A multi-model approach to evaluate the role of environmental variability and fishing pressure in sardine fisheries

Understanding the fluctuations in population abundance is a central question in fisheries. Sardine fisheries is of great importance to Portugal and is data-rich and of primary concern to fisheries managers. In Portugal, sub-stocks of Sardina pilchardus (sardine) are found in different regions: the Northwest (IXaCN), Southwest (IXaCS) and the South coast (IXaS-Algarve). Each of these sardine sub-stocks is affected differently by a unique set of climate and ocean conditions, mainly during larval development and recruitment, which will consequently affect sardine fisheries in the short term. Taking this hypothesis into consideration we examined the effects of hydrographic (river discharge), sea surface temperature, wind driven phenomena, upwelling, climatic (North Atlantic Oscillation) and fisheries variables (fishing effort) on S. pilchardus catch rates (landings per unit effort, LPUE, as a proxy for sardine biomass). A 20-year time series (1989-2009) was used, for the different subdivisions of the Portuguese coast (sardine sub-stocks). For the purpose of this analysis a multi-model approach was used, applying different time series models for data fitting (Dynamic Factor Analysis, Generalised Least Squares), forecasting (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), as well as Surplus Production stock assessment models. The different models were evaluated, compared and the most important variables explaining changes in LPUE were identified. The type of relationship between catch rates of sardine and environmental variables varied across regional scales due to region-specific recruitment responses. Seasonality plays an important role in sardine variability within the three study regions. In IXaCN autumn (season with minimum spawning activity, larvae and egg concentrations) SST, northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE. In IXaCS none of the explanatory variables tested was clearly related with LPUE. In IXaS-Algarve (South Portugal) both spring (period when large abundances of larvae are found) northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE, revealing that environmental effects match with the regional peak in spawning time. Overall, results suggest that management of small, short-lived pelagic species, such as sardine quotas/sustainable yields, should be adapted to a regional scale because of regional environmental variability.

Australia and New Zealand CBNG development and environmental implications

Following the success of Coalbed Natural Gas (CBNG) operations in the United States, companies in Australia and New Zealand have been actively exploring and developing this technology for the last two decades. In particular, the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland, Australia, have undergone extensive CBNG development. Unfortunately, awareness of potential environmental problems associated with CBNG abstraction has not been widespread and legislation has at times struggled to keep up with rapid development. In Australia, the combined CBNG resource for both the Bowen and Surat basins has been estimated at approximately 10,500 PJ with gas content as high as 10 m3/tonne of coal. There are no official estimates for the magnitude of the CBNG resource in New Zealand but initial estimates suggest this could be up to 1,300 PJ with gas content ranging from 1 to 5 m3/tonne of coal. In Queensland, depressurization of the Walloon Coal Measures to recover CBNG has the potential to induce drawdown in adjacent deep aquifer systems through intraformational groundwater flow. In addition, CBNG operators have been disposing their co-produced water by using large unlined ponds, which is not the best practice for managing co-produced water. CBNG waters in Queensland have the typical geochemical signature associated with CBNG waters (Van Voast, 2003) and thus have the potential to impair soils and plant growth where land disposal is considered. Water quality from exploration wells in New Zealand exhibit the same characteristics although full scale production has not yet begun. In general, the environmental impacts that could arise from CBNG water extraction depend on the aquifer system, the quantity and quality of produced water, and on the method of treatment and disposal being used. Understanding these impacts is necessary to adequately manage CBNG waters so that environmental effects are minimized; if properly managed, CBNG waters can be used for beneficial applications and can become a valuable resource to stakeholders.

A novel method for quantifying the criticality and vulnerability of the components of railway bridges

Conditions of bridges deteriorate with age, due to different critical factors including, changes in loading, fatigue, environmental effects and natural events. In order to rate a network of bridges, based on their structural condition, the condition of the components of a bridge and their effects on behaviour of the bridge should be reliably estimated. In this paper, a new method for quantifying the criticality and vulnerability of the components of the railway bridges in a network will be introduced. The type of structural analyses for identifying the criticality of the components for carrying train loads will be determined. In addition to that, the analytical methods for identifying the vulnerability of the components to natural events whose probability of occurrence is important, such as, flood, wind, earthquake and collision will be determined. In order to maintain the practicality of this method to be applied to a network of thousands of railway bridges, the simplicity of structural analysis has been taken into account. Demand by capacity ratios of the components at both safety and serviceability condition states as well as weighting factors used in current bridge management systems (BMS) are taken into consideration. It will be explained what types of information related to the structural condition of a bridge is required to be obtained, recorded and analysed. The authors of this paper will use this method in a new rating system introduced previously. Enhancing accuracy and reliability of evaluating and predicting the vulnerability of railway bridges to environmental effects and natural events will be the significant achievement of this research.

