The decline in activities of daily living at discharge (DADLD) index : stratifying patients at lower and higher risk

Background: Decreased ability to perform Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) during hospitalisation has negative consequences for patients and health service delivery. Objective: To develop an Index to stratify patients at lower and higher risk of a significant decline in ability to perform ADLs at discharge. Design: Prospective two cohort study comprising a derivation (n=389; mean age 82.3 years; SD� 7.1) and a validation cohort (n=153; mean age 81.5 years; SD� 6.1). Patients and setting: General medical patients aged = 70 years admitted to three university-affiliated acute care hospitals in Brisbane, Australia. Measurement and main results: The short ADL Scale was used to identify a significant decline in ability to perform ADLs from premorbid to discharge. In the derivation cohort, 77 patients (19.8%) experienced a significant decline. Four significant factors were identified for patients independent at baseline: 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with bathing'; 'difficulty understanding others (frequently or all the time)'; 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with performing housework'; a 'history of experiencing at least one fall in the previous 90 days prior to hospital admission' in addition to 'independent at baseline', which was protective against decline at discharge. 'Difficulty understanding others (frequently or all the time)' and 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with performing housework' were also predictors for patients dependent in ADLs at baseline. Sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV), and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of the DADLD dichotomised risk scores were: 83.1% (95% CI 72.8; 90.7); 60.5% (95% CI 54.8; 65.9); 34.2% (95% CI 27.5; 41.5); 93.5% (95% CI 89.2; 96.5). In the validation cohort, 47 patients (30.7%) experienced a significant decline. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of the DADLD were: 78.7% (95% CI 64.3; 89.3); 69.8% (95% CI 60.1, 78.3); 53.6% (95% CI 41.2; 65.7); 88.1% (95% CI 79.2; 94.1). Conclusions: The DADLD Index is a useful tool for identifying patients at higher risk of decline in ability to perform ADLs at discharge.

Citation success over time : theory or empirics?

This study investigates the citation patterns of theoretical and empirical papers published in a top economics journal, namely American Economic Review, over a period of almost 30 years, while also exploring the determinants of citation success. The results indicate that empirical papers attract more citation success than theoretical studies. However, the pattern over time is very similar. Moreover, among empirical papers it appears that the cross-country studies are more successful than single country studies focusing on North America data or other regions.

Interobserver variability of radiation therapists aligning to fiducial markers for prostate radiation therapy

As the use of fiducial markers (FMs) for the localisation of the prostate during external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) has become part of routine practice, radiation therapists (RTs) have become increasingly responsible for online image interpretation. The aim of this investigation was to quantify the limits of agreement (LoA) between RTs when localising to FMs with orthogonal kilovoltage (kV) imaging. Methods Six patients receiving prostate EBRT utilising FMs were included in this study. Treatment localisation was performed using kV imaging prior to each fraction. Online stereoscopic assessment of FMs, performed by the treating RTs, was compared with the offline assessment by three RTs. Observer agreement was determined by pairwise Bland-Altman analysis. Results Stereoscopic analysis of 225 image pairs was performed online at the time of treatment, and offline by three RT observers. Eighteen pairwise Bland-Altman analyses were completed to assess the level of agreement between observers. Localisation by RTs was found to be within clinically acceptable 95% LoAs. Conclusions Small differences between RTs, in both the online and offline setting, were found to be within clinically acceptable limits. RTs were able to make consistent and reliable judgements when matching FMs on planar kV imaging.

