Contracting externalities and multiple equilibria in sectors: Theory and evidence

We consider an economy where the production technology has constantreturns to scale but where in the descentralized equilibrium thereare aggregate increasing returns to scale. The result follows froma positive contracting externality among firms. If a firms issurrounded by more firms, employees have more opportunitiesoutside their own firm. This improves employees' incentives toinvest in the presence of ex post renegotiation at the firm level,at not cost. Our leading result is that if a region is sparselypopulated or if the degree of development in the region is lowenough, there are multiple equilibria in the level of sectorialemployment. From the theoretical model we derive a non-linearfirst-order censored difference equation for sectoral employment.Our results are strongly consistent with the multiple equilibriahypothesis and the existence of a sectoral critical scale (belowwich the sector follows a delocation process). The scale of theregions' population and the degree of development reduce thecritical scale of the sector.

On forward induction and evolutionary and strategic stability

We analyze which normal form solution concepts capture the notion offorward induction, as defined by van Damme (JET, 1989) in the classof generic two player normal form games preceded by an outsideoption. We find that none of the known strategic stability concepts(including Mertens stable sets and hyperstable sets) captures this form of forward induction. On the other hand, we show that the evolutionary concept of EES set (Swinkels, JET, 1992) is always consistent with forward induction.

Cost efficiency in primary care contracting: A stochastic frontier cost function approach

The principal aim of this paper is to estimate a stochastic frontier costfunction and an inefficiency effects model in the analysis of the primaryhealth care services purchased by the public authority and supplied by 180providers in 1996 in Catalonia. The evidence from our sample does not supportthe premise that contracting out has helped improve purchasing costefficiency in primary care. Inefficient purchasing cost was observed in thecomponent of this purchasing cost explicitly included in the contract betweenpurchaser and provider. There are no observable incentives for thecontracted-out primary health care teams to minimise prescription costs, whichare not explicitly included in the present contracting system.

Pitfalls in the modeling of forward-looking price setting and investment decisions

The present paper makes progress in explaining the role of capital for inflation and output dynamics. We followWoodford (2003, Ch. 5) in assuming Calvo pricing combined with a convex capital adjustment cost at the firm level. Our main result is that capital accumulation affects inflation dynamics primarily through its impact on the marginal cost. This mechanism is much simpler than the one implied by the analysis in Woodford's text. The reason is that his analysis suffers from a conceptual mistake, as we show. The latter obscures the economic mechanism through which capital affects inflation and output dynamics in the Calvo model, as discussed in Woodford (2004).

Forward induction and the excess capacity puzzle: An experimental investigation

While the theoretical industrial organization literature has long arguedthat excess capacity can be used to deter entry into markets, there islittle empirical evidence that incumbent firms effectively behave in thisway. Bagwell and Ramey (1996) propose a game with a specific sequence ofmoves and partially-recoverable capacity costs in which forward inductionprovides a theoretical rationalization for firm behavior in the field. Weconduct an experiment with a game inspired by their work. In our data theincumbent tends to keep the market, in contrast to what the forwardinduction argument of Bagwell and Ramey would suggest. The results indicatethat players perceive that the first mover has an advantage without havingto pre-commit capacity. In our game, evolution and learning do not driveout this perception. We back these claims with data analysis, atheoretical framework for dynamics, and simulation results.

Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Weekly Activity Report, May 16, 2009 Week 19

The Iowa Influenza Surveillance Network (IISN) is comprised of physicians, schools, child care centers, businesses, and long term care facilities who track the occurrence on influenza-like illness. In addition, the state influenza coordinator tracks the number of deaths due to pneumonia and influenza in Des Moines weekly as part of the 122-Cities Morbidity and Mortality reporting system sponsored by CDC.

Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Weekly Activity Report, May 9, 2009 Week 18

The Iowa Influenza Surveillance Network (IISN) is comprised of physicians, schools, child care centers, businesses, and long term care facilities who track the occurrence on influenza-like illness. In addition, the state influenza coordinator tracks the number of deaths due to pneumonia and influenza in Des Moines weekly as part of the 122-Cities Morbidity and Mortality reporting system sponsored by CDC.

Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Weekly Activity Report, May 2, 2009 Week 17

Weekly report of the Iowa Influenza Surveillance Network produced by the Iowa Department of Public Health.

Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Weekly Activity Report, April 25, 2009, Week 16

Weekly report of the Iowa Influenza Surveillance Network produced by the Iowa Department of Public Health.

Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Weekly Activity Report, April 18, 2009, Week 15

Weekly report of the Iowa Influenza Surveillance Network produced by the Iowa Department of Public Health.

Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Weekly Activity Report, April 11, 2009, Week 14

Weekly report of the Iowa Influenza Surveillance Network produced by the Iowa Department of Public Health.

Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Weekly Activity Report, April 4, 2009, Week 13

Weekly report of the Iowa Influenza Surveillance Network produced by the Iowa Department of Public Health.

Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Weekly Activity Report, March 28, 2009, Week 12

Weekly report of the Iowa Influenza Surveillance Network produced by the Iowa Department of Public Health.

Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Weekly Activity Report, March 21, 2009, Week 11

Weekly report of the Iowa Influenza Surveillance Network produced by the Iowa Department of Public Health.