A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Extensive chromosomal variation associated with taxon divergence and host specificity in the gall-inducing scale insect Apiomorpha munita (Schrader) (Hemiptera : Sternorrhyncha : Coccoidea : Eriococcidae)

Apiomorpha Rubsaamen (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Eriococcidae) is one of the most chromosomally diverse of all animal genera. There is extensive karyotypic variation within many of the morphologically defined species, including A. munita (Schrader) which is here reported to have diploid chromosome counts ranging from 6 to more than 100. Each of the three morphologically defined subspecies of A. munita also displays considerable chromosomal variation: A. m. tereticornuta Gullan (2n =6, 8, 20, 22 or 24), A. m. malleensis Gullan (2n =6, 20, 22, 24 or 26), and A. m. munita (Schrader) (2n=54 or >100). Apiomorpha munita appears to occur only on eucalypts of the informal subgenus Symphyomyrtus, with each of the subspecies of A. munita restricted to discrete symphyomyrt sections. Several different karyotypic forms within each subspecies of A. munita appear to be restricted to only one or a few eucalypt species or series. The association between apparent host specificity and chromosomal rearrangements in A. munita suggests that both may be playing an active role in taxon divergence in Apiomorpha. (C) 2001 The Linnean Society of London.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

A formal representation of assumptions in process modelling

In this work, we present a systematic approach to the representation of modelling assumptions. Modelling assumptions form the fundamental basis for the mathematical description of a process system. These assumptions can be translated into either additional mathematical relationships or constraints between model variables, equations, balance volumes or parameters. In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The smallest indivisible syntactical element, the so called assumption atom has been identified as a triplet. With this syntax a modelling assumption can be described as an elementary assumption, i.e. an assumption consisting of only an assumption atom or a composite assumption consisting of a conjunction of elementary assumptions. The above syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and necessary conditions for checking them are given. These transformations can be used in several ways and their implications can be analysed by formal methods. The modelling assumptions define model hierarchies. That is, a series of model families each belonging to a particular equivalence class. These model equivalence classes can be related to primal assumptions regarding the definition of mass, energy and momentum balance volumes and to secondary and tiertinary assumptions regarding the presence or absence and the form of mechanisms within the system. Within equivalence classes, there are many model members, these being related to algebraic model transformations for the particular model. We show how these model hierarchies are driven by the underlying assumption structure and indicate some implications on system dynamics and complexity issues. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Japanese encephalitis on Badu Island, Australia: the first isolation of Japanese encephalitis virus from Culex gelidus in the Australasian region and the role of mosquito host-feeding patterns in virus transmission cycles

During investigation of an outbreak of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in the Torres Strait, Australia, in 2000, mosquitoes were collected in Badu Island community and at a newly established communal piggery about 3 km from the community. A total of 94285 mosquitoes, comprising 91240 (96.8%) unengorged females, 1630 (1.7%) blood-engorged females and 1415 (1.5%) males, were processed for virus isolation. One isolate of JE virus was obtained from Culex gelidus, with a minimum infection rate of 12.4:1000. This is the first isolate of JE virus from Cx. gelidus in the Australasian region. No isolates were obtained from Cx. annulirostris, the primary implicated Australian JE vector. Analysis of mosquito host-feeding patterns, using gel diffusion, demonstrated that Cx. annulirostris and 5 other species fed predominately on mammals, Analysis of blood-fed mosquitoes collected within the community demonstrated that the proportion of Cx. annulirostris feeding on pigs in 2000 (2.3%) was significantly lower than that for the 1995-97 period (31.3%). The removal of the pigs from Badu Island community has limited the contact between potential amplifying hosts and mosquitoes, thus potentially reducing the risk of transmission of JE virus to the human population.

Latitudinal variability in symbiont specificity within the widespread scleractinian coral Plesiastrea versipora

We examined the genetic diversity of symbiotic dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium sp.) in the widespread hermatypic coral Plesiastrea versipora from tropical/subtropical (north-eastern Australia) and temperate waters (south-eastern Australia) using restriction fragment length polymorphisms of partial 18S ribosomal DNA (rDNA), together with sequence analysis of partial 28S rDNA. This study revealed that P. versipora associates with at least two distinct genotypes of symbiotic dinoflagellates and that the presence of these genotypes varies with latitude. P. versipora colonies from subtropical and tropical waters contained symbionts belonging to Symbiodinium clade C, while P. versipora colonies at high-latitude sites contained clade B. Variability within the two groups of symbionts (clades H and C) was minimal, suggesting possible host fidelity. The geographically distinct varieties of symbionts within the tissue of this hermatypic coral are likely to be associated with algal physiological differences, which in turn may relate to changing selective pressures as a function of latitude along the eastern Australian seaboard.

