Ilmastonmuutoksen ääri-ilmiöihin liittyvän riskienhallinnan kustannus–hyötyanalyysi osana julkista päätöksentekoa. IRTORISKI-hankkeen loppuraportti.

IRTORISKI-hankkeessa tutkittiin, miten kustannus–hyötyanalyysin käyttöä ilmastonmuutoksen sopeutumissuunnittelussa voitaisiin helpottaa niin, että sitä pystyttäisiin hyödyntämään kustannustehokkaasti sekä ilmastonmuutokseen liittyvien vaarojen priorisoinnissa että ennaltaehkäisevien toimenpiteiden vertailussa. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin esimerkkitapauksina jokitulvaa ja rankkasateiden aiheuttamaa tulvaa kaupunkiolosuhteissa. Tapahtumapuuanalyysia laajennettiin siten, että siitä käyvät ilmi sekä suorat vahingot että lopulliset makrotaloudelliset vaikutukset. Arviot suorista taloudellisista vahingoista perustuivat aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin, kun taas makrotaloudellisia vaikutuksia simuloitiin yleisen tasapainon mallin avulla. Tapaustutkimusten valinnasta, tapahtumapuun käytöstä, sen laajennusosasta sekä lasketuista makrotaloudellisista vaikutuksista keskusteltiin sidosryhmien edustajien kanssa kolmessa asiantuntijaistunnossa.

The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Categorical Meteorological Products: Evaluation and Analysis

In meteorology, observations and forecasts of a wide range of phenomena for example, snow, clouds, hail, fog, and tornados can be categorical, that is, they can only have discrete values (e.g., "snow" and "no snow"). Concentrating on satellite-based snow and cloud analyses, this thesis explores methods that have been developed for evaluation of categorical products and analyses. Different algorithms for satellite products generate different results; sometimes the differences are subtle, sometimes all too visible. In addition to differences between algorithms, the satellite products are influenced by physical processes and conditions, such as diurnal and seasonal variation in solar radiation, topography, and land use. The analysis of satellite-based snow cover analyses from NOAA, NASA, and EUMETSAT, and snow analyses for numerical weather prediction models from FMI and ECMWF was complicated by the fact that we did not have the true knowledge of snow extent, and we were forced simply to measure the agreement between different products. The Sammon mapping, a multidimensional scaling method, was then used to visualize the differences between different products. The trustworthiness of the results for cloud analyses [EUMETSAT Meteorological Products Extraction Facility cloud mask (MPEF), together with the Nowcasting Satellite Application Facility (SAFNWC) cloud masks provided by Météo-France (SAFNWC/MSG) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SAFNWC/PPS)] compared with ceilometers of the Helsinki Testbed was estimated by constructing confidence intervals (CIs). Bootstrapping, a statistical resampling method, was used to construct CIs, especially in the presence of spatial and temporal correlation. The reference data for validation are constantly in short supply. In general, the needs of a particular project drive the requirements for evaluation, for example, for the accuracy and the timeliness of the particular data and methods. In this vein, we discuss tentatively how data provided by general public, e.g., photos shared on the Internet photo-sharing service Flickr, can be used as a new source for validation. Results show that they are of reasonable quality and their use for case studies can be warmly recommended. Last, the use of cluster analysis on meteorological in-situ measurements was explored. The Autoclass algorithm was used to construct compact representations of synoptic conditions of fog at Finnish airports.

Thunderstorm climatology and lightning location applications in northern Europe

Thunderstorm is a dangerous electrical phenomena in the atmosphere. Thundercloud is formed when thermal energy is transported rapidly upwards in convective updraughts. Electrification occurs in the collisions of cloud particles in the strong updraught. When the amount of charge in the cloud is large enough, electrical breakdown, better known as a flash, occurs. Lightning location is nowadays an essential tool for the detection of severe weather. Located flashes indicate in real time the movement of hazardous areas and the intensity of lightning activity. Also, an estimate for the flash peak current can be determined. The observations can be used in damage surveys. The most simple way to represent lightning data is to plot the locations on a map, but the data can be processed in more complex end-products and exploited in data fusion. Lightning data serves as an important tool also in the research of lightning-related phenomena, such as Transient Luminous Events. Most of the global thunderstorms occur in areas with plenty of heat, moisture and tropospheric instability, for example in the tropical land areas. In higher latitudes like in Finland, the thunderstorm season is practically restricted to the summer season. Particular feature of the high-latitude climatology is the large annual variation, which regards also thunderstorms. Knowing the performance of any measuring device is important because it affects the accuracy of the end-products. In lightning location systems, the detection efficiency means the ratio between located and actually occurred flashes. Because in practice it is impossible to know the true number of actually occurred flashes, the detection efficiency has to be esimated with theoretical methods.

