963 resultados para Bayes Formula


Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

A series of Cs- and C1-symmetric doubly-linked ansa-metallocenes of the general formula {1,1'-SiMe2-2,2'-E-('ƞ5-C5H2-4-R1)-(ƞ5-C5H-3',5'-(CHMe2)2)}ZrC2 (E = SiMe2 (1), SiPh2 (2), SiMe2 -SiMe2 (3); R1 = H, CHMe2, C5H9, C6H11, C6H5) has been prepared. When activated by methylaluminoxane, these are active propylene polymerization catalysts. 1 and 2 produce syndiotactic polypropylenes, and 3 produces isotactic polypropylenes. Site epimerization is the major pathway for stereoerror formation for 1 and 2. In addition, the polymer chain has slightly stronger steric interaction with the diphenylsilylene linker than with the dimethylsilylene linker. This results in more frequent site epimerization and reduced syndiospecificity for 2 compared to 1.

C1-Symmetric ansa-zirconocenes [1,1 '-SiMe2-(C5H4)-(3-R-C5H3)]ZrCl2 (4), [1,1 '-SiMe2-(C5H4)-(2,4-R2-C5H2)]ZrCl2 (5) and [1,1 '-SiMe2-2,2 '-(SiMe2-SiMe2)-(C5H3)-( 4-R-C5H2)]ZrCl2 (6) have been prepared to probe the origin of isospecificity in 3. While 4 and 3 produce polymers with similar isospecificity, 5 and 6 give mostly hemi-isotactic-like polymers. It is proposed that the facile site epimerization via an associative pathway allows rapid equilibration of the polymer chain between the isospecific and aspecific insertion sites. This results in more frequent insertion from the isospecific site, which has a lower kinetic barrier for chain propagation. On the other hand, site epimerization for 5 and 6 is slow. This leads to mostly alternating insertion from the isospecific and aspecific sites, and consequently, a hemi-isotactic-like polymers. In comparison, site epimerization is even slower for 3, but enchainment from the aspecific site has an extremely high kinetic barrier for monomer coordination. Therefore, enchainment occurs preferentially from the isospecific site to produce isotactic polymers.

A series of cationic complexes [(ArN=CR-CR=NAr)PtMe(L)]+[BF4]+ (Ar = aryl; R = H, CH3; L = water, trifluoroethanol) has been prepared. They react smoothly with benzene at approximately room temperature in trifluoroethanol solvent to yield methane and the corresponding phenyl Pt(II) cations, via Pt(IV)-methyl-phenyl-hydride intermediates. The reaction products of methyl-substituted benzenes suggest an inherent reactivity preference for aromatic over benzylic C-H bond activation, which can however be overridden by steric effects. For the reaction of benzene with cationic Pt(II) complexes, in which the diimine ligands bear 3,5-disubstituted aryl groups at the nitrogen atoms, the rate-determining step is C-H bond activation. For the more sterically crowded analogs with 2,6-dimethyl-substituted aryl groups, benzene coordination becomes rate-determining. The more electron-rich the ligand, as reflected by the CO stretching frequency in the IR spectrum of the corresponding cationic carbonyl complex, the faster the rate of C-H bond activation. This finding, however, does not reflect the actual C-H bond activation process, but rather reflects only the relative ease of solvent molecules displacing water molecules to initiate the reaction. That is, the change in rates is mostly due to a ground state effect. Several lines of evidence suggest that associative substitution pathways operate to get the hydrocarbon substrate into, and out of, the coordination sphere; i.e., that benzene substitution proceeds by a solvent- (TFE-) assisted associative pathway.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC2) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC2 criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC2 criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC2 to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In this study, by adopting the ion sphere model, the self-consistent. field method is used with the Poisson-Boltzmann equation and the Dirac equation to calculate the ground-state energies of H-like Ti at a plasma electron density from 10(22) cm(-3) to 10(24) cm(-3) and the electron temperature from 100 eV to 3600 eV. The ground-state energy shifts of H-like Ti show different trends with the electron density and the electron temperature. It is shown that the energy shifts increase with the increase in the electron density and decrease with the increase in the electron temperature. The energy shifts are sensitive to the electron density, but only sensitive to the low electron temperature. In addition, an accurately fitting formula is obtained to fast estimate the ground-state energies of H-like Ti. Such fitted formula can also be used to estimate the critical electron density of pressure ionization for the ground state of H-like Ti.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

