Frost-Free Record Reconstruction for Eastern Massachusetts, 1733-1980

A reconstruction methodology utilizing such varied documents as diaries, agricultural journals, U.S. Weather Bureau killing frost records and instrumental records is discussed. A resultant 248-year frost record for eastern Massachusetts exhibits marked variations in the length of the growing season, that occur on a time scale of approximately 70 years. There is an apparent systematic long-term relationship between the timing of spring and fall killing frosts and the last 100 years of record reveals a decline in year-to-year variability.

The Use of Ships' Protests for Reconstruction of Synoptic-Scale Weather and Tropical Storm Identification in the Late Eighteenth Century

Ships’ protests have been used for centuries as legal documents to record and detail damages and indemnify Captains from fault. We use them in this article, along with data extracted through forensic synoptic analysis (McNally, 1994, 2004) to identify a tropical or subtropical system in the North Atlantic Ocean in 1785. They are shown to be viable sources of meteorological information. By comparing a damaging storm in New England in 1996, which included an offshore tropical system, with one reconstructed in 1785, we demonstrate that the tropical system identified in a ship’s protest played a significant role in the 1785 storm. With both forensic reconstruction and anecdotal evidence, we are able to assess that these storms are remarkably identical. The recurrence rate calculated in previous studies of the 1996 storm is 400–500 years. We suggest that reconstruction of additional years in the 1700s would provide the basis for a reanalysis of recurrence rates, with implications for future insurance and reinsurance rates. The application of the methodology to this new data source can also be used for extension of the hurricane database in the North Atlantic basin, and elsewhere, much further back into history than is currently available.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

NGRIP CH4 concentration from 120 to 10 kyr before present and its relation to a δ15N temperature reconstruction from the same ice core

During the last glacial cycle, Greenland temperature showed many rapid temperature variations, the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. The past atmospheric methane concentration closely followed these temperature variations, which implies that the warmings recorded in Greenland were probably hemispheric in extent. Here we substantially extend and complete the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) methane record from the Preboreal Holocene (PB) back to the end of the last interglacial period with a mean time resolution of 54 yr. We relate the amplitudes of the methane increases associated with DO events to the amplitudes of the local Greenland NGRIP temperature increases derived from stable nitrogen isotope (δ15N) measurements, which have been performed along the same ice core (Kindler et al., 2014). We find the ratio to oscillate between 5 parts per billion (ppb) per °C and 18 ppb °C−1 with the approximate frequency of the precessional cycle. A remarkably high ratio of 25.5 ppb °C−1 is reached during the transition from the Younger Dryas (YD) to the PB. Analysis of the timing of the fast methane and temperature increases reveals significant lags of the methane increases relative to NGRIP temperature for DO events 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 19, and 20. These events generally have small methane increase rates and we hypothesize that the lag is caused by pronounced northward displacement of the source regions from stadial to interstadial. We further show that the relative interpolar concentration difference (rIPD) of methane is about 4.5% for the stadials between DO events 18 and 20, which is in the same order as in the stadials before and after DO event 2 around the Last Glacial Maximum. The rIPD of methane remains relatively stable throughout the full last glacial, with a tendency for elevated values during interstadial compared to stadial periods.

Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the NGRIP ice core

In order to reconstruct the temperature of the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) site, new measurements of δ15N have been performed covering the time period from the beginning of the Holocene to Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) event 8. Together with previously measured and mostly published δ15N data, we present for the first time a NGRIP temperature reconstruction for the whole last glacial period from 10 to 120 kyr b2k (thousand years before 2000 AD) including every DO event based on δ15N isotope measurements combined with a firn densification and heat diffusion model. The detected temperature rises at the onset of DO events range from 5 °C (DO 25) up to 16.5 °C (DO 11) with an uncertainty of ±3 °C. To bring measured and modelled data into agreement, we had to reduce the accumulation rate given by the NGRIP ss09sea06bm timescale in some periods by 30 to 35%, especially during the last glacial maximum. A comparison between reconstructed temperature and δ18Oice data confirms that the isotopic composition of the stadial was strongly influenced by seasonality. We evidence an anticorrelation between the variations of the δ18Oice sensitivity to temperature (referred to as α) and obliquity in agreement with a simple Rayleigh distillation model. Finally, we suggest that α might be influenced by the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet volume.

