intensive care units (ICUs) over a 10-year period (1998-2007)

Pseudomonas aeruginosa, une bactérie environnementale ubiquitaire, est un des pathogènes nosocomiaux les plus fréquents aux soins intensifs. La source de ce microorganisme peut être soit endogène, 2,6 à 24 % des patients hospitalisés étant colonisés au niveau digestif, soit exogène. La proportion des cas d'infections à P. aeruginosa d'origine exogène, donc secondaires à une transmission par manuportage ou par l'eau du réseau utilisée pour la toilette ou d'autres soins, reste débattue. Or une meilleure évaluation du taux d'infections exogènes est importante pour la mise en place de mesures de contrôle appropriées. Le but de cette étude était de déterminer sur une période de 10 ans les rôles respectifs des sources exogènes (robinets, autres patients) et endogène dans la colonisation et/ou l'infection par P.aeruginosa chez les patients des Soins Intensifs, ainsi que de documenter les variations épidémiologiques au cours du temps. L'étude a été menée dans les unités de Soins Intensifs du Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV). Les patients colonisés et/ou infectés par P. aeruginosa entre 1998 et 2007ont été identifiés via la base de données du laboratoire de microbiologie. Ils ont été inclus dans l'étude s'ils étaient hospitalisés dans une des unités de Soins Intensifs, Durant cette période, des prélèvements pour recherche de P. aeruginosa ont été effectués sur des robinets des soins intensifs. Un typage moléculaire a été effectué sur toutes les souches cliniques et environnementales isolées en 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004 et 2007. Les patients inclus dans l'étude ont été répartis en quatre catégories (A-D) selon le résultat du typage moléculaire leur souche de P. aeruginosa. La catégorie A inclut les cas pour lesquels le génotype de P. aeruginosa est identique à un des génotypes retrouvé dans l'environnement. La catégorie B comprend les cas pour lesquels le génotype est identique à celui d'au moins un autre patient. La catégorie C comprend les cas avec un génotype unique et la catégorie D comprend les cas pour lesquels la souche était non disponible pour le typage. Les cas des catégories A et B sont considérés comme ayant une origine exogène. Au cours des années de l'étude, le nombre d'admissions aux soins intensifs est resté stable. En moyenne, 86 patients par année ont été identifiés colonisés ou infectés par P. aeruginosa aux Soins Intensifs. Durant la première année d'investigation, un grand nombre de patients colonisés par une souche de P. aeruginosa identique à une de celles retrouvées dans l'environnement a été mis en évidence. Par la suite, possiblement suite à l'augmentation de la température du réseau d'eau chaude, le nombre de cas dans la catégorie A a diminué. Dans la catégorie B, le nombre de cas varie de 1,9 à 20 cas/1000 admissions selon les années. Ce nombre est supérieur à 10 cas/1000 admissions en 1998, 2003 et 2007 et correspond à des situations épidémiques transitoires. Tout au long des 10 ans de l'étude, le nombre de cas dans la catégorie C (source endogène) est demeuré stable et indépendant des variations du nombre de cas dans les catégories A et B. En conclusion, la contribution relative des réservoirs endogène et exogène dans la colonisation et/ou l'infection des patients de soins Intensifs varie au cours du temps. Les facteurs principaux qui contribuent à de telles variations sont probablement le degré de contamination de l'environnement, la compliance des soignants aux mesures de contrôle des infections et la génétique du pathogène lui-même. Etant donné que ce germe est ubiquitaire dans l'environnement aqueux et colonise jusqu'à 15% des patients hospitalisés, la disparition de son réservoir endogène semble difficile. Cependant, cette étude démontre que son contrôle est possible dans l'environnement, notamment dans les robinets en augmentant la température de l'eau. De plus, si une souche multi-résistante est retrouvée de manière répétée dans l'environnement, des efforts doivent être mis en place pour éliminer cette souche. Des efforts doivent être également entrepris afin de limiter la transmission entre les patients, qui est une cause importante et récurrente de contamination exogène. - Pseudomonas aeruginosa is one of the leading nosocomial pathogens in intensive care units (ICUs). The source of this microorganism can be either endogenous or exogenous. The proportion of cases as a result of transmission is still debated, and its elucidation is important for implementing appropriate control measures. To understand the relative importance of exogenous vs. endogenous sources of P. aeru¬ginosa, molecular typing was performed on all available P. aeruginosa isolated from ICU clinical and environmental specimens in 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2007. Patient samples were classified according to their P. aeruginosa genotypes into three categories: (A) identical to isolate from faucet; (B) identical to at least one other patient sample and not found in faucet; and (C) unique genotype. Cases in cat¬egories A and Β were considered as possibly exogenous, and cases in category C as possibly endogenous. A mean of 34 cases per 1000 admissions per year were found to be colonized or infected by P. aeruginosa. Higher levels of faucet contamination were correlated with a higher number of cases in category A. The number of cases in category Β varied from 1.9 to 20 cases per 1000 admissions. This num¬ber exceeded 10/1000 admissions on three occasions and was correlated with an outbreak on one occasion. The number of cases con¬sidered as endogenous (category C) was stable and independent of the number of cases in categories A and B. The present study shows that repeated molecular typing can help identify variations in the epidemiology of P. aeruginosa in ICU patients and guide infection control measures.

