The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill.

Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Enabling cloud computing in emergency management systems

Emergencies, including both natural and man - made disasters, increasingly pose an immediate threat to life, health, property, and environment. For example, Hurricane Katrina, the deadliest and most destructive Atlantic tropical cyclone of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, led to at least 1,883 people's death and an estimated loss of - 108 billion property. To reduce the damage by emergencies, a wide range of cutting-edge technologies on medicine and information are used in all phases of emergency management. This article proposes a cloud-based emergency management system for environmental and structural monitoring that utilizes the powerful computing and storage capability of datacenters to analyze the mass data collected by the wireless intelligent sensor network deployed in civil environment. The system also benefits from smartphone and social network platform to setup the spatial and population models, which enables faster evacuation and better resource allocation.

The use of remote sensing imagery for monitoring recovery in the aftermath of a natural disaster: the Hurricane Katrina Case

Although Recovery is often defined as the less studied and documented phase of the Emergency Management Cycle, a wide literature is available for describing characteristics and sub-phases of this process. Previous works do not allow to gain an overall perspective because of a lack of systematic consistent monitoring of recovery utilizing advanced technologies such as remote sensing and GIS technologies. Taking into consideration the key role of Remote Sensing in Response and Damage Assessment, this thesis is aimed to verify the appropriateness of such advanced monitoring techniques to detect recovery advancements over time, with close attention to the main characteristics of the study event: Hurricane Katrina storm surge. Based on multi-source, multi-sensor and multi-temporal data, the post-Katrina recovery was analysed using both a qualitative and a quantitative approach. The first phase was dedicated to the investigation of the relation between urban types, damage and recovery state, referring to geographical and technological parameters. Damage and recovery scales were proposed to review critical observations on remarkable surge- induced effects on various typologies of structures, analyzed at a per-building level. This wide-ranging investigation allowed a new understanding of the distinctive features of the recovery process. A quantitative analysis was employed to develop methodological procedures suited to recognize and monitor distribution, timing and characteristics of recovery activities in the study area. Promising results, gained by applying supervised classification algorithms to detect localization and distribution of blue tarp, have proved that this methodology may help the analyst in the detection and monitoring of recovery activities in areas that have been affected by medium damage. The study found that Mahalanobis Distance was the classifier which provided the most accurate results, in localising blue roofs with 93.7% of blue roof classified correctly and a producer accuracy of 70%. It was seen to be the classifier least sensitive to spectral signature alteration. The application of the dissimilarity textural classification to satellite imagery has demonstrated the suitability of this technique for the detection of debris distribution and for the monitoring of demolition and reconstruction activities in the study area. Linking these geographically extensive techniques with expert per-building interpretation of advanced-technology ground surveys provides a multi-faceted view of the physical recovery process. Remote sensing and GIS technologies combined to advanced ground survey approach provides extremely valuable capability in Recovery activities monitoring and may constitute a technical basis to lead aid organization and local government in the Recovery management.

Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

The Samoa Hurricane, 15-16 March 1889

Analysing historical weather extremes such as the tropical cyclone in Samoa in March 1889 could add to our understanding of extreme events. However, up to now the availability of suitable data was limiting the analysis of historical extremes, particularly in remote regions. The new “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR), which provides six-hourly, three-dimensional data for the entire globe back to 1871, might provide the means to study this and other early events. While its suitability for studying historical extremes has been analysed for events in the northern extratropics (see other papers in this volume), the representation of tropical cyclones, especially in early times, remains unknown. The aim of this paper is to study to the hurricane that struck Samoa on 15-16 March 1889. We analyse the event in 20CR as well as in contemporary observations. We find that the event is not reproduced in the ensemble mean of 20CR, nor is it within the ensemble spread. We argue that this is due to the paucity of data assimilated into 20CR. A preliminary compilation of historical observations from ships for that period, in contrast, provides a relatively consistent picture of the event. This shows that more observations would be available and implies that future versions of surface-based reanalyses might profit from digitizing further observations in the tropical region.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

The International Surface Pressure Databank version 2

The International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) is the world's largest collection of global surface and sea-level pressure observations. It was developed by extracting observations from established international archives, through international cooperation with data recovery facilitated by the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative, and directly by contributing universities, organizations, and countries. The dataset period is currently 1768–2012 and consists of three data components: observations from land stations, marine observing systems, and tropical cyclone best track pressure reports. Version 2 of the ISPD (ISPDv2) was created to be observational input for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) and contains the quality control and assimilation feedback metadata from the 20CR. Since then, it has been used for various general climate and weather studies, and an updated version 3 (ISPDv3) has been used in the ERA-20C reanalysis in connection with the European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations project (ERA-CLIM). The focus of this paper is on the ISPDv2 and the inclusion of the 20CR feedback metadata. The Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research provides data collection and access for the ISPDv2, and will provide access to future versions.