A new Bayesian approach to the reconstruction of spectral functions

We present a novel approach for the reconstruction of spectra from Euclidean correlator data that makes close contact to modern Bayesian concepts. It is based upon an axiomatically justified dimensionless prior distribution, which in the case of constant prior function m(ω) only imprints smoothness on the reconstructed spectrum. In addition we are able to analytically integrate out the only relevant overall hyper-parameter α in the prior, removing the necessity for Gaussian approximations found e.g. in the Maximum Entropy Method. Using a quasi-Newton minimizer and high-precision arithmetic, we are then able to find the unique global extremum of P[ρ|D] in the full Nω » Nτ dimensional search space. The method actually yields gradually improving reconstruction results if the quality of the supplied input data increases, without introducing artificial peak structures, often encountered in the MEM. To support these statements we present mock data analyses for the case of zero width delta peaks and more realistic scenarios, based on the perturbative Euclidean Wilson Loop as well as the Wilson Line correlator in Coulomb gauge.

Benchmarking the Bayesian reconstruction of the non-perturbative heavy ǪǬ potential

The extraction of the finite temperature heavy quark potential from lattice QCD relies on a spectral analysis of the real-time Wilson loop. Through its position and shape, the lowest lying spectral peak encodes the real and imaginary part of this complex potential. We benchmark this extraction strategy using leading order hard-thermal loop (HTL) calculations. I.e. we analytically calculate the Wilson loop and determine the corresponding spectrum. By fitting its lowest lying peak we obtain the real- and imaginary part and confirm that the knowledge of the lowest peak alone is sufficient for obtaining the potential. We deploy a novel Bayesian approach to the reconstruction of spectral functions to HTL correlators in Euclidean time and observe how well the known spectral function and values for the real and imaginary part are reproduced. Finally we apply the method to quenched lattice QCD data and perform an improved estimate of both real and imaginary part of the non-perturbative heavy ǪǬ potential.

Suitability of Common Collagen Scaffolds for Anterior Cruciate Ligament Repair

Introduction: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are very common; in Germany incidence of ACL ruptures is estimated at 32 per 100 000 in the general population and in the sports community this rate more than doubles. Current gold standard for anterior cruciate lig- ament repair is reconstruction using an autograft [1]. However, this approach has shown some limitations. A new method has been her- alded by the Knee Team at the Bern University Hospital (Inselspital) and the Sonnenhof clinic called Dynamic Intraligamentary Stabilization (DIS), which keeps ACL remnants in place in order to promote biologi- cal healing and makes use of a dynamic screw system [2]. The aim of this study was to investigate the cytocompatibility of collagen patches in combination with DIS to support regeneration of the ACL. The spe- cific hypothesis we tested was whether MSCs would differentiate towards TCs in co-culture. Materials and methods: Primary Tenocytes (TCs) and human bone marrow derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) were harvested from ACL removed during knee prothesis or from bone marrow aspirations (Ethical Permit 187/10). Cells were seeded on two types of three dimensional carriers currently approved for cartilage repair, Novocart (NC, B. Brown) and Chondro-Gide (CG, Geistlich). These scaffolds comprise collagen structures with interconnecting pores originally developed for seeding of chondrocytes in the case of CG. ~40k cells were seeded on punched zylindrical cores of 8 mm in Ø and cultured on CG or NC patches for up to 7 days. The cells were either cultured as TC only, MSC only or co-cultured in a 1:1 mix on the scaffolds and on both sides of culture inserts (PET, high density pore Ø 0.4 mm, BD, Fal- con) with cell-cell contact. We monitored DNA content, GAG and HOP-content, tracked the cells using DIL and DIO fluorescent dyes (Molecular Probes, Life technologies) and confocal laser scanning and SEM microscopy as well as RT-PCR of tenocyte specific markers (i.e. col 1 and 3, TNC, TNMD, SCXA&B, and markers of dedifferentiation ACAN, col2, MMP3, MMP13). Finally, H&E stain was interpreted on cryosections and SEM images of cells on the scaffold were taken. Results: ThecLSMimagesshowedcellproliferationoverthe7dayson both matrices, however, on CG there were much fewer MSCs attached than on NC. SEM images showed a roundish chondrocyte-like pheno- type of cells on CG whereas on NC the phenotype was more teno- cyte-like (Fig. 1). Gene expression of both, MSC and TC seem to confirm a more favorable environment in 3D for both patches rather than monolayer control.