928 resultados para Applications in Economics and Epidemiology
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Despite recent reports of clonal strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in cystic fibrosis (CF) units, the need for routine microbiological surveillance remains contentious. Sputum was collected prospectively from productive patients attending the regional paediatric and adult CF units in Brisbane, Australia. All P. aeruginosa isolates were typed using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. Spirometry, anthropometrics, hospitalisations and antibiotic sensitivity data were recorded. The first 100 sputum samples (first 50 patients at each clinic) harboured 163 isolates of P. aeruginosa. A total of 39 patients shared a common strain (pulsotype 2), 20 patients shared a strain with at least one other patient and 41 patients harboured unique strains. Eight patients shared a strain identical to a previously reported Australian transmissible strain (pulsotype 1). Compared with the unique strain group, patients harbouring pulsotype 2 were younger and had poorer lung function. Treatment requirements were similar in these two groups, as were the rates of multiresistance. In conclusion, 59% of patients harboured a clonal strain, supporting the need for routine microbiological surveillance. In contrast to previously described clonal strains, the dominant pulsotype was indistinguishable from nonclonal strains with respect to both colonial morphology and multiresistance. The clinical significance of clonal strains remains uncertain and requires longitudinal study.
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Background: Recent case-control studies suggest that, given equal smoking exposure, women may have a higher relative risk of developing lung cancer than men. Despite prospective data that conflict with this hypothesis, mechanistic studies to find a biologic basis for a sex difference continue. Methods: We addressed the hypothesis directly by analyzing prospective data from former and current smokers in two large cohorts-the Nurses' Health Study of women and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study of men. We calculated incidence rates and hazard ratios of lung cancer in women compared with men, adjusting for age, number of cigarettes smoked per day, age at start of smoking, and time since quitting, using Cox proportional hazards models. We also reviewed published results from prospective analyses. Results: From 1986 through 2000, 955 and 311 primary lung cancers were identified among 60 296 women and 25 397 men, respectively, who ranged in age from 40 to 79 years. Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for women and men were 253 and 232, respectively, among current smokers and 81 and 73, respectively, among former smokers. The hazard ratio in women ever smokers compared with men was 1.11 (95% confidence interval = 0.95 to 1.31). Six published prospective cohort studies allowed assessment of comparative susceptibility to lung cancer by sex. None supported an excess risk of lung cancer for women. Conclusions: Women do not appear to have a greater susceptibility to lung cancer than men, given equal smoking exposure. Research should be focused on enhancing preventive interventions for all.
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Genetic algorithms (GAs) are known to locate the global optimal solution provided sufficient population and/or generation is used. Practically, a near-optimal satisfactory result can be found by Gas with a limited number of generations. In wireless communications, the exhaustive searching approach is widely applied to many techniques, such as maximum likelihood decoding (MLD) and distance spectrum (DS) techniques. The complexity of the exhaustive searching approach in the MLD or the DS technique is exponential in the number of transmit antennas and the size of the signal constellation for the multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems. If a large number of antennas and a large size of signal constellations, e.g. PSK and QAM, are employed in the MIMO systems, the exhaustive searching approach becomes impractical and time consuming. In this paper, the GAs are applied to the MLD and DS techniques to provide a near-optimal performance with a reduced computational complexity for the MIMO systems. Two different GA-based efficient searching approaches are proposed for the MLD and DS techniques, respectively. The first proposed approach is based on a GA with sharing function method, which is employed to locate the multiple solutions of the distance spectrum for the Space-time Trellis Coded Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (STTC-OFDM) systems. The second approach is the GA-based MLD that attempts to find the closest point to the transmitted signal. The proposed approach can return a satisfactory result with a good initial signal vector provided to the GA. Through simulation results, it is shown that the proposed GA-based efficient searching approaches can achieve near-optimal performance, but with a lower searching complexity comparing with the original MLD and DS techniques for the MIMO systems.
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Objective. To determine the population incidence and outcome of severe sepsis occurring in adult patients treated in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units (ICUs), and compare with recent retrospective estimates from the USA and UK. Design. Inception cohort study. Setting. Twenty-three closed multi-disciplinary ICUs of 21 hospitals (16 tertiary and 5 university affiliated) in Australia and New Zealand. Patients. A total of 5878 consecutive ICU admission episodes. Measurements and results. Main outcome measures were population-based incidence of severe sepsis, mortality at ICU discharge, mortality at 28 days after onset of severe sepsis, and mortality at hospital discharge. A total of 691 patients, 11.8 (95% confidence intervals 10.9-12.6) per 100 ICU admissions, were diagnosed with 752 episodes of severe sepsis. Site of infection was pulmonary in 50.3% of episodes and abdominal in 19.3% of episodes. The calculated incidence of severe sepsis in adults treated in Australian and New Zealand ICUs is 0.77 (0.76-0.79) per 1000 of population. 26.5% of patients with severe sepsis died in ICU, 32.4% died within 28 days of the diagnosis of severe sepsis and 37.5% died in hospital. Conclusion. In this prospective study, 11.8 patients per 100 ICU admissions were diagnosed with severe sepsis and the calculated annual incidence of severe sepsis in adult patients treated in Australian and New Zealand ICUs is 0.77 per 1000 of population. This figure for the population incidence falls in the lower range of recent estimates from retrospective studies in the U.S. and the U.K.