Breast cancer detection from thermal images using bispectral invariant features

Highly sensitive infrared (IR) cameras provide high-resolution diagnostic images of the temperature and vascular changes of breasts. These images can be processed to emphasize hot spots that exhibit early and subtle changes owing to pathology. The resulting images show clusters that appear random in shape and spatial distribution but carry class dependent information in shape and texture. Automated pattern recognition techniques are challenged because of changes in location, size and orientation of these clusters. Higher order spectral invariant features provide robustness to such transformations and are suited for texture and shape dependent information extraction from noisy images. In this work, the effectiveness of bispectral invariant features in diagnostic classification of breast thermal images into malignant, benign and normal classes is evaluated and a phase-only variant of these features is proposed. High resolution IR images of breasts, captured with measuring accuracy of ±0.4% (full scale) and temperature resolution of 0.1 °C black body, depicting malignant, benign and normal pathologies are used in this study. Breast images are registered using their lower boundaries, automatically extracted using landmark points whose locations are learned during training. Boundaries are extracted using Canny edge detection and elimination of inner edges. Breast images are then segmented using fuzzy c-means clustering and the hottest regions are selected for feature extraction. Bispectral invariant features are extracted from Radon projections of these images. An Adaboost classifier is used to select and fuse the best features during training and then classify unseen test images into malignant, benign and normal classes. A data set comprising 9 malignant, 12 benign and 11 normal cases is used for evaluation of performance. Malignant cases are detected with 95% accuracy. A variant of the features using the normalized bispectrum, which discards all magnitude information, is shown to perform better for classification between benign and normal cases, with 83% accuracy compared to 66% for the original.

A cross-sectional analysis of patterns of obesity in a cohort of working nurses and midwives in Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom

Objective The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of overweight and obesity and the association with demographic, reproductive work variables in a representative cohort of working nurses and midwives. Design A cross sectional study of self reported survey data. Settings Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Methods Measurement outcomes included BMI categories, demographic (age, gender, marital status, ethnicity), reproductive (parity, number of births, mother's age at first birth, birth type and menopausal status) and workforce (registration council, employment type and principal specialty) variables. Participants 4996 respondents to the Nurses and Midwives e-Cohort study who were currently registered and working in nursing or midwifery in Australia (n=3144), New Zealand (n=778) or the United Kingdom (n=1074). Results Amongst the sample 61.87% were outside the healthy weight range and across all three jurisdictions the prevalence of obesity in nurses and midwives exceeded rates in the source populations by 1.73% up to 3.74%. Being overweight or obese was significantly associated with increasing age (35–44 yrs aOR 1.71, 95% CI 1.41–2.08; 45–55 yrs aOR 1.90, 95%CI 1.56–2.31; 55–64 aOR 2.22, 95% CI 1.71–2.88), and male gender (aOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.15–1.87). Primiparous nurses and midwives were more likely to be overweight or obese (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.06–1.76) as were those who had reached menopause (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.11–1.69). Nurses and midwives in part-time or casual employment had significantly reduced risk of being overweight or obese, (aOR 0.81, 95% CI 0.70–0.94 and aOR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59–0.96 respectively), whilst working in aged carried increased risk (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.04–1.80). Conclusion Nurses and midwives in this study have higher prevalence of obesity and overweight than the general population and those who are older, male, or female primiparous and menopausal have significantly higher risk of overweight or obesity as do those working fulltime, or in aged care. The consequences of overweight and obesity in this occupational group may impact on their workforce participation, their management of overweight and obese patients in their care as well as influencing their individual health behaviours and risks of occupational injury and chronic disease.

One-stop government portals : transformation or navigation?

E-government is seen as a promising approach for governments to improve their service towards citizens and become more cost-efficient in service delivery. This is often combined with one-stop government, which is a citizen-oriented approach stressing integrated provision of services from multiple departments via a single access point, the one-stop government portal. While the portal concept is gaining prominence in practice, there is little know about its status in academic literature. This hinders academics in building an accumulated body of knowledge around the concept and makes it hard for practitioners to access relevant academic insights on the topic. The objective of this study is to identify and understand the key themes of the one-stop government portal concept in academic, e-government research. A holistic analysis is provided by addressing different viewpoints: social-political, legal, organizational, user, security, service, data & information, and technical. As overall finding we conclude that there are two different approaches: a more pragmatic approach focuses on quick wins in particular related to usability and navigation and a more ambitious, transformational approach having far reaching social-political, legal, organizational implications.