Combination therapy with tacrolimus and anti-thymocyte globulin for the treatment of steroid-resistant acute graft-versus-host disease developing during cyclosporine prophylaxis

We report our experience with the combination of anti-thymocyte globulin (ATGAM) and tacrolimus in the treatment of 20 patients with steroid refractory and dependent acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) transplanted between August 1996 and February 2000. All patients received cyclosporine-based GVHD prophylaxis. Thirteen patients developed a maximum of grade TV, five grade III and two grade II acute GVHD, with 15 patients being refractory to steroids and five dependent on steroids. Patients were treated with ATGAM (15 mg/kg for 5 d) and tacrolimus (0.025-0.1 mg/kg/d) in addition to continuation of their high-dose steroids and cessation of their cyclosporine. Within 28 d of treatment, we observed eight complete responses (CR), six partial responses (PR) and six with no response. Overall response (CR + PR) was predicted by GVHD severity. Infectious complications occurred in 80% of patients. The median survival was 86.5 d (range, 21-1081 d) with 35% of patients remaining alive, Survival following combination therapy was significantly more likely in men (P < 0.001), skin-only GVHD (P = 0.027), less severe GVHD (P = 0.048), and in responders to tacrolimus and ATGAM (P< 0.001). In conclusion, concurrent introduction of ATGAM and tacrolimus is a promising therapeutic combination for GVHD refractory to steroids and cyclosporine.

The effect of mode of exposure to Beauveria bassiana on conidia acquisition and host mortality of Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata

The effects of the mode of exposure of second instar Colorado potato beetles to Beauveria bassiana on conidia acquisition and resulting mortality were investigated in laboratory studies. Larvae sprayed directly with a B, bassiana condial suspension, larvae exposed to B, bassiana-treated foliage, and larvae both sprayed and exposed to treated foliage experienced 76, 34, and 77% mortality, respectively. The total number of conidia and the proportion of germinating conidia were measured over time for four sections of the insect body: the ventral surface of the head (consisting mostly of ventral mouth parts), the ventral abdominal surface, the dorsal abdominal surface, and the legs. From observations at 24 and 36 h posttreatment, mean totals of 161.1 conidia per insect were found on sprayed larvae, 256.1 conidia on larvae exposed only to treated foliage, and 408.3 conidia on larvae both sprayed and exposed to treated foliage, On sprayed larvae, the majority of conidia were found on the dorsal abdominal surface, whereas conidia were predominantly found in the ventral abdominal surface and mouth parts on larvae exposed to treated foliage, Between 24 and 36 h postinoculation the percentage of conidia germinating on sprayed larvae increased slightly from 80 to 84%), On the treated foliage, the percentage of germinated conidia on larvae increased from 35% at 24 h to 50% at 36 h posttreatment, Conidia germination on sprayed larvae on treated foliage was 65% at 24 h and 75% at 36 h posttreatment, It is likely that the gradual acquisition of conidia derived from the continuous exposure to B. bassiana inoculum on the foliar surface was responsible for the increase in germination over time on larvae exposed to treated foliage, The density and germination of conidia were observed 0, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, and 24 h after being sprayed with or dipped in conidia suspensions or exposing insects to contaminated foliage, Conidia germinated twice as fast on sprayed insects as with any other treatment within the first 12 h, This faster germination may be due to the pressure of the sprayer enhancing conidial lodging on cuticular surfaces. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Time of treatment influences the appearance of drug-resistant parasites in Plasmodium falciparum infections

A deterministic mathematical model which predicts the probability of developing a new drug-resistant parasite population within the human host is reported, The model incorporates the host's specific antibody response to PfEMP1, and also investigates the influence of chemotherapy on the probability of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population within the host. Results indicate that early, treatment, and a high antibody threshold coupled with a long lag time between antibody stimulation and activity, are risk factors which increase the likelihood of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population. High parasite mutation rates and fast PfEMP1 var gene switching are also identified as risk factors. The model output allows the relative importance of the various risk factors as well as the relationships between them to be established, thereby increasing the understanding of the conditions which favour the development of a new drug-resistant parasite population.

Cleavage of hemoglobin by hookworm cathespin D aspartic proteases and its potential contribution to host specificity

Hookworms routinely reach the gut of nonpermissive hosts but fail to successfully feed, develop, and reproduce. To investigate the effects of host-parasite coevolution on the ability of hookworms to feed in nonpermissive hosts, we cloned and expressed aspartic proteases from canine and human hookworms. We show here that a cathepsin D-like protease from the canine hookworm Ancylosotoma caninum (Ac-APR-1) and the orthologous protease from the human hookworm Necator americanus (Na-APR-1) are expressed in the gut and probably exert their proteolytic activity extracellularly. Both proteases were detected immunologically and enzymatically in somatic extracts of adult worms. The two proteases were expressed in baculovirus, and both cleaved human and dog hemoglobin (Hb) in vitro. Each protease digested Hb from its permissive host between twofold (whole molecule) and sixfold (synthetic peptides) more efficiently than Hb from the nonpermissive host, despite the two proteases' having identical residues lining their active site clefts. Furthermore, both proteases cleaved Hb at numerous distinct sites and showed different substrate preferences. The findings suggest that the paradigm of matching the molecular structure of the food source within a host to the molecular structure of the catabolic proteases of the parasite is an important contributing factor for host-parasite compatibility and host species range.

