Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

Characterizing transport through a crowded environment with different obstacle sizes

Transport through crowded environments is often classified as anomalous, rather than classical, Fickian diffusion. Several studies have sought to describe such transport processes using either a continuous time random walk or fractional order differential equation. For both these models the transport is characterized by a parameter α, where α = 1 is associated with Fickian diffusion and α < 1 is associated with anomalous subdiffusion. Here, we simulate a single agent migrating through a crowded environment populated by impenetrable, immobile obstacles and estimate α from mean squared displacement data. We also simulate the transport of a population of such agents through a similar crowded environment and match averaged agent density profiles to the solution of a related fractional order differential equation to obtain an alternative estimate of α. We examine the relationship between our estimate of α and the properties of the obstacle field for both a single agent and a population of agents; we show that in both cases, α decreases as the obstacle density increases, and that the rate of decrease is greater for smaller obstacles. Our work suggests that it may be inappropriate to model transport through a crowded environment using widely reported approaches including power laws to describe the mean squared displacement and fractional order differential equations to represent the averaged agent density profiles.

Sampling designs on stream networks using the pseudo-Bayesian approach

Monitoring stream networks through time provides important ecological information. The sampling design problem is to choose locations where measurements are taken so as to maximise information gathered about physicochemical and biological variables on the stream network. This paper uses a pseudo-Bayesian approach, averaging a utility function over a prior distribution, in finding a design which maximizes the average utility. We use models for correlations of observations on the stream network that are based on stream network distances and described by moving average error models. Utility functions used reflect the needs of the experimenter, such as prediction of location values or estimation of parameters. We propose an algorithmic approach to design with the mean utility of a design estimated using Monte Carlo techniques and an exchange algorithm to search for optimal sampling designs. In particular we focus on the problem of finding an optimal design from a set of fixed designs and finding an optimal subset of a given set of sampling locations. As there are many different variables to measure, such as chemical, physical and biological measurements at each location, designs are derived from models based on different types of response variables: continuous, counts and proportions. We apply the methodology to a synthetic example and the Lake Eacham stream network on the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, Australia. We show that the optimal designs depend very much on the choice of utility function, varying from space filling to clustered designs and mixtures of these, but given the utility function, designs are relatively robust to the type of response variable.

Regulating integrated advertising

This chapter approaches integrated advertising as a practice that is continuous with advertising history, rather than a phenomenon associated with new technologies. Competition for technology-enabled audiences in expanding media and entertainment markets is nonetheless an important factor in the turn to integrated advertising and marketing strategies in recent years. While integrated advertising provides solutions for advertisers, it is problematic for media consumers because it is not always distinguishable from surrounding program content and clearly identifiable as advertising. It creates opportunities for advertisers to fly below the radar of citizen and consumer awareness of commercial and political influences in media content, and for this reason has been constrained by regulation. Media regulators have come to play an important role in striking a balance between public and private interests in commercial media by setting and adjudicating the limits of integrated advertising practices. This chapter looks at how broadcasting regulators have responded to the challenges of regulating integrated advertising in commercial radio in three different territories (United States, United Kingdom and Australia). It draws attention to the ways in which integrated advertising simultaneously drives innovation in media genres and forms, as well as de-regulation of the influence exercised by advertisers in commercial media content.

The effect of three different (-135°C) whole body cryotherapy exposure durations on elite rugby league players

Background: Whole body cryotherapy (WBC) is the therapeutic application of extreme cold air for a short duration. Minimal evidence is available for determining optimal exposure time. Purpose: To explore whether the length of WBC exposure induces differential changes in inflammatory markers, tissue oxygenation, skin and core temperature, thermal sensation and comfort. Method: This study was a randomised cross over design with participants acting as their own control. Fourteen male professional first team super league rugby players were exposed to 1, 2, and 3 minutes of WBC at -135°C. Testing took place the day after a competitive league fixture, each exposure separated by seven days. Results: No significant changes were found in the inflammatory cytokine interleukin six. Significant reductions (p<0.05) in deoxyhaemoglobin for gastrocnemius and vastus lateralis were found. In vastus lateralis significant reductions (p<0.05) in oxyhaemoglobin and tissue oxygenation index (p<0.05) were demonstrated. Significant reductions (p<0.05) in skin temperature were recorded. No significant changes were recorded in core temperature. Significant reductions (p<0.05) in thermal sensation and comfort were recorded. Conclusion: Three brief exposures to WBC separated by 1 week are not sufficient to induce physiological changes in IL-6 or core temperature. There are however significant changes in tissue oxyhaemoglobin, deoxyhaemoglobin, tissue oxygenation index, skin temperature and thermal sensation. We conclude that a 2 minute WBC exposure was the optimum exposure length at temperatures of -135°C and could be applied as the basis for future studies.