Synthetic rating procedures for railway bridges

One of the most important parts of any Bridge Management System (BMS) is the condition assessment and rating of bridges. This paper, introduces a procedure for condition assessment, based on criticality and vulnerability analysis. According to this procedure, new rating equations are developed. The inventory data is used to determine the contribution of different critical factors such as environmental effects, flood, earthquake, wind, and vehicle impacts. The criticality of the components to live load and vulnerability of the components to the above critical factors are identified. Based on the criticality and the vulnerability of the components and criticality of factors, and by using the new rating equations, the condition assessment and the rating of the railway bridges and their components at the network level will be conducted. This method for the first time incorporates structural analysis, available knowledge of risk assessment in structural engineering standards, and the experience of structural engineers in a practical way to enhance the reliability of the condition assessment and rating a network of bridges.

Energy price-induced and exogenous technological change : Assessing the economic and environmental outcomes

In this paper, we distinguish between factor/output substitution and shifts in the production technology frontier. Our model includes the by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions where the function requires the simultaneous expansion of good outputs and reductions in emissions. We estimate a directional output distance function for 80 countries over the period 1971-2000 to measure the exogenous and oil price-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial oil price-induced technological progress at the world level when long-term oil prices are rising, although the growth rate is more volatile in developed countries than in developing countries. The results also show that developed countries experience higher exogenous technological progress in comparison with developing countries, and the gap between the two has increased during the period of our study.

Trade-induced technological change : analyzing economic and environmental outcomes

We analyze how changes in trade openness are related to induced technological innovations that are not only GDP increasing but also pollution saving. Our model includes by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions. We estimate a directional distance function for 76 countries over the period 1963-2000 to measure exogenous and trade-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial trade-induced technological progress, and its magnitude is about one third of the overall technological change. The trade-induced technological changes, however, are GDP reducing and pollution increasing. Empirically, we find that increased trade openness correlates to increased pollution.

Measurement of genetic and environmental variation in barley (Hordeum vulgare) grain hardness

In this study, we assessed a broad range of barley breeding lines and commercial varieties by three hardness methods (two particle size methods and one crush resistance method (SKCS—Single-Kernel Characterization System), grown at multiple sites to see if there was variation in barley hardness and if that variation was genetic or environmentally controlled. We also developed near-infrared reflectance (NIR) calibrations for these three hardness methods to ascertain if NIR technology was suitable for rapid screening of breeding lines or specific populations. In addition, we used this data to identify genetic regions that may be associated with hardness. There were significant (p<0.05) genetic effects for the three hardness methods. There were also environmental effects, possibly linked to the effect of protein on hardness, i.e. increasing protein resulted in harder grain. Heritability values were calculated at >85% for all methods. The NIR calibrations, with R2 values of >90%, had Standard Error of Prediction values of 0.90, 72 and 4.0, respectively, for the three hardness methods. These equations were used to predict hardness values of a mapping population which resulted in genetic markers being identified on all chromosomes but chromosomes 2H, 3H, 5H, 6H and 7H had markers with significant LOD scores. The two regions on 5H were on the distal end of both the long and short arms. The region that showed significant LOD score was on the long arm. However, the region on the short arm associated with the hardness (hordoindoline) genes did not have significant LOD scores. The results indicate that barley hardness is influenced by both genotype and environment and that the trait is heritable, which would allow breeders to develop very hard or soft varieties if required. In addition, NIR was shown to be a reliable tool for screening for hardness. While the data set used in this study has a relatively low variation in hardness, the tools developed could be applied to breeding populations that have large variation in barley grain hardness.

