Early warning systems for cyber defence

Cybercriminals ramp up their efforts with sophisticated techniques while defenders gradually update their typical security measures. Attackers often have a long-term interest in their targets. Due to a number of factors such as scale, architecture and nonproductive traffic however it makes difficult to detect them using typical intrusion detection techniques. Cyber early warning systems (CEWS) aim at alerting such attempts in their nascent stages using preliminary indicators. Design and implementation of such systems involves numerous research challenges such as generic set of indicators, intelligence gathering, uncertainty reasoning and information fusion. This paper discusses such challenges and presents the reader with compelling motivation. A carefully deployed empirical analysis using a real world attack scenario and a real network traffic capture is also presented.

Ethical reasoning through simulation: a phenomenological analysis of student experience

Background
Medical students transitioning into professional practice feel underprepared to deal with the emotional complexities of real-life ethical situations. Simulation-based learning (SBL) may provide a safe environment for students to probe the boundaries of ethical encounters. Published studies of ethics simulation have not generated sufficiently deep accounts of student experience to inform pedagogy. The aim of this study was to understand students’ lived experiences as they engaged with the emotional challenges of managing clinical ethical dilemmas within a SBL environment.

Methods
This qualitative study was underpinned by an interpretivist epistemology. Eight senior medical students participated in an interprofessional ward-based SBL activity incorporating a series of ethically challenging encounters. Each student wore digital video glasses to capture point-of-view (PoV) film footage. Students were interviewed immediately after the simulation and the PoV footage played back to them. Interviews were transcribed verbatim. An interpretative phenomenological approach, using an established template analysis approach, was used to iteratively analyse the data.

Results
Four main themes emerged from the analysis: (1) ‘Authentic on all levels?’, (2)‘Letting the emotions flow’, (3) ‘Ethical alarm bells’ and (4) ‘Voices of children and ghosts’. Students recognised many explicit ethical dilemmas during the SBL activity but had difficulty navigating more subtle ethical and professional boundaries. In emotionally complex situations, instances of moral compromise were observed (such as telling an untruth). Some participants felt unable to raise concerns or challenge unethical behaviour within the scenarios due to prior negative undergraduate experiences.

Conclusions
This study provided deep insights into medical students’ immersive and embodied experiences of ethical reasoning during an authentic SBL activity. By layering on the human dimensions of ethical decision-making, students can understand their personal responses to emotion, complexity and interprofessional working. This could assist them in framing and observing appropriate ethical and professional boundaries and help smooth the transition into clinical practice.

Bayesian Dependence Tests for Continuous, Binary and Mixed Continuous-Binary Variables

Tests for dependence of continuous, discrete and mixed continuous-discrete variables are ubiquitous in science. The goal of this paper is to derive Bayesian alternatives to frequentist null hypothesis significance tests for dependence. In particular, we will present three Bayesian tests for dependence of binary, continuous and mixed variables. These tests are nonparametric and based on the Dirichlet Process, which allows us to use the same prior model for all of them. Therefore, the tests are “consistent” among each other, in the sense that the probabilities that variables are dependent computed with these tests are commensurable across the different types of variables being tested. By means of simulations with artificial data, we show the effectiveness of the new tests.

Learning Treewidth-Bounded Bayesian Networks with Thousands of Variables

We present a method for learning treewidth-bounded Bayesian networks from data sets containing thousands of variables. Bounding the treewidth of a Bayesian network greatly reduces the complexity of inferences. Yet, being a global property of the graph, it considerably increases the difficulty of the learning process. Our novel algorithm accomplishes this task, scaling both to large domains and to large treewidths. Our novel approach consistently outperforms the state of the art on experiments with up to thousands of variables.

Hierarchical Task Network Planning with Common-Sense Reasoning for Multiple-People Behaviour Analysis

Safety on public transport is a major concern for the relevant authorities. We
address this issue by proposing an automated surveillance platform which combines data from video, infrared and pressure sensors. Data homogenisation and integration is achieved by a distributed architecture based on communication middleware that resolves interconnection issues, thereby enabling data modelling. A common-sense knowledge base models and encodes knowledge about public-transport platforms and the actions and activities of passengers. Trajectory data from passengers is modelled as a time-series of human activities. Common-sense knowledge and rules are then applied to detect inconsistencies or errors in the data interpretation. Lastly, the rationality that characterises human behaviour is also captured here through a bottom-up Hierarchical Task Network planner that, along with common-sense, corrects misinterpretations to explain passenger behaviour. The system is validated using a simulated bus saloon scenario as a case-study. Eighteen video sequences were recorded with up to six passengers. Four metrics were used to evaluate performance. The system, with an accuracy greater than 90% for each of the four metrics, was found to outperform a rule-base system and a system containing planning alone.

Proposing the deep dynamic Bayesian network as a future computer based medical system

The development of new learning models has been of great importance throughout recent years, with a focus on creating advances in the area of deep learning. Deep learning was first noted in 2006, and has since become a major area of research in a number of disciplines. This paper will delve into the area of deep learning to present its current limitations and provide a new idea for a fully integrated deep and dynamic probabilistic system. The new model will be applicable to a vast number of areas initially focusing on applications into medical image analysis with an overall goal of utilising this approach for prediction purposes in computer based medical systems.