There is a wonderful conjecture of Bloch and Kato that generalizes both the analytic Class Number Formula and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture. The conjecture itself was generalized by Fukaya and Kato to an equivariant formulation. In this thesis, I provide a new proof for the equivariant local Tamagawa number conjecture in the case of Tate motives for unramified fields, using Iwasawa theory and (φ,Γ)-modules, and provide some work towards extending the proof to tamely ramified fields.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Being able to detect a single molecule without the use of labels has been a long standing goal of bioengineers and physicists. This would simplify applications ranging from single molecular binding studies to those involving public health and security, improved drug screening, medical diagnostics, and genome sequencing. One promising technique that has the potential to detect single molecules is the microtoroid optical resonator. The main obstacle to detecting single molecules, however, is decreasing the noise level of the measurements such that a single molecule can be distinguished from background. We have used laser frequency locking in combination with balanced detection and data processing techniques to reduce the noise level of these devices and report the detection of a wide range of nanoscale objects ranging from nanoparticles with radii from 100 to 2.5 nm, to exosomes, ribosomes, and single protein molecules (mouse immunoglobulin G and human interleukin-2). We further extend the exosome results towards creating a non-invasive tumor biopsy assay. Our results, covering several orders of magnitude of particle radius (100 nm to 2 nm), agree with the `reactive' model prediction for the frequency shift of the resonator upon particle binding. In addition, we demonstrate that molecular weight may be estimated from the frequency shift through a simple formula, thus providing a basis for an ``optical mass spectrometer'' in solution. We anticipate that our results will enable many applications, including more sensitive medical diagnostics and fundamental studies of single receptor-ligand and protein-protein interactions in real time. The thesis summarizes what we have achieved thus far and shows that the goal of detecting a single molecule without the use of labels can now be realized.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The electrical and magnetic properties of amorphous alloys obtained by rapid quenching from the liquid state have been studied. The composition of these alloys corresponds to the general formula MxPd80-xSi20, in which M stands for a metal of the first transition series between chromium and nickel and x is its atomic concentration. The concentration ranges within which an amorphous structure could be obtained were: from 0 to 7 for Cr, Mn and Fe, from 0 to 11 for Co and from 0 to 15 for Ni. A well-defined minimum in the resistivity vs temperature curve was observed for all alloys except those containing nickel. The alloys for which a resistivity minimum was observed had a negative magnetoresistivity approximately proportional to the square of the magnetization and their susceptibility obeyed the Curie-Weiss law in a wide temperature range. For concentrated Fe and Co alloys the resistivity minimum was found to coexist with ferromagnetism. These observations lead to the conclusion that the present results are due to a s-d exchange interaction. The unusually high resistivity minimum temperature observed in the Cr alloys is interpreted as a result of a high Kondo temperature and a large s-d exchange integral. A low Fermi energy of the amorphous alloys (3.5 eV) is also responsible for the anomalies due to the s-d exchange interaction.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The superconducting properties and the microstructure of the Ag100-xPbx alloys, 1 ≤ x ≤ 5, prepared by rapid quenching from the liquid state with and without subsequent heat treatments, have been studied. The x-ray diffraction measurements show that supersaturated solid solutions of Pb in Ag can be obtained up to 3.2 at.% Pb as compared to less than 0.1 at.% Pb at equilibrium. It was found that by suitable heat treatment it is possible to vary the size and distribution of the Pb precipitates in the Ag matrix and reproducible superconducting properties in the alloy can be observed. The superconducting transition temperature of these samples can be qualitatively explained by the Silvert and Singh's theoretical calculation. The theory developed for the case of layer structure can be extended to three dimensions to explain the critical current versus temperature behavior. The critical current versus field behavior of these alloys can be explained by the modification of the Josephson effect. Combining these results together with the critical magnetic field measurements and the microstructure studies of the alloys, it can be concluded that the three-dimensional proximity effect is the main mechanism for the superconductivity in the Ag-Pb alloys. Based on the Hilsch empirical formula which was based on experimental results obtained on layer structures, the experimental data in this investigation show that the electron-phonon-electron interaction in silver is attractive. The interaction parameter NV obtained is approximately 0.06, which would lead to a value of 10-5 °K for the superconducting transition temperature of Ag. These values are in agreement with other determinations which were done on vapor-deposited metallic film sandwiches. Hence, the Hilsch empirical relation valid for layer structures is also valid in the three-dimensional case. Because the transition temperature and the critical current can be varied in a wide range by controlling the heat treatments, the Ag-Pb superconductors might have some useful applications.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

