Anisotropic adaptive resolution of boundary layers for heat conduction problems

We deal with the numerical solution of heat conduction problems featuring steep gradients. In order to solve the associated partial differential equation a finite volume technique is used and unstructured grids are employed. A discrete maximum principle for triangulations of a Delaunay type is developed. To capture thin boundary layers incorporating steep gradients an anisotropic mesh adaptation technique is implemented. Computational tests are performed for an academic problem where the exact solution is known as well as for a real world problem of a computer simulation of the thermoregulation of premature infants.

Bayes quadratic unbiased estimator of spatial covariance parameters

This work presents Bayes invariant quadratic unbiased estimator, for short BAIQUE. Bayesian approach is used here to estimate the covariance functions of the regionalized variables which appear in the spatial covariance structure in mixed linear model. Firstly a brief review of spatial process, variance covariance components structure and Bayesian inference is given, since this project deals with these concepts. Then the linear equations model corresponding to BAIQUE in the general case is formulated. That Bayes estimator of variance components with too many unknown parameters is complicated to be solved analytically. Hence, in order to facilitate the handling with this system, BAIQUE of spatial covariance model with two parameters is considered. Bayesian estimation arises as a solution of a linear equations system which requires the linearity of the covariance functions in the parameters. Here the availability of prior information on the parameters is assumed. This information includes apriori distribution functions which enable to find the first and the second moments matrix. The Bayesian estimation suggested here depends only on the second moment of the prior distribution. The estimation appears as a quadratic form y'Ay , where y is the vector of filtered data observations. This quadratic estimator is used to estimate the linear function of unknown variance components. The matrix A of BAIQUE plays an important role. If such a symmetrical matrix exists, then Bayes risk becomes minimal and the unbiasedness conditions are fulfilled. Therefore, the symmetry of this matrix is elaborated in this work. Through dealing with the infinite series of matrices, a representation of the matrix A is obtained which shows the symmetry of A. In this context, the largest singular value of the decomposed matrix of the infinite series is considered to deal with the convergence condition and also it is connected with Gerschgorin Discs and Poincare theorem. Then the BAIQUE model for some experimental designs is computed and compared. The comparison deals with different aspects, such as the influence of the position of the design points in a fixed interval. The designs that are considered are those with their points distributed in the interval [0, 1]. These experimental structures are compared with respect to the Bayes risk and norms of the matrices corresponding to distances, covariance structures and matrices which have to satisfy the convergence condition. Also different types of the regression functions and distance measurements are handled. The influence of scaling on the design points is studied, moreover, the influence of the covariance structure on the best design is investigated and different covariance structures are considered. Finally, BAIQUE is applied for real data. The corresponding outcomes are compared with the results of other methods for the same data. Thereby, the special BAIQUE, which estimates the general variance of the data, achieves a very close result to the classical empirical variance.

Determination of yield and quality parameters of energy crops applying laboratory and field spectroscopy

A real-time analysis of renewable energy sources, such as arable crops, is of great importance with regard to an optimised process management, since aspects of ecology and biodiversity are considered in crop production in order to provide a sustainable energy supply by biomass. This study was undertaken to explore the potential of spectroscopic measurement procedures for the prediction of potassium (K), chloride (Cl), and phosphate (P), of dry matter (DM) yield, metabolisable energy (ME), ash and crude fibre contents (ash, CF), crude lipid (EE), nitrate free extracts (NfE) as well as of crude protein (CP) and nitrogen (N), respectively in pretreated samples and undisturbed crops. Three experiments were conducted, one in a laboratory using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and two field spectroscopic experiments. Laboratory NIRS measurements were conducted to evaluate to what extent a prediction of quality parameters is possible examining press cakes characterised by a wide heterogeneity of their parent material. 210 samples were analysed subsequent to a mechanical dehydration using a screw press. Press cakes serve as solid fuel for thermal conversion. Field spectroscopic measurements were carried out with regard to further technical development using different field grown crops. A one year lasting experiment over a binary mixture of grass and red clover examined the impact of different degrees of sky cover on prediction accuracies of distinct plant parameters. Furthermore, an artificial light source was used in order to evaluate to what extent such a light source is able to minimise cloud effects on prediction accuracies. A three years lasting experiment with maize was conducted in order to evaluate the potential of off-nadir measurements inside a canopy to predict different quality parameters in total biomass and DM yield using one sensor for a potential on-the-go application. This approach implements a measurement of the plants in 50 cm segments, since a sensor adjusted sideways is not able to record the entire plant height. Calibration results obtained by nadir top-of-canopy reflectance measurements were compared to calibration results obtained by off-nadir measurements. Results of all experiments approve the applicability of spectroscopic measurements for the prediction of distinct biophysical and biochemical parameters in the laboratory and under field conditions, respectively. The estimation of parameters could be conducted to a great extent with high accuracy. An enhanced basis of calibration for the laboratory study and the first field experiment (grass/clover-mixture) yields in improved robustness of calibration models and allows for an extended application of spectroscopic measurement techniques, even under varying conditions. Furthermore, off-nadir measurements inside a canopy yield in higher prediction accuracies, particularly for crops characterised by distinct height increment as observed for maize.

