Evaluation of the sonically induced narrowing of nuclear magnetic resonance spectra of solids

The Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra of liquids contain a wealth of quantitative information that may be derived, for instance, from chemical shifts and spin-spin couplings. The available information depends on the incoherent rapid molecular motion that causes complicating effects present in the solid state to average to zero. Whereas liquid state NMR spectra show narrow lines, the corresponding NMR spectra from the solid state are normally composed of exceedingly broad resonance lines due to highly restricted molecular motion. It is, therefore, difficult to obtain directly as detailed information from the spectra of solids as from those derived from the liquid state. Studies on a new technique (SINNMR, the sonically induced narrowing of the NMR spectra of solids) to remove line broadening effects in the NMR spectra of the solid state are reported within this thesis. SINNMR involves narrowing the NMR absorptions from solid particles by irradiating them with ultrasound when they are suspended in a support liquid. It is proposed that ultrasound induces incoherent motion of the suspended particles, producing motional characteristics of the particles similar to those of rather large molecules. The first report of apparently successful experiments involving SINNMR[1] emphasised both the irreproducibility of the technique and the uncertainty regarding its true origin. If SINNMR can be made reproducible and the effect definitively attributed to the sonically induced incoherent motional averaging of particles, the technique could offer a simple alternative to the now classical magic-angle spinning (MAS) NMR[2] and the recently reported dynamic angle spinning (DAS)[3] and double rotation (DOR)[4] techniques. Evidence is presented in this thesis to support the proposal that ultrasound may be used to narrow the NMR spectral resonances from solids by inducing incoherent motion of particles suspended in support liquids and, additionally, for some solids, by inducing rotational motion of molecular constituents in the lattices of solids. Successful SINNMR line narrowing using 20 kHz ultrasound is reported for a variety of samples: including trisodium orthophosphate, polytetrafluoroethylene and aluminium alloys. Investigations of SINNMR line narrowing in trisodium phosphate have revealed the relationship between ultrasonic power, particle size and support liquid density for the production of optimum SINNMR conditions. It is also proposed that the incoherent motion of particles induced by 20 kHz ultrasound can originate from interactions between acoustically induced cavitation microjets and particles.

Techno-economic assessment and uncertainty analysis of thermochemical processes for second generation biofuels

Biomass-To-Liquid (BTL) is one of the most promising low carbon processes available to support the expanding transportation sector. This multi-step process produces hydrocarbon fuels from biomass, the so-called “second generation biofuels” that, unlike first generation biofuels, have the ability to make use of a wider range of biomass feedstock than just plant oils and sugar/starch components. A BTL process based on gasification has yet to be commercialized. This work focuses on the techno-economic feasibility of nine BTL plants. The scope was limited to hydrocarbon products as these can be readily incorporated and integrated into conventional markets and supply chains. The evaluated BTL systems were based on pressurised oxygen gasification of wood biomass or bio-oil and they were characterised by different fuel synthesis processes including: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, the Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) process and the Topsoe Integrated Gasoline (TIGAS) synthesis. This was the first time that these three fuel synthesis technologies were compared in a single, consistent evaluation. The selected process concepts were modelled using the process simulation software IPSEpro to determine mass balances, energy balances and product distributions. For each BTL concept, a cost model was developed in MS Excel to estimate capital, operating and production costs. An uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, was also carried out to examine how the uncertainty in the input parameters of the cost model could affect the output (i.e. production cost) of the model. This was the first time that an uncertainty analysis was included in a published techno-economic assessment study of BTL systems. It was found that bio-oil gasification cannot currently compete with solid biomass gasification due to the lower efficiencies and higher costs associated with the additional thermal conversion step of fast pyrolysis. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was the most promising fuel synthesis technology for commercial production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels since it achieved higher efficiencies and lower costs than TIGAS and MTG. None of the BTL systems were competitive with conventional fossil fuel plants. However, if government tax take was reduced by approximately 33% or a subsidy of £55/t dry biomass was available, transport biofuels could be competitive with conventional fuels. Large scale biofuel production may be possible in the long term through subsidies, fuels price rises and legislation.

