A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

What's in your tool box?

This is a professional practice paper for Psychology practitioners to reflect on their skills and therapeutic practices. A Master- practitioner model or Artizan - apprentice analogy is used to understand the development of a practicing psychologist from his/her "salad days" (when we are green [Shakespeare- Anthony and Cleopatra]) to our Autumn years in the profession.

Transcriptome Profiling of Sexual Maturation and Mating in the Mediterranean Fruit Fly, Ceratitis capitata

Sexual maturation and mating in insects are generally accompanied by major physiological and behavioural changes. Many of these changes are related to the need to locate a mate and subsequently, in the case of females, to switch from mate searching to oviposition behaviour. The prodigious reproductive capacity of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata, is one of the factors that has led to its success as an invasive pest species. To identify the molecular changes related to maturation and mating status in male and female medfly, a microarray-based gene expression approach was used to compare the head transcriptomes of sexually immature, mature virgin, and mated individuals. Attention was focused on the changes in abundance of transcripts related to reproduction, behaviour, sensory perception of chemical stimulus, and immune system processes. Broad transcriptional changes were recorded during female maturation, while post-mating transcriptional changes in females were, by contrast, modest. In male medfly, transcriptional changes were consistent both during maturation and as a consequence of mating. Of particular note was the lack of the mating-induced immune responses that have been recorded for Drosophila melanogaster, that may be due to the different reproductive strategies of these species. This study, in addition to increasing our understanding of the molecular machinery behind maturation and mating in the medfly, has identified important gene targets that might be useful in the future management of this pest.

Sherlockian adolescence for the twenty-first century : Conan Doyle’s ‘six dirty little scoundrels’ and contemporary children’s literature

Young adult literature is a socialising genre that encourages young readers to take up very particular ways of relating to historical or cultural materials. Recent years have seen a boom in Sherlockian YA fiction inviting reader identification either with the Baker Street Irregulars or an adolescent Holmes. In works by Anthony Read, Andrew Lane, Tracy Mack & Michael Citrin, and Tony Lee, the Sherlock canon provides a vocabulary for neo-Victorian young adult fiction to simultaneously invoke and defer a range of competing visions of working childhood as both at-risk and autonomous; of education as both oppression and emancipation; and of literary-cultural history as both populist and elitist. Such tensions can be traced in Conan Doyle’s own constructions of working children, and in the circulation of the Sherlock stories as popular or literary fictions. Drawing both on the Sherlock canon and its revisions, this paper reads current YA fiction’s deployment of Conan Doyle’s fictional universe as a tool for negotiating contemporary anxieties of adolescence.

An attack on Iran: the legal basis, or lack thereof

Talk of a possible Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities has re-ignited debate over the right of self-defence under international law. Some academics, including Anthony D'Amato and Alan Dershowitz, have claimed that an attack on Iran would be a permissible act of self-defence. Others, such as Kevin Jon Heller, argue that such action would be a clear breach of international law. So, who is correct? Would military action against Iran be legal or illegal?