Atmospheric boundary-layer across Hadley and Ferrel cells over the Indian Ocean

A Southern Ocean Pilot cruise covering the latitudes from 10 degrees N to 56 degrees S in the open Indian Ocean was carried out during January February 2004. Surface and upper air data collected during this cruise are reported here. It is shown that the broad features of the atmosphere, in particular that of temperature, follow the tropical and mid-latitude weather expected during January February in this region. However, the atmospheric boundary-layer shows large variations, both in its height and structure between tropics and high latitudes. Strong influence of the surface heat flux on boundary layer structure is clearly seen. Humidity field reveals several local maxima and minima, suggesting a laminated atmosphere with air from different sources moving almost unmixed in adjacent layers.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.

Timotein (Phleum pratense ssp. pratense L.) alkuperän vaikutus kylmänkestävyyteen, vernalisaatiovaatimukseen sekä kasvuun ja kehitykseen

Nurmiheinien merkitys maailmanlaajuisesti on merkittävä, sillä noin 69 % maapallon peltopinta-alasta on pysyvää laidunmaata tai niittyä. Suomessa nurmien osuus on noin 29 %, ja tuotanto perustuu pääosin intensiiviseen säilörehuntuotantoon. Yleisin nurmiheinälaji Suomessa on timotei (Phleum pratense ssp. pratense L.). Timotei on talvenkestävä ja soveltuu siksi pohjoisiin kasvuoloihin. Timoteilajikkeita jalostettaessa pohjoista alkuperää olevia vanhempaislinjoja käytetään hyvän talvenkestävyyden varmistamiseksi, eteläisiä tavoiteltaessa nopeaa kasvurytmiä. Ilmaston muutoksen ennustetaan lisäävän erilaisia äärioloja kuten myrskyjä ja sateita. Vuorokauden keskilämpötila nousee ja kasvukausi pidentyy. Lisäksi talvet muuttuvat sateisemmiksi. Muutokset näkyvät erityisesti pohjoisissa kasvuympäristöissä. Tutkimuksessa haluttiinkin selvittää eri alkuperää edustavien timoteilajikkeiden ja linjojen kylmänkestävyyttä, kasvu-, ja kehitysnopeutta sekä vernalisaation vaikutusta. Lisäksi tutkittiin syysviljojen vernalisaatiovasteen mittaamiseen käytettyjen menetelmien soveltuvuutta nurmille. Tutkimukseen kuului kaksivuotinen peltokoe sekä kasvatuskaappikoe. Vernalisaatio nopeutti timotein kasvua ja kehitystä. Tutkimuksen perusteella eteläistä alkuperää olevilla lajikkeilla kasvu- ja kukintavalmius oli olemassa ilman vernalisaatiota. Pohjoisilla lajikkeilla oli suurempi vernalisaatiovaste ja niiden kukkiminen ja kasvu nopeutui vernalisaation myötä. Vernalisaatiolla oli vaikutusta myös kasvuston rakenteeseen. Generatiivisten versojen määrä lisääntyi vernalisaation myötä, kun taas vegetatiivisten versojen määrä väheni. Kylmänkestävyys oli tutkimuksen perusteella riippuvainen syksyn karaistumisjakson pituudesta sekä jakson lämpösummasta (FH-COLD). Korkea keskilämpötila ja lyhyt karaistumisjakso heikensivät kylmänkestävyyttä. Vastaavasti karaistumiskauden lämpötilan ollessa välillä 0 °C:ta ja + 5 °C:ta ja jakson pituuden kasvaessa kylmänkestävyys lisääntyi. Tutkimuksen perusteella vernalisaatiolla oli selvä vaikutus timotein kasvuun ja kehitykseen. Pohjoista alkuperää olevat timoteit reagoivat vernalisaatioon eteläisiä enemmän. Osa pohjoisista linjoista vaati vernalisaation generatiivisten versojen muodostumiseen. Syysviljojen vernalisaatiovasteen mittausmenetelmät soveltuvat osin myös puhtaiden timoteilajikkeiden vernalisaation seurantaan.

