Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean C3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained1, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness2 and trade practices5 will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

RESONANCE RAMAN INVESTIGATION OF PH-DEPENDENT EQUILIBRIA OF WATER-SOLUBLE IRON PORPHYRINS

Resonance Raman spectroscopy has been used to probe the structures of; tetrakis(1-methylpyridinium-4-yl)-porphinatoiron(III), FeIII (T4MPyP); tetrakis(1-methylpyridium-2-yl)porphinatoiron(III), FeIII (T2MPyP); tetrakis(4-sulphonatophkenyl)porphinatoir(III), FeIII(TSPP); and tetrakis(4-carboxylatophenyl)porphinatoiron(III), FeIII(TCPP), over a wide pH range. The anionic complexes FeIII (TSPP) and FeIII (TCPP) contain high-spin iron(III) at all pHs. Both these complexes exhibit marked spectral changes at ca. pH 6 which correspond to conversion from the diaquo species, in acid solution, to hydroxy- or mu-oxo dimer complexes. Both cationic complexes show similar diaquo to high-spin hydroxy, or mu-oxo dimer, transitions at ca. pH 6. However, at pH > 11.5 for FeIII (T4MPyP) and pH > 9 for FeIII (T2MPyP) a second equilibrium process is observed, leading to two new species. One of these is readily assigned as the low-spin iron(III) dihydroxy complex by analogy with spectra of the dicyano complex. The second species is assigned to the hydroxy iron(II) complex by comparison with photo-chemically generated FeII (T4MPyP) (OH). The formation of iron(II) species in alkaline solutions of FeIII (T4MPyP) and FeIII (T2MPyP) is entirely unexpected and the significance of the observation to previous investigations of the pH-dependent behaviour of these complexes is discussed.

The Doñana ecological disaster:contamination of a world heritage estuarine marsh ecosystem with acidified pyrite mine waste

One of the most important bird breeding and over wintering sites in the west of Europe, the Coto Doñana, was severely impacted by the release of 5 million cubic meters of acid waste from the processing of pyrite ore. The waste entered ecologically sensitive areas of the park (including breeding areas for internationally endangered bird species) causing sustained pH decreases from pH 8.5 to 4.5 and resulting in massive metal contamination of the impacted ecosystem. The contaminating sludge waste contained arsenic at 0.6%, lead at 1.2% and zinc at 0.8% on a dry weight basis. The acid conditions facilitated the solubilization of these metals, leading to water concentrations lethal for aquatic wildlife. The accident caused considerable fish and invertebrate kills and has severe consequences for the protected bird species dependent on the impacted habitats and adjacent areas.

Simulation of economic benefits achieved by water quality improvement for recreational and professional users, within the SPICOSSA SSA (SPICOSSA System Approach) 11 - Guadiana estuary ecosystem sic

Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão da Água e da Costa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2010

Interaction between water and nutrient deficiencies in helianthus annuus

The physiological response of plants to water deficits are known to vary according to the conditions of application of drought stress and the rate of development of leaf water deficits. At the whole plant level the effect of the water shess is usually perceived as a decrease in photosynthesis and growth, and is associated with alterations in C and N metabolism (McDonald and Davies, 1996). The decrease in water potential affects transpiration and hence xylem transport of nitrate or reduced N into growing regions. The response of the photo-synthetic apparatus either to water stress or rehydration seems to be dependent "on leaf age (O'Neill, 1983; Wolfe et al., 1988). Degradation of both thylakoid and stromal N-containing compounds can occur in response to water stress, recovery from which may pequire more than a week (Chaves, 1991).

Connecting the Water and Carbon Cycles for the Generation of Food Security and Ecosystem Services

Water scarcity and food insecurity are pervasive issues in the developing world and are also intrinsically linked to one another. Through the connection of the water cycle and the carbon cycle this study illustrates that synergistic benefits can be realized by small scale farmers through the implementation of waste water irrigated agroforestry. The WaNuLCAS model is employed using La Huerta agroforestry site in Texcoco, South Central Mexico, as the basis for parameterization. The results of model simulations depicting scenarios of water scarcity and waste water irrigation clearly show that the addition of waste water greatly increases the agroforestry system’s generation of crop yields, above- and below-ground biomass, soil organic matter and carbon storage potential. This increase in carbon sequestration by the system translates into better local food security, diversified household income through payments for ecosystem services and contributes to the mitigation of global climate change.

Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon 'dieback' results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required.

Water adsorption on O-covered Ru{0001}: coverage-dependent change from dissociation to molecular adsorption

When water is coadsorbed with oxygen at coverages above 0.25ML an intact water species is observed in high resolution X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy up to 220 K, which is significantly more stable than intact water on the clean surface. The presence of this species causes a shift in the O 1s binding energy of the pre-adsorbed oxygen, which indicates the formation of hydrogen bonds between the two adsorbates. Low coverages of oxygen induce partial dissociation and recombinative desorption in the same temperature range, which illustrates that desorption temperatures alone cannot be used to determine whether water is molecularly intact or not.