[ES]En este trabajo se hace un análisis y una comparación de las diferentes formas estructurales que puede adoptar una marquesina de aparcamiento, principalmente estructuras hechas en madera y acero. Para la realización del citado análisis se han valorado las ventajas y desventajas de los materiales, funcionalidad, mantenimiento, estética, dificultad de ejecución y economicidad, realizándose asimismo un diseño de marquesina utilizando uno u otro de los materiales citados. Para la ejecución de la marquesina, se formula un diseño que cumplimente los condicionantes de funcionalidad del elemento. A su vez, se analiza, parte por parte, todo el sistema estructural, empezando por determinar las acciones que van a aparecer y deberán ser transmitidas al terreno. Una vez obtenidos los esfuerzos que se han de transmitir, se formula una hipótesis de calidad del terreno de cimentación, con el fin de determinar las características de la cimentación. Previamente se realiza un predimensionado del sistema estructural, para cuyo cálculo se ha utilizado el programa informático Tricalc. Obtenidas las dimensiones exactas y los detalles constructivos para cada una de las opciones de materiales a analizar (madera y acero), se evalúa económicamente cada diseño obtenido, para determinar la solución más económica y rentable desde el punto de vista, por ejemplo del montaje y desmontaje, así como por el mantenimiento. Además de las funciones estructurales, también se analiza la adaptación al entorno de la madera y el acero.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We study the behaviour of atoms in a field with both static magnetic field and radio frequency (rf) magnetic field. We calculate the adiabatic potential of atoms numerically beyond the usually rotating wave approximation, and it is pointed that there is a great difference between using these two methods. We find the preconditions when RWA is valid. In the extreme of static field almost parallel to rf field, we reach an analytic formula. Finally, we apply this method to Rb-87 and propose a guide based on an rf field on atom chip.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Melting temperature calculation has important applications in the theoretical study of phase diagrams and computational materials screenings. In this thesis, we present two new methods, i.e., the improved Widom's particle insertion method and the small-cell coexistence method, which we developed in order to capture melting temperatures both accurately and quickly.

We propose a scheme that drastically improves the efficiency of Widom's particle insertion method by efficiently sampling cavities while calculating the integrals providing the chemical potentials of a physical system. This idea enables us to calculate chemical potentials of liquids directly from first-principles without the help of any reference system, which is necessary in the commonly used thermodynamic integration method. As an example, we apply our scheme, combined with the density functional formalism, to the calculation of the chemical potential of liquid copper. The calculated chemical potential is further used to locate the melting temperature. The calculated results closely agree with experiments.

We propose the small-cell coexistence method based on the statistical analysis of small-size coexistence MD simulations. It eliminates the risk of a metastable superheated solid in the fast-heating method, while also significantly reducing the computer cost relative to the traditional large-scale coexistence method. Using empirical potentials, we validate the method and systematically study the finite-size effect on the calculated melting points. The method converges to the exact result in the limit of a large system size. An accuracy within 100 K in melting temperature is usually achieved when the simulation contains more than 100 atoms. DFT examples of Tantalum, high-pressure Sodium, and ionic material NaCl are shown to demonstrate the accuracy and flexibility of the method in its practical applications. The method serves as a promising approach for large-scale automated material screening in which the melting temperature is a design criterion.

We present in detail two examples of refractory materials. First, we demonstrate how key material properties that provide guidance in the design of refractory materials can be accurately determined via ab initio thermodynamic calculations in conjunction with experimental techniques based on synchrotron X-ray diffraction and thermal analysis under laser-heated aerodynamic levitation. The properties considered include melting point, heat of fusion, heat capacity, thermal expansion coefficients, thermal stability, and sublattice disordering, as illustrated in a motivating example of lanthanum zirconate (La2Zr2O7). The close agreement with experiment in the known but structurally complex compound La2Zr2O7 provides good indication that the computation methods described can be used within a computational screening framework to identify novel refractory materials. Second, we report an extensive investigation into the melting temperatures of the Hf-C and Hf-Ta-C systems using ab initio calculations. With melting points above 4000 K, hafnium carbide (HfC) and tantalum carbide (TaC) are among the most refractory binary compounds known to date. Their mixture, with a general formula TaxHf1-xCy, is known to have a melting point of 4215 K at the composition Ta4HfC5, which has long been considered as the highest melting temperature for any solid. Very few measurements of melting point in tantalum and hafnium carbides have been documented, because of the obvious experimental difficulties at extreme temperatures. The investigation lets us identify three major chemical factors that contribute to the high melting temperatures. Based on these three factors, we propose and explore a new class of materials, which, according to our ab initio calculations, may possess even higher melting temperatures than Ta-Hf-C. This example also demonstrates the feasibility of materials screening and discovery via ab initio calculations for the optimization of "higher-level" properties whose determination requires extensive sampling of atomic configuration space.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Under the circumstance of a Gaussian control field, the cold atomic medium with electromagnetically induced transparency (EIT) turns out to be the special medium with the quadratic index distribution which is controllable online. In our study, the optical system occupies a portion of the EIT medium which acts as an imaging device. With the help of the Collins formula, the analytic expression for the spatial distribution of the probe field in the cold atomic medium is obtained as well as the location of the imaging. The methods for improving the visibility of the imaging are proposed in this paper. Moreover, we also show that the shapes of the images on the output are strongly influenced by the intensity of the control field, which provides a potential optical processing method.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

