Triple bill of choreographic radiance

Review of 3 choreographers : George Balanchine, Jii Kylian and Wayne McGregor

Submission to the New Zealand Parliamentary Inquiry : New Zealand Convention Centre Bill 2013

The Bill outlines the overarching purpose of the NZICC Agreement ‘to provide economic benefits to New Zealanders’. It is really a form of PPP (Public Private Partnership) where the beneficiaries are said to be the Crown and SkyCity but the real payment comes from the losses of the (mainly) community members who will gamble on the expanded facilities outlined in the Agreement. The Howeth International Convention and Exhibition Centre study (2009) established a clear business case for an international convention centre; with an optimistic benefit-cost ratio of 1.433 (which translates into a benefit to the economy of $1.433
for ever $1 spent). Aside from the short-term stimulus to jobs of the construction phase, a convention centre with capacity for 1000 delegates would create about 800 new jobs and attract up to 35 additional conferences of between 150 and 2500 delegates per year (an additional 22,000 additional international visitors and more than 200,000 extra visitor days, worth approximately $85.4 million in tourism-related expenditure per year15. It is therefore questionable as to why this venture needs to be captured by gambling interests, which will also dictate the location. This points to the efficacy of a non-casino provider being able to tender for establishment of an International Convention Centre that could be run profitably without being part of the for-profit model based on expanded gambling machines/revenue.

Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant empirical evidence in support of this assumption. Thus, in this paper we test if the forecast of the three month T-bill rate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is consistent with least squares learning when there are discrete shifts in monetary policy. We first derive the mean, variance and autocovariances of the forecast errors from a recursive least squares learning algorithm when there are breaks in the structure of the model. We then apply the Bai and Perron (1998) test for structural change to a forecasting model for the three month T-bill rate in order to identify changes in monetary policy. Having identified the policy regimes, we then estimate the implied biases in the interest rate forecasts within each regime. We find that when the forecast errors from the SPF are corrected for the biases due to shifts in policy, the forecasts are consistent with least squares learning. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

The microstructure and physicochemical properties of probiotic buffalo yoghurt during fermentation and storage: a comparison with bovine yoghurt

The physicochemical and rheological properties of yoghurt made from unstandardised unhomogenised buffalo milk were investigated during fermentation and 28 days of storage and compared to the properties of yoghurt made from homogenised fortified bovine milk. A number of differences observed in the gel network can be linked to differences in milk composition. The microstructure of buffalo yoghurt, as assessed by confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) and cryo scanning electron microscopy (cryo-SEM), was interrupted by large fat globules and featured more serum pores. These fat globules have a lower surface area and bind less protein than the homogenised fat globules in bovine milk. These microstructural differences likely lead to the higher syneresis observed for buffalo yoghurt with an increase from 17.4 % (w/w) to 19.7 % (w/w) in the weight of whey generated at days 1 and 28 of the storage. The higher concentration of total calcium in buffalo milk resulted in the release of more ionic calcium during fermentation. Gelation was also slower but the strength of the two gels was similar due to similar protein and total solids concentrations. Buffalo yoghurt was more viscous, less able to recover from deformation and less Newtonian than bovine yoghurt with a thixotropy of 3,035 Pa.s-1 measured for buffalo yoghurt at the end of the storage, at least four times higher than the thixotropy of bovine yoghurt. While the titratable acidity, lactose consumption and changes in organic acid concentrations were similar, differences were recorded in the viability of probiotic bacteria with a lower viability of Lactobacillus acidophilus of 5.17 log (CFU/g) recorded for buffalo yoghurt at day 28 of the storage. Our results show that factors other than the total solids content and protein concentration of milk affect the structural properties of yoghurt. They also illustrate the physicochemical reasons why buffalo and bovine yoghurt are reported to have different sensory properties and provide insight into how compositional changes can be used to alter the microstructure and properties of dairy products. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Corrigendum to “Least squares learning and the US treasury bill rate” [Econ. Syst. 38 (2014) 194–204]

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant empirical evidence in support of this assumption. Thus, in this paper we test if the forecast of the three month T-bill rate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is consistent with least squares learning when there are discrete shifts in monetary policy. We first derive the mean, variance and autocovariances of the forecast errors from a recursive least squares learning algorithm when there are breaks in the structure of the model. We then apply the Bai and Perron (1998) test for structural change to a forecasting model for the three month T-bill rate in order to identify changes in monetary policy. Having identified the policy regimes, we then estimate the implied biases in the interest rate forecasts within each regime. We find that when the forecast errors from the SPF are corrected for the biases due to shifts in policy, the forecasts are consistent with least squares learning.

Climate-related spatial and temporal variation in bill morphology over the past century in Australian parrots

Aim: Allen's rule posits that the appendages of endothermic organisms will be larger in warmer climates to allow for dumping of heat loads. Given a link between appendage size and climate, we tested the prediction that climate change has driven the evolution of larger bills in birds, resulting in measurable changes over the recent past. Location: Australia. Methods: We explored geographical and temporal variation in bill surface area of five Australian parrot species to determine whether individuals from warmer climates have larger bills, and whether there have been increases in bill surface area over time, consistent with climatic warming. Measurements were obtained from museum specimens dating from 1871 to 2008. These data were then related to geographical location, collection date and locality-specific climate data, in order to construct and compare models of spatio-temporal and climate-related variation in bill morphology. Results: There have been increases in bill surface area in mulga parrots (Psephotus varius), gang-gang cockatoos (Callocephalon fimbriatum), red-rumped parrots (Psephotus haematonotus) and male crimson rosellas (Platycercus elegans), equating to a c. 4-10% increase in bill surface area since 1871. Average maximum summer temperature in the 5 years prior to specimen collection also positively predicted bill surface area in mulga parrots, red-rumped parrots and crimson rosellas, consistent with Allen's rule. With the exception of red-rumped parrots, however, models with geographical location and year of collection were still better predictors of bill surface area than local climate at the date of collection. Main conclusions: Our analysis provides evidence that four species of parrot have exhibited adaptive change in bills over the past century potentially mitigating the thermal stress caused by climatic warming. Although consistent with the predicted effects of climate change, the temporal patterns we observe may have additional causes, however, such as changes in primary productivity, habitat or food availability.

Finding a Life on the Edge: Two decades after mountaineer Bill Holland was lost in a fall, his daughter revisits his days on Mayflower Hill

Two decades after mountaineer Bill Holland ’72 was lost in a fall, his daughter retraces his steps on Mayflower Hill.