Robust Controller Design of Networked Control Systems with Nonlinear Uncertainties

We address robust stabilization problem for networked control systems with nonlinear uncertainties and packet losses by modelling such systems as a class of uncertain switched systems. Based on theories on switched Lyapunov functions, we derive the robustly stabilizing conditions for state feedback stabilization and design packet-loss dependent controllers by solving some matrix inequalities. A numerical example and some simulations are worked out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed design method.

Multi-objective mission flight planning in civil unmanned aerial systems

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are emerging as an ideal platform for a wide range of civil applications such as disaster monitoring, atmospheric observation and outback delivery. However, the operation of UAVs is currently restricted to specially segregated regions of airspace outside of the National Airspace System (NAS). Mission Flight Planning (MFP) is an integral part of UAV operation that addresses some of the requirements (such as safety and the rules of the air) of integrating UAVs in the NAS. Automated MFP is a key enabler for a number of UAV operating scenarios as it aids in increasing the level of onboard autonomy. For example, onboard MFP is required to ensure continued conformance with the NAS integration requirements when there is an outage in the communications link. MFP is a motion planning task concerned with finding a path between a designated start waypoint and goal waypoint. This path is described with a sequence of 4 Dimensional (4D) waypoints (three spatial and one time dimension) or equivalently with a sequence of trajectory segments (or tracks). It is necessary to consider the time dimension as the UAV operates in a dynamic environment. Existing methods for generic motion planning, UAV motion planning and general vehicle motion planning cannot adequately address the requirements of MFP. The flight plan needs to optimise for multiple decision objectives including mission safety objectives, the rules of the air and mission efficiency objectives. Online (in-flight) replanning capability is needed as the UAV operates in a large, dynamic and uncertain outdoor environment. This thesis derives a multi-objective 4D search algorithm entitled Multi- Step A* (MSA*) based on the seminal A* search algorithm. MSA* is proven to find the optimal (least cost) path given a variable successor operator (which enables arbitrary track angle and track velocity resolution). Furthermore, it is shown to be of comparable complexity to multi-objective, vector neighbourhood based A* (Vector A*, an extension of A*). A variable successor operator enables the imposition of a multi-resolution lattice structure on the search space (which results in fewer search nodes). Unlike cell decomposition based methods, soundness is guaranteed with multi-resolution MSA*. MSA* is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations to be computationally efficient. It is shown that multi-resolution, lattice based MSA* finds paths of equivalent cost (less than 0.5% difference) to Vector A* (the benchmark) in a third of the computation time (on average). This is the first contribution of the research. The second contribution is the discovery of the additive consistency property for planning with multiple decision objectives. Additive consistency ensures that the planner is not biased (which results in a suboptimal path) by ensuring that the cost of traversing a track using one step equals that of traversing the same track using multiple steps. MSA* mitigates uncertainty through online replanning, Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and tolerance. Each trajectory segment is modeled with a cell sequence that completely encloses the trajectory segment. The tolerance, measured as the minimum distance between the track and cell boundaries, is the third major contribution. Even though MSA* is demonstrated for UAV MFP, it is extensible to other 4D vehicle motion planning applications. Finally, the research proposes a self-scheduling replanning architecture for MFP. This architecture replicates the decision strategies of human experts to meet the time constraints of online replanning. Based on a feedback loop, the proposed architecture switches between fast, near-optimal planning and optimal planning to minimise the need for hold manoeuvres. The derived MFP framework is original and shown, through extensive verification and validation, to satisfy the requirements of UAV MFP. As MFP is an enabling factor for operation of UAVs in the NAS, the presented work is both original and significant.

QoC Elastic Scheduling for Real-Time Control Systems

The elastic task model, a significant development in scheduling of real-time control tasks, provides a mechanism for flexible workload management in uncertain environments. It tells how to adjust the control periods to fulfill the workload constraints. However, it is not directly linked to the quality-of-control (QoC) management, the ultimate goal of a control system. As a result, it does not tell how to make the best use of the system resources to maximize the QoC improvement. To fill in this gap, a new feedback scheduling framework, which we refer to as QoC elastic scheduling, is developed in this paper for real-time process control systems. It addresses the QoC directly through embedding both the QoC management and workload adaptation into a constrained optimization problem. The resulting solution for period adjustment is in a closed-form expressed in QoC measurements, enabling closed-loop feedback of the QoC to the task scheduler. Whenever the QoC elastic scheduler is activated, it improves the QoC the most while still meeting the system constraints. Examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the QoC elastic scheduling.

An infinite-horizon robust filter for uncertain hidden Markov Models with conditional relative entropy constraints

We consider a robust filtering problem for uncertain discrete-time, homogeneous, first-order, finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). The class of uncertain HMMs considered is described by a conditional relative entropy constraint on measures perturbed from a nominal regular conditional probability distribution given the previous posterior state distribution and the latest measurement. Under this class of perturbations, a robust infinite horizon filtering problem is first formulated as a constrained optimization problem before being transformed via variational results into an unconstrained optimization problem; the latter can be elegantly solved using a risk-sensitive information-state based filtering.

