Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Risk management plan and pharmacovigilance system - biopharmaceuticals: biosimilars.

Editor literario del libro, Giancarlo Nota - All chapters are Open Access articles distributed under the Creative Commons Non Commercial-Share Alike-Attribution 3.0 license, which permits to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt the work in any medium, so long as the original work is properly cited.

Flood risk management: What are the main drivers of prevention?

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Regulation: A Burden in Biopharmaceutical Industry? The Case of EU-Risk Management Plans

The generation of new medicinal products is both a contributor to global economic growth and a source of valuable benefits to human health. Given their direct responsibility for public health, regulatory authorities monitor closely both the development and exploitation of the underlying technologies and the products derived from them. The manner in which such regulation is implemented can result in regulators constraining or facilitating the generation of new products. This paper will study as an example the impact of EU Risk Management Plans (EU-RMPs), which have been mandatory for the approval of new medicines since 2005, on both the industry and regulatory authorities. In interviews, the responses of those who had experience of the implementation of EU-RMPs were mixed. Although the benefits of a more structured and predictable approach to the evaluation of risk were appreciated, some respondents perceived the regulation as an excessive burden on their organisations. The exploration of factors that influence how EU-RMP regulation affects individual firms provides new insights for both regulators and managers, and demonstrates one aspect of the complexity of the process by which new medicinal products are brought to market.

Regulation: A burden in biopharmaceutical industry? The case of EU-risk management plans

The generation of new medicinal products is both a contributor to global economic growth and a source of valuable benefits to human health. Given their direct responsibility for public health, regulatory authorities monitor closely both the development and exploitation of the underlying technologies and the products derived from them. The manner in which such regulation is implemented can result in regulators constraining or facilitating the generation of new products. This paper will study as an example the impact of EU Risk Management Plans (EU-RMPs), which have been mandatory for the approval of new medicines since 2005, on both the industry and regulatory authorities. In interviews, the responses of those who had experience of the implementation of EU-RMPs were mixed. Although the benefits of a more structured and predictable approach to the evaluation of risk were appreciated, some respondents perceived the regulation as an excessive burden on their organisations. The exploration of factors that influence how EU-RMP regulation affects individual firms provides new insights for both regulators and managers, and demonstrates one aspect of the complexity of the process by which new medicinal products are brought to market. © 2010 IEEE.

Getting to zero: evidence-based healthcare risk management is key.

In this article we call for a new approach to patient safety improvement, one based on the emerging field of evidence-based healthcare risk management (EBHRM). We explore EBHRM in the broader context of the evidence-based healthcare movement, assess the benefits and challenges that might arise in adopting an evidence-based approach, and make recommendations for meeting those challenges and realizing the benefits of a more scientific approach.