Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy

The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff between complexity, spatial resolution, simulation length, and ensemble size. The methods used to assess climate impacts are examined in the context of this trade-off. An emphasis on complexity allows simulation of coupled mechanisms, such as the carbon cycle and feedbacks between agricultural land management and climate. In addition to improving skill, greater spatial resolution increases relevance to regional planning. Greater ensemble size improves the sampling of probabilities. Research from major international projects is used to show the importance of synergistic research efforts. The primary climate impact examined is crop yield, although many of the issues discussed are relevant to hydrology and health modeling. Methods used to bridge the scale gap between climate and crop models are reviewed. Recent advances include large-area crop modeling, quantification of uncertainty in crop yield, and fully integrated crop–climate modeling. The implications of trends in computer power, including supercomputers, are also discussed.

The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management

A review of the implications of climate change for freshwater resources, based on Chapter 4 of Working Group 2, IPCC.

Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proceedings of the West Africa Built Environment Research (WABER) Conference 2010

FOREWORD Welcome to this West Africa Built Environment Research (WABER) conference taking place here in Ghana. Thank you for coming and welcome to Accra. The main aims of the WABER conference are: to help young researchers and early-career scholars in West Africa to develop their research work and skills through constructive face-to-face interaction with experienced academics; to provide a platform for networking and collaborative work among senior built environment academics in West Africa; and to serve as a vehicle for developing the field of construction management and economics in Africa. Waber 2009 The WABER event in 2009 was held at the British Council in Accra, Ghana on 2-3 June. The event was a resounding success. It attracted participation from 32 researchers, from 12 different institutions, who presented their work to an audience of approximately 100 people. Each presenter received immediate and constructive feedback from an international panel. The event was opened by Professor K.K. Adarkwa, Vice Chancellor of KNUST, Kumasi, Ghana, with several senior academics and researchers from universities, polytechnics, and other institutions in Ghana and Nigeria in attendance. There was also a significant level of attendance by senior construction practitioners in Ghana. Thank you to the School of Construction Management and Engineering, University of Reading, UK for funding the inaugural event in 2009. We are also grateful to all of you who helped to make the event a success and to those of you who have joined us here today to build upon the success and legacy of WABER 2009. Waber 2010 This year, we have 60+ peer-reviewed papers and presentations on topics relating to Building services and maintenance, Construction costs, Construction design and technology, Construction education, Construction finance, Construction procurement, Contract administration, Contract management, Contractor development, Decision support systems, Dispute resolution, Economic development, Energy efficiency, Environment and sustainability, Health and safety, Human resources, Information technology, Marketing, Materials science, Organisation strategy and business performance, Productivity, Project management, Quantity surveying, Real estate and planning, Solar energy systems, Supply chain management and Urban development. We hope that these papers will generate interest among delagates and stimulate discussion here and beyond the conference into the wider community of academia and industry. The delegates at this conference come from 10 different countries. This provides a rich international and multicultural blend and a perfect platform for networking and developing collaborations. This year we are blessed to have three high profile keynote speakers in the persons of Professor George Ofori (National University of Singapore), Dr Roine Leiringer (University of Reading, UK) and Professor Will Hughes (University of Reading, UK). We are also thankful to Dr Chris Harty (University of Reading, UK) who is facilitating the Research Skills Workshop on ‘Writing a scientific article’. Thank you to Dr Sena Agyepong of our conference organising team for her capable management of local organising arrangements. And above all, thank you to all of you for coming to this conference. Enjoy and have a safe journey back home. Dr Samuel Laryea School of Construction Management and Engineering University of Reading, July 2010

A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

Influence of agricultural management, sward structure and food resources on grassland field use by birds in lowland England.

Agricultural management of grassland in lowland Britain has changed fundamentally in the last 50 years, resulting in spatial and structural uniformity within the pastoral landscape. The full extent to which these changes may have reduced the suitability of grassland as foraging habitat for birds is unknown. This study investigated the mechanisms by which these changes have impacted on birds and their food supplies. We quantified field use by birds in summer and winter in two grassland areas of lowland England (Devon and Buckinghamshire) over 3 years, relating bird occurrence to the management, sward structure and seed and invertebrate food resources of individual fields. Management intensity was defined in terms of annual nitrogen input. There was no consistent effect of management intensity on total seed head production, although those of grasses generally increased with inputs while forbs were rare throughout. Relationships between management intensity and abundance of soil and epigeal invertebrates were complex. Soil beetle larvae were consistently lower in abundance, and surface-active beetle larvae counts consistently higher, in intensively managed fields. Foliar invertebrates showed more consistent negatively relationships with management intensity. Most bird species occurred at low densities. There were consistent relationships across regions and years between the occurrence of birds and measures of field management. In winter, there was a tendency towards higher occupancy of intensively managed fields by species feeding on soil invertebrates. In summer, there were few such relationships, although many species avoided fields with tall swards. Use of fields by birds was generally not related to measures of seed or invertebrate food abundance. While granivorous species were perhaps too rare to detect a relationship, in insectivores the strong negative relationships (in summer) with sward height suggested that access to food may be the critical factor. While it appears that intensification of grassland management has been deleterious to the summer food resources of insectivorous birds that use insects living within the grass sward, intensification may have been beneficial to several species in winter through the enhancement of soil invertebrates. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that attempts to restore habitat quality for birds in grassland landscapes need to create a range of management intensities and sward structures at the field and farm scales. A greater understanding of methods to enhance prey accessibility, as well as abundance, for insectivorous birds is required.

International public goods through integrated natural resources management research in CGIAR partnerships

The CGIAR System conducts research to produce international public goods (IPG) that are of wide applicability creating a scientific base which speeds and broadens local adaptive development. Integrated natural resources management (INRM) research is sometimes seen to be very location specific and consequently does not lend itself readily to the production of IPGs. In this paper we analyse ways in which strategic approaches to INRM research can have broad international applicability and serve as useful foundations for the development of locally adapted technologies. The paper describes the evolution of the IPG concept within the CGIAR and elaborates on five major types of IPGs that have been generated from a varied set of recent INRM research efforts. CGIAR networks have both strengths and weaknesses in INRM research and application, with enormous differences in relative research and development capacities, responsibilities and data access of its partners, making programme process evolution critical to acceptance and participation. Many of the lessons learnt regarding challenges and corresponding IPG research approaches are relevant to designing and managing future multi-scale, multi-locational, coordinated INRM programmes involving broad-based partnerships to address complex environmental and livelihood problems for development.

Biodiversity versus emergencies: the impact of restocking on animal genetic resources after disaster

Restocking is a favoured option in supporting livelihoods after a disaster. With the depletion of local livestock populations, the introduction of new species and breeds will clearly affect biodiversity. Nevertheless, the impact of restocking on Animal Genetic Resources has been largely ignored. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to examine the consequences of restocking on biodiversity via a simple model. Utilising a hypothetical project based on cattle, the model demonstrates that more than one-third of the population was related to the original restocked animals after three generations. Under conditions of random breed selection, the figure declined to 20 per cent. The tool was then applied to a donor-led restocking project implemented in Bosnia-Herzegovina. By restocking primarily with Simmental cattle, the model demonstrated that the implementation of a single restocking project is likely to have accelerated the decline of the indigenous Busa breed by a further nine per cent. Thus, greater awareness of the long-term implications of restocking on biodiversity is required.