Standardized rainfall indices for the West and Central Sahel, and the Guinea Coast

For years, various indices of seasonal West African precipitation have served as useful predictors of the overall tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Since the mid-1990s, the correlation unexpectedly deteriorated. In the present study, statistical techniques are developed to describe the nonstationary nature of the correlations between annual measures of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and three selected West African precipitation indices (namely, western Sahelian precipitation in June-September, central Sahelian precipitation in June-September, and Guinean coastal precipitation in the preceding year's August-November period). The correlations between these parameters are found to vary over the period from 1921 to 2007 on a range of time scales. Additionally, considerable year-to-year variability in the strength of these correlations is documented by selecting subsamples of years with respect to various meteorological factors. Broadly, in years when the environment in the main development region is generally favorable for enhanced tropical cyclogenesis (e.g., when sea surface temperatures are high, when there is relatively little wind shear through the depth of the troposphere, or when the relative vorticity in the midtroposphere is anomalously high), the correlations between indices of West African monsoon precipitation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity are considerably weaker than in years when the overall conditions in the region are less conducive. Other more remote climate parameters, such as the phase of the Southern Oscillation, are less effective at modulating the nature of these interactions.

Component analysis of three TV-guided grab sampler from the Sahul Shelf (NW Australia)

This paper constitutes a first detailed and systematic facies and biota description of an isolated carbonate knoll (Pee Shoal) in the Timor Sea (Sahul Shelf, NW Australia). The steep and flat-topped knoll is characterized by a distinct facies zonation comprising (A) soft sediments with scattered debris and scarce sponges, hydrozoans and crinoids (320-210 m water depth), (B) hardground outcrops (step-like banks, vertical cliffs) that are mainly colonized by octocorals and sponges (210-75 m), and (C) the summit region (75-21 m) where the slopes merge gently into the flat-topped summit that is densely colonized by massive and encrusting zooxanthellate corals and the octocoral Heliopora coerulea. In contrast, the sediments recovered from the summit are dominated by the green alga Halimeda, subordinate components are corals, benthic foraminifers, mollusks, and coralline red algae. Thus, the sediments are classified as chlorozoan grain assemblage. However, non-skeletal grains (fecal pellets, ooids) are almost completely absent. This discrepancy between the living biota and the sediment composition could reflect a disruption by the severe tropical cyclone Ingrid that hit the northern Australian shelf in March 2005, just before the sampling for this study took place (September 2005).

Change in abundance of dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo and Exmouth Gulf, Western Australia: evidence for large-scale migration

The third in a series of five-yearly aerial surveys for dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf was conducted in July 1999. The first two surveys provided evidence of an apparently stable population of dugongs, with similar to 1000 animals in each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef, and 10000 in Shark Bay. We report estimates of less than 200 for each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef and similar to 14000 for Shark Bay. This is an apparent overall increase in the dugong population over this whole region, but with a distributional shift of animals to the south. The most plausible hypothesis to account for a large component of this apparent population shift is that animals in Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef moved to Shark Bay, most likely after Tropical Cyclone Vance impacted available dugong forage in the northern habitat. Bias associated with survey estimate methodology, and normal changes in population demographics may also have contributed to the change. The movement of large numbers of dugongs over the scale we suggest has important management implications. First, such habitat-driven shifts in regional abundance will need to be incorporated in assessing the effectiveness of marine protected areas that aim to protect dugongs and their habitat. Second, in circumstances where aerial surveys are used to estimate relative trends in abundance of dugongs, animal movements of the type we propose could lead to errors in interpretation.

Storm cycles in the last millennium recorded in Yongshu Reef, southern South China Sea

Large storm-relocated Porites coral blocks are widespread on the reef flats of Nansha area, southern South China Sea. Detailed investigations of coral reef ecology, geomorphology and sedimentation on Yongshu Reef indicate that such storm-relocated blocks originated from large Porites lutea corals growing on the spurs within the reef-front living coral zone. Because the coral reef has experienced sustained subsidence and reef development during the Holocene, dead corals were continuously covered by newly growing coral colonies. For this reason, the coral blocks must have been relocated by storms from the living sites and therefore the ages of these storm-relocated corals should approximate the times when the storms occurred. Rapid emplacement of these blocks is also evidenced by the lack of coral overgrowth, encrustation or subtidal alteration. U-series dating of the storm-relocated blocks as well as of in situ reef flat corals suggests that, during the last 1000 years, at least six strong storms occurred in 1064 +/- 30, 1210 +/- 5-1201 +/- 4, 1336 +/- 9, 1443 +/- 9, 1685 +/- 8-1680 +/- 6, 1872 +/- 15 AD, respectively, with an average 160-year cycle (110-240 years). The last storm, which occurred in 1872 15 AD, also led to mortality of the reef flat corals dated at similar to 130 years ago. Thus, the storm had significant impacts on coral reef ecology and morphology. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of test-based wind-driven rain intrusion model for hurricane-induced building interior and contents damage