Effects of plant diversity on bioenergy parameters in grassland biomass

Extensive grassland biomass for bioenergy production has long been subject of scientific research. The possibility of combining nature conservation goals with a profitable management while reducing competition with food production has created a strong interest in this topic. However, the botanical composition will play a key role for solid fuel quality of grassland biomass and will have effects on the combustion process by potentially causing corrosion, emission and slagging. On the other hand, botanical composition will affect anaerobic digestibility and thereby the biogas potential. In this thesis aboveground biomass from the Jena-Experiment plots was harvested in 2008 and 2009 and analysed for the most relevant chemical constituents effecting fuel quality and anaerobic digestibility. Regarding combustion, the following parameters were of main focus: higher heating value (HHV), gross energy yield (GE), ash content, ash softening temperature (AST), K, Ca, Mg, N, Cl and S content. For biogas production the following parameters were investigated: substrate specific methane yield (CH4 sub), area specific methane yield (CH4 area), crude fibre (CF), crude protein (CP), crude lipid (CL) and nitrogen-free extract (NfE). Furthermore, an improvement of the fuel quality was investigated through applying the Integrated generation of solid Fuel and Biogas from Biomass (IFBB) procedure. Through the specific setup of the Jena-Experiment it was possible to outline the changes of these parameters along two diversity gradients: (i) species richness (SR; 1 to 60 species) and (ii) functional group (grasses, legumes, small herbs and tall herbs) presence. This was a novel approach on investigating the bioenergy characteristic of extensive grassland biomass and gave detailed insight in the sward-composition¬ - bioenergy relations such as: (i) the most relevant SR effect was the increase of energy yield for both combustion (annual GE increased by 26% from SR8→16 and by 65% from SR8→60) and anaerobic digestion (annual CH4 area increased by 22% from SR8→16 and by 49% from SR8→60) through a strong interaction of SR with biomass yield; (ii) legumes play a key role for the utilization of grassland biomass for energy production as they increase the energy content of the substrate (HHV and CH4 sub) and the energy yield (GE and CH4 area); (iii) combustion is the conversion technique that will yield the highest energy output but requires an improvement of the solid fuel quality in order to reduce the risk of corrosion, emission and slagging related problems. This was achieved through applying the IFBB-procedure, with reductions in ash (by 23%), N (28%), K (85%), Cl (56%) and S (59%) and equal levels of concentrations along the SR gradient.

Climate-Adaptive Community Water Management for Food Security: Experiences from the UNDP Community Water Initiative

Facing the double menace of climate change threats and water crisis, poor communities have now encountered ever more severe challenges in ensuring agricultural productivity and food security. Communities hence have to manage these challenges by adopting a comprehensive approach that not only enhances water resource management, but also adapts agricultural activities to climate variability. Implemented by the Global Environment Facility’s Small Grants Programme, the Community Water Initiative (CWI) has adopted a distinctive approach to support demand-driven, innovative, low cost and community-based water resource management for food security. Experiences from CWI showed that a comprehensive, locally adapted approach that integrates water resources management, poverty reduction, climate adaptation and community empowerment provides a good model for sustainable development in poor rural areas.

