Building belief in organizational learning: the role of organizational learning efficacy

There appears to be a missing dimension in OL literature to embrace the collective experience of emotion, both within groups and communities and also across the organization as a whole. The concept of OL efficacy- as a stimulus offering energy and direction for learning - remains unexplored. This research involved engaging with a company we have called ‘Electroco’ in depth to create a rich and nuanced representation of OL and members’ perceptions of OL over an extended time-frame (five years). We drew upon grounded theory research methodology (Locke, 2001), to elicit feedback from the organization, which was then used to inform future research plans and/ or refine emerging ideas. The concept of OL efficacy gradually emerged as a factor to be considered when exploring the relationship between individual learning and OL. . Bearing in mind Bandura’s (1982) conceptualization of self-efficacy (linked with mastery, modelling, verbal persuasion and emotional arousal), we developed a coding strategy encompassing these four factors as conceptualized at the organizational level. We added a fifth factor: ‘control of OL.’ We focused on feelings across the organization and the extent of consensus or otherwise around these five attributes. The construct has potential significance for how people are managed in many ways. Not only is OL efficacy is difficult for competitors to copy (arising as it does from the collective experience of working within a specific context); the self-efficacy concept suggests that success can be engineered with ‘small wins’ to reinforce mastery perceptions. Leaders can signal the importance of interaction with the external context, and encourage reflection on the strategies adopted by competitors or benchmark organizations (modelling). The theory also underlines the key role managers may play in persuading others about their organization’s propensity to learn (by focusing on success stories, for example). Research is set to continue within other sectors, including the high-performance financial service sector as well as the health-care technology sector.

Decentralized supply chain formation using max-sum loopy belief propagation

Supply chain formation is the process by which a set of producers within a network determine the subset of these producers able to form a chain to supply goods to one or more consumers at the lowest cost. This problem has been tackled in a number of ways, including auctions, negotiations, and argumentation-based approaches. In this paper we show how this problem can be cast as an optimization of a pairwise cost function. Optimizing this class of energy functions is NP-hard but efficient approximations to the global minimum can be obtained using loopy belief propagation (LBP). Here we detail a max-sum LBP-based approach to the supply chain formation problem, involving decentralized message-passing between supply chain participants. Our approach is evaluated against a well-known decentralized double-auction method and an optimal centralized technique, showing several improvements on the auction method: it obtains better solutions for most network instances which allow for competitive equilibrium (Competitive equilibrium in Walsh and Wellman is a set of producer costs which permits a Pareto optimal state in which agents in the allocation receive non-negative surplus and agents not in the allocation would acquire non-positive surplus by participating in the supply chain) while also optimally solving problems where no competitive equilibrium exists, for which the double-auction method frequently produces inefficient solutions. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Belief nets for mental health

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Belief propagation on dense graphs with few strong links

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Traffic lights management using belief propagation

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Contract law concentrate:law revision and study guide

Contract Law Concentrate is a high quality revision guide which covers the main topics found on undergraduate courses. The clear, succinct coverage of key legal points within a specific topic area, including key cases, enables students to quickly grasp the fundamental principles of Contract law. Written by Jill Poole, an experienced teacher and examiner and author of Textbook on Contract Law and Casebook on Contract law. The book focuses on the needs of students to pass their exams with a number of pedagogical features which help with the preparation for exams and suggest ways to improve marks. Endorsed by students and lecturers for level of coverage, accuracy and exam advice. Online Resource Centre Interactive flashcards Glossary Exam and revision guidance.