Sitting-time, physical activity and depressive symptoms in mid-aged women

Background: Associations between sitting-time and physical activity (PA) with depression are unclear. Purpose: To examine concurrent and prospective associations between both sitting-time and PA with prevalent depressive symptoms in mid-aged Australian women. Methods: Data were from 8,950 women, aged 50-55 years in 2001, who completed mail surveys in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression questionnaire. Associations between sitting-time (≤4, >4-7, >7 hrs/day) and PA (none, some, meeting guidelines) with depressive symptoms (symptoms/no symptoms) were examined in 2011 in concurrent and lagged mixed effect logistic modeling. Both main effects and interaction models were developed. Results: In main effects modeling, women who sat >7 hrs/day (OR 1.47, 95%CI 1.29-1.67) and women who did no PA (OR 1.99, 95%CI 1.75-2.27) were more likely to have depressive symptoms than women who sat ≤4 hrs/day and who met PA guidelines, respectively. In interaction modeling, the likelihood of depressive symptoms in women who sat >7 hrs/day and did no PA was triple that of women who sat ≤4 hrs/day and met PA guidelines (OR 2.96, 95%CI 2.37-3.69). In prospective main effects and interaction modeling, sitting-time was not associated with depressive symptoms, but women who did no PA were more likely than those who met PA guidelines to have future depressive symptoms (OR 1.26, 95%CI 1.08-1.47). Conclusions: Increasing PA to a level commensurate with PA guidelines can alleviate current depression symptoms and prevent future symptoms in mid-aged women. Reducing sitting-time may ameliorate current symptoms.

Vitamin D status and skin cancer risk independent of time outdoors : 11-year prospective study in and Australian community

Vitamin D may have anti-skin cancer effects, but population-based evidence is lacking. We therefore assessed associations between vitamin D status and skin cancer risk in an Australian subtropical community. We analyzed prospective skin cancer incidence for 11 years following baseline assessment of serum 25(OH)-vitamin D in 1,191 adults (average age 54 years) and used multivariable logistic regression analysis to adjust risk estimates for age, sex, detailed assessments of usual time spent outdoors, phenotypic characteristics, and other possible confounders. Participants with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) versus those below 75 nmol  l(-1) more often developed basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR)=1.51 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-2.07, P=0.01) and melanoma (OR=2.71 (95% CI: 0.98-7.48, P=0.05)). Squamous cell carcinoma incidence tended to be lower in persons with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) compared with those below 75 nmol  l(-1) (OR=0.67 (95% CI: 0.44-1.03, P=0.07)). Vitamin D status was not associated with skin cancer incidence when participants were classified as above or below 50 nmol  l(-1) 25(OH)-vitamin D. Our findings do not indicate that the carcinogenicity of high sun exposure can be counteracted by high vitamin D status. High sun exposure is to be avoided as a means to achieve high vitamin D status.

Predicting vitamin D deficiency in older Australian adults

OBJECTIVE There has been a dramatic increase in vitamin D testing in Australia in recent years, prompting calls for targeted testing. We sought to develop a model to identify people most at risk of vitamin D deficiency. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS This is a cross-sectional study of 644 60- to 84-year-old participants, 95% of whom were Caucasian, who took part in a pilot randomized controlled trial of vitamin D supplementation. MEASUREMENTS Baseline 25(OH)D was measured using the Diasorin Liaison platform. Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency were defined using 50 and 25 nmol/l as cut-points, respectively. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors. We used multivariate logistic regression to predict low vitamin D and calculated the net benefit of using the model compared with 'test-all' and 'test-none' strategies. RESULTS The mean serum 25(OH)D was 42 (SD 14) nmol/1. Seventy-five per cent of participants were vitamin D insufficient and 10% deficient. Serum 25(OH)D was positively correlated with time outdoors, physical activity, vitamin D intake and ambient UVR, and inversely correlated with age, BMI and poor self-reported health status. These predictors explained approximately 21% of the variance in serum 25(OH)D. The area under the ROC curve predicting vitamin D deficiency was 0·82. Net benefit for the prediction model was higher than that for the 'test-all' strategy at all probability thresholds and higher than the 'test-none' strategy for probabilities up to 60%. CONCLUSION Our model could predict vitamin D deficiency with reasonable accuracy, but it needs to be validated in other populations before being implemented.