The circadian rhythm of the perinatal mortality rate in Switzerland.

The authors examine the relation between the perinatal mortality rate (PMR), birth weight in four categories, and hour of birth throughout the week in Switzerland, using data on 672,013 births and 5,764 perinatal deaths recorded between 1979 and 1987. From Monday to Friday, the PMR follows a circadian rhythm with a regular increase from early morning to evening, with a peak for babies born between 7 and 8 p.m. This pattern of variation has two main components: The circadian rhythms for the proportion of births in the four weight categories and the PMR circadian rhythm for babies weighing more than 2.5 kg. According to a cosinor model, which describes about 40% of the total variation in the PMR, the most important determinants are changes in the proportions of births: Low birth weight increases toward the afternoon and night. Mechanisms underlying the weight-specific timing of birth are discussed, including time selection of birth according to obstetric risks, the direct effect of neonatal and obstetric care, and chronobiologic behavior.

Evalution of Hot Mix Asphalt Moisture Sensitivity Using the Nottingham Asphalt Test Equipment, July 2005

Moisture sensitivity of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) mixtures, generally called stripping, is a major form of distress in asphalt concrete pavement. It is characterized by the loss of adhesive bond between the asphalt binder and the aggregate (a failure of the bonding of the binder to the aggregate) or by a softening of the cohesive bonds within the asphalt binder (a failure within the binder itself), both of which are due to the action of loading under traffic in the presence of moisture. The evaluation of HMA moisture sensitivity has been divided into two categories: visual inspection test and mechanical test. However, most of them have been developed in pre-Superpave mix design. This research was undertaken to develop a protocol for evaluating the moisture sensitivity potential of HMA mixtures using the Nottingham Asphalt Tester (NAT). The mechanisms of HMA moisture sensitivity were reviewed and the test protocols using the NAT were developed. Different types of blends as moisture-sensitive groups and non-moisture-sensitive groups were used to evaluate the potential of the proposed test. The test results were analyzed with three parameters based on performance character: the retained flow number depending on critical permanent deformation failure (RFNP), the retained flow number depending on cohesion failure (RFNC), and energy ratio (ER). Analysis based on energy ratio of elastic strain (EREE ) at flow number of cohesion failure (FNC) has higher potential to evaluate the HMA moisture sensitivity than other parameters. If the measurement error in data-acquisition process is removed, analyses based on RFNP and RFNC would also have high potential to evaluate the HMA moisture sensitivity. The vacuum pressure saturation used in AASHTO T 283 and proposed test has a risk to damage specimen before the load applying.