Controlling system uncertainty in sport and work

An applied psychological framework for coping with performance uncertainty in sport and work systems is presented. The theme of personal control serves to integrate ideas prevalent in industrial and organisational psychology, the stress literature and labour process theory. These commonly focus on the promotion of tacit knowledge and learned resourcefulness in individual performers. Finally, data from an empirical evaluation of a development training programme to facilitate self-regulation skills in professional athletes are briefly highlighted.

Run-time model evaluation for requirements model-driven self-adaptation

A self-adaptive system adjusts its configuration to tolerate changes in its operating environment. To date, requirements modeling methodologies for self-adaptive systems have necessitated analysis of all potential system configurations, and the circumstances under which each is to be adopted. We argue that, by explicitly capturing and modelling uncertainty in the operating environment, and by verifying and analysing this model at runtime, it is possible for a system to adapt to tolerate some conditions that were not fully considered at design time. We showcase in this paper our tools and research results. © 2012 IEEE.

Climate change adaptation planning under uncertainty in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: a case study on institutional vulnerability, adaptive capacity and climate change governance

Climate change is expected to have wide-ranging impacts on urban areas and creates additional challenges for sustainable development. Urban areas are inextricably linked with climate change, as they are major contributors to it, while also being particularly vulnerable to its impacts. Climate change presents a new challenge to urban areas, not only because of the expected rises in temperature and sea-level, but also the current context of failure to fully address the institutional barriers preventing action to prepare for climate change, or feedbacks between urban systems and agents. Despite the importance of climate change, there are few cities in developing countries that are attempting to address these issues systematically as part of their governance and planning processes. While there is a growing literature on the risks and vulnerabilities related to climate change, as yet there is limited research on the development of institutional responses, the dissemination of relevant knowledge and evaluation of tools for practical planning responses by decision makers at the city level. This thesis questions the dominant assumptions about the capacity of institutions and potential of adaptive planning. It argues that achieving a balance between climate change impacts and local government decision-making capacity is a vital for successful adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Urban spatial planning and wider environmental planning not only play a major role in reducing/mitigating risks but also have a key role in adapting to uncertainty in over future risk. The research focuses on a single province - the biggest city in Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh City - as the principal case study to explore this argument, by examining the linkages between urban planning systems, the structures of governance, and climate change adaptation planning. In conclusion it proposes a specific framework to offer insights into some of the more practical considerations, and the approach emphasises the importance of vertical and horizontal coordination in governance and urban planning.

Sepsis: the LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE®, SepsiTest™ and IRIDICA BAC BSI assay for rapidly identifying bloodstream bacteria and fungi – a systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: Sepsis can lead to multiple organ failure and death. Timely and appropriate treatment can reduce in-hospital mortality and morbidity. Objectives: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three tests [LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE® (Roche Diagnostics, Risch-Rotkreuz, Switzerland); SepsiTest™ (Molzym Molecular Diagnostics, Bremen, Germany); and the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay (Abbott Diagnostics, Lake Forest, IL, USA)] for the rapid identification of bloodstream bacteria and fungi in patients with suspected sepsis compared with standard practice (blood culture with or without matrix-absorbed laser desorption/ionisation time-offlight mass spectrometry). Data sources: Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched from January 2006 to May 2015 and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles. Review methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of effectiveness studies were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a de novo health economic model was constructed. A decision tree was used to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each test; all other parameters were estimated from published sources. The model was populated with evidence from the systematic review or individual studies, if this was considered more appropriate (base case 1). In a secondary analysis, estimates (based on experience and opinion) from seven clinicians regarding the benefits of earlier test results were sought (base case 2). A NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty. Results: For the review of diagnostic test accuracy, 62 studies of varying methodological quality were included. A meta-analysis of 54 studies comparing SeptiFast with blood culture found that SeptiFast had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.84 to 0.89] and sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CrI 0.60 to 0.71). Four studies comparing SepsiTest with blood culture found that SepsiTest had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 (95% CrI 0.78 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.48 (95% CrI 0.21 to 0.74), and four studies comparing IRIDICA with blood culture found that IRIDICA had an estimated summary specificity of 0.84 (95% CrI 0.71 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CrI 0.69 to 0.90). Owing to the deficiencies in study quality for all interventions, diagnostic accuracy data should be treated with caution. No randomised clinical trial evidence was identified that indicated that any of the tests significantly improved key patient outcomes, such as mortality or duration in an intensive care unit or hospital. Base case 1 estimated that none of the three tests provided a benefit to patients compared with standard practice and thus all tests were dominated. In contrast, in base case 2 it was estimated that all cost per QALY-gained values were below £20,000; the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay had the highest estimated incremental net benefit, but results from base case 2 should be treated with caution as these are not evidence based. Limitations: Robust data to accurately assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions are currently unavailable. Conclusions: The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions cannot be reliably determined with the current evidence base. Appropriate studies, which allow information from the tests to be implemented in clinical practice, are required.