Clinical and radiographic outcomes of acetabular impaction grafting without cage reinforcement for revision hip replacement : a minimum ten-year follow-up study

Impaction bone grafting for reconstitution of bone stock in revision hip surgery has been used for nearly 30 years. We used this technique, in combination with a cemented acetabular component, in the acetabula of 304 hips in 292 patients revised for aseptic loosening between 1995 and 2001. The only additional supports used were stainless steel meshes placed against the medial wall or laterally around the acetabular rim to contain the graft. All Paprosky grades of defect were included. Clinical and radiographic outcomes were collected in surviving patients at a minimum of 10 years following the index operation. Mean follow-up was 12.4 years (SD 1.5; range 10.0-16.0). Kaplan-Meier survivorship with revision for aseptic loosening as the endpoint was 85.9% (95% CI 81.0 to 90.8%) at 13.5 years. Clinical scores for pain relief remained satisfactory, and there was no difference in clinical scores between cups that appeared stable and those that appeared loose radiographically.

Results using Trabecular Metal™ augments in combination with acetabular impaction bone grafting in deficient acetabula

We examined whether the use of trabecular metal wedges to fill segmental defects is an effective method of socket reconstruction when used in combination with impaction grafting and implantation of a cemented socket. Fifteen hips in 14 patients underwent impaction grafting in combination with a TM wedge with a minimum of 2 years follow-up. All patients had their defects assessed using the Paprosky classification. Patients were reviewed with x-rays and migration of the implant was measured. Outcome scores were also collected. Mean follow-up was 39 months (25-83). The mean age at surgery was 67.8 (49-85) years. Seven of the patients had previously undergone impaction grafting with the use of a stainless steel rim mesh to constrain the graft. None of the patients had failed either clinically or radiologically.

Overview of INEX 2013

INEX investigates focused retrieval from structured documents by providing large test collections of structured documents, uniform evaluation measures, and a forum for organizations to compare their results. This paper reports on the INEX 2013 evaluation campaign, which consisted of four activities addressing three themes: searching professional and user generated data (Social Book Search track); searching structured or semantic data (Linked Data track); and focused retrieval (Snippet Retrieval and Tweet Contextualization tracks). INEX 2013 was an exciting year for INEX in which we consolidated the collaboration with (other activities in) CLEF and for the second time ran our workshop as part of the CLEF labs in order to facilitate knowledge transfer between the evaluation forums. This paper gives an overview of all the INEX 2013 tracks, their aims and task, the built test-collections, and gives an initial analysis of the results

People living in hilly residential areas in metropolitan Perth have less diabetes : spurious association or important environmental determinant?

BACKGROUND: Variations in 'slope' (how steep or flat the ground is) may be good for health. As walking up hills is a physiologically vigorous physical activity and can contribute to weight control, greater neighbourhood slopes may provide a protective barrier to weight gain, and help prevent Type 2 diabetes onset. We explored whether living in 'hilly' neighbourhoods was associated with diabetes prevalence among the Australian adult population. METHODS: Participants ([greater than or equal to]25years; n=11,406) who completed the Western Australian Health and Wellbeing Surveillance System Survey (2003-2009) were asked whether or not they had medically-diagnosed diabetes. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software was used to calculate a neighbourhood mean slope score, and other built environment measures at 1600m around each participant's home. Logistic regression models were used to predict the odds of self-reported diabetes after progressive adjustment for individual measures (i.e., age, sex), socioeconomic status (i.e., education, income), built environment, destinations, nutrition, and amount of walking. RESULTS: After full adjustment, the odds of self-reported diabetes was 0.72 (95% CI 0.55-0.95) and 0.52 (95% CI 0.39-0.69) for adults living in neighbourhoods with moderate and higher levels of slope, respectively, compared with adults living in neighbourhoods with the lowest levels of slope. The odds of having diabetes was 13% lower (odds ratio 0.87; 95% CI 0.80-0.94) for each increase of one percent in mean slope. CONCLUSIONS: Living in a hilly neighbourhood may be protective of diabetes onset or this finding is spurious. Nevertheless, the results are promising and have implications for future research and the practice of flattening land in new housing developments.

The impact of the built environment on health across the life course : design of a cross-sectional data linkage study

Introduction: The built environment is increasingly recognised as being associated with health outcomes. Relationships between the built environment and health differ among age groups, especially between children and adults, but also between younger, mid-age and older adults. Yet few address differences across life stage groups within a single population study. Moreover, existing research mostly focuses on physical activity behaviours, with few studying objective clinical and mental health outcomes. The Life Course Built Environment and Health (LCBEH) project explores the impact of the built environment on self-reported and objectively measured health outcomes in a random sample of people across the life course. Methods and analysis: This cross-sectional data linkage study involves 15 954 children (0–15 years), young adults (16–24 years), adults (25–64 years) and older adults (65+years) from the Perth metropolitan region who completed the Health and Wellbeing Surveillance System survey administered by the Department of Health of Western Australia from 2003 to 2009. Survey data were linked to Western Australia's (WA) Hospital Morbidity Database System (hospital admission) and Mental Health Information System (mental health system outpatient) data. Participants’ residential address was geocoded and features of their ‘neighbourhood’ were measured using Geographic Information Systems software. Associations between the built environment and self-reported and clinical health outcomes will be explored across varying geographic scales and life stages. Ethics and dissemination: The University of Western Australia's Human Research Ethics Committee and the Department of Health of Western Australia approved the study protocol (#2010/1). Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at local, national and international conferences, thus contributing to the evidence base informing the design of healthy neighbourhoods for all residents.