Simulation of insect movement with respect to plant architecture and morphogenesis

Developments in computer and three dimensional (3D) digitiser technologies have made it possible to keep track of the broad range of data required to simulate an insect moving around or over the highly heterogeneous habitat of a plant's surface. Properties of plant parts vary within a complex canopy architecture, and insect damage can induce further changes that affect an animal's movements, development and likelihood of survival. Models of plant architectural development based on Lindenmayer systems (L-systems) serve as dynamic platforms for simulation of insect movement, providing ail explicit model of the developing 3D structure of a plant as well as allowing physiological processes associated with plant growth and responses to damage to be described and Simulated. Simple examples of the use of the L-system formalism to model insect movement, operating Lit different spatial scales-from insects foraging on an individual plant to insects flying around plants in a field-are presented. Such models can be used to explore questions about the consequences of changes in environmental architecture and configuration on host finding, exploitation and its population consequences. In effect this model is a 'virtual ecosystem' laboratory to address local as well as landscape-level questions pertinent to plant-insect interactions, taking plant architecture into account. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A naturally selected dimorphism within the HLA-B44 supertype alters class I structure, peptide repertoire, and T cell recognition

HLA-B*4402 and B*4403 are naturally occurring MHC class I alleles that are both found at a hi,,h frequency in all human populations, and vet they only differ by one residue on the alpha2 helix (B*4402 Aspl56-->B*4403 Leu156) CTLs discriminate between HLA-B*4402 and B*4403, and these allotypes stimulate strong mutual allogeneic responses reflecting their known barrier to hemopoeitic stem cell transplantation. Although HLA-B*4402 and B*4403 share >95% of their peptide repertoire, B*4403 presents more unique peptides than B*4402, consistent with the stronger T cell alloreactivity observed toward B*4403 compared with B*4402. Crystal structures of B*4402 and B*4403 show how the polymorphisin at position 156 is completely buried and yet alters both the peptide and the heavy chain conformation, relaxing ligand selection by B*4403 compared with B*4402. Thus, the polymorphism between HLA-B*4402 and B 4403 modifies both peptide repertoire and T cell recognition, and is reflected lit the paradoxically powerful alloreactivity that occurs across this minimal mismatch. The findings suggest that these closely related class I genes are maintained lit diverse human populations through their differential impact on the selection of peptide ligands and the T cell repertoire.

Pathogenic specialisation within Colletotrichum trifolii in Australia, and lucerne cultivar reactions to all known Australian pathotypes

Anthracnose and crown rot, caused by Colletotrichum trifolii, are serious diseases of lucerne (Medicago saliva L.) in humid regions of the world. A race survey was conducted by inoculating individual lucerne clones (genotypes) with C. trifolii isolates collected from a range of Medicago hosts, locations, and years in south-eastern Queensland. This survey revealed for the first time in Australia the presence of race 2 (virulence on anthracnose resistance gene An I) and the first world report of race 4 (virulence on An(2)). A collection of North American race I and race 2 C. trifolii isolates, when inoculated onto the Australian differential clones, gave responses that were in agreement with their North American reactions. A RAPD analysis was conducted on 9 Australian C. trifolii isolates including races 1, 2, and 4; two C. destructivum and one C. gloeosporioides isolate were included as known outliers. For the C. trifolii isolates, 94.6% similarity was found regardless of host origin or race, compared with 2.2% similarity between this group and the C. gloeosporioides and C. destructivum isolates, confirming that the new races belong to C. trifolii. Currently, it is hypothesised that only plants carrying genes An, and An2 are resistant to the 3 races. Of 22 cultivars screened against the 3 races, only UQL-1, Hallmark, and Pioneer 54Q53 had >30% of plants resistant to the 3 races in separate screenings. The research highlights the need to find new sources of resistance to C. trifolii in lucerne.

Numerical simulations of wind and temperature structure within an Alpine lake basin, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand

High-resolution numerical model simulations have been used to study the local and mesoscale thermal circulations in an Alpine lake basin. The lake (87 km(2)) is situated in the Southern Alps, New Zealand and is located in a glacially excavated rock basin surrounded by mountain ranges that reach 3000 m in height. The mesoscale model used (RAMS) is a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model with a level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme. The model demonstrates that thermal forcing at local (within the basin) and regional (coast-to-basin inflow) scales drive the observed boundary-layer airflow in the lake basin during clear anticyclonic summertime conditions. The results show that the lake can modify (perturb) both the local and regional wind systems. Following sunrise, local thermal circulations dominate, including a lake breeze component that becomes embedded within the background valley wind system. This results in a more divergent flow in the basin extending across the lake shoreline. However, a closed lake breeze circulation is neither observed nor modelled. Modelling results indicate that in the latter part of the day when the mesoscale (coast-to-basin) inflow occurs, the relatively cold pool of lake air in the basin can cause the intrusion to decouple from the surface. Measured data provide qualitative and quantitative support for the model results.