The Human in the Loop: User Participation in Self-Adaptive Software

Self-adaptive software provides a profound solution for adapting applications to changing contexts in dynamic and heterogeneous environments. Having emerged from Autonomic Computing, it incorporates fully autonomous decision making based on predefined structural and behavioural models. The most common approach for architectural runtime adaptation is the MAPE-K adaptation loop implementing an external adaptation manager without manual user control. However, it has turned out that adaptation behaviour lacks acceptance if it does not correspond to a user’s expectations – particularly for Ubiquitous Computing scenarios with user interaction. Adaptations can be irritating and distracting if they are not appropriate for a certain situation. In general, uncertainty during development and at run-time causes problems with users being outside the adaptation loop. In a literature study, we analyse publications about self-adaptive software research. The results show a discrepancy between the motivated application domains, the maturity of examples, and the quality of evaluations on the one hand and the provided solutions on the other hand. Only few publications analysed the impact of their work on the user, but many employ user-oriented examples for motivation and demonstration. To incorporate the user within the adaptation loop and to deal with uncertainty, our proposed solutions enable user participation for interactive selfadaptive software while at the same time maintaining the benefits of intelligent autonomous behaviour. We define three dimensions of user participation, namely temporal, behavioural, and structural user participation. This dissertation contributes solutions for user participation in the temporal and behavioural dimension. The temporal dimension addresses the moment of adaptation which is classically determined by the self-adaptive system. We provide mechanisms allowing users to influence or to define the moment of adaptation. With our solution, users can have full control over the moment of adaptation or the self-adaptive software considers the user’s situation more appropriately. The behavioural dimension addresses the actual adaptation logic and the resulting run-time behaviour. Application behaviour is established during development and does not necessarily match the run-time expectations. Our contributions are three distinct solutions which allow users to make changes to the application’s runtime behaviour: dynamic utility functions, fuzzy-based reasoning, and learning-based reasoning. The foundation of our work is a notification and feedback solution that improves intelligibility and controllability of self-adaptive applications by implementing a bi-directional communication between self-adaptive software and the user. The different mechanisms from the temporal and behavioural participation dimension require the notification and feedback solution to inform users on adaptation actions and to provide a mechanism to influence adaptations. Case studies show the feasibility of the developed solutions. Moreover, an extensive user study with 62 participants was conducted to evaluate the impact of notifications before and after adaptations. Although the study revealed that there is no preference for a particular notification design, participants clearly appreciated intelligibility and controllability over autonomous adaptations.

Adaptive Real-time Anomaly-based Intrusion Detection using Data Mining and Machine Learning Techniques