Cost del tractament del SIDA i d'Hepatitis C per a l'Estat : Comparació de la despesa d'una persona en llibertat vs. un pres

Un dels principals motius que ens va impulsar en l’elecció del tema és que es tracta d’untema que pot despertar curiositat entre la població.Un altre motiu, es que varem trobar que està íntimament relacionat amb els estudis queestem cursant, donat que afecta als pressupostos de l’estat i a la seva restricciópressupostària, i per tant, està directament relacionat amb la macroeconomia. En el nostrecas, reduirem l’àmbit d’estudi al territori català, de manera que estudiarem aquestes duesmalalties dins la despesa en sanitat pública catalana. A demés, estan finançades amb elsnostres impostos, i per tant la seva despesa afecta a la restricció pressupostària delsciutadans.L’elecció d’aquestes malalties no ha estat feta a l’atzar. Inicialment, varem pensar enestudiar els costos dels interns penitenciaris que patien aquestes malalties. Com que laSIDA i d’hepatitis C són les malalties més freqüents dins la presó, i les que tenen unscostos més característics donada la complexitat dels seus tractaments, varem pensar queserien prou representatives.No obstant, a mesura que ens anàvem endinsant en el tema, ens varem adonar que tambéseria molt interessant comparar el cost de les malalties amb el de les persones no recluses, iesbrinar si hi havia algun tipus de cost diferencial. És per això que varem decidir analitzaraquestes dues malalties tant dins com fora.Un altre factor que ens ha impulsat en l’elecció del tema és el fet que el nombre d’interns ales presons té un ritme de creixement constant que s’ha accelerat en els últims anys,sobretot degut a l’augment de la immigració. Això implica un augment progressiu de ladespesa, que es tradueix en una necessitat d’ingressos majors per tal de poder equilibrar larestricció de la qual parlàvem abans.També varem voler anar una mica més lluny i analitzar el pes d’aquestes malalties dins dela despesa que la generalitat ha establert per a la sanitat pública. Com les dues son MDO (malalties de declaració obligatòria ) estan finançades completament pel sector públic.L’objectiu era veure si representaven un cost tant elevat com pensàvem.OBJECTIUS DEL TREBALL:· Demostrar l’elevat cost que suposen certes malalties per l’estat.· Manifestar els canvis en el cost de les malalties amb l’evolució delstractaments.· Analitzar els costos sanitaris extres que es produeixen a les presons.· Destacar l’augment accelerat del nombre d’interns i l’augment del cost sanitarique això suposa. METODOLOGIA: Per tal de poder realitzar l’estudi comparatiu, hem hagut de calcular manualment els costosde les malalties, tot informant-nos del preu dels medicament, les dosis, el cost de lesconsultes externes,etc. A més, per a calcular el cost del tractament dins la presó, ens hemhagut d’informar dels aspectes més generals que envolten a un pres, per poder veure sirealment existeix un cost diferencial respecte la malaltia a l’exterior. Per obtenir aquestesdiverses informacions, ens hem hagut de posar en contacte amb el personal que treballa ala presó que hem pres com a model d’estudi.Així, podem dividir les nostres fonts d’informació en 3 categories:• Obtenció d’informació directament amb el personal de la presó:– Entrevista amb la directora d’infermeria de la Secretaria de ServeisPenitenciaris, Rehabilitació i Justícia Juvenil– Entrevista amb la Cap d’infermeria del Centre Quatre Camins.• Informació a partir de mostres facilitades pels propis funcionaris de la presó• Informació a partir d’estudis sobre el tema i de dades oficials, concretament lesdades oficials sobre els Pressupostos de la Generalitat.

A Typology of Identity-Related Crime

Identification is ever more important in the online world, and identity-related crime is a growing problem related to this. This new category of crime is not restricted to high-profile instances of identity 'theft' or identity fraud; it is wide-ranging and complex, ranging from identity deletion to unlawful identity creation and identity 'theft'. Commonly accepted definitions are lacking, thus blurring available statistics, and policies to combat this new crime are piecemeal at best. To assess the real nature and magnitude of identity-related crime, and to be able to discuss how it can be combated, identity-related crime should be understood in all its aspects. As a first key step, this article introduces a typology of identity-related crime, consisting of conceptual, technical and legal categories, that can be used as a comprehensive framework for future research, countermeasures and policies related to identity related crime.

