Not-for-profits and risk accountability : insuring the third sector

Not for profit organisations face significant challenges in managing organisational risk. In this regard not-for-profits are not unique but they are distinguishable from their 'for-profit' counterparts in that they are less likely to have the resources to find sufficient risk management strategies and plans, are very vunerable to cyclical changes in the insurance market and are not usually in a position to pass on the costs of increased premiums to third parties such as consumers of their services. This article explores the nature and extent of risks faced by the not-for-profit sector; the appropriateness and scope of risk management to reduce and manage the likelihood and incidence of risk; and the types of insurance and options to cover risks that materialise. It concludes with a recommendation for a potential course of action.

Multifractal analysis of geomagnetic storm and solar flare indices and their class dependence

The multifractal properties of two indices of geomagnetic activity, D st (representative of low latitudes) and a p (representative of the global geomagnetic activity), with the solar X-ray brightness, X l , during the period from 1 March 1995 to 17 June 2003 are examined using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The h(q) curves of D st and a p in the MF-DFA are similar to each other, but they are different from that of X l , indicating that the scaling properties of X l are different from those of D st and a p . Hence, one should not predict the magnitude of magnetic storms directly from solar X-ray observations. However, a strong relationship exists between the classes of the solar X-ray irradiance (the classes being chosen to separate solar flares of class X-M, class C, and class B or less, including no flares) in hourly measurements and the geomagnetic disturbances (large to moderate, small, or quiet) seen in D st and a p during the active period. Each time series was converted into a symbolic sequence using three classes. The frequency, yielding the measure representations, of the substrings in the symbolic sequences then characterizes the pattern of space weather events. Using the MF-DFA method and traditional multifractal analysis, we calculate the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations. The τ (q) curves indicate that the measure representations of these three indices are multifractal. On the basis of this three-class clustering, we find that the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations of these three indices are similar to each other for positive values of q. Hence, a positive flare storm class dependence is reflected in the scaling exponents h(q) in the MF-DFA and the multifractal exponents D(q) and τ (q). This finding indicates that the use of the solar flare classes could improve the prediction of the D st classes.

X-Aware Business Process Management

In my last Column this year, I want to draw your attention to some current efforts in the space of BPM research and education that try to move BPM thinking forward into new areas of application. I am subsuming these efforts under the notion of x-aware BPM.

Centrifuging rotary vacuum filter mud at Tully Mill

Disposal of mud and ash, particularly in wet weather conditions, is a significant expense for mills. This paper reports on one part of a process to pelletise mud and ash, aimed at making mud and ash more attractive to growers across entire mill districts. The full process is described in a separate paper. The part described in this paper involves re-constituting mud cake from the filter station at Tully Mill and processing it in a decanter centrifuge. The material produced by re-constituting and centrifuging is drier and made up of separate particles. The material needs to mix easily with boiler ash, and the mixture needs to be fed easily into a flue gas drier to be dried to low moisture. The results achieved with the particular characteristics of Tully Mill rotary vacuum filter cake are presented. It was found that an internal rotor with a 20º beach was not adequate to process re-constituted rotary vacuum filter mud. A rotor with a 10º beach worked much more successfully. A total of four tonnes of centrifuged mud with a moisture content ranging from 60% to 65% was produced. It was found that the torque, flocculant rate and dose rate had a statistically significant effect on the moisture content. Feed rate did not have a noticeable impact on the moisture content by itself but torque had a much larger impact on the moisture content at the low feed rate than at the high feed rate. These results indicated that the moisture content of the mud can most likely be reduced with low feed rate, low flocculant rate, high dose rate and high torque. One issue that is believed to affect the operation of a decanter centrifuge was the large quantity of long bagasse fibres in the rotary vacuum filter mud. It is likely that the long fibres limited the throughput of the centrifuge and the moisture achieved.

An additional step towards modelling the mechanical behaviour of sugar cane bagasse

A better understanding of the behaviour of prepared cane and bagasse, especially the ability to model the mechanical behaviour of bagasse as it is squeezed in a milling unit to extract juice, would help identify how to improve the current milling process; for example to reduce final bagasse moisture. Previous investigations have proven with certainty that juice flow through bagasse obeys Darcy’s permeability law, that the grip of the rough surface of the grooves on the bagasse can be represented by the Mohr- Coulomb failure criterion for soils, and that the internal mechanical behaviour of the bagasse can be represented by critical state behaviour similar to that of sand and clay. Current Finite Element Models (FEM) available in commercial software have adequate permeability models. However, commercial software does not contain an adequate mechanical model for bagasse. Progress has been made in the last ten years towards implementing a mechanical model for bagasse in finite element software code. This paper builds on that progress and carries out a further step towards obtaining an adequate material model. In particular, the prediction of volume change during shearing of normally consolidated final bagasse is addressed.

Simultaneous voltammetric determination of three herbicides in food and water samples with the aid of chemometrics

Differential pulse stripping voltammetry method(DPSV) was applied to the determination of three herbicides, ametryn, cyanatryn, and dimethametryn. It was found that their voltammograms overlapped strongly, and it is difficult to determine these compounds individually from their mixtures. With the aid of chemometrics, classical least squares(CLS), principal component regression(PCR) and partial least squares(PLS), voltammogram resolution and quantitative analysis of the synthetic mixtures of the three compounds were successfully performed. The proposed method was also applied to the analysis of some real samples with satisfactory results.

Why publish?

Anybody who has attempted to publish some aspect of their work in an academic journal will know that it isn’t as easy as it may seem. The amount of preparation required of a manuscript can be quite daunting. Besides actually writing the manuscript, the authors are faced with a number of technical requirements. Each journal has their own formatting requirements, relating not only to section headings and text layout, but also to very small details such as placement of commas in reference lists. Then, if presenting data in the form of figures, this must be formatted so that it can be understood by the readership, and most journals still require that the data be in a format which can be read when printed in black-and-white. Most daunting (and important) of all, for the article to be scientifically valid it must be absolutely true in the representation of the work reported (i.e. all data must be shown unless a strong justification exists for removing data points), and this might cause angst in the mind of the authors when the results aren’t clear or possibly contradict the expected or desired result.