Genetic and environmental influences on migraine: a twin study across six countries

Migraine is a common neurovascular brain disorder that is manifested in recurrent episodes of disabling headache. The aim of the present study was to compare the prevalence and heritability of migraine across six of the countries that participate in GenomEUtwin project including a total number of 29,717 twin pairs. Migraine was assessed by questionnaires that differed between most countries. It was most prevalent in Danish and Dutch females (32% and 34%, respectively), whereas the lowest prevalence was found in the younger and older Finnish cohorts (13% and 10%, respectively). The estimated genetic variance (heritability) was significant and the same between sexes in all countries. Heritability ranged from 34% to 57%, with lowest estimates in Australia, and highest estimates in the older cohort of Finland, the Netherlands, and Denmark. There was some indication that part of the genetic variance was non-additive, but this was significant in Sweden only. In addition to genetic factors, environmental effects that are non-shared between members of a twin pair contributed to the liability of migraine. After migraine definitions are homogenized among the participating countries, the GenomEUtwin project will provide a powerful resource to identify the genes involved in migraine.

Genetic and environmental influences on human responses to odors

Olfaction, the sense of smell, has many important functions in humans. Human responses to odors show substantial individual variation. Olfactory receptor genes have been identified and other genes may also influence olfaction. However, the proportion of phenotypic variation in odor response due to genetic variation remains largely unknown. Little is also known about which genes modify specific responses to odors. This study aimed to elucidate genetic and environmental influences on human responses to odors. Individuals from Finnish families (n=146) and Australian (n=413), British (n=163), Danish (n=336), and Finnish (n=399) twins rated intensity and pleasantness of a set of 12 (families) or 6 (twins) odors and tried to identify the odors. In addition, the participants rated their own sense of smell and annoyance experienced with different environmental odors. The odor stimuli of a commercial smell test (The Brief Smell Identification Test; banana, chocolate, cinnamon, gasoline, lemon, onion, paint thinner, pineapple, rose, smoke, soap, and turpentine) were presented in the family study. Based on the results of the family study and a literature survey, a new set of odor stimuli (androstenone, chocolate, cinnamon, isovaleric acid, lemon, and turpentine) was designed for the twin studies. In the family sample, heritabilities of the traits were estimated and underlying genomic regions were searched using a genome-wide linkage scan. In the pooled twin sample, variation in the measured traits was decomposed into genetic and environmental components using quantitative genetic modeling. In addition, associations between nongenetic factors (e.g., sex, age, and smoking) and olfactory-related traits were explored. Suggestive evidence for a genetic linkage for pleasantness of cinnamon at a locus on chromosome 4q32.3 emerged from the family sample. High heritability for the pleasantness of cinnamon was found in the family but not the twin study. Heritability of perceived intensity of androstenone odor was determined to be ~30% in the twin sample. A strong genetic correlation between perceived intensity and pleasantness of androstenone, in the absence of any environmental correlation, indicated that only the genetic correlation explained the phenotypic correlation between the traits (r=-0.27) and that the traits were influenced by an overlapping set of genes. Self-rated olfactory function appeared to reflect the odor annoyance experienced rather than actual olfactory acuity or genetic involvement. Results from nongenetic analyses supported the speculated superiority of females' olfactory abilities, the age-related diminishing of olfactory acuity, and the influences of experience-dependent factors on odor responses. This was the first study to estimate heritabilities and perform linkage screens for individual odors. A genetic effect was detected for only a few responses to specific odors, suggesting the predominance of environmental effects in odor perceptions.

A physiological framework to explain genetic and environmental regulation of tillering in sorghum

Tillering determines the plant size of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) and an understanding of its regulation is important to match genotypes to prevalent growing conditions in target production environments. The aim of this study was to determine the physiological and environmental regulation of variability in tillering among sorghum genotypes, and to develop a framework for this regulation. * Diverse sorghum genotypes were grown in three experiments with contrasting temperature, radiation and plant density to create variation in tillering. Data on phenology, tillering, and leaf and plant size were collected. A carbohydrate supply/demand (S/D) index that incorporated environmental and genotypic parameters was developed to represent the effects of assimilate availability on tillering. Genotypic differences in tillering not explained by this index were defined as propensity to tiller (PTT) and probably represented hormonal effects. * Genotypic variation in tillering was associated with differences in leaf width, stem diameter and PTT. The S/D index captured most of the environmental effects on tillering and PTT most of the genotypic effects. * A framework that captures genetic and environmental regulation of tillering through assimilate availability and PTT was developed, and provides a basis for the development of a model that connects genetic control of tillering to its phenotypic consequences.