The legacy of Ian Hunter's work on literature education and the history of reading practices : some preliminary remarks

Ian Hunter's early work on the history of literature education and the emergence of English as school subject issued a bold challenge to traditional accounts that have in the main focused on English either as knowledge of a particular field or as ideology. The alternative proposal put forward by Hunter and supported by detailed historical analysis is that English exists as a series of historically contingent techniques and practices for shaping the self-managing capacities of children. The challenge for the field is to advance this historical work and to examine possible implications for English teaching.

Plasma cytokine changes in relation to exercise intensity and muscle damage

The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of exercise intensity and exercise-induced muscle damage on changes in anti-inflammatory cytokines and other inflammatory mediators. Nine well-trained male runners completed three different exercise trials on separate occasions: (1) level treadmill running at 60% VO2max (moderate-intensity trial) for 60 min; (2) level treadmill running at 85% VO2max (high-intensity trial) for 60 min; (3) downhill treadmill running (-10% gradient) at 60% VO2max (downhill running trial) for 45 min. Blood was sampled before, immediately after and 1 h after exercise. Plasma was analyzed for interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra), IL-4, IL-5, IL-10, IL-12p40, IL-13, monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1), prostaglandin E(2), leukotriene B(4) and heat shock protein 70 (HSP70). The plasma concentrations of IL-1ra, IL-12p40, MCP-1 and HSP70 increased significantly (P<0.05) after all three trials. Plasma prostaglandin E(2) concentration increased significantly after the downhill running and high-intensity trials, while plasma IL-10 concentration increased significantly only after the high-intensity trial. IL-4 and leukotriene B(4) did not increase significantly after exercise. Plasma IL-1ra and IL-10 concentrations were significantly higher (P<0.05) after the high-intensity trial than after both the moderate-intensity and downhill running trials. Therefore, following exercise up to 1 h duration, exercise intensity appears to have a greater effect on anti-inflammatory cytokine production than exercise-induced muscle damage

Computer simulation of underground blast response of pile in saturated soil

This paper treats the blast response of a pile foundation in saturated sand using explicit nonlinear finite element analysis, considering complex material behavior of soil and soil–pile interaction. Blast wave propagation in the soil is studied and the horizontal deformation of pile and effective stresses in the pile are presented. Results indicate that the upper part of the pile to be vulnerable and the pile response decays with distance from the explosive. The findings of this research provide valuable information on the effects of underground explosions on pile foundation and will guide future development, validation and application of computer models.

Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

A leap into foodservice satisfaction in the private acute care setting

Monitoring foodservice satisfaction is a risk management strategy for malnutrition in the acute care sector, as low satisfaction may be associated with poor intake. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between age and foodservice satisfaction in the private acute care setting. Patient satisfaction was assessed using a validated tool, the Acute Care Hospital Foodservice Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire for data collected 2008–2010 (n = 779) at a private hospital, Brisbane. Age was grouped into three categories; <50 years, 51–70 years and >70 years. Fisher’s exact test assessed independence of categorical responses and age group; ANOVA or Kruskal–Wallis test was used for continuous variables. Dichotomised responses were analysed using logistic regression and odds ratios (95% confidence interval, p < 0.05). Overall foodservice satisfaction (5 point scale) was high (≥4 out of 5) and was independent of age group (p = 0.377). There was an increasing trend with age in mean satisfaction scores for individual dimensions of foodservice; food quality (p < 0.001), meal service quality (p < 0.001), staff service issues (p < 0.001) and physical environment (p < 0.001). A preference for being able to choose different sized meals (59.8% > 70 years vs 40.6% ≤50 years; p < 0.001) and response to ‘the foods are just the right temperature’ (55.3% >70 years vs 35.9% ≤50 years; p < 0.001) was dependent on age. For the food quality dimension, based on dichotomised responses (satisfied or not), the odds of satisfaction was higher for >70 years (OR = 5.0, 95% CI: 1.8–13.8; <50 years referent). These results suggest that dimensions of foodservice satisfaction are associated with age and can assist foodservices to meet varying generational expectations of clients.