Towards an improved and more flexible representation of water stress in coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance models

Coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance (A–gs) models are commonly used in ecosystem models to represent the exchange rate of CO2 and H2O between vegetation and the atmosphere. The ways these models account for water stress differ greatly among modelling schemes. This study provides insight into the impact of contrasting model configurations of water stress on the simulated leaf-level values of net photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs), the functional relationship among them and their ratio, the intrinsic water use efficiency (A/gs), as soil dries. A simple, yet versatile, normalized soil moisture dependent function was used to account for the effects of water stress on gs, on mesophyll conductance (gm) and on the biochemical capacity. Model output was compared to leaf-level values obtained from the literature. The sensitivity analyses emphasized the necessity to combine both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations of A in coupled A–gs models to accurately capture the observed functional relationships A vs. gs and A/gsvs. gs in response to drought. Accounting for water stress in coupled A–gs models by imposing either stomatal or biochemical limitations of A, as commonly practiced in most ecosystem models, failed to reproduce the observed functional relationship between key leaf gas exchange attributes. A quantitative limitation analysis revealed that the general pattern of C3 photosynthetic response to water stress may be well represented in coupled A–gs models by imposing the highest limitation strength to gm, then to gs and finally to the biochemical capacity.

Frazil dynamics and precipitation in a water column with depth-dependent supercooling

A morphological instability of a mushy layer due to a forced flow in the melt is analysed. The instability is caused by flow induced in the mushy layer by Bernoulli suction at the crests of a sinusoidally perturbed mush–melt interface. The flow in the mushy layer advects heat away from crests which promotes solidification. Two linear stability analyses are presented: the fundamental mechanism for instability is elucidated by considering the case of uniform flow of an inviscid melt; a more complete analysis is then presented for the case of a parallel shear flow of a viscous melt. The novel instability mechanism we analyse here is contrasted with that investigated by Gilpin et al. (1980) and is found to be more potent for the case of newly forming sea ice.

A regime-dependent parametrization of subgrid-scale cloud water content variability

The subgrid-scale spatial variability in cloud water content can be described by a parameter f called the fractional standard deviation. This is equal to the standard deviation of the cloud water content divided by the mean. This parameter is an input to schemes that calculate the impact of subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity on gridbox-mean radiative fluxes and microphysical process rates. A new regime-dependent parametrization of the spatial variability of cloud water content is derived from CloudSat observations of ice clouds. In addition to the dependencies on horizontal and vertical resolution and cloud fraction included in previous parametrizations, the new parametrization includes an explicit dependence on cloud type. The new parametrization is then implemented in the Global Atmosphere 6 (GA6) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model and used to model the effects of subgrid variability of both ice and liquid water content on radiative fluxes and autoconversion and accretion rates in three 20-year atmosphere-only climate simulations. These simulations show the impact of the new regime-dependent parametrization on diagnostic radiation calculations, interactive radiation calculations and both interactive radiation calculations and in a new warm microphysics scheme. The control simulation uses a globally constant f value of 0.75 to model the effect of cloud water content variability on radiative fluxes. The use of the new regime-dependent parametrization in the model results in a global mean which is higher than the control's fixed value and a global distribution of f which is closer to CloudSat observations. When the new regime-dependent parametrization is used in radiative transfer calculations only, the magnitudes of short-wave and long-wave top of atmosphere cloud radiative forcing are reduced, increasing the existing global mean biases in the control. When also applied in a new warm microphysics scheme, the short-wave global mean bias is reduced.

Soil conditioning and plant-soil feedbacks in a modified forest ecosystem are soil-context dependent

Aims There is potential for altered plant-soil feedback (PSF) to develop in human-modified ecosystems but empirical data to test this idea are limited. Here, we compared the PSF operating in jarrah forest soil restored after bauxite mining in Western Australia with that operating in unmined soil. Methods Native seedlings of jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata), acacia (Acacia pulchella), and bossiaea (Bossiaea ornata) were grown in unmined and restored soils to measure conditioning of chemical and biological properties as compared with unplanted control soils. Subsequently, acacia and bossiaea were grown in soils conditioned by their own or by jarrah seedlings to determine the net PSF. Results In unmined soil, the three plant species conditioned the chemical properties but had little effect on the biological properties. In comparison, jarrah and bossiaea conditioned different properties of restored soil while acacia did not condition this soil. In unmined soil, neutral PSF was observed, whereas in restored soil, negative PSF was associated with acacia and bossiaea. Conclusions Soil conditioning was influenced by soil context and plant species. The net PSF was influenced by soil context, not by plant species and it was different in restored and unmined soils. The results have practical implications for ecosystem restoration after human activities.

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6°C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.