“IF ONLY I COULD�? ~ “THERE IS ALWAYS A LOOPHOLE"? Hope and hopelessness experienced by the severely depressive and nondepressive

The aim of this research was to structure a conceptual model of hope and hopelessness based on dictionary definitions, and to verify this model on the basis of the experiences of the severely depressive and non-depressive elderly. This research has produced a substantive theory of hope and hopelessness which is based on the experiences of the depressive and non-depressive elderly, and on the concept analysis of hope and hopelessness based on English dictionary definitions. The patients who participated in the research were 65 years old and older men and women (n=22) who had been admitted to a psychiatric hospital because of major depression, and another group: the non-depressive elderly (n=21), who were recruited from the pensioners’ clubs. The data were collected in interviews using the Clinical Assessment Tool, developed by Farran, Salloway and Clark (1990) and Farran, Wilken and Popovich (1992), and it produced 553 pages of written text, which were analysed using the ATLAS/ti programme. ATLAS/ti is a tool for analysing qualitative data and is based on Grounded Theory. The medical and nursing records of the depressive elderly completed source triangulation. The concept analysis of hope and hopelessness was made on the basis of the definitions of English dictionaries (n=103), using semantic analysis and the ATLAS/ti programme. The most important hope-promoting factors were human relations, health and managing in everyday living. Autonomy, self-determination and feeling of security were highly appreciated among the elderly. Hopelessness, on the other hand, was most often associated with the same factors: human relations, health and everyday living. Especially, losses of significant others were experienced as strongly hope-diminishing. Old age had brought freedom from duties concerning others, but now, when you finally had an opportunity to enjoy yourself, you could not accomplish anything; you were clasped in the arms of total inability, depression had come. The most obvious difference in the life course of the depressive and nondepressive elderly was the abundance of traumatic experiences in the childhood and youth of the depressive elderly. The continuous circulation of fearful thoughts was almost touchable, and suicidality was described in connection with these thoughts. You were afraid to be awake and also to go to sleep. Managing day by day was the goal. The research produced the Basic Social Process (BSP) of hope: achieving - maintaining - losing, which expresses a continuous balancing between Being without and Being with. The importance of the object of hope was combined with the amount of hope and disappointment. The process of approaching defined the realisation of hope and the process of withdrawal that of losing. Joy and security versus grief and insecurity defined the Being with and Being without. Two core categories were found. The first one “If only I could�? reflects lack of energy, lack of knowledge, lack of courage and lack of ability. The other one “There is always a loophole�? reflects deliberate tracing of possibilities and the belief in finding solutions, and managing.

Appropriate management of special situations in Crohn's disease (upper gastro-intestinal; extra-intestinal manifestations; drug safety during pregnancy and breastfeeding): results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel-EPACT II

Introduction: High-grade evidence is lacking for most therapeutic decisions in Crohn's disease. Appropriateness criteria were developed for upper gastro-intestinal, extra-intestinal manifestations and drug safety during conception, pregnancy and breastfeeding in patients with Crohn's disease, to assist the physician in clinical decision making. Methods: The European Panel on the Appropriateness of Crohn's Disease Therapy (EPACT II), a multidisciplinary international European expert panel, rated clinical scenarios based on evidence from the published literature and panelists' own clinical expertise. Median ratings (on a 9-point scale) were stratified into three categories: appropriate (7-9), uncertain (4-6 with or without disagreement) and inappropriate (1-3). Experts were also asked to rank appropriate medications by priority. Results: Proton pump inhibitors, steroids, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine and infliximab are appropriate for upper gastro-duodenal Crohn's disease; for stenosis, endoscopic balloon dilation is the first-tine therapy, although surgery is also appropriate. Ursodeoxycholic acid is the only appropriate treatment for primary sclerosing cholangitis. Infliximab is appropriate for Pyoderma gangrenosum, ankylosing spondylitis and uveitis, steroids for Pyoderma gangrenosum and ankylosing spondylitis, adalimumab for Pyoderma gangrenosum and ankylosing spondylitis, cyclosporine-A/tacrolimus for Pyoderma gangrenosum. Mesalamine, sulfasalazine, prednisone, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine, ciprofloxacin, and probiotics, may be administered safety during pregnancy or for patients wishing to conceive, with the exception that mate patients considering conception should avoid sulfasalazine. Metronidazol is considered safe in the 2nd and 3rd trimesters whereas infliximab is rated safe in the 1st trimester but uncertain in the 2nd and 3rd trimesters. Methotrexate is always contraindicated at conception, during pregnancy or during breastfeeding, due to its known teratogenicity. Mesalamine, prednisone, probiotics and infliximab are considered safe during breastfeeding. Conclusion: EPACT II recommendations are freely available online (www.epact.ch). The validity of these criteria should now be tested by prospective evaluation. (C) 2009 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Absence of progression as assessed by response evaluation criteria in solid tumors predicts survival in advanced GI stromal tumors treated with imatinib mesylate: the intergroup EORTC-ISG-AGITG phase III trial.