The economics of happiness : a lifetime perspective

The three studies in this thesis focus on happiness and age and seek to contribute to our understanding of happiness change over the lifetime. The first study contributes by offering an explanation for what was evolving to a ‘stylised fact’ in the economics literature, the U-shape of happiness in age. No U-shape is evident if one makes a visual inspection of the age happiness relationship in the German socio-economic panel data, and, it seems counter-intuitive that we just have to wait until we get old to be happy. Eliminating the very young, the very old, and the first timers from the analysis did not explain away regression results supporting the U-shape of happiness in age, but fixed effect analysis did. Analysis revealed found that reverse causality arising from time-invariant individual traits explained the U-shape of happiness in age in the German population, and the results were robust across six econometric methods. Robustness was added to the German fixed effect finding by replicating it with the Australian and the British socio-economic panel data sets. During analysis of the German data an unexpected finding emerged, an exceedingly large negative linear effect of age on happiness in fixed-effect regressions. There is a large self-reported happiness decline by those who remain in the German panel. A similar decline over time was not evident in the Australian or the British data. After testing away age, time and cohort effects, a time-in-panel effect was found. Germans who remain in the panel for longer progressively report lower levels of happiness. Because time-in-panel effects have not been included in happiness regression specifications, our estimates may be biased; perhaps some economics of the happiness studies, that used German panel data, need revisiting. The second study builds upon the fixed-effect finding of the first study and extends our view of lifetime happiness to a cohort little visited by economists, children. Initial analysis extends our view of lifetime happiness beyond adulthood and revealed a happiness decline in adolescent (15 to 23 year-old) Australians that is twice the size of the happiness decline we see in older Australians (75 to 86 yearolds), who we expect to be unhappy due to declining income, failing health and the onset of death. To resolve a difference of opinion in the literature as to whether childhood happiness decreases, increases, or remains flat in age; survey instruments and an Internet-based survey were developed and used to collect data from four hundred 9 to 14 year-old Australian children. Applying the data to a Model of Childhood Happiness revealed that the natural environment life-satisfaction domain factor did not have a significant effect on childhood happiness. However, the children’s school environment and interactions with friends life-satisfaction domain factors explained over half a steep decline in childhood happiness that is three times larger than what we see in older Australians. Adding personality to the model revealed what we expect to see with adults, extraverted children are happier, but unexpectedly, so are conscientious children. With the steep decline in the happiness of young Australians revealed and explanations offered, the third study builds on the time-invariant individual trait finding from the first study by applying the Australian panel data to an Aggregate Model of Average Happiness over the lifetime. The model’s independent variable is the stress that arises from the interaction between personality and the life event shocks that affect individuals and peers throughout their lives. Interestingly, a graphic depiction of the stress in age relationship reveals an inverse U-shape; an inverse U-shape that looks like the opposite of the U-shape of happiness in age we saw in the first study. The stress arising from life event shocks is found to explain much of the change in average happiness over a lifetime. With the policy recommendations of economists potentially invoking unexpected changes in our lives, the ensuing stress and resulting (un)happiness warrant consideration before economists make policy recommendations.

Rational avoidance of accountability

Anthony Downs public choice theory proposes that every rational person would try to meet their own desires in preference to those of others, and that such rational persons would attempt to obtain these desires in the most efficient manner possible. This paper will demonstrate that the application of this theory would mean that public servants and politicians would perform acts of corruption and maladministration in order to efficiently meet their desires. As such action is unavoidable, political parties must appear to meet the public demand for accountability systems, but must not make these systems viable lest they expose the corruption and maladministration that would threaten the government’s chance or re-election. It is therefore logical for governments to display a commitment for accountability whilst simultaneously ensuring the systems would not be able to interfere with government control or expose its flaws.

Using approximate Bayesian computation to estimate transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.

The macrophage-inducible C-type lectin, Mincle, is an essential component of the innate immune response to Candida albicans

The recognition of carbohydrate moieties by cells of the innate immune system is emerging as an essential element in antifungal immunity, but despite the number and diversity of lectins expressed by innate immune cells, few carbohydrate receptors have been characterized. Mincle, a C-type lectin, is expressed predominantly on macrophages, and is here shown to play a role in macrophage responses to the yeast Candida albicans. After exposure to the yeast in vitro, Mincle localized to the phagocytic cup, but it was not essential for phagocytosis. In the absence of Mincle, production of TNF-_ by macrophages was reduced, both in vivo and in vitro. In addition, mice lacking Mincle showed a significantly increased susceptibility to systemic candidiasis. Thus, Mincle plays a novel and nonredundant role in the induction of inflammatory signaling in response to C. albicans infection.

SNAREing immunity : the role of SNAREs in the immune system

The trafficking of molecules and membranes within cells is a prerequisite for all aspects of cellular immune functions, including the delivery and recycling of cell surface proteins, secretion of immune mediators, ingestion of pathogens and activation of lymphocytes. SNARE (soluble-N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive-factor accessory-protein receptor)-family members mediate membrane fusion during all steps of trafficking, and function in almost all aspects of innate and adaptive immune responses. Here, we provide an overview of the roles of SNAREs in immune cells, offering insight into one level at which precision and tight regulation are instilled on immune responses.