The Radiation, snow characteristics and albedo at summit (RASCALS) expedition report

The RASCALS expedition spent over three weeks at the Summit camp research station near the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet during polar summer 2010. During this time, detailed measurements of the physical and optical properties of Arctic perennial snow were carried out concurrently with snow albedo and reflectance measurements. Favorable weather conditions during the campaign enabled the collection of a large dataset on Arctic snow albedo and associated quantities for use in developing and validating remote sensing algorithms for snow albedo using satellites. This report provides a description of the measurements and conditions during the campaign. RASCALS-retkikunnan tehtävä oli tutkia Grönlannin mannerjäätikön lumen fysikaalisia ja optisia ominaisuuksia sekä Auringon valon vuorovaikutusta lumen kanssa. Retikunta vietti hieman yli kolme viikkoa mannerjäätikön keskellä sijaitsevalla Summit Camp-tutkimusasemalla tehden mittauksia. Sääolot suosivat kampanjaa, jonka seurauksena onnistuttiin keräämään laaja ja monipuolinen tietoaineisto mannerjäätikön lumen pintakerroksesta ja eritoten lumen heijastavuuden (albedon)käyttäytymisestä. Aineisto on hyödyllinen kehitettäessä ja varmennettaessa lumen albedon kaukokartoitusmenetelmiä satelliiteilla.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

Polarimetric Measurements in a Severe Hailstorm

This study explores the utility of polarimetric measurements for discriminating between hydrometeor types with the emphasis on (a) hail detection and discrimination of its size, (b) measurement of heavy precipitation, (c) identification and quantification of mixed-phase hydrometeors, and (d) discrimination of ice forms. In particular, we examine the specific differential phase, the backscatter differential phase, the correlation coefficient between vertically and horizontally polarized waves, and the differential reflectivity, collected from a storm at close range. Three range–height cross sections are analyzed together with complementary data from a prototype WSR-88D radar. The case is interesting because it demonstrates the complementary nature of these polarimetric measurands. Self-consistency among them allows qualitative and some quantitative discrimination between hydrometeors.

Helsingin lämpösaareke ajallisena ja paikallisena ilmiönä

The urban heat island phenomenon is the most well-known all-year-round urban climate phenomenon. It occurs in summer during the daytime due to the short-wave radiation from the sun and in wintertime, through anthropogenic heat production. In summertime, the properties of the fabric of city buildings determine how much energy is stored, conducted and transmitted through the material. During night-time, when there is no incoming short-wave radiation, all fabrics of the city release the energy in form of heat back to the urban atmosphere. In wintertime anthropogenic heating of buildings and traffic deliver energy into the urban atmosphere. The initial focus of Helsinki urban heat island was on the description of the intensity of the urban heat island (Fogelberg 1973, Alestalo 1975). In this project our goal was to carry out as many measurements as possible over a large area of Helsinki to give a long term estimate of the Helsinki urban heat island. Helsinki is a city with 550 000 inhabitants and located on the north shore of Finnish Bay of the Baltic Sea. Initially, comparison studies against long-term weather station records showed that our regular, but weekly, sampling of observations adequately describe the Helsinki urban heat island. The project covered an entire seasonal cycle over the 12 months from July 2009 to June 2010. The measurements were conducted using a moving platform following microclimatological traditions. Tuesday was selected as the measuring day because it was the only weekday during the one year time span without any public holidays. Once a week, two set of measurements, in total 104, were conducted in the heterogeneous temperature conditions of Helsinki city centre. In the more homogeneous suburban areas, one set of measurements was taken every second week, to give a total of 52.The first set of measurements took place before noon, and the second 12 hours, just prior to midnight. Helsinki Kaisaniemi weather station was chosen as the reference station. This weather station is located in a large park in the city centre of Helsinki. Along the measurement route, 336 fixed points were established, and the monthly air temperature differences to Kaisaniemi were calculated to produce monthly and annual maps. The monthly air temperature differences were interpolated 21.1 km by 18.1 km horizontal grid with 100 metre resolution residual kriging method. The following independent variables for the kriging interpolation method were used: topographical height, portion of sea area, portion of trees, fraction of built-up and not built-up area, volumes of buildings, and population density. The annual mean air temperature difference gives the best representation of the Helsinki urban heat island effect- Due to natural variability of weather conditions during the measurement campaign care must be taken when interpretation the results for the monthly values. The main results of this urban heat island research project are: a) The city centre of Helsinki is warmer than its surroundings, both on a monthly main basis, and for the annual mean, however, there are only a few grid points, 46 out of 38 191, which display a temperature difference of more than 1K. b) If the monthly spatial variation is air temperature differences is small, then usually the temperature difference between the city and the surroundings is also small. c) Isolated large buildings and suburban centres create their own individual heat island. d) The topographical influence on air temperature can generally be neglected for the monthly mean, but can be strong under certain weather conditions.

