Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Improving photovoltaics grid integration through short time forecasting and self-consumption

The uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation is a major drawback for the widespread introduction of this technology into electricity grids. This uncertainty is a challenge in the design and operation of electrical systems that include photovoltaic generation. Demand-Side Management (DSM) techniques are widely used to modify energy consumption. If local photovoltaic generation is available, DSM techniques can use generation forecast to schedule the local consumption. On the other hand, local storage systems can be used to separate electricity availability from instantaneous generation; therefore, the effects of forecast error in the electrical system are reduced. The effects of uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation in a residential electrical system equipped with DSM techniques and a local storage system are analyzed in this paper. The study has been performed in a solar house that is able to displace a residential user?s load pattern, manage local storage and estimate forecasts of electricity generation. A series of real experiments and simulations have carried out on the house. The results of this experiments show that the use of Demand Side Management (DSM) and local storage reduces to 2% the uncertainty on the energy exchanged with the grid. In the case that the photovoltaic system would operate as a pure electricity generator feeding all generated electricity into grid, the uncertainty would raise to around 40%.

Automatic expert system based on images for accuracy crop row detection in maize fields

This paper proposes an automatic expert system for accuracy crop row detection in maize fields based on images acquired from a vision system. Different applications in maize, particularly those based on site specific treatments, require the identification of the crop rows. The vision system is designed with a defined geometry and installed onboard a mobile agricultural vehicle, i.e. submitted to vibrations, gyros or uncontrolled movements. Crop rows can be estimated by applying geometrical parameters under image perspective projection. Because of the above undesired effects, most often, the estimation results inaccurate as compared to the real crop rows. The proposed expert system exploits the human knowledge which is mapped into two modules based on image processing techniques. The first one is intended for separating green plants (crops and weeds) from the rest (soil, stones and others). The second one is based on the system geometry where the expected crop lines are mapped onto the image and then a correction is applied through the well-tested and robust Theil–Sen estimator in order to adjust them to the real ones. Its performance is favorably compared against the classical Pearson product–moment correlation coefficient.

Automatic design of Ant Colony Optimization for permutation problems

In this study, we present a framework based on ant colony optimization (ACO) for tackling combinatorial problems. ACO algorithms have been applied to many diferent problems, focusing on algorithmic variants that obtain high-quality solutions. Usually, the implementations are re-done for various problem even if they maintain the same details of the ACO algorithm. However, our goal is to generate a sustainable framework for applications on permutation problems. We concentrate on understanding the behavior of pheromone trails and specific methods that can be combined. Eventually, we will propose an automatic offline configuration tool to build an efective algorithm. ---RESUMEN---En este trabajo vamos a presentar un framework basado en la familia de algoritmos ant colony optimization (ACO), los cuales están dise~nados para enfrentarse a problemas combinacionales. Los algoritmos ACO han sido aplicados a diversos problemas, centrándose los investigadores en diversas variantes que obtienen buenas soluciones. Normalmente, las implementaciones se tienen que rehacer, inclusos si se mantienen los mismos detalles para los algoritmos ACO. Sin embargo, nuestro objetivo es generar un framework sostenible para aplicaciones sobre problemas de permutaciones. Nos centraremos en comprender el comportamiento de la sendas de feromonas y ciertos métodos con los que pueden ser combinados. Finalmente, propondremos una herramienta para la configuraron automática offline para construir algoritmos eficientes.

A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation

The main objective of this paper is the development and application of multivariate time series models for forecasting aggregated wind power production in a country or region. Nowadays, in Spain, Denmark or Germany there is an increasing penetration of this kind of renewable energy, somehow to reduce energy dependence on the exterior, but always linked with the increaseand uncertainty affecting the prices of fossil fuels. The disposal of accurate predictions of wind power generation is a crucial task both for the System Operator as well as for all the agents of the Market. However, the vast majority of works rarely onsider forecasting horizons longer than 48 hours, although they are of interest for the system planning and operation. In this paper we use Dynamic Factor Analysis, adapting and modifying it conveniently, to reach our aim: the computation of accurate forecasts for the aggregated wind power production in a country for a forecasting horizon as long as possible, particularly up to 60 days (2 months). We illustrate this methodology and the results obtained for real data in the leading country in wind power production: Denmark