Evaluation use within a humanitarian non-governmental organization’s health care user-fee exemption program in West Africa

L’évaluation de l’action humanitaire (ÉAH) est un outil valorisé pour soutenir l’imputabilité, la transparence et l’efficience de programmes humanitaires contribuant à diminuer les inéquités et à promouvoir la santé mondiale. L’EAH est incontournable pour les parties prenantes de programme, les bailleurs de fonds, décideurs et intervenants souhaitant intégrer les données probantes aux pratiques et à la prise de décisions. Cependant, l’utilisation de l’évaluation (UÉ) reste incertaine, l’ÉAH étant fréquemment menée, mais inutilisé. Aussi, les conditions influençant l’UÉ varient selon les contextes et leur présence et applicabilité au sein d’organisations non-gouvernementales (ONG) humanitaires restent peu documentées. Les évaluateurs, parties prenantes et décideurs en contexte humanitaire souhaitant assurer l’UÉ pérenne détiennent peu de repères puisque rares sont les études examinant l’UÉ et ses conditions à long terme. La présente thèse tend à clarifier ces enjeux en documentant sur une période de deux ans l’UÉ et les conditions qui la détermine, au sein d’une stratégie d’évaluation intégrée au programme d’exemption de paiement des soins de santé d’une ONG humanitaire. L’objectif de ce programme est de faciliter l’accès à la santé aux mères, aux enfants de moins de cinq ans et aux indigents de districts sanitaires au Niger et au Burkina Faso, régions du Sahel où des crises alimentaires et économiques ont engendré des taux élevés de malnutrition, de morbidité et de mortalité. Une première évaluation du programme d’exemption au Niger a mené au développement de la stratégie d’évaluation intégrée à ce même programme au Burkina Faso. La thèse se compose de trois articles. Le premier présente une étude d’évaluabilité, étape préliminaire à la thèse et permettant de juger de sa faisabilité. Les résultats démontrent une logique cohérente et plausible de la stratégie d’évaluation, l’accessibilité de données et l’utilité d’étudier l’UÉ par l’ONG. Le second article documente l’UÉ des parties prenantes de la stratégie et comment celle-ci servit le programme d’exemption. L’utilisation des résultats fut instrumentale, conceptuelle et persuasive, alors que l’utilisation des processus ne fut qu’instrumentale et conceptuelle. Le troisième article documente les conditions qui, selon les parties prenantes, ont progressivement influencé l’UÉ. L’attitude des utilisateurs, les relations et communications interpersonnelles et l’habileté des évaluateurs à mener et à partager les connaissances adaptées aux besoins des utilisateurs furent les conditions clés liées à l’UÉ. La thèse contribue à l’avancement des connaissances sur l’UÉ en milieu humanitaire et apporte des recommandations aux parties prenantes de l’ONG.