Pilottitutkimus apteekkien yksilöllisestä tupakoinninvieroituspalvelusta

Apteekkien yksilöllinen tupakoinninvieroituspalvelu on tupakoinnin lopettamiseen motivoituneille asiakkaille tarkoitettu maksullinen erikoispalvelu, joka sisältää 4–6 tapaamista vieroitusohjaajana toimivan farmaseutin tai proviisorin kanssa. Palvelu sisältää asiakkaalle räätälöityä neuvontaa, henkilökohtaisen vieroitussuunnitelman sekä seurantajakson. Apteekkien yksilöllinen tupakoinninvieroituspalvelu perustuu Isossa-Britanniassa kehitettyyn palvelumalliin, ja sitä on tarjottu suomalaisissa apteekeissa vuodesta 2006. Tämä pro gradu -tutkielma käsittelee apteekkien yksilöllisen tupakoinninvieroituspalvelun pilottitutkimusta, joka toteutettiin Suomen Apteekkariliiton ja Helsingin yliopiston farmasian tiedekunnan sosiaalifarmasian osaston yhteistyönä ja se kuului osana Hengitysliitto Heli ry:n koordinoimaa tupakasta vieroituksen hankekokonaisuutta. Tässä pro gradu -tutkielmassa tarkastellaan pilottitutkimuksessa saadun asiakasaineiston avulla apteekkien yksilöllisen tupakoinninvieroituspalvelumallin toimivuutta, asiakkaiden kokemuksia palvelusta, asiakkaiden onnistumista tupaakoinnin lopettamisessa sekä asiakkaiden kyvykkyyden tunteen kehittymistä palvelun aikana. Tässä interventiotutkimuksessa oli mukana 14 apteekkia, jotka rekrytoivat yhteensä 36 palveluasiakasta. Ennen asiakkaiden rekrytointia apteekit perehdytettiin palvelun tarjoamiseen. Apteekit tiedottivat pilottitutkimuksesta paikallisen terveydenhuollon lääkäreitä ja muita terveydenhuollon ammattilaisia, jotka voivat ohjata asiakkaita palveluun. Sosiaali- ja terveysministeriön pilottitutkimukselle myöntämä rahoitus mahdollisti asiantuntijapalkkion maksamisen apteekeille ja palvelun tarjoamisen asiakkaille ilmaiseksi tai pientä omakustannusosuutta vastaan. Asiakkaiden tupakoimattomana pysymistä sekä kokemuksia tupakoinninvieroituspalvelusta kartoitettiin kyselylomakkeilla, jotka asiakkaat saivat täytettäväkseen palvelun alussa sekä noin 3 kuukauden kohdalla palvelun alkamisesta. Asiakkaiden taustatiedot kerättiin ensimmäisen tapaamisen yhteydessä erillisille taustatietolomakkeille ja palvelun aikana tehtyjä huomioita niille tarkoitetuille kaavakkeille. Ensimmäisen kyselylomakkeen palauttaneista 28 henkilöstä 20 ja toisen kyselylomakkeen palauttaneista 17 henkilöstä 13 oli pysynyt tupakoimattomana (55,6 % ja 36,1 % kaikista asiakkaista). Kaikki tupakoinnin lopettaneet käyttivät jotakin tupakasta vieroituslääkettä. Tupakoinnin lopettaneilla asiakkailla kyvykkyyden tunne oli keskimääräistä parempi sekä palvelun alussa että koko palvelun ajan. Asiakkaat pitivät palvelua tarpeellisena ja apteekin vieroitusohjaajalta saatua tukea tärkeänä. Asiakkaat kokivat myös palvelun saamisen apteekista tärkeäksi. Noin 32 % ensimmäiseen kyselyyn vastanneista ja 41 % toiseen kyselyyn vastanneista oli valmis maksamaan palvelusta. Heidän ilmoittamansa maksuvalmius oli keskimäärin noin 45 euroa (10–100 euroa). Muusta terveydenhuollosta lähetettiin palveluun vain vähän tai ei lainkaan asiakkaita. Tästä syystä apteekit rekrytoivat asiakkaita myös ilman kontaktia muuhun terveydenhuoltoon. Palvelun 36 asiakkaasta noin 36 % oli pysynyt tupakoimattomana 3 kuukauden kohdalla. Verrokkiryhmä jouduttiin jättämään tutkimuksesta pois verrokkihenkilöiden rekrytoinnin epäonnistuttua. Tulos on kuitenkin vertailukelpoinen kansainvälisiin tutkimuksiin, joissa on saatu vastaavanlaisia tuloksia. Apteekkien yksilöllisestä tupakoinninvieroituspalvelusta saattaa olla hyötyä tupakoinnin lopettamisessa siihen motivoituneille henkilöille ja erityisesti henkilöille, jotka käyttävät lisäksi tupakasta vieroituslääkettä. Asiakkaat kokivat palvelun tärkeäksi ja tarpeelliseksi, mutta heikko maksuvalmius asettaa haasteita palvelun tarjoamiselle apteekeissa. Yhteistyömallia muun terveydenhuollon kanssa tulisi kehittää.