I. Trimesic acid (1, 3, 5-benzenetricarboxylic acid) crystallizes with a monoclinic unit cell of dimensions a = 26.52 A, b = 16.42 A, c = 26.55 A, and β = 91.53° with 48 molecules /unit cell. Extinctions indicated a space group of Cc or C2/c; a satisfactory structure was obtained in the latter with 6 molecules/asymmetric unit - C54O36H36 with a formula weight of 1261 g. Of approximately 12,000 independent reflections within the CuKα sphere, intensities of 11,563 were recorded visually from equi-inclination Weissenberg photographs.

The structure was solved by packing considerations aided by molecular transforms and two- and three-dimensional Patterson functions. Hydrogen positions were found on difference maps. A total of 978 parameters were refined by least squares; these included hydrogen parameters and anisotropic temperature factors for the C and O atoms. The final R factor was 0.0675; the final "goodness of fit" was 1.49. All calculations were carried out on the Caltech IBM 7040-7094 computer using the CRYRM Crystallographic Computing System.

The six independent molecules fall into two groups of three nearly parallel molecules. All molecules are connected by carboxylto- carboxyl hydrogen bond pairs to form a continuous array of sixmolecule rings with a chicken-wire appearance. These arrays bend to assume two orientations, forming pleated sheets. Arrays in different orientations interpenetrate - three molecules in one orientation passing through the holes of three parallel arrays in the alternate orientation - to produce a completely interlocking network. One third of the carboxyl hydrogen atoms were found to be disordered.

II. Optical transforms as related to x-ray diffraction patterns are discussed with reference to the theory of Fraunhofer diffraction.

The use of a systems approach in crystallographic computing is discussed with special emphasis on the way in which this has been done at the California Institute of Technology.

An efficient manner of calculating Fourier and Patterson maps on a digital computer is presented. Expressions for the calculation of to-scale maps for standard sections and for general-plane sections are developed; space-group-specific expressions in a form suitable for computers are given for all space groups except the hexagonal ones.

Expressions for the calculation of settings for an Eulerian-cradle diffractometer are developed for both the general triclinic case and the orthogonal case.

Photographic materials on pp. 4, 6, 10, and 20 are essential and will not reproduce clearly on Xerox copies. Photographic copies should be ordered.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Pulse-height and time-of-flight methods have been used to measure the electronic stopping cross sections for projectiles of 12C, 16O, 19F, 23Na, 24Mg, and 27Al, slowing in helium, neon, argon, krypton, and xenon. The ion energies were in the range 185 keV ≤ E ≤ 2560 keV.

A semiempirical calculation of the electronic stopping cross section for projectiles with atomic numbers between 6 and 13 passing through the inert gases has been performed using a modification of the Firsov model. Using Hartree-Slater-Fock orbitals, and summing over the losses for the individual charge states of the projectiles, good agreement has been obtained with the experimental data. The main features of the stopping cross section seen in the data, such as the Z1 oscillation and the variation of the velocity dependence on Z1 and Z2, are present in the calculation. The inclusion of a modified form of the Bethe-Bloch formula as an additional term allows the increase of the velocity dependence for projectile velocities above vo to be reproduced in the calculation.

Relevância:

10.00% 10.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

在星间半导体激光通信系统中,如何检测发射光束波面的质量是个较难处理的问题,为了较好地解决这一问题,在简单介绍白光横向双剪切干涉仪的基础上,报道了用此干涉仪对近衍射极限半导体激光光束波面的检测,在此基础上推导出计算远场发散度的公式。实验测得近场光束的波高差为0.2A,通过夫朗和费衍射求得光束的发散度仅为64.8μrad,这表明光束接近光学衍射极限。同时,表明双剪切干涉仪灵敏度高、实用性好。