Disowned recollections:denying true experiences undermines belief in occurrence but not judgments of remembering

Recent research findings have illustrated that false memories induced in the laboratory can be dissociated from the beliefs that the events had in fact occurred. In this study we assessed whether this dissociability is a quality peculiar to false memory, or whether it represents a general characteristic of autobiographical memory. To this end we examined whether people can be induced to stop believing in memories for true experiences. Participants observed and performed simple actions, and were later falsely informed that they had not performed some of them-that false memories for these actions had been implanted through the use of fabricated evidence. Before and after receiving this misinformation, participants rated their belief in and memory of performing those actions, other actions that they had also performed, and actions that they had not performed. Whereas the misinformation substantially undermined participants' beliefs in the specific performed actions about which they had been misinformed, it had little effect on their endorsement of remembering those actions. The misinformation thus boosted the proportion of occasions in which participants rated their memories as stronger than their beliefs, and it weakened the correlation between belief and memory ratings. Thus, this study provides the first experimental demonstration of non-believed memories of true experiences. We discuss our findings with reference to the small literature concerning the use of socially-communicated misinformation to undermine event memories, and with reference to the structure of autobiographical memory. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Resting state morphology predicts the effect of theta burst stimulation in false belief reasoning:ventrolateral prefrontal cortex in false belief reasoning

When required to represent a perspective that conflicts with one's own, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) suggests that the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (rvlPFC) supports the inhibition of that conflicting self-perspective. The present task dissociated inhibition of self-perspective from other executive control processes by contrasting belief reasoning-a cognitive state where the presence of conflicting perspectives was manipulated-with a conative desire state wherein no systematic conflict existed. Linear modeling was used to examine the effect of continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) to rvlPFC on participants' reaction times in belief and desire reasoning. It was anticipated that cTBS applied to rvlPFC would affect belief but not desire reasoning, by modulating activity in the Ventral Attention System (VAS). We further anticipated that this effect would be mediated by functional connectivity within this network, which was identified using resting state fMRI and an unbiased model-free approach. Simple reaction-time analysis failed to detect an effect of cTBS. However, by additionally modeling individual measures from within the stimulated network, the hypothesized effect of cTBS to belief (but, importantly, not desire) reasoning was demonstrated. Structural morphology within the stimulated region, rvlPFC, and right temporoparietal junction were demonstrated to underlie this effect. These data provide evidence that inconsistencies found with cTBS can be mediated by the composition of the functional network that is being stimulated. We suggest that the common claim that this network constitutes the VAS explains the effect of cTBS to this network on false belief reasoning. Hum Brain Mapp, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multiple roles for executive control in belief-desire reasoning:distinct neural networks are recruited for self perspective inhibition and complexity of reasoning

Belief-desire reasoning is a core component of 'Theory of Mind' (ToM), which can be used to explain and predict the behaviour of agents. Neuroimaging studies reliably identify a network of brain regions comprising a 'standard' network for ToM, including temporoparietal junction and medial prefrontal cortex. Whilst considerable experimental evidence suggests that executive control (EC) may support a functioning ToM, co-ordination of neural systems for ToM and EC is poorly understood. We report here use of a novel task in which psychologically relevant ToM parameters (true versus false belief; approach versus avoidance desire) were manipulated orthogonally. The valence of these parameters not only modulated brain activity in the 'standard' ToM network but also in EC regions. Varying the valence of both beliefs and desires recruits anterior cingulate cortex, suggesting a shared inhibitory component associated with negatively valenced mental state concepts. Varying the valence of beliefs additionally draws on ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, reflecting the need to inhibit self perspective. These data provide the first evidence that separate functional and neural systems for EC may be recruited in the service of different aspects of ToM.

Serum procalcitonin, interleukin-6, soluble intercellular adhesin molecule-1 and IgG to short-chain exocellular lipoteichoic acid as predictors of infection in total joint prosthesis revision