Die zunehmende Vernetzung der Informations- und Kommunikationssysteme führt zu einer weiteren Erhöhung der Komplexität und damit auch zu einer weiteren Zunahme von Sicherheitslücken. Klassische Schutzmechanismen wie Firewall-Systeme und Anti-Malware-Lösungen bieten schon lange keinen Schutz mehr vor Eindringversuchen in IT-Infrastrukturen. Als ein sehr wirkungsvolles Instrument zum Schutz gegenüber Cyber-Attacken haben sich hierbei die Intrusion Detection Systeme (IDS) etabliert. Solche Systeme sammeln und analysieren Informationen von Netzwerkkomponenten und Rechnern, um ungewöhnliches Verhalten und Sicherheitsverletzungen automatisiert festzustellen. Während signatur-basierte Ansätze nur bereits bekannte Angriffsmuster detektieren können, sind anomalie-basierte IDS auch in der Lage, neue bisher unbekannte Angriffe (Zero-Day-Attacks) frühzeitig zu erkennen. Das Kernproblem von Intrusion Detection Systeme besteht jedoch in der optimalen Verarbeitung der gewaltigen Netzdaten und der Entwicklung eines in Echtzeit arbeitenden adaptiven Erkennungsmodells. Um diese Herausforderungen lösen zu können, stellt diese Dissertation ein Framework bereit, das aus zwei Hauptteilen besteht. Der erste Teil, OptiFilter genannt, verwendet ein dynamisches "Queuing Concept", um die zahlreich anfallenden Netzdaten weiter zu verarbeiten, baut fortlaufend Netzverbindungen auf, und exportiert strukturierte Input-Daten für das IDS. Den zweiten Teil stellt ein adaptiver Klassifikator dar, der ein Klassifikator-Modell basierend auf "Enhanced Growing Hierarchical Self Organizing Map" (EGHSOM), ein Modell für Netzwerk Normalzustand (NNB) und ein "Update Model" umfasst. In dem OptiFilter werden Tcpdump und SNMP traps benutzt, um die Netzwerkpakete und Hostereignisse fortlaufend zu aggregieren. Diese aggregierten Netzwerkpackete und Hostereignisse werden weiter analysiert und in Verbindungsvektoren umgewandelt. Zur Verbesserung der Erkennungsrate des adaptiven Klassifikators wird das künstliche neuronale Netz GHSOM intensiv untersucht und wesentlich weiterentwickelt. In dieser Dissertation werden unterschiedliche Ansätze vorgeschlagen und diskutiert. So wird eine classification-confidence margin threshold definiert, um die unbekannten bösartigen Verbindungen aufzudecken, die Stabilität der Wachstumstopologie durch neuartige Ansätze für die Initialisierung der Gewichtvektoren und durch die Stärkung der Winner Neuronen erhöht, und ein selbst-adaptives Verfahren eingeführt, um das Modell ständig aktualisieren zu können. Darüber hinaus besteht die Hauptaufgabe des NNB-Modells in der weiteren Untersuchung der erkannten unbekannten Verbindungen von der EGHSOM und der Überprüfung, ob sie normal sind. Jedoch, ändern sich die Netzverkehrsdaten wegen des Concept drif Phänomens ständig, was in Echtzeit zur Erzeugung nicht stationärer Netzdaten führt. Dieses Phänomen wird von dem Update-Modell besser kontrolliert. Das EGHSOM-Modell kann die neuen Anomalien effektiv erkennen und das NNB-Model passt die Änderungen in Netzdaten optimal an. Bei den experimentellen Untersuchungen hat das Framework erfolgversprechende Ergebnisse gezeigt. Im ersten Experiment wurde das Framework in Offline-Betriebsmodus evaluiert. Der OptiFilter wurde mit offline-, synthetischen- und realistischen Daten ausgewertet. Der adaptive Klassifikator wurde mit dem 10-Fold Cross Validation Verfahren evaluiert, um dessen Genauigkeit abzuschätzen. Im zweiten Experiment wurde das Framework auf einer 1 bis 10 GB Netzwerkstrecke installiert und im Online-Betriebsmodus in Echtzeit ausgewertet. Der OptiFilter hat erfolgreich die gewaltige Menge von Netzdaten in die strukturierten Verbindungsvektoren umgewandelt und der adaptive Klassifikator hat sie präzise klassifiziert. Die Vergleichsstudie zwischen dem entwickelten Framework und anderen bekannten IDS-Ansätzen zeigt, dass der vorgeschlagene IDSFramework alle anderen Ansätze übertrifft. Dies lässt sich auf folgende Kernpunkte zurückführen: Bearbeitung der gesammelten Netzdaten, Erreichung der besten Performanz (wie die Gesamtgenauigkeit), Detektieren unbekannter Verbindungen und Entwicklung des in Echtzeit arbeitenden Erkennungsmodells von Eindringversuchen.

Interrelatedness of grazing livestock with vegetation parameters and farmers’ livelihoods in the Mahafaly region, southwestern Madagascar

The study aims to get deeper insight into the highly extensive system of animal husbandry in the Mahafaly region of southwestern Madagascar. It tries to understand the major drivers for pastoral dynamics, land and resource use along a gradient in altitude and vegetation to consider the area’s high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The study also analyzes the reproductive performance of local livestock as well as the owners’ culling strategies to determine herd dynamics, opportunities for economic growth, and future potential for rural development. Across seasons, plateau herds from both livestock species covered longer distances (cattle 13.6±3.02 km, goats 12.3±3.48 km) and were found further away from the settlements (cattle 3.1±0.96 km, goats 2.8±0.98 km) than those from the coastal plain (walking_dist: cattle 9.5±3.25 km, goats 9.2±2.57 km; max_dist: cattle 2.6±1.28 km, goats 1.8±0.61 km). Transhumant cattle were detected more vulnerable through limited access to pasture land and water resources compared to local herds. Seasonal water shortage has been confirmed as a key constraint on the plateau while livestock keeping along the coast is more limited by dry season forage availability. However, recent security issues and land use conflicts with local crop farmers are gaining importance and force livestock owners to adapt their traditional grazing management, resulting in spatio-temporal variation of livestock numbers and in the impending risk of local overgrazing and degradation of rangelands. Among the 133 plant species consumed by livestock, 13 were determined of major importance for the animals’ nutrition. The nutritive value and digestibility of the natural forage, as well as its abundance in the coastal zone, substantially decreased over the course of the dry season and emphasized the importance of supplementary forage plants, in particular Euphorbia stenoclada. At the same time, an unsustainable utilization and overexploitation of its wild stocks may raise the pressure on the vegetation and pasture resources within the nearby Tsimanampetsotsa National Park. Age at first parturition was 40.5±0.59 months for cattle and 21.3±0.63 months for goats. Both species showed long parturition intervals (cattle 24.2±0.48 months, goats 12.4±0.30 months), mostly due to the maintenance of poorly performing breeding females within the herds. Reported offspring mortality, however, was low with 2.5% of cattle and 18.8% of goats dying before reaching maturity. The analysis of economic information revealed higher than expected market dynamics, especially for zebus, resulting in annual contribution margins of 33 € per cattle unit and 11 € per goat unit. The application of the PRY Herd Life model to simulate herd development for present management and two alternate scenarios confirmed the economic profitability of the current livestock system and showed potential for further productive and economic development. However, this might be clearly limited by the region’s restricted carrying capacity. Summarizing, this study illustrates the highly extensive and resources-driven character of the livestock system in the Mahafaly region, with herd mobility being a central element to cope with seasonal shortages in forage and water. But additional key drivers and external factors are gaining importance and increasingly affect migration decisions and grazing management. This leads to an increased risk of local overgrazing and overexploitation of natural pasture resources and intensifies the tension between pastoral and conservation interests. At the same time, it hampers the region’s agronomic development, which has not yet been fully exploited. The situation therefore demonstrates the need for practical improvement suggestions and implication measures, such as the systematic forestation of supplemental forage plant species in the coastal zone or a stronger integration of animal husbandry and crop production, to sustain the traditional livestock system without compromising peoples’ livelihoods while at the same time minimizing the pastoral impact on the area’s unique nature and environment.

