919 resultados para Bayesian Markov process


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Ocean processes are complex and have high variability in both time and space. Thus, ocean scientists must collect data over long time periods to obtain a synoptic view of ocean processes and resolve their spatiotemporal variability. One way to perform these persistent observations is to utilise an autonomous vehicle that can remain on deployment for long time periods. However, such vehicles are generally underactuated and slow moving. A challenge for persistent monitoring with these vehicles is dealing with currents while executing a prescribed path or mission. Here we present a path planning method for persistent monitoring that exploits ocean currents to increase navigational accuracy and reduce energy consumption.

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In this conceptual article, we extend earlier work on Open Innovation and Absorptive Capacity. We suggest that the literature on Absorptive Capacity does not place sufficient emphasis on distributed knowledge and learning or on the application of innovative knowledge. To accomplish physical transformations, organisations need specific Innovative Capacities that extend beyond knowledge management. Accessive Capacity is the ability to collect, sort and analyse knowledge from both internal and external sources. Adaptive Capacity is needed to ensure that new pieces of equipment are suitable for the organisation's own purposes even though they may have been originally developed for other uses. Integrative Capacity makes it possible for a new or modified piece of equipment to be fitted into an existing production process with a minimum of inessential and expensive adjustment elsewhere in the process. These Innovative Capacities are controlled and coordinated by Innovative Management Capacity, a higher-order dynamic capability.

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By integrating two theoretical approaches to entrepreneurship research, the psychology of the entrepreneur and the entrepreneurship process, this paper proposes a new conceptual model examining entrepreneur behaviour and emotion across the new venture development process. Existing macro level research on the new venture creation process recognises the entrepreneur as a central agent in the process yet generally avoids, at each stage of the process, an examination of the micro level psychological experiences of the individual entrepreneur. Similarly, behavioural research examining entrepreneur individual differences has neglected to systematically explore the emotion and behaviour of the entrepreneur across the cycle of the new venture creation process. We propose a conceptual framework that integrates the exploitation phase of the new venture creation process with the psychological capital element of optimism and behaviour of the individual entrepreneur. Propositions for future research to facilitate deeper insight into the impact of entrepreneur behaviour and emotion on the new venture creation process and ultimately the success or failure of the new venture are offered.

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Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

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This study proposes a full Bayes (FB) hierarchical modeling approach in traffic crash hotspot identification. The FB approach is able to account for all uncertainties associated with crash risk and various risk factors by estimating a posterior distribution of the site safety on which various ranking criteria could be based. Moreover, by use of hierarchical model specification, FB approach is able to flexibly take into account various heterogeneities of crash occurrence due to spatiotemporal effects on traffic safety. Using Singapore intersection crash data(1997-2006), an empirical evaluate was conducted to compare the proposed FB approach to the state-of-the-art approaches. Results show that the Bayesian hierarchical models with accommodation for site specific effect and serial correlation have better goodness-of-fit than non hierarchical models. Furthermore, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than the naive approach using raw crash count. The FB hierarchical models were found to significantly outperform the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hotspots.

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Most approaches to business process compliance are restricted to the analysis of the structure of processes. It has been argued that full regulatory compliance requires information on not only the structure of processes but also on what the tasks in a process do. To this end Governatori and Sadiq[2007] proposed to extend business processes with semantic annotations. We propose a methodology to automatically extract one kind of such annotations; in particular the annotations related to the data schema and templates linked to the various tasks in a business process.

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Complexity is a major concern which is aimed to be overcome by people through modeling. One way of reducing complexity is separation of concerns, e.g. separation of business process from applications. One sort of concerns are cross-cutting concerns i.e. concerns which are scattered and tangled through one of several models. In business process management, examples of such concerns are security and privacy policies. To deal with these cross-cutting concerns, the aspect orientated approach was introduced in the software development area and recently also in the business process management area. The work presented in this paper elaborates on aspect oriented process modelling. It extends earlier work by defining a mechanism for capturing multiple concerns and specifying a precedence order according to which they should be handled in a process. A formal syntax of the notation is presented precisely capturing the extended concepts and mechanisms. Finally, the relevant of the approach is demonstrated through a case study.

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This chapter describes a university/high school partnership focused on digital storytelling. It also explains the multi-stage process used to establish this successful partnership and project. The authors discuss the central role that technology played in developing this university/high school partnership, a collaboration that extended the impact of a digital storytelling project to reach high school students, university students, educators, high school administrators, and the local community. Valuing a reflective process that can lead to the creation of a powerful final product, the authors describe the impact of digital storytelling on multiple stakeholders, including the 13 university students and 33 culturally and linguistically diverse high school youth who participated during the fall of 2009. In addition, the chapter includes reflections from university and high school student participants expressed during focus groups conducted throughout the project. While most participants had a positive experience with the project, complications with the technology component often caused frustrations and additional challenges. Goals for sharing this project are to critically evaluate digital storytelling, describe lessons learned, and recommend good practices for others working within a similar context or with parallel goals.

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User needs are a fundamental element of design. If the design process does not properly reflect user needs, the design will be severely compromised. Therefore, it is worthwhile to investigate how the user is, and user needs are, understood in the design process. In this article, three accepted linear process models for web site and interactive media design are reviewed in terms of the designer and user participation. The article then proposes a user-evolving collaborative design process which is built on co-creation activities between designer and user. Co-creation activities across the entire design process structurally and ontologically reposition the users, and user needs, centrally, which allows the designers to holistically approach to the user needs through building a partnership with the users. Co-creation creates an equal evolving participatory process between user and designer towards sharing values and knowledge and creating new domains of collective creativity.

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This paper is a selected review of research on issues surrounding the investigation of intra-familial child sexual abuse for children aged eight and above, in the criminal justice system. Particular attention is paid to features of the investigative interview in relation to the child's level of understanding, ability to report and likely emotional response when the proceedings take place. Best practice by police and social care agencies involves establishing valid and reliable information from children while attending to their developmental level and emotional state. The review aims to distil principles optimising this process from both the investigative judicial perspective and the child's focus, as well as from the inter-agency perspective and information sharing. Recommendations are made for improving the interview process based on research and methods from a range of disciplines and to optimise information recording in a format easily shared between agencies. Updated and ongoing training procedures are key to successful practice with training shared across police and social work agencies. The focus of this review is informed by preliminary findings from pilot research in progress on behalf of the Metropolitan Police Child Abuse Investigation Command.