The diagnosis of prosthetic joint infection and its differentiation from aseptic loosening remains problematic. The definitive laboratory diagnostic test is the recovery of identical infectious agents from multiple intraoperative tissue samples; however, interpretation of positive cultures is often complex as infection is frequently associated with low numbers of commensal microorganisms, in particular the coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS). In this investigation, the value of serum procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) as predictors of infection in revision hip replacement surgery is assessed. Furthermore, the diagnostic value of serum IgG to short-chain exocellular lipoteichoic acid (sce-LTA) is assessed in patients with infection due to CNS. Presurgical levels of conventional serum markers of infection including C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and white blood cell count (WBC) is also established. Forty-six patients undergoing revision hip surgery were recruited with a presumptive clinical diagnosis of either septic (16 patients) or aseptic loosening (30 patients). The diagnosis was confirmed microbiologically and levels of serum markers were determined. Serum levels of IL-6 and sICAM-1 were significantly raised in patients with septic loosening (P=0.001 and P=0.0002, respectively). Serum IgG to sce-LTA was elevated in three out of four patients with infection due to CNS. In contrast, PCT was not found to be of value in differentiating septic and aseptic loosening. Furthermore, CRP, ESR and WBC were significantly higher (P=0.0001, P=0.0001 and P=0.003, respectively) in patients with septic loosening. Serum levels of IL-6, sICAM-1 and IgG to sce-LTA may provide additional information to facilitate the diagnosis of prosthetic joint infection.

On the completeness of the universal knowledge-belief space

Meier (2008) shows that the universal knowledge-belief space exists. However, besides the universality there is an other important property might be imposed on knowledge-belief spaces, inherited also from type spaces, the completeness. In this paper we introduce the notion of complete knowledge-belief space, and demonstrate that the universal knowledge-belief space is not complete, that is, some subjective beliefs (probability measures) on the universal knowledge-belief space are not knowledge-belief types.

A bizonyosságfüggvények elméletének alkalmazása a pénzügyi kimutatások ellenőrzésében (The application of the theory of belief functions in the audit of financial statements)

A könyvvizsgálati kockázat a téves auditjelentés kiadásának kockázata olyan esetekben, amikor a beszámoló lényeges hibás állítást tartalmaz. Ez a kockázat indirekt módon a hitelintézetek és pénzügyi vállalkozások működésében is megjelenik azokban az esetekben, amikor a lényeges hibás állítást a finanszírozott vállalkozás auditált beszámolója tartalmazza, amelynek az alapján finanszírozási döntést hoznak, vagy a finanszírozás folytatásáról a beszámolóban szereplő, hibás információkból számított hitelkovenánsok alapján döntenek. A könyvvizsgálat kockázatában a vizsgált gazdálkodó üzleti kockázatai tükröződnek vissza, ezért a kockázat felmérése és az ellenőrzés ennek alapján való megtervezése, majd végrehajtása kulcsfontosságú. Jelen tanulmány – kapcsolódva a Hitelintézeti Szemle 2011. évi 4. számához – szintén a kockázat és bizonytalanság témakörét tárgyalja, pontosabban ennek egy gyakorlati vetületét: a bizonyosságfüggvények (belief functions) alkalmazását a könyvvizsgálatban; mindezt a teljesség és a tankönyvszerű rendszerfelépítés igénye nélkül. A módszer ugyanis hazánkban szinte ismeretlen, nemzetközi viszonylatban viszont empirikus kutatásban is rámutattak már az alkalmazás lehetséges előnyeire a hagyományos valószínűségelméleten alapuló számszerű kockázatbecslésekkel szemben. Eszerint a bizonyosságfüggvények jobban reprezentálják a könyvvizsgálóknak a kockázatról alkotott képét, mint a valószínűségek, mert – szemben a hagyományos modellel – nem két, hanem három állapotot kezelnek: a pozitív bizonyíték létezését, a negatív bizonyíték létezését és a bizonyíték hiányának esetét. _______ Audit risk is the risk that the auditor expresses an inappropriate audit opinion when the fi nancial statements are materially misstated. This kind of risk indirectly appears in the fi nancial statements of fi nancial institutions, when the material misstatement is in the fi nanced entity’s statements that serve as a basis for lending decisions or when the decision is made based upon credit covenants calculated from misstated information. The risks of the audit process refl ect the business risks of the auditee, so the assessment of risks, and further the planning and performance of the audit based on it is of key importance. The current study – connecting to No 4 2011 of Hitelintézeti Szemle – also discusses the topic of risk and uncertainty, or to be more precise a practical implementation of the aforementioned: the application of belief functions in the fi eld of external audit. All this without the aim of achieving completeness or textbook-like scrutiny in building up the theory. While the formalism is virtually unknown in Hungary, on the international scene empirical studies pointed out the possible advantages of the application of the method in contrast to risk assessments based on the traditional theory of probability. Accordingly, belief functions provide a better representation of auditors’ perception of risk, as in contrast to the traditional model, belief functions deal with three rather than two states: the existence of supportive evidence, that of negative evidence and the lack of evidence.