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Modern toxicology investigates a wide array of both old and new health hazards. Priority setting is needed to select agents for research from the plethora of exposure circumstances. The changing societies and a growing fraction of the aged have to be taken into consideration. A precise exposure assessment is of importance for risk estimation and regulation. Toxicology contributes to the exploration of pathomechanisms to specify the exposure metrics for risk estimation. Combined effects of co-existing agents are not yet sufficiently understood. Animal experiments allow a separate administration of agents which can not be disentangled by epidemiological means, but their value is limited for low exposure levels in many of today's settings. As an experimental science, toxicology has to keep pace with the rapidly growing knowledge about the language of the genome and the changing paradigms in cancer development. During the pioneer era of assembling a working draft of the human genome, toxicogenomics has been developed. Gene and pathway complexity have to be considered when investigating gene-environment interactions. For a best conduct of studies, modem toxicology needs a close liaison with many other disciplines like epidemiology and bioinformatics. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Health promotion activities consume a growing proportion of health sector spending in most developed countries. Yet, there is still considerable debate in the non-economic literature about exactly what health promotion constitutes and precisely how its role is to be conceived. This paper provides one economic answer to such questions. It sets out an argument that health promotion may be viewed, through the lens of traditional welfare economics, as a response to problems of market failure. A Grossman-type health investment model is invoked to analyse individual deviations from equilibrium and the possible instruments and targets of health promotion policy. The paper concludes by suggesting some of the alternative conceptual approaches that might be brought to bear, as well as some ideas for empirical research.
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Background: In clinical trials, at the group level, results are usually reported as mean and standard deviation of the change in score, which is not meaningful for most readers. Objective: To determine the minimal clinically important improvement (MCII) of pain, patient's global assessment of disease activity, and functional impairment in patients with knee and hip osteoarthritis (OA). Methods: A prospective multicentre 4 week cohort study involving 1362 outpatients with knee or hip OA was carried out. Data on assessment of pain and patient's global assessment, measured on visual analogue scales, and functional impairment, measured on the Western Ontario McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) function subscale, were collected at baseline and final visits. Patients assessed their response to treatment on a five point Likert scale at the final visit. An anchoring method based on the patient's opinion was used. The MCII was estimated in a subgroup of 814 patients ( 603 with knee OA, 211 with hip OA). Results: For knee and hip OA, MCII for absolute ( and relative) changes were, respectively, ( a) -19.9 mm (-40.8%) and -15.3 mm (-32.0%) for pain; ( b) -18.3 mm ( - 39.0%) and -15.2 mm ( -32.6%) for patient's global assessment; ( c) -9.1 ( -26.0%) and -7.9 ( -21.1%) for WOMAC function subscale score. The MCII is affected by the initial degree of severity of the symptoms but not by age, disease duration, or sex. Conclusion: Using criteria such as MCII in clinical trials would provide meaningful information which would help in interpreting the results by expressing them as a proportion of improved patients.
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Background: The patient acceptable symptom state ( PASS) is the value beyond which patients can consider themselves well. This concept can help in interpreting results of clinical trials. Objective: To determine the PASS estimate for patients with knee and hip osteoarthritis (OA) by assessing pain, patient's global assessment of disease activity, and functional impairment. Methods: A 4 week prospective multicentre cohort study of 1362 outpatients with knee or hip OA was carried out. Data on assessment of pain and patient's global assessment of disease, measured on visual analogue scales, and functional impairment, measured on the Western Ontario McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) function subscale, were collected at baseline and final visits. The patients assessed their satisfaction with their current state at the final visit. An anchoring method based on the patient's opinion was used. Results: For patients with knee and hip OA, the estimates of PASS were, respectively, 32.3 and 35.0 mm for pain, 32.0 and 34.6 mm for patient global assessment of disease activity, and 31.0 and 34.4 points for WOMAC function score. The PASS varied moderately across the tertiles of baseline scores but not across age, disease duration, or sex. Conclusion: The use of PASS in clinical trials would provide more meaningful results expressed as a proportion of patients in an acceptable symptom state.