Effects of temper level on the dependence of fatigue crack growth threshold and crack closure on the prior austenitic grain size

An attempt has been made to systematically investigate the effects of microstructural parameters, such as the prior austenite grain size (PAGS), in influencing the resistance to fatigue crack growth (FCG) in the near-threshold region under three different temper levels in a quenched and tempered high-strength steel. By austenitizing at various temperatures, the PAGS was varied from about 0.7 to 96 μm. The microstructures with these grain sizes were tempered at 200 °C, 400 °C, and 530 °C and tested for fatigue thresholds and crack closure. It has been found that, in general, three different trends in the dependence of both the total threshold stress intensity range, ΔK th , and the intrinsic threshold stress intensity range, ΔK eff, th , on the PAGS are observable. By considering in detail the factors such as cyclic stress-strain behavior, environmental effects on FCG, and embrittlement during tempering, the present observations could be rationalized. The strong dependence of ΔK th and ΔK eff, th on PAGS in microstructures tempered at 530 °C has been primarily attributed to cyclic softening and thereby the strong interaction of the crack tip deformation field with the grain boundary. On the other hand, a less strong dependence of ΔK th and ΔK eff, th on PAGS is suggested to be caused by the cyclic hardening behavior of lightly tempered microstructures occurring in 200 °C temper. In both microstructures, crack closure influenced near-threshold FCG (NTFCG) to a significant extent, and its magnitude was large at large grain sizes. Microstructures tempered at the intermediate temperatures failed to show a systematic variation of ΔKth and ΔKeff, th with PAGS. The mechanisms of intergranular fracture vary between grain sizes in this temper. A transition from “microstructure-sensitive” to “microstructure-insensitive” crack growth has been found to occur when the zone of cyclic deformation at the crack tip becomes more or less equal to PAGS. Detailed observations on fracture morphology and crack paths corroborate the grain size effects on fatigue thresholds and crack closure.

Effects of the Santa Barbara, Calif., Oil Spill on the Apparent Abundance of Pelagic Fishery Resources

Many studies have been made of the effects of oil on marine invertebrates, plants (marine algae and phytoplankton), and vertebrates such as seabirds and marine mammals. An excellent review of these findings, which includes some references to fish and pathological effects of aromatic hydrocarbons, has been published by the Royal Society, London (Clark, 1982). That review dealt with the environmental effects of such major oil spills or releases such as those by the tankers Torry Canyon (119,000 t) on the south coast of England, Metula (50-56,000 t) in the Straits of Magellan, Argo Merchant (26,000 t) off Cape Cod, and the super tanker Amoco Cadiz (223,000 t) on the coast of northern Brittany. Those spills were studied to determine their effect on living resources. In contrast there are few references on the impact of oil spills on pelagic fishery resources.

Industrial development and land use/cover change and their effects on local environment: a case study of Changshu in eastern coastal China

The interactions among industrial development, land use/cover change (LUCC), and environmental effects in Changshu in the eastern coastal China were analyzed using high-resolution Landsat TM data in 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2006, socio-economic data and water environmental quality monitoring data from research institutes and governmental departments. Three phases of industrial development in Changshu were examined (i.e., the three periods of 1990 to 1995, 1995 to 2000, and 2000 to 2006). Besides industrial development and rapid urbanization, land use/cover in Changshu had changed drastically from 1990 to 2006. This change was characterized by major replacements of farmland by urban and rural settlements, artificial ponds, forested and constructed land. Industrialization, urbanization, agricultural structure adjustment, and rural housing construction were the major socio-economic driving forces of LUCC in Changshu. In addition, the annual value of ecosystem services in Changshu decreased slightly during 1990-2000, but increased significantly during 2000-2006. Nevertheless, the local environmental quality in Changshu, especially in rural areas, has not yet been improved significantly. Thus, this paper suggests an increased attention to fully realize the role of land supply in adjustment of environment-friendly industrial structure and urban-rural spatial restructuring, and translating the land management and environmental protection policies into an optimized industrial distribution and land-use pattern.