The impact of neighborhood walkability on walking : does it differ across adult life stage and does neighborhood buffer size matter?

We explored the impact of neighborhood walkability on young adults, early-middle adults, middle-aged adults, and older adults' walking across different neighborhood buffers. Participants completed the Western Australian Health and Wellbeing Surveillance System Survey (2003–2009) and were allocated a neighborhood walkability score at 200 m, 400 m, 800 m, and 1600 m around their home. We found little difference in strength of associations across neighborhood size buffers for all life stages. We conclude that neighborhood walkability supports more walking regardless of adult life stage and is relevant for small (e.g., 200 m) and larger (e.g., 1600 m) neighborhood buffers.

An investigation of schizotypy in injecting amphetamine users

A fully dimensional view of psychiatric disorder conceptualises schizotypy as both a continuous personality trait and an underlying vulnerability to the development of psychotic illness. Such a model would predict that the structure of schizotypal traits would closely parallel the structure of schizophrenia or psychosis. This was investigated in injecting amphetamine users (N = 322), a clinical population who have high rates of acute psychotic episodes and subclinical schizotypal experiences. Schizotypy was assessed using the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences (O-LIFE), and psychotic symptoms were assessed using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). Using confirmatory factor analysis, O-LIFE subscale scores were mapped onto latent variables with their more clinical counterparts from the BPRS. A four-factor model comprising positive schizotypy, disorganisation, negative schizotypy, and disinhibition provided the best model fit, consistent with prior research into the structure of schizotypy. The model provided a good fit to the data, lending support to the theory that schizotypy and psychotic symptoms map onto common underlying dimensions.

The relationship between cannabis outcome expectancies and cannabis refusal self-efficacy in a treatment population

Background and aims Self-efficacy beliefs and outcome expectancies are central to Social Cognitive Theory (SCT). Alcohol studies demonstrate the theoretical and clinical utility of applying both SCT constructs. This study examined the relationship between refusal self-efficacy and outcome expectancies in a sample of cannabis users, and tested formal mediational models. Design Patients referred for cannabis treatment completed a comprehensive clinical assessment, including recently validated cannabis expectancy and refusal self-efficacy scales. Setting A hospital alcohol and drug out-patient clinic. Participants Patients referred for a cannabis treatment [n = 1115, mean age 26.29, standard deviation (SD) 9.39]. Measurements The Cannabis Expectancy Questionnaire (CEQ) and Cannabis Refusal Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (CRSEQ) were completed, along with measures of cannabis severity [Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS)] and cannabis consumption. Findings Positive (β = −0.29, P < 0.001) and negative (β = −0.19, P < 0.001) cannabis outcome expectancies were associated significantly with refusal self-efficacy. Refusal self-efficacy, in turn, fully mediated the association between negative expectancy and weekly consumption [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.03, 0.17] and partially mediated the effect of positive expectancy on weekly consumption (95% CI = 0.06, 0.17). Conclusions Consistent with Social Cognitive Theory, refusal self-efficacy (a person's belief that he or she can abstain from cannabis use) mediates part of the association between cannabis outcome expectancies (perceived consequences of cannabis use) and cannabis use.

Comparing methods for modelling spreading cell fronts

Spreading cell fronts play an essential role in many physiological processes. Classically, models of this process are based on the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation; however, such continuum representations are not always suitable as they do not explicitly represent behaviour at the level of individual cells. Additionally, many models examine only the large time asymptotic behaviour, where a travelling wave front with a constant speed has been established. Many experiments, such as a scratch assay, never display this asymptotic behaviour, and in these cases the transient behaviour must be taken into account. We examine the transient and asymptotic behaviour of moving cell fronts using techniques that go beyond the continuum approximation via a volume-excluding birth-migration process on a regular one-dimensional lattice. We approximate the averaged discrete results using three methods: (i) mean-field, (ii) pair-wise, and (iii) one-hole approximations. We discuss the performace of these methods, in comparison to the averaged discrete results, for a range of parameter space, examining both the transient and asymptotic behaviours. The one-hole approximation, based on techniques from statistical physics, is not capable of predicting transient behaviour but provides excellent agreement with the asymptotic behaviour of the averaged discrete results, provided that cells are proliferating fast enough relative to their rate of migration. The mean-field and pair-wise approximations give indistinguishable asymptotic results, which agree with the averaged discrete results when cells are migrating much more rapidly than they are proliferating. The pair-wise approximation performs better in the transient region than does the mean-field, despite having the same asymptotic behaviour. Our results show that each approximation only works in specific situations, thus we must be careful to use a suitable approximation for a given system, otherwise inaccurate predictions could be made.