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Based on clues from epidemiology, low prenatal vitamin D has been proposed as a candidate risk factor for schizophrenia. Recent animal experiments have demonstrated that transient prenatal vitamin D deficiency is associated with persistent alterations in brain morphology and neurotrophin expression. In order to explore the utility of the vitamin D animal model of schizophrenia, we examined different types of learning and memory in adult rats exposed to transient prenatal vitamin D deficiency. Compared to control animals, the prenatally deplete animals had a significant impairment of latent inhibition, a feature often associated with schizophrenia. In addition, the deplete group was (a) significantly impaired on hole board habituation and (b) significantly better at maintaining previously learnt rules of brightness discrimination in a Y-chamber. In contrast, the prenatally deplete animals showed no impairment on the spatial learning task in the radial maze, nor on two-way active avoidance learning in the shuttle-box. The results indicate that transient prenatal vitamin D depletion in the rat is associated with subtle and discrete alterations in learning and memory. The behavioural phenotype associated with this animal model may provide insights into the neurobiological correlates of the cognitive impairments of schizophrenia. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.
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Background - Smoking is a major cause of cardiovascular disease mortality. There is little information on how it contributes to global and regional cause-specific mortality from cardiovascular diseases for which background risk varies because of other risks. Method and Results - We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) and the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease mortality database to estimate smoking-attributable deaths from ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and a cluster of other cardiovascular diseases for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.62 (95% CI, 1.27 to 2.04) million cardiovascular deaths in the world, 11% of total global cardiovascular deaths, were due to smoking. Of these, 1.17 million deaths were among men and 450 000 among women. There were 670 000 (95% CI, 440 000 to 920 000) smoking-attributable cardiovascular deaths in the developing world and 960 000 (95% CI, 770 000 to 1 200 000) in industrialized regions. Ischemic heart disease accounted for 54% of smoking-attributable cardiovascular mortality, followed by cerebrovascular disease (25%). There was variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of various cardiovascular diseases. Conclusions - More than 1 in every 10 cardiovascular deaths in the world in the year 2000 were attributable to smoking, demonstrating that it is an important preventable cause of cardiovascular mortality.
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OBJECTIVE To determine whether the academic performance of medical students learning in rural settings differs from those learning in urban settings. DESIGN Comparison of results of assessment for 2 full cohorts and 1 part cohort of medical students learning in rural and urban settings in 2002 (209 students), 2003 (226 students) and 2004 (220 students), including results for each specialist rotation in the 3rd year and end-of-year examinations in the 2nd and 4th years. SETTING University of Queensland School of Medicine, Brisbane. Students spent the whole 3rd year (of a 4-year graduate entry programme) conducting 5 specialist 8-week rotations in either the rural clinical division (rural students) or in Brisbane (urban students), all following the same curriculum and taking the same examinations. RESULTS For the 2002 cohort there were no statistically significant differences in academic performance between rural and urban students. For the 2003 cohort the only significant difference was a higher score for rural students in the end of the 4th-year clinical skills examination (65.7 versus 62.3%, P = 0.025). For the 2004 cohort, rural students scored higher in the 3rd-year mental health rotation (79.3 versus 76.2%, P = 0.038) and lower in the medicine rotation (65.5 versus 68.6%, P = 0.037). CONCLUSION Academic performance among students studying in rural and urban settings is comparable.
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A T cell antigen receptor (TCR) transmembrane sequence derived peptide (CP) has been shown to inhibit T cell activation both in vitro and in vivo at the membrane level of the receptor signal transduction. To examine the effect of sugar or lipid conjugations on CP function, we linked CP to 1-aminoglucosesuccinate (GS), N-myristate (MYR), mono-di-tripalmitate (LP1, LP2, or LP3), and a lipoamino acid (LA) and examined the effects of these compounds on T cell activation in vitro and by using a rat model of adjuvant-induced arthritis, in vivo. In vitro, antigen presentation results demonstrated that lipid conjugation enhanced CP's ability to lower IL-2 production from 56.99% +/- 15.69 S.D. observed with CP, to 12.08% +/- 3.34 S.D. observed with LA. The sugar conjugate GS resulted in only a mild loss of in vitro activity compared to CP (82.95% +/- 14.96 S.D.). In vivo, lipid conjugation retarded the progression of adjuvant-induced arthritis by approximately 50%, whereas the sugar. conjugated CP, GS, almost completely inhibited the progression of arthritis. This study demonstrates that hydrophobic peptide activity is markedly enhanced in vitro and in vivo by conjugation to lipids or sugars. This may have practical applications in drug delivery and bioavailability of hydrophobic peptides. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.