Bayesian networks for information synthesis in complex systems

This thesis introduces a method of applying Bayesian Networks to combine information from a range of data sources for effective decision support systems. It develops a set of techniques in development, validation, visualisation, and application of Complex Systems models, with a working demonstration in an Australian airport environment. The methods presented here have provided a modelling approach that produces highly flexible, informative and applicable interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions. These end-to-end techniques are applied to the development of model based dashboards to support operators and decision makers in the multi-stakeholder airport environment. They provide highly flexible and informative interpretations and confidence in these interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions.

Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.

Representation of evidence: An approach to uncertainty handling in knowledge-based systems

Many knowledge based systems (KBS) transform a situation information into an appropriate decision using an in built knowledge base. As the knowledge in real world situation is often uncertain, the degree of truth of a proposition provides a measure of uncertainty in the underlying knowledge. This uncertainty can be evaluated by collecting `evidence' about the truth or falsehood of the proposition from multiple sources. In this paper we propose a simple framework for representing uncertainty in using the notion of an evidence space.

Distributed optimization in power networks and general multi-agent systems

The dissertation studies the general area of complex networked systems that consist of interconnected and active heterogeneous components and usually operate in uncertain environments and with incomplete information. Problems associated with those systems are typically large-scale and computationally intractable, yet they are also very well-structured and have features that can be exploited by appropriate modeling and computational methods. The goal of this thesis is to develop foundational theories and tools to exploit those structures that can lead to computationally-efficient and distributed solutions, and apply them to improve systems operations and architecture.

Specifically, the thesis focuses on two concrete areas. The first one is to design distributed rules to manage distributed energy resources in the power network. The power network is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The future smart grid, especially on the distribution system, will be a large-scale network of distributed energy resources (DERs), each introducing random and rapid fluctuations in power supply, demand, voltage and frequency. These DERs provide a tremendous opportunity for sustainability, efficiency, and power reliability. However, there are daunting technical challenges in managing these DERs and optimizing their operation. The focus of this dissertation is to develop scalable, distributed, and real-time control and optimization to achieve system-wide efficiency, reliability, and robustness for the future power grid. In particular, we will present how to explore the power network structure to design efficient and distributed market and algorithms for the energy management. We will also show how to connect the algorithms with physical dynamics and existing control mechanisms for real-time control in power networks.

The second focus is to develop distributed optimization rules for general multi-agent engineering systems. A central goal in multiagent systems is to design local control laws for the individual agents to ensure that the emergent global behavior is desirable with respect to the given system level objective. Ideally, a system designer seeks to satisfy this goal while conditioning each agent’s control on the least amount of information possible. Our work focused on achieving this goal using the framework of game theory. In particular, we derived a systematic methodology for designing local agent objective functions that guarantees (i) an equivalence between the resulting game-theoretic equilibria and the system level design objective and (ii) that the resulting game possesses an inherent structure that can be exploited for distributed learning, e.g., potential games. The control design can then be completed by applying any distributed learning algorithm that guarantees convergence to the game-theoretic equilibrium. One main advantage of this game theoretic approach is that it provides a hierarchical decomposition between the decomposition of the systemic objective (game design) and the specific local decision rules (distributed learning algorithms). This decomposition provides the system designer with tremendous flexibility to meet the design objectives and constraints inherent in a broad class of multiagent systems. Furthermore, in many settings the resulting controllers will be inherently robust to a host of uncertainties including asynchronous clock rates, delays in information, and component failures.

Control of dynamical systems with temporal logic specifications

This thesis is motivated by safety-critical applications involving autonomous air, ground, and space vehicles carrying out complex tasks in uncertain and adversarial environments. We use temporal logic as a language to formally specify complex tasks and system properties. Temporal logic specifications generalize the classical notions of stability and reachability that are studied in the control and hybrid systems communities. Given a system model and a formal task specification, the goal is to automatically synthesize a control policy for the system that ensures that the system satisfies the specification. This thesis presents novel control policy synthesis algorithms for optimal and robust control of dynamical systems with temporal logic specifications. Furthermore, it introduces algorithms that are efficient and extend to high-dimensional dynamical systems.

The first contribution of this thesis is the generalization of a classical linear temporal logic (LTL) control synthesis approach to optimal and robust control. We show how we can extend automata-based synthesis techniques for discrete abstractions of dynamical systems to create optimal and robust controllers that are guaranteed to satisfy an LTL specification. Such optimal and robust controllers can be computed at little extra computational cost compared to computing a feasible controller.