Major portion of hurricane-induced economic loss originates from damages to building structures. The damages on building structures are typically grouped into three main categories: exterior, interior, and contents damage. Although the latter two types of damages, in most cases, cause more than 50% of the total loss, little has been done to investigate the physical damage process and unveil the interdependence of interior damage parameters. Building interior and contents damages are mainly due to wind-driven rain (WDR) intrusion through building envelope defects, breaches, and other functional openings. The limitation of research works and subsequent knowledge gaps, are in most part due to the complexity of damage phenomena during hurricanes and lack of established measurement methodologies to quantify rainwater intrusion. This dissertation focuses on devising methodologies for large-scale experimental simulation of tropical cyclone WDR and measurements of rainwater intrusion to acquire benchmark test-based data for the development of hurricane-induced building interior and contents damage model. Target WDR parameters derived from tropical cyclone rainfall data were used to simulate the WDR characteristics at the Wall of Wind (WOW) facility. The proposed WDR simulation methodology presents detailed procedures for selection of type and number of nozzles formulated based on tropical cyclone WDR study. The simulated WDR was later used to experimentally investigate the mechanisms of rainwater deposition/intrusion in buildings. Test-based dataset of two rainwater intrusion parameters that quantify the distribution of direct impinging raindrops and surface runoff rainwater over building surface — rain admittance factor (RAF) and surface runoff coefficient (SRC), respectively —were developed using common shapes of low-rise buildings. The dataset was applied to a newly formulated WDR estimation model to predict the volume of rainwater ingress through envelope openings such as wall and roof deck breaches and window sill cracks. The validation of the new model using experimental data indicated reasonable estimation of rainwater ingress through envelope defects and breaches during tropical cyclones. The WDR estimation model and experimental dataset of WDR parameters developed in this dissertation work can be used to enhance the prediction capabilities of existing interior damage models such as the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM).^

Aerodynamic Load Characteristics Evaluation and Tri-Axial Performance Testing on Fiber Reinforced Polymer Connections and Metal Fasteners to Promote Hurricane Damage Mitigation

Damages during extreme wind events highlight the weaknesses of mechanical fasteners at the roof-to-wall connections in residential timber frame buildings. The allowable capacity of the metal fasteners is based on results of unidirectional component testing that do not simulate realistic tri-axial aerodynamic loading effects. The first objective of this research was to simulate hurricane effects and study hurricane-structure interaction at full-scale, facilitating better understanding of the combined impacts of wind, rain, and debris on inter-component connections at spatial and temporal scales. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of a non-intrusive roof-to-wall connection system using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials and compare its load capacity to the capacity of an existing metal fastener under simulated aerodynamic loads. The Wall of Wind (WoW) testing performed using FRP connections on a one-story gable-roof timber structure instrumented with a variety of sensors, was used to create a database on aerodynamic and aero-hydrodynamic loading on roof-to-wall connections tested under several parameters: angles of attack, wind-turbulence content, internal pressure conditions, with and without effects of rain. Based on the aerodynamic loading results obtained from WoW tests, sets of three force components (tri-axial mean loads) were combined into a series of resultant mean forces, which were used to test the FRP and metal connections in the structures laboratory up to failure. A new component testing system and test protocol were developed for testing fasteners under simulated tri-axial loading as opposed to uni-axial loading. The tri-axial and uni-axial test results were compared for hurricane clips. Also, comparison was made between tri-axial load capacity of FRP and metal connections. The research findings demonstrate that the FRP connection is a viable option for use in timber roof-to-wall connection system. Findings also confirm that current testing methods of mechanical fasteners tend to overestimate the actual load capacities of a connector. Additionally, the research also contributes to the development a new testing protocol for fasteners using tri-axial simultaneous loads based on the aerodynamic database obtained from the WoW testing.

Age determination of North Atlantic sediment cores

Available overwash records from coastal barrier systems document significant variability in North Atlantic hurricane activity during the late Holocene. The same climate forcings that may have controlled cyclone activity over this interval (e.g., the West African Monsoon, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) show abrupt changes around 6000 yrs B.P., but most coastal sedimentary records do not span this time period. Establishing longer records is essential for understanding mid-Holocene patterns of storminess and their climatic drivers, which will lead to better forecasting of how climate change over the next century may affect tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Storms are thought to be an important mechanism for transporting coarse sediment from shallow carbonate platforms to the deep-sea, and bank-edge sediments may offer an unexplored archive of long-term hurricane activity. Here, we develop this new approach, reconstructing more than 7000 years of North Atlantic hurricane variability using coarse-grained deposits in sediment cores from the leeward margin of the Great Bahama Bank. High energy event layers within the resulting archive are (1) broadly correlated throughout an offbank transect of multi-cores, (2) closely matched with historic hurricane events, and (3) synchronous with previous intervals of heightened North Atlantic hurricane activity in overwash reconstructions from Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Bahamas. Lower storm frequency prior to 4400 yrs B.P. in our records suggests that precession and increased NH summer insolation may have greatly limited hurricane potential intensity, outweighing weakened ENSO and a stronger West African Monsoon-factors thought to be favorable for hurricane development.