Testing the effects of genetic crossing distance on embryo survival within a metapopulation of brown trout (Salmo trutta)

Predicting progeny performance from parental genetic divergence can potentially enhance the efficiency of supportive breeding programmes and facilitate risk assessment. Yet, experimental testing of the effects of breeding distance on offspring performance remains rare, especially in wild populations of vertebrates. Recent studies have demonstrated that embryos of salmonid fish are sensitive indicators of additive genetic variance for viability traits. We therefore used gametes of wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) from five genetically distinct populations of a river catchment in Switzerland, and used a full factorial design to produce over 2,000 embryos in 100 different crosses with varying genetic distances (FST range 0.005-0.035). Customized egg capsules allowed recording the survival of individual embryos until hatching under natural field conditions. Our breeding design enabled us to evaluate the role of the environment, of genetic and nongenetic parental contributions, and of interactions between these factors, on embryo viability. We found that embryo survival was strongly affected by maternal environmental (i.e. non-genetic) effects and by the microenvironment, i.e. by the location within the gravel. However, embryo survival was not predicted by population divergence, parental allelic dissimilarity, or heterozygosity, neither in the field nor under laboratory conditions. Our findings suggest that the genetic effects of inter-population hybridization within a genetically differentiated meta-population can be minor in comparison to environmental effects.

Techniques for Enhancing Wind Energy Generation - A CFD Based Multibody Dynamics Approach in Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines

Wind energy has emerged as a major sustainable source of energy.The efficiency of wind power generation by wind mills has improved a lot during the last three decades.There is still further scope for maximising the conversion of wind energy into mechanical energy.In this context,the wind turbine rotor dynamics has great significance.The present work aims at a comprehensive study of the Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine (HAWT) aerodynamics by numerically solving the fluid dynamic equations with the help of a finite-volume Navier-Stokes CFD solver.As a more general goal,the study aims at providing the capabilities of modern numerical techniques for the complex fluid dynamic problems of HAWT.The main purpose is hence to maximize the physics of power extraction by wind turbines.This research demonstrates the potential of an incompressible Navier-Stokes CFD method for the aerodynamic power performance analysis of horizontal axis wind turbine.The National Renewable Energy Laboratory USA-NREL (Technical Report NREL/Cp-500-28589) had carried out an experimental work aimed at the real time performance prediction of horizontal axis wind turbine.In addition to a comparison between the results reported by NREL made and CFD simulations,comparisons are made for the local flow angle at several stations ahead of the wind turbine blades.The comparison has shown that fairly good predictions can be made for pressure distribution and torque.Subsequently, the wind-field effects on the blade aerodynamics,as well as the blade/tower interaction,were investigated.The selected case corresponded to a 12.5 m/s up-wind HAWT at zero degree of yaw angle and a rotational speed of 25 rpm.The results obtained suggest that the present can cope well with the flows encountered around wind turbines.The areodynamic performance of the turbine and the flow details near and off the turbine blades and tower can be analysed using theses results.The aerodynamic performance of airfoils differs from one another.The performance mainly depends on co-efficient of performnace,co-efficient of lift,co-efficient of drag, velocity of fluid and angle of attack.This study shows that the velocity is not constant for all angles of attack of different airfoils.The performance parameters are calculated analytically and are compared with the standardized performance tests.For different angles of ,the velocity stall is determined for the better performance of a system with respect to velocity.The research addresses the effect of surface roughness factor on the blade surface at various sections.The numerical results were found to be in agreement with the experimental data.A relative advantage of the theoretical aerofoil design method is that it allows many different concepts to be explored economically.Such efforts are generally impractical in wind tunnels because of time and money constraints.Thus, the need for a theoretical aerofoil design method is threefold:first for the design of aerofoil that fall outside the range of applicability of existing calalogs:second,for the design of aerofoil that more exactly match the requirements of the intended application:and third,for the economic exploration of many aerofoil concepts.From the results obtained for the different aerofoils,the velocity is not constant for all angles of attack.The results obtained for the aerofoil mainly depend on angle of attack and velocity.The vortex generator technique was meticulously studies with the formulation of the specification for the right angle shaped vortex generators-VG.The results were validated in accordance with the primary analysis phase.The results were found to be in good agreement with the power curve.The introduction of correct size VGs at appropriate locations over the blades of the selected HAWT was found to increase the power generation by about 4%