Comments on Uncertainty in Groundwater Governance in the Volcanic Canary Islands, Spain

[EN]The uncertainty associated with natural magnitudes and processes is conspicuous in water resources and groundwater evaluation. This uncertainty has an essential component and a part that can be reduced to some extent by increasing knowledge, improving monitoring coverage, continuous elaboration of data and accuracy and addressing the related economic and social aspects involved. Reducing uncertainty has a cost that may not be justified by the improvement that is obtainable, but that has to be known to make the right decisions. With this idea, this paper contributes general comments on the evaluation of groundwater resources in the semiarid Canary Islands and on some of the main sources of uncertainty, but a full treatment is not attempted, nor how to reduce it.

Virtual Clinical Trials in PET Imaging for Improved Diagnosis of and Evaluation of Therapies for Cancer

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Designing for User-facing Uncertainty in Everyday Sensing and Prediction

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

An experiment on the parameter uncertainty of hydrological models with different levels of complexity in a climate change context

La possibilité d’estimer l’impact du changement climatique en cours sur le comportement hydrologique des hydro-systèmes est une nécessité pour anticiper les adaptations inévitables et nécessaires que doivent envisager nos sociétés. Dans ce contexte, ce projet doctoral présente une étude sur l’évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques futures à : (i) La non-robustesse de l’identification des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques, (ii) l’utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres équifinaux et (iii) l’utilisation de différentes structures de modèles hydrologiques. Pour quantifier l’impact de la première source d’incertitude sur les sorties des modèles, quatre sous-périodes climatiquement contrastées sont tout d’abord identifiées au sein des chroniques observées. Les modèles sont calés sur chacune de ces quatre périodes et les sorties engendrées sont analysées en calage et en validation en suivant les quatre configurations du Different Splitsample Tests (Klemeš, 1986;Wilby, 2005; Seiller et al. (2012);Refsgaard et al. (2014)). Afin d’étudier la seconde source d’incertitude liée à la structure du modèle, l’équifinalité des jeux de paramètres est ensuite prise en compte en considérant pour chaque type de calage les sorties associées à des jeux de paramètres équifinaux. Enfin, pour évaluer la troisième source d’incertitude, cinq modèles hydrologiques de différents niveaux de complexité sont appliqués (GR4J, MORDOR, HSAMI, SWAT et HYDROTEL) sur le bassin versant québécois de la rivière Au Saumon. Les trois sources d’incertitude sont évaluées à la fois dans conditions climatiques observées passées et dans les conditions climatiques futures. Les résultats montrent que, en tenant compte de la méthode d’évaluation suivie dans ce doctorat, l’utilisation de différents niveaux de complexité des modèles hydrologiques est la principale source de variabilité dans les projections de débits dans des conditions climatiques futures. Ceci est suivi par le manque de robustesse de l’identification des paramètres. Les projections hydrologiques générées par un ensemble de jeux de paramètres équifinaux sont proches de celles associées au jeu de paramètres optimal. Par conséquent, plus d’efforts devraient être investis dans l’amélioration de la robustesse des modèles pour les études d’impact sur le changement climatique, notamment en développant les structures des modèles plus appropriés et en proposant des procédures de calage qui augmentent leur robustesse. Ces travaux permettent d’apporter une réponse détaillée sur notre capacité à réaliser un diagnostic des impacts des changements climatiques sur les ressources hydriques du bassin Au Saumon et de proposer une démarche méthodologique originale d’analyse pouvant être directement appliquée ou adaptée à d’autres contextes hydro-climatiques.

A comparative approach to web evaluation and website evaluation methods.

There is still a lack of an engineering approach for building Web systems, and the field of measuring the Web is not yet mature. In particular, there is an uncertainty in the selection of evaluation methods, and there are risks of standardizing inadequate evaluation practices. It is important to know whether we are evaluating the Web or specific website(s). We need a new categorization system, a different focus on evaluation methods, and an in-depth analysis that reveals the strengths and weaknesses of each method. As a contribution to the field of Web evaluation, this study proposes a novel approach to view and select evaluation methods based on the purpose and platforms of the evaluation. It has been shown that the choice of the appropriate evaluation method(s) depends greatly on the purpose of the evaluation.