The second contribution of this thesis addresses the scalability of control synthesis with LTL specifications. A major limitation of the standard automaton-based approach for control with LTL specifications is that the automaton might be doubly-exponential in the size of the LTL specification. We introduce a fragment of LTL for which one can compute feasible control policies in time polynomial in the size of the system and specification. Additionally, we show how to compute optimal control policies for a variety of cost functions, and identify interesting cases when this can be done in polynomial time. These techniques are particularly relevant for online control, as one can guarantee that a feasible solution can be found quickly, and then iteratively improve on the quality as time permits.

The final contribution of this thesis is a set of algorithms for computing feasible trajectories for high-dimensional, nonlinear systems with LTL specifications. These algorithms avoid a potentially computationally-expensive process of computing a discrete abstraction, and instead compute directly on the system's continuous state space. The first method uses an automaton representing the specification to directly encode a series of constrained-reachability subproblems, which can be solved in a modular fashion by using standard techniques. The second method encodes an LTL formula as mixed-integer linear programming constraints on the dynamical system. We demonstrate these approaches with numerical experiments on temporal logic motion planning problems with high-dimensional (10+ states) continuous systems.

A probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in nonlinear dynamical systems

In this work, computationally efficient approximate methods are developed for analyzing uncertain dynamical systems. Uncertainties in both the excitation and the modeling are considered and examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the proposed approximations.

For nonlinear systems under uncertain excitation, methods are developed to approximate the stationary probability density function and statistical quantities of interest. The methods are based on approximating solutions to the Fokker-Planck equation for the system and differ from traditional methods in which approximate solutions to stochastic differential equations are found. The new methods require little computational effort and examples are presented for which the accuracy of the proposed approximations compare favorably to results obtained by existing methods. The most significant improvements are made in approximating quantities related to the extreme values of the response, such as expected outcrossing rates, which are crucial for evaluating the reliability of the system.

Laplace's method of asymptotic approximation is applied to approximate the probability integrals which arise when analyzing systems with modeling uncertainty. The asymptotic approximation reduces the problem of evaluating a multidimensional integral to solving a minimization problem and the results become asymptotically exact as the uncertainty in the modeling goes to zero. The method is found to provide good approximations for the moments and outcrossing rates for systems with uncertain parameters under stochastic excitation, even when there is a large amount of uncertainty in the parameters. The method is also applied to classical reliability integrals, providing approximations in both the transformed (independently, normally distributed) variables and the original variables. In the transformed variables, the asymptotic approximation yields a very simple formula for approximating the value of SORM integrals. In many cases, it may be computationally expensive to transform the variables, and an approximation is also developed in the original variables. Examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the approximations and results are compared with existing approximations.

Dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters

This thesis presents a technique for obtaining the response of linear structural systems with parameter uncertainties subjected to either deterministic or random excitation. The parameter uncertainties are modeled as random variables or random fields, and are assumed to be time-independent. The new method is an extension of the deterministic finite element method to the space of random functions.

First, the general formulation of the method is developed, in the case where the excitation is deterministic in time. Next, the application of this formulation to systems satisfying the one-dimensional wave equation with uncertainty in their physical properties is described. A particular physical conceptualization of this equation is chosen for study, and some engineering applications are discussed in both an earthquake ground motion and a structural context.

Finally, the formulation of the new method is extended to include cases where the excitation is random in time. Application of this formulation to the random response of a primary-secondary system is described. It is found that parameter uncertainties can have a strong effect on the system response characteristics.

Min-Max Moving Horizon Estimation for a Class of Hybrid Systems

In this paper, a strategy for min-max Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE) of a class of uncertain hybrid systems is proposed. The class of hybrid systems being considered are Piecewise Affine systems (PWA) with both continuous valued and logic components. Furthermore, we consider the case when there is a (possibly structured) norm bounded uncertainty in each subsystem. Sufficient conditions on the time horizon and the penalties on the state at the beginning of the estimation horizon to guarantee convergence of the MHE scheme will be provided. The MHE scheme will be implemented as a mixed integer semidefinite optimisation for which an efficient algorithm was recently introduced.

Fusion rules for merging uncertain information

In previous papers, we have presented a logic-based framework based on fusion rules for merging structured news reports. Structured news reports are XML documents, where the textentries are restricted to individual words or simple phrases, such as names and domain-specific terminology, and numbers and units. We assume structured news reports do not require natural language processing. Fusion rules are a form of scripting language that define how structured news reports should be merged. The antecedent of a fusion rule is a call to investigate the information in the structured news reports and the background knowledge, and the consequent of a fusion rule is a formula specifying an action to be undertaken to form a merged report. It is expected that a set of fusion rules is defined for any given application. In this paper we extend the approach to handling probability values, degrees of beliefs, or necessity measures associated with textentries in the news reports. We present the formal definition for each of these types of uncertainty and explain how they can be handled using fusion rules. We also discuss the methods of detecting inconsistencies among sources.