PURPOSE: From February 2001 to February 2002, 946 patients with advanced GI stromal tumors (GISTs) treated with imatinib were included in a controlled EORTC/ISG/AGITG (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Italian Sarcoma Group/Australasian Gastro-Intestinal Trials Group) trial. This analysis investigates whether the response classification assessed by RECIST (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors), predicts for time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Per protocol, the first three disease assessments were done at 2, 4, and 6 months. For the purpose of the analysis (landmark method), disease response was subclassified in six categories: partial response (PR; > 30% size reduction), minor response (MR; 10% to 30% reduction), no change (NC) as either NC- (0% to 10% reduction) or NC+ (0% to 20% size increase), progressive disease (PD; > 20% increase/new lesions), and subjective PD (clinical progression). RESULTS: A total of 906 patients had measurable disease at entry. At all measurement time points, complete response (CR), PR, and MR resulted in similar TTP and OS; this was also true for NC- and NC+, and for PD and subjective PD. Patients were subsequently classified as responders (CR/PR/MR), NC (NC+/NC-), or PD. This three-class response categorization was found to be highly predictive of further progression or survival for the first two measurement points. After 6 months of imatinib, responders (CR/PR/MR) had the same survival prognosis as patients classified as NC. CONCLUSION: RECIST perfectly enables early discrimination between patients who benefited long term from imatinib and those who did not. After 6 months of imatinib, if the patient is not experiencing PD, the pattern of radiologic response by tumor size criteria has no prognostic value for further outcome. Imatinib needs to be continued as long as there is no progression according to RECIST.

The Standard Biplot

Biplots are graphical displays of data matrices based on the decomposition of a matrix as the product of two matrices. Elements of these two matrices are used as coordinates for the rows and columns of the data matrix, with an interpretation of the joint presentation that relies on the properties of the scalar product. Because the decomposition is not unique, there are several alternative ways to scale the row and column points of the biplot, which can cause confusion amongst users, especially when software packages are not united in their approach to this issue. We propose a new scaling of the solution, called the standard biplot, which applies equally well to a wide variety of analyses such as correspondence analysis, principal component analysis, log-ratio analysis and the graphical results of a discriminant analysis/MANOVA, in fact to any method based on the singular-value decomposition. The standard biplot also handles data matrices with widely different levels of inherent variance. Two concepts taken from correspondence analysis are important to this idea: the weighting of row and column points, and the contributions made by the points to the solution. In the standard biplot one set of points, usually the rows of the data matrix, optimally represent the positions of the cases or sample units, which are weighted and usually standardized in some way unless the matrix contains values that are comparable in their raw form. The other set of points, usually the columns, is represented in accordance with their contributions to the low-dimensional solution. As for any biplot, the projections of the row points onto vectors defined by the column points approximate the centred and (optionally) standardized data. The method is illustrated with several examples to demonstrate how the standard biplot copes in different situations to give a joint map which needs only one common scale on the principal axes, thus avoiding the problem of enlarging or contracting the scale of one set of points to make the biplot readable. The proposal also solves the problem in correspondence analysis of low-frequency categories that are located on the periphery of the map, giving the false impression that they are important.