On the completeness of the universal knowledge-belief space: A technical note

Meier (2008) shows that the universal knowledge-belief space exists. However, besides the universality there is an other important property might be imposed on knowledge- belief spaces, inherited also from type spaces, the completeness. In this paper we introduce the notion of complete knowledge-belief space, and demonstrate that the universal knowledge-belief space is not complete, that is, some subjective beliefs (probability measures) on the universal knowledge-belief space are not knowledge-belief types.

Ensemble fuzzy belief intrusion detection design

With the rapid growth of the Internet, computer attacks are increasing at a fast pace and can easily cause millions of dollar in damage to an organization. Detecting these attacks is an important issue of computer security. There are many types of attacks and they fall into four main categories, Denial of Service (DoS) attacks, Probe, User to Root (U2R) attacks, and Remote to Local (R2L) attacks. Within these categories, DoS and Probe attacks continuously show up with greater frequency in a short period of time when they attack systems. They are different from the normal traffic data and can be easily separated from normal activities. On the contrary, U2R and R2L attacks are embedded in the data portions of the packets and normally involve only a single connection. It becomes difficult to achieve satisfactory detection accuracy for detecting these two attacks. Therefore, we focus on studying the ambiguity problem between normal activities and U2R/R2L attacks. The goal is to build a detection system that can accurately and quickly detect these two attacks. In this dissertation, we design a two-phase intrusion detection approach. In the first phase, a correlation-based feature selection algorithm is proposed to advance the speed of detection. Features with poor prediction ability for the signatures of attacks and features inter-correlated with one or more other features are considered redundant. Such features are removed and only indispensable information about the original feature space remains. In the second phase, we develop an ensemble intrusion detection system to achieve accurate detection performance. The proposed method includes multiple feature selecting intrusion detectors and a data mining intrusion detector. The former ones consist of a set of detectors, and each of them uses a fuzzy clustering technique and belief theory to solve the ambiguity problem. The latter one applies data mining technique to automatically extract computer users’ normal behavior from training network traffic data. The final decision is a combination of the outputs of feature selecting and data mining detectors. The experimental results indicate that our ensemble approach not only significantly reduces the detection time but also effectively detect U2R and R2L attacks that contain degrees of ambiguous information.

Mangrove production and carbon sinks: A revision of global budget estimates

Mangrove forests are highly productive but globally threatened coastal ecosystems, whose role in the carbon budget of the coastal zone has long been debated. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis of the available data on carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems. A reassessment of global mangrove primary production from the literature results in a conservative estimate of ∼218 ± 72 Tg C a−1. When using the best available estimates of various carbon sinks (organic carbon export, sediment burial, and mineralization), it appears that >50% of the carbon fixed by mangrove vegetation is unaccounted for. This unaccounted carbon sink is conservatively estimated at ∼112 ± 85 Tg C a−1, equivalent in magnitude to ∼30–40% of the global riverine organic carbon input to the coastal zone. Our analysis suggests that mineralization is severely underestimated, and that the majority of carbon export from mangroves to adjacent waters occurs as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). CO2 efflux from sediments and creek waters and tidal export of DIC appear to be the major sinks. These processes are quantitatively comparable in magnitude to the unaccounted carbon sink in current budgets, but are not yet adequately constrained with the limited published data available so far.