Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Unravelling the conundrum of tannins in animal nutrition and health

This paper examines the nutritional and veterinary effects of tannins on ruminants and makes some comparisons with non-ruminants. Tannin chemistry per se is not covered and readers are referred to several excellent reviews instead: (a) Okuda T et al. Heterocycles 30:1195-1218 (1990); (b) Ferreira D and Slade D. Nat Prod Rep 19:517-541 (2002); (c) Yoshida T et al. In Studies in Natural Product Chemistry. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp. 395-453 (2000); (d) Khanbabaee K and van Ree T. Nat Prod Rep 18:641-649 (2001); (e) Okuda et al. Phytochemistvy 55:513-529 (2000). The effects of tannins on rumen micro-organisms are also not reviewed, as these have been addressed by others: (a) McSweeney CS et al. Anim Feed Sci Technol 91:83-93 (2001); (b) Smith AH and Mackie RI. Appl Environ Microbiol 70:1104-1115 (2004). This paper deals first with the nutritional effects of tannins in animal feeds, their qualitative and quantitative diversity, and the implications of tannin-protein complexation. It then summarises the known physiological and harmful effects and discusses the equivocal evidence of the bioavailability of tannins. Issues concerning tannin metabolism and systemic effects are also considered. Opportunities are presented on how to treat feeds with high tannin contents, and some lesser-known but successful feeding strategies are highlighted. Recent research has explored the use of tannins for preventing animal deaths from bloat, for reducing intestinal parasites and for lowering gaseous ammonia and methane emissions. Finally, several tannin assays and a hypothesis are discussed that merit further investigation in order to assess their suitability for predicting animal responses. The aim is to provoke discussion and spur readers into new approaches. An attempt is made to synthesise the emerging information for relating tannin structures with their activities. Although many plants with high levels of tannins produce negative effects and require treatments, others are very useful animal feeds. Our ability to predict whether tannin-containing feeds confer positive or negative effects will depend on interdisciplinary research between animal nutritionists and plant chemists. The elucidation of tannin structure-activity relationships presents exciting opportunities for future feeding strategies that will benefit ruminants and the environment within the contexts of extensive, semi-intensive and some intensive agricultural systems. (c) 2006 Society of Chemical Industry

Unravelling the conundrum of tannins in animal nutrition and health

This paper examines the nutritional and veterinary effects of tannins on ruminants and makes some comparisons with non-ruminants. Tannin chemistry per se is not covered and readers are referred to several excellent reviews instead: (a) Okuda T et al. Heterocycles 30:1195-1218 (1990); (b) Ferreira D and Slade D. Nat Prod Rep 19:517-541 (2002); (c) Yoshida T et al. In Studies in Natural Product Chemistry. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp. 395-453 (2000); (d) Khanbabaee K and van Ree T. Nat Prod Rep 18:641-649 (2001); (e) Okuda et al. Phytochemistvy 55:513-529 (2000). The effects of tannins on rumen micro-organisms are also not reviewed, as these have been addressed by others: (a) McSweeney CS et al. Anim Feed Sci Technol 91:83-93 (2001); (b) Smith AH and Mackie RI. Appl Environ Microbiol 70:1104-1115 (2004). This paper deals first with the nutritional effects of tannins in animal feeds, their qualitative and quantitative diversity, and the implications of tannin-protein complexation. It then summarises the known physiological and harmful effects and discusses the equivocal evidence of the bioavailability of tannins. Issues concerning tannin metabolism and systemic effects are also considered. Opportunities are presented on how to treat feeds with high tannin contents, and some lesser-known but successful feeding strategies are highlighted. Recent research has explored the use of tannins for preventing animal deaths from bloat, for reducing intestinal parasites and for lowering gaseous ammonia and methane emissions. Finally, several tannin assays and a hypothesis are discussed that merit further investigation in order to assess their suitability for predicting animal responses. The aim is to provoke discussion and spur readers into new approaches. An attempt is made to synthesise the emerging information for relating tannin structures with their activities. Although many plants with high levels of tannins produce negative effects and require treatments, others are very useful animal feeds. Our ability to predict whether tannin-containing feeds confer positive or negative effects will depend on interdisciplinary research between animal nutritionists and plant chemists. The elucidation of tannin structure-activity relationships presents exciting opportunities for future feeding strategies that will benefit ruminants and the environment within the contexts of extensive, semi-intensive and some intensive agricultural systems. (c) 2006 Society of Chemical Industry

Evidence for the presence of bluetongue virus in Kosovo between 2001 and 2004

In 2001, clinical cases of bluetongue were observed in Kosovo, and in that year and in 2003 and 2004, serum samples were collected from cattle and small ruminants and tested for antibodies to bluetongue virus. The results provide evidence that bluetongue virus was not present in Kosovo before the summer of 2001, but that the virus circulated subclinically among the cattle and sheep populations of Kosovo in 2002, 2003 and 2004.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