Optimizing a remotely sensed proxy for plankton biomass in Lake Kivu

Many regions of the world, including inland lakes, present with suboptimal conditions for the remotely sensed retrieval of optical signals, thus challenging the limits of available satellite data-processing tools, such as atmospheric correction models (ACM) and water constituent-retrieval (WCR) algorithms. Working in such regions, however, can improve our understanding of remote-sensing tools and their applicabil- ity in new contexts, in addition to potentially offering useful information about aquatic ecology. Here, we assess and compare 32 combinations of two ACMs, two WCRs, and three binary categories of data quality standards to optimize a remotely sensed proxy of plankton biomass in Lake Kivu. Each parameter set is compared against the available ground-truth match-ups using Spearman's right-tailed ρ. Focusing on the best sets from each ACM-WCR combination, their performances are discussed with regard to data distribution, sample size, spatial completeness, and seasonality. The results of this study may be of interest both for ecological studies on Lake Kivu and for epidemio- logical studies of disease, such as cholera, the dynamics of which has been associated with plankton biomass in other regions of the world.

Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

Measures of fit in multiple correspondence analysis of crisp and fuzzy coded data

When continuous data are coded to categorical variables, two types of coding are possible: crisp coding in the form of indicator, or dummy, variables with values either 0 or 1; or fuzzy coding where each observation is transformed to a set of "degrees of membership" between 0 and 1, using co-called membership functions. It is well known that the correspondence analysis of crisp coded data, namely multiple correspondence analysis, yields principal inertias (eigenvalues) that considerably underestimate the quality of the solution in a low-dimensional space. Since the crisp data only code the categories to which each individual case belongs, an alternative measure of fit is simply to count how well these categories are predicted by the solution. Another approach is to consider multiple correspondence analysis equivalently as the analysis of the Burt matrix (i.e., the matrix of all two-way cross-tabulations of the categorical variables), and then perform a joint correspondence analysis to fit just the off-diagonal tables of the Burt matrix - the measure of fit is then computed as the quality of explaining these tables only. The correspondence analysis of fuzzy coded data, called "fuzzy multiple correspondence analysis", suffers from the same problem, albeit attenuated. Again, one can count how many correct predictions are made of the categories which have highest degree of membership. But here one can also defuzzify the results of the analysis to obtain estimated values of the original data, and then calculate a measure of fit in the familiar percentage form, thanks to the resultant orthogonal decomposition of variance. Furthermore, if one thinks of fuzzy multiple correspondence analysis as explaining the two-way associations between variables, a fuzzy Burt matrix can be computed and the same strategy as in the crisp case can be applied to analyse the off-diagonal part of this matrix. In this paper these alternative measures of fit are defined and applied to a data set of continuous meteorological variables, which are coded crisply and fuzzily into three categories. Measuring the fit is further discussed when the data set consists of a mixture of discrete and continuous variables.

Altruism, Equity, and Reciprocity in a Gift-Exchange Experiment: An Encompassing Approach

Considerable experimental evidence suggests that non-pecuniary motives must be addressed when modeling behavior in economic contexts. Recent models of non-pecuniary motives can be classified as either altruism- based, equity-based, or reciprocity-based. We estimate and compare leading approaches in these categories, using experimental data. We then offer a flexible approach that nests the above three approaches, thereby allowing for nested hypothesis testing and for determining the relative strength of each of the competing theories. In addition, the encompassing approach provides a functional form for utility in different settings without the restrictive nature of the approaches nested within it. Using this flexible form for nested tests, we find that intentional reciprocity, distributive concerns, and altruistic considerations all play a significant role in players' decisions.

Women working at university restaurants: life and work conditions and gender-based violence

This is an exploratory and descriptive study with a quantitative approach that aimed to understand the social production and reproduction processes of women working at university restaurants and the occurrence and the magnitude of gender-based violence committed against them by their intimate partners. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews. The analysis categories used were social production and reproduction, gender and gender-based violence. The interviewees held a subordinate social position during the productive and reproductive periods of their lives. Approximately 70% reported having experienced gender-based violence from an intimate partner (66% psychological violence, 36.3% physical violence and 28.6% sexual violence). Most of the health problems resulting from violence were related to mental health. The results indicate that the situation requires immediate interventions, mostly guided by the instrumentalization of these women and the support by the state and the university as appropriate to address violence.