Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re)establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by TCB and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.

Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

Business competition dynamics: agent-based modeling simulations of firms in search of economic performance

A intenção deste trabalho é explorar dinâmicas de competição por meio de “simulação baseada em agentes”. Apoiando-se em um crescente número de estudos no campo da estratégia e teoria das organizações que utilizam métodos de simulação, desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional para simular situações de competição entre empresas e observar a eficiência relativa dos métodos de busca de melhoria de desempenho teorizados. O estudo também explora possíveis explicações para a persistência de desempenho superior ou inferior das empresas, associados às condições de vantagem ou desvantagem competitiva

Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The fi rst is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature.

The internationalization of the cosmetic retail industry: a history of success?

O setor de varejo foi cada vez mais global ao longo das últimas décadas, ilustrando visualmente a globalização dos negócios. Muitos varejistas estão apostando em expandir, as atividades ao nível internacional, a fim de evitar a saturação da atividade no país de origem deles (Alexander, 1990), de aumentar os lucros ou de imitar os concorrentes (Williams, 1992). Portanto, eles tornaram-se competidores globais consideráveis: eles fornecem novos produtos no mercado, além de ser mais influentes na cadeia de abastecimento global (Williams, 1992). Em relação à internacionalização do varejo, a indústria cosmética oferece com exemplos de muitas realizações bem- sucedidas. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o processo de internacionalização de vários varejistas globais, especializados na venda de produtos cosméticos. Mesmo que o campo de internacionalização no varejo já foi no passado o objeto de vários estudos, este trabalho visa a compreender, por meio da utilização de um estudo de caso múltiplo, a estratégia de retalhistas cosméticos que entram nos mercados internacionais. Por meio de um estudo qualitativo, a questão principal que orienta este trabalho será a de compreender se o varejo de cosméticos segue as mesmas estratégias de negócio e estratégias de marketing para se tornar global. O estudo de casos múltiplos foi escolhido a fim de comparar quatro empresas, especializadas na venda de produtos de cosmética, com atividades no exterior. Os resultados claramente exibem diferenças entre os processos de internacionalização, baseado especialmente na nacionalidade das empresas sob analise.

Essays on banking theory and history of financial arrangements

Esta tese contém dois capítulos, cada um lidando com a teoria e a história dos bancos e arranjos financeiros. No capítulo 1, busca-se extender uma economia Diamond-Dybvig com monitoramento imperfeito dos saques antecipados e realizar uma comparação do bem estar social em cada uma das alocações possíveis, como proposto em Presscott and Weinberg(2003). Esse monitoramento imperfeito é implementado a partir da comunicação indireta ( através de um meio de pagamento) entre os agentes e a máquina de depósitos e saques que é um agregado do setor produtivo e financeiro. A extensão consiste em estudar alocações onde uma fração dos agentes pode explorar o monitoramento imperfeito e fraudar a alocação contratada ao consumirem mais cedo além do limite, usando múltiplos meios de pagamento. Com a punição limitada no período de consumo tardio, essa nova alocação pode ser chamada de uma alocação separadora em contraste com as alocações agregadoras onde o agente com habilidade de fraudar é bloqueado por um meio de pagamento imune a fraude, mas custoso, ou por receber consumo futuro suficiente para tornar a fraude desinteressante. A comparação de bem estar na gama de parâmetros escolhida mostra que as alocações separadoras são ótimas para as economias com menor dotação e as agregadoras para as de nível intermediário e as ricas. O capítulo termina com um possível contexto histórico para o modelo, o qual se conecta com a narrativa histórica encontrada no capítulo 2. No capítulo 2 são exploradas as propriedade quantitativas de um sistema de previsão antecedente para crises financeiras, com as váriaveis sendo escolhidas a partir de um arcabouço de ``boom and bust'' descrito mais detalhadamente no apêndice 1. As principais variáveis são: o crescimento real nos preços de imóveis e ações, o diferencial entre os juros dos títulos governamentais de 10 anos e a taxa de 3 meses no mercado inter-bancário e o crescimento nos ativos totais do setor bancário. Essas variáveis produzem uma taxa mais elevada de sinais corretos para as crises bancárias recentes (1984-2008) do que os sistemas de indicadores antecedentes comparáveis. Levar em conta um risco de base crescente ( devido à tendência de acumulação de distorções no sistema de preços relativos em expansões anteriores) também provê informação e eleva o número de sinais corretos em países que não passaram por uma expansão creditícia e nos preços de ativos tão vigorosa.