Coxsackievirus B3-associated myocardial pathology and viral load reduced by recombinant soluble human decay-accelerating factor in mice

Coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) infection can result in myocarditis, which in turn may lead to a protracted immune response and subsequent dilated cardiomyopathy. Human decay-accelerating factor (DAF), a binding receptor for CVB3, was synthesized as a soluble IgG1-Fc fusion protein (DAF-Fc). In vitro, DAF-Fc was able to inhibit complement activity and block infection by CVB3, although blockade of infection varied widely among strains of CVB3. To determine the effects of DAF-Fc in vivo, 40 adolescent A/J mice were infected with a myopathic strain of CVB3 and given DAF-Fc treatment 3 days before infection, during infection, or 3 days after infection; the mice were compared with virus alone and sham-infected animals. Sections of heart, spleen, kidney, pancreas, and liver were stained with hematoxylin and eosin and submitted to in situ hybridization for both positive-strand and negative-strand viral RNA to determine the extent of myocarditis and viral infection, respectively. Salient histopathologic features, including myocardial lesion area, cell death, calcification and inflammatory cell infiltration, pancreatitis, and hepatitis were scored without knowledge of the experimental groups. DAF-Fc treatment of mice either preceding or concurrent with CVB3 infection resulted in a significant decrease in myocardial lesion area and cell death and a reduction in the presence of viral RNA. All DAF-Fc treatment groups had reduced infectious CVB3 recoverable from the heart after infection. DAF-Fc may be a novel therapeutic agent for active myocarditis and acute dilated cardiomyopathy if given early in the infectious period, although more studies are needed to determine its mechanism and efficacy.

UK construction orders and output: A comparison of government and commercially available data 1995-2001

Because of the importance and potential usefulness of construction market statistics to firms and government, consistency between different sources of data is examined with a view to building a predictive model of construction output using construction data alone. However, a comparison of Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) series shows that the correlation coefcient (used as a measure of consistency) of the DTI output and DTI orders data and the correlation coefficient of the DTI output and ONS output data are low. It is not possible to derive a predictive model of DTI output based on DTI orders data alone. The question arises whether or not an alternative independent source of data may be used to predict DTI output data. Independent data produced by Emap Glenigan (EG), based on planning applications, potentially offers such a source of information. The EG data records the value of planning applications and their planned start and finish dates. However, as this data is ex ante and is not correlated with DTI output it is not possible to use this data to describe the volume of actual construction output. Nor is it possible to use the EG planning data to predict DTI construc-tion orders data. Further consideration of the issues raised reveal that it is not practically possible to develop a consistent predictive model of construction output using construction statistics gathered at different stages in the development process.

Description of Enterococcus canis sp nov from dogs and reclassification of Enterococcus porcinus Teixeira et al. 2001 as a junior synonym of Enterococcus villorum Vancanneyt et al. 2001

Strains from anal swabs and chronic otitis externa in dogs were shown to be phylogenetically related to the Enterococcus faecium species group. They shared a number of phenotypic characteristics with these species, but they could be easily differentiated by biochemical reactions. In addition, the canine strains were unusual in their nearly complete failure to grow on sodium azide-containing enterococci-selective media and in their Voges-Proskauer reactions (usually negative). By using 16S rRNA sequencing and DNA-DNA hybridization of representative strains, as well as tDNA interspacer gene PCR and SDS-PAGE of whole-cell proteins, the group of canine strains was shown to constitute a novel enterococcal species. The name Enterococcus canis sp. nov. is proposed for this species, with LMG 12316(T) (= CCUG 46666(T)) as the type strain. Concurrently, the taxonomic situation and nomenclatural position of Enterococcus porcinus were investigated. As no phenotypic or genotypic differences were found between this species and Enterococcus villorum, the name E. porcinus is considered to be a junior synonym of E. villorum.

Posttraumatic stress symptoms in London school children following September 11, 2001: an exploratory investigation of peri-traumatic reactions and intrusive imagery

Threatening intrusive images are central to posttraumatic stress disorder. It has been suggested that intrusive imagery in the context of a sense of threat leads to the development and persistence of posttraumatic stress symptoms. This study investigates London school children's (N = 76; age 10-11 years) self-reported posttraumatic stress symptoms in response to viewing the attacks of September 11, 2001 on television. Assessments were made at two time points. A minority of participants reported moderate-severe symptoms with functional impairment at 2 months (14.5%) and 6 months (9.2%) after viewing the September 11events. After controlling for symptom stability, persistent symptoms were associated with peri-traumatic factors, notably perceiving that one's life was in danger. The combined effect of intrusive imagery and peri-traumatic life threat was associated with symptom persistence. Assessments of intrusive image content via checklist and free-report indicated that the images were directly related to September 11 and were fairly stable over time. Implications for treating children's intrusive images following stressful events are explored. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.