Geometric Structure of the Adaptive Controller of the Human Arm

The objects with which the hand interacts with may significantly change the dynamics of the arm. How does the brain adapt control of arm movements to this new dynamic? We show that adaptation is via composition of a model of the task's dynamics. By exploring generalization capabilities of this adaptation we infer some of the properties of the computational elements with which the brain formed this model: the elements have broad receptive fields and encode the learned dynamics as a map structured in an intrinsic coordinate system closely related to the geometry of the skeletomusculature. The low--level nature of these elements suggests that they may represent asset of primitives with which a movement is represented in the CNS.

Learning-Based Approach to Estimation of Morphable Model Parameters

We describe the key role played by partial evaluation in the Supercomputing Toolkit, a parallel computing system for scientific applications that effectively exploits the vast amount of parallelism exposed by partial evaluation. The Supercomputing Toolkit parallel processor and its associated partial evaluation-based compiler have been used extensively by scientists at MIT, and have made possible recent results in astrophysics showing that the motion of the planets in our solar system is chaotically unstable.

Model Order Reduction for Determining Bubble Parameters to Attain a Desired Fluid Surface Shape

In this paper, a new methodology for predicting fluid free surface shape using Model Order Reduction (MOR) is presented. Proper Orthogonal Decomposition combined with a linear interpolation procedure for its coefficient is applied to a problem involving bubble dynamics near to a free surface. A model is developed to accurately and efficiently capture the variation of the free surface shape with different bubble parameters. In addition, a systematic approach is developed within the MOR framework to find the best initial locations and pressures for a set of bubbles beneath the quiescent free surface such that the resultant free surface attained is close to a desired shape. Predictions of the free surface in two-dimensions and three-dimensions are presented.

Inference of distributional parameters from compositional samples containing nondetects

Low concentrations of elements in geochemical analyses have the peculiarity of being compositional data and, for a given level of significance, are likely to be beyond the capabilities of laboratories to distinguish between minute concentrations and complete absence, thus preventing laboratories from reporting extremely low concentrations of the analyte. Instead, what is reported is the detection limit, which is the minimum concentration that conclusively differentiates between presence and absence of the element. A spatially distributed exhaustive sample is employed in this study to generate unbiased sub-samples, which are further censored to observe the effect that different detection limits and sample sizes have on the inference of population distributions starting from geochemical analyses having specimens below detection limit (nondetects). The isometric logratio transformation is used to convert the compositional data in the simplex to samples in real space, thus allowing the practitioner to properly borrow from the large source of statistical techniques valid only in real space. The bootstrap method is used to numerically investigate the reliability of inferring several distributional parameters employing different forms of imputation for the censored data. The case study illustrates that, in general, best results are obtained when imputations are made using the distribution best fitting the readings above detection limit and exposes the problems of other more widely used practices. When the sample is spatially correlated, it is necessary to combine the bootstrap with stochastic simulation

eCAT-Listening : Design and psychometric properties of a computerized adaptive test on English Listening

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