Origin of a trend in ECMWF wind analysis and its objective removal

The suitability of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational wind analysis for the period 1980-1991 for studying interannual variability is examined. The changes in the model and the analysis procedure are shown to give rise to a systematic and significant trend in the large scale circulation features. A new method of removing the systematic errors at all levels is presented using multivariate EOF analysis. Objectively detrended analysis of the three-dimensional wind field agrees well with independent Florida State University (FSU) wind analysis at the surface. It is shown that the interannual variations in the detrended surface analysis agree well in amplitude as well as spatial patterns with those of the FSU analysis. Therefore, the detrended analyses at other levels as well are expected to be useful for studies of variability and predictability at interannual time scales. It is demonstrated that this trend in the wind field is due to the shift in the climatologies from the period 1980-1985 to the period 1986-1991.

Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

Simulation of ENSO-Related Surface Winds in the Tropical Pacific by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Forced by Observed Sea Surface Temperatures

The authors present the simulation of the tropical Pacific surface wind variability by a low-resolution (R15 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels) version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Maryland, general circulation model (GCM) when forced by observed global sea surface temperature. The authors have examined the monthly mean surface winds acid precipitation simulated by the model that was integrated from January 1979 to March 1992. Analyses of the climatological annual cycle and interannual variability over the Pacific are presented. The annual means of the simulated zonal and meridional winds agree well with observations. The only appreciable difference is in the region of strong trade winds where the simulated zonal winds are about 15%-20% weaker than observed, The amplitude of the annual harmonics are weaker than observed over the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone regions. The amplitudes of the interannual variation of the simulated zonal and meridional winds are close to those of the observed variation. The first few dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the simulated, as well as the observed, monthly mean winds are found to contain a targe amount of high-frequency intraseasonal variations, While the statistical properties of the high-frequency modes, such as their amplitude and geographical locations, agree with observations, their detailed time evolution does not. When the data are subjected to a 5-month running-mean filter, the first two dominant EOFs of the simulated winds representing the low-frequency EI Nino-Southern Oscillation fluctuations compare quite well with observations. However, the location of the center of the westerly anomalies associated with the warm episodes is simulated about 15 degrees west of the observed locations. The model simulates well the progress of the westerly anomalies toward the eastern Pacific during the evolution of a warm event. The simulated equatorial wind anomalies are comparable in magnitude to the observed anomalies. An intercomparison of the simulation of the interannual variability by a few other GCMs with comparable resolution is also presented. The success in simulation of the large-scale low-frequency part of the tropical surface winds by the atmospheric GCM seems to be related to the model's ability to simulate the large-scale low-frequency part of the precipitation. Good correspondence between the simulated precipitation and the highly reflective cloud anomalies is seen in the first two EOFs of the 5-month running means. Moreover, the strong correlation found between the simulated precipitation and the simulated winds in the first two principal components indicates the primary role of model precipitation in driving the surface winds. The surface winds simulated by a linear model forced by the GCM-simulated precipitation show good resemblance to the GCM-simulated winds in the equatorial region. This result supports the recent findings that the large-scale part of the tropical surface winds is primarily linear.