Evaluation use within a humanitarian non-governmental organization’s health care user-fee exemption program in West Africa

L’évaluation de l’action humanitaire (ÉAH) est un outil valorisé pour soutenir l’imputabilité, la transparence et l’efficience de programmes humanitaires contribuant à diminuer les inéquités et à promouvoir la santé mondiale. L’EAH est incontournable pour les parties prenantes de programme, les bailleurs de fonds, décideurs et intervenants souhaitant intégrer les données probantes aux pratiques et à la prise de décisions. Cependant, l’utilisation de l’évaluation (UÉ) reste incertaine, l’ÉAH étant fréquemment menée, mais inutilisé. Aussi, les conditions influençant l’UÉ varient selon les contextes et leur présence et applicabilité au sein d’organisations non-gouvernementales (ONG) humanitaires restent peu documentées. Les évaluateurs, parties prenantes et décideurs en contexte humanitaire souhaitant assurer l’UÉ pérenne détiennent peu de repères puisque rares sont les études examinant l’UÉ et ses conditions à long terme. La présente thèse tend à clarifier ces enjeux en documentant sur une période de deux ans l’UÉ et les conditions qui la détermine, au sein d’une stratégie d’évaluation intégrée au programme d’exemption de paiement des soins de santé d’une ONG humanitaire. L’objectif de ce programme est de faciliter l’accès à la santé aux mères, aux enfants de moins de cinq ans et aux indigents de districts sanitaires au Niger et au Burkina Faso, régions du Sahel où des crises alimentaires et économiques ont engendré des taux élevés de malnutrition, de morbidité et de mortalité. Une première évaluation du programme d’exemption au Niger a mené au développement de la stratégie d’évaluation intégrée à ce même programme au Burkina Faso. La thèse se compose de trois articles. Le premier présente une étude d’évaluabilité, étape préliminaire à la thèse et permettant de juger de sa faisabilité. Les résultats démontrent une logique cohérente et plausible de la stratégie d’évaluation, l’accessibilité de données et l’utilité d’étudier l’UÉ par l’ONG. Le second article documente l’UÉ des parties prenantes de la stratégie et comment celle-ci servit le programme d’exemption. L’utilisation des résultats fut instrumentale, conceptuelle et persuasive, alors que l’utilisation des processus ne fut qu’instrumentale et conceptuelle. Le troisième article documente les conditions qui, selon les parties prenantes, ont progressivement influencé l’UÉ. L’attitude des utilisateurs, les relations et communications interpersonnelles et l’habileté des évaluateurs à mener et à partager les connaissances adaptées aux besoins des utilisateurs furent les conditions clés liées à l’UÉ. La thèse contribue à l’avancement des connaissances sur l’UÉ en milieu humanitaire et apporte des recommandations aux parties prenantes de l’ONG.

Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model

Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95% credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation, reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd.

Determinants of Terminal Value in the Evaluation of Companies: A Panel Data Approach to the Context of European Companies.

The uncertainty of the future of a firm has to be modelled and incorporated into the evaluation of companies outside their explicit period of analysis, i.e., in the continuing or terminal value considered within valuation models. However, there is a multiplicity of factors that influence the continuing value of businesses which are not currently being considered within valuation models. In fact, ignoring these factors may cause significant errors of judgment, which can lead models to values of goodwill or badwill, far from the substantial value of the inherent assets. Consequently, these results provided will be markedly different from market values. So, why not consider alternative models incorporating life expectancy of companies, as well as the influence of other attributes of the company in order to get a smoother adjustment between market price and valuation methods? This study aims to provide a contribution towards this area, having as its main objective the analysis of potential determinants of firm value in the long term. Using a sample of 714 listed companies, belonging to 15 European countries, and a panel data for the period between 1992 and 2011, our results show that continuing value cannot be regarded as the current value of a constant or growth perpetuity of a particular attribute of the company, but instead be according to a set of attributes such as free cash flow, net income, the average life expectancy of the company, investment in R&D, capabilities and quality of management, liquidity and financing structure.