The history of the introduction of the giant river prawn, Macrobrachium cf. rosenbergii (Decapoda, Palaemonidae), in Brazil: new insights from molecular data

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of different temperatures on the life history of Evania appendigaster L. (Hymenoptera: Evaniidae), a solitary oothecal parasitoid of Periplaneta americana L. (Dictyoptera: Blattidae)

The influence of temperatures on the life parameters of the solitary oothecal parasitoid Evania appendigaster, was investigated in the laboratory. Parasitized oothecae of Periplaneta americana were left to develop under seven constant temperatures: 15, 17, 20, 25, 30, 35, and 40 degrees C. At the end, we found that: (i) E. appendigaster was able to complete development within the temperature range of 17-34 degrees C; (ii) mean adult longevity decreased as temperature increased, with the temperature of 40 degrees C being fatal in a matter of hours; (iii) males lived longer than females between 15 and 30 degrees C; (iv) adult emergence rate was the highest at 25 degrees C, and (v) no wasps emerged at 15 or 40 degrees C. Non-emerged oothecae contained either unhatched eggs or dead larvae. We determined the theoretical lower developmental threshold and thermal constant for the complete development as 12.9 degrees C and 584.8 day-degrees for males, and 13.1 degrees C and 588.2 day-degrees for females, respectively. A good balance between faster development, maximum adult longevity and good egg viability was obtained between 25-30 degrees C, and that would be the best temperature range for rearing E. appendigaster. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogeography and Pleistocene demographic history of the endangered marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) from the Rio de la Plata Basin

The marsh deer is the largest neotropical cervid with morphological and ecological adaptations to wetlands and riparian habitats. Historically, this now endangered species occupied habitats along the major river basins in South America, ranging from southern Amazonia into northern Argentina to the Parana river delta. This particularly close association with wetlands makes marsh deer an excellent species for studying the effects of Pleistocene climatic changes on their demographic and phylogeographic patterns. We examined mitochondrial DNA variation in 127 marsh deer from 4 areas distributed throughout the Rio de]a Plata basin. We found 17 haplotypes in marsh deer from Brazil, Bolivia and Argentina that differed by 1-8 substitutions in a 601 bp fragment of mitochondrial control region sequence, and 486 bp of cytochrome b revealed only 3 variable sites that defined 4 haplotypes. Phylogeny and distribution of control region haplotypes suggest that populations close to the Pantanal area in central Brazil underwent a rapid population expansion and that this occurred approximately 28,000-25,000 years BP. Paleoclimatic data from this period suggests that there was a dramatic increase for precipitation in the medium latitudes in South America and these conditions may have fostered marsh deer's population growth.

The surprising evolutionary history of South American deer

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Subtle Cognitive Deficits in Adults With a Previous History of Sydenham's Chorea During Childhood

Objective. To evaluate the neuropsychological profile and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of adults who had rheumatic fever (RF) during childhood with and without Sydenham's chorea (SC).Methods. Three groups of patients were assessed: adults who had RF with SC during childhood (SC group), adults who had RF without SC during childhood (RF group), and controls (CT group). A range of neuropsychological tests looked at several cognitive domains. HRQOL was measured through a Brazilian version of the Short Form 36 (SF-36) health survey.Results. Twenty patients were included in the SC group, 23 patients in the RF group, and 19 patients in the CT group. The 3 groups were homogeneous regarding sex (P = 0.078), age (P = 0.799), schooling (P = 0.600), socioeconomic status (P = 0.138), intelligence quotient (P = 0.329), and scores for anxiety (P = 0.156) and depression (P = 0.076). The SC group demonstrated inferior performance in tests that assessed attention (Digit Span Forward [ P = 0.005], Corsi Block Forward [ P = 0.014]), speeded information processing (Trail Making A [ P = 0.009], Symbol Search [ P = 0.042]), and executive functions and working memory (Corsi Block Backward [ P = 0.028]), and higher scores for attention deficit scale (P = 0.030) when compared with the RF and CT groups. They also showed a tendency toward lower scores in the physical aspects, vitality, emotional aspects, and mental health domains of the SF-36. The RF group had a lower score for the general health domain than the CT group (P = 0.030).Conclusion. Patients who had SC during childhood can exhibit inferior performance in tasks that evaluate attention, speeded information processing, executive functions, and working memory in adult life. Therefore, there is indirect evidence of the persistence of dysfunction in cerebral circuits involved with the basal ganglia. They also presented a worse self-evaluation in HRQOL that was not related to cognitive impairments.