Comparison of stochastic parameterisation approaches in a single-column model

We discuss and test the potential usefulness of single-column models (SCMs) for the testing of stochastic physics schemes that have been proposed for use in general circulation models (GCMs). We argue that although single column tests cannot be definitive in exposing the full behaviour of a stochastic method in the full GCM, and although there are differences between SCM testing of deterministic and stochastic methods, SCM testing remains a useful tool. It is necessary to consider an ensemble of SCM runs produced by the stochastic method. These can be usefully compared to deterministic ensembles describing initial condition uncertainty and also to combinations of these (with structural model changes) into poor man's ensembles. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an SCM experiment recently developed by the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) community, simulating transitions between active and suppressed periods of tropical convection.

View-based approaches to spatial representation in human vision

In an immersive virtual environment, observers fail to notice the expansion of a room around them and consequently make gross errors when comparing the size of objects. This result is difficult to explain if the visual system continuously generates a 3-D model of the scene based on known baseline information from interocular separation or proprioception as the observer walks. An alternative is that observers use view-based methods to guide their actions and to represent the spatial layout of the scene. In this case, they may have an expectation of the images they will receive but be insensitive to the rate at which images arrive as they walk. We describe the way in which the eye movement strategy of animals simplifies motion processing if their goal is to move towards a desired image and discuss dorsal and ventral stream processing of moving images in that context. Although many questions about view-based approaches to scene representation remain unanswered, the solutions are likely to be highly relevant to understanding biological 3-D vision.

The significance of insecure attachment and disorganization in the development of children's externalizing behavior: A meta-analytic study

This study addresses the extent to which insecure and disorganized attachments increase risk for externalizing problems using meta-analysis. From 69 samples (N = 5,947), the association between insecurity and externalizing problems was significant, d = 0.31 (95% CI: 0.23, 0.40). Larger effects were found for boys (d = 0.35), clinical samples (d = 0.49), and from observation-based outcome assessments (d = 0.58). Larger effects were found for attachment assessments other than the Strange Situation. Overall, disorganized children appeared at elevated risk (d = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.18, 0.50), with weaker effects for avoidance (d = 0.12, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.21) and resistance (d = 0.11, 95% CI: −0.04, 0.26). The results are discussed in terms of the potential significance of attachment for mental health.

A comparison of extreme value theory approaches for determining value at risk

This paper compares a number of different extreme value models for determining the value at risk (VaR) of three LIFFE futures contracts. A semi-nonparametric approach is also proposed, where the tail events are modeled using the generalised Pareto distribution, and normal market conditions are captured by the empirical distribution function. The value at risk estimates from this approach are compared with those of standard nonparametric extreme value tail estimation approaches, with a small sample bias-corrected extreme value approach, and with those calculated from bootstrapping the unconditional density and bootstrapping from a GARCH(1,1) model. The results indicate that, for a holdout sample, the proposed semi-nonparametric extreme value approach yields superior results to other methods, but the small sample tail index technique is also accurate.

Real options and game theoretical approaches to real estate development projects: multiple equilibria and the implications of different tie-breaking rules

This paper contributes to a fast growing literature which introduces game theory in the analysis of real option investments in a competitive setting. Specifically, in this paper we focus on the issue of multiple equilibria and on the implications that different equilibrium selections may have for the pricing of real options and for subsequent strategic decisions. We present some theoretical results of the necessary conditions to have multiple equilibria and we show under which conditions different tie-breaking rules result in different economic decisions. We then present a numerical exercise using the in formation set obtained on a real estate development in South London. We find that risk aversion reduces option value and this reduction decreases marginally as negative externalities decrease.

New governance approaches to environmental regulation: an example of the Code for Sustainable Homes (CSH)

Environmental policy in the United Kingdom (UK) is witnessing a shift from command-and-control approaches towards more innovation-orientated environmental governance arrangements. These governance approaches are required which create institutions which support actors within a domain for learning not only about policy options, but also about their own interests and preferences. The need for construction actors to understand, engage and influence this process is critical to establishing policies which support innovation that satisfies each constituent’s needs. This capacity is particularly salient in an era where the expanding raft of environmental regulation is ushering in system-wide innovation in the construction sector. In this paper, the Code for Sustainable Homes (the Code) in the UK is used to demonstrate the emergence and operation of these new governance arrangements. The Code sets out a significant innovation challenge for the house-building sector with, for example, a requirement that all new houses must be zero-carbon by 2016. Drawing upon boundary organisation theory, the journey from the Code as a government aspiration, to the Code as a catalyst for the formation of the Zero Carbon Hub, a new institution, is traced and discussed. The case study reveals that the ZCH has demonstrated boundary organisation properties in its ability to be flexible to the needs and constraints of its constituent actors, yet robust enough to maintain and promote a common identity across regulation and industry boundaries.

Mapping evidence gaps in anti-corruption: assessing the state of the operationally relevant evidence on donors' actions and approaches to reducing corruption

This paper charts the current evidence on effectiveness of different anti-corruption reforms, and identifies significant evidence gaps. Despite a substantial amount of literature on corruption, this review found very few studies focusing on anti-corruption reforms, and even fewer that credibly assess issues of effectiveness and impact. The evidence was strong for only two types of interventions: public financial management (PFM) reforms and supreme audit institutions (SAIs). For PFM, the evidence in general showed positive results, whereas the effectiveness was mixed for SAIs. No strong evidence indicates that any of the interventions pursued have been ineffective, but there is fair evidence that anti-corruption authorities, civil service reforms and the use of corruption conditionality in aid allocation decisions in general have not been effective. The paper advocates more operationally-relevant research and rigorous evaluations to build up the missing evidence base, particularly in conflict-afflicted states, in regards to the private sector, and on the interactions and interdependencies between different anti-corruption interventions.

Measuring European real estate investment performance: A comparison of different approaches

The performance of real estate investment markets is difficult to monitor because the constituent assets are heterogeneous, are traded infrequently and do not trade through a central exchange in which prices can be observed. To address this, appraisal based indices have been developed that use the records of owners for whom buildings are regularly re-valued. These indices provide a practical solution to the measurement problem, but have been criticised for understating volatility and not capturing market turning points in a timely manner. This paper evaluates alternative ‘Transaction Linked Indices’ that are estimated using an extension of the hedonic method for index construction and with Investment Property Databank data. The two types of indices are compared over Q4 2001 to Q4 2012 in order to examine whether movements in these indices are consistent. The Transaction Linked Indices show stronger growth and sharper declines than their appraisal based counterparts over the course of the cycle in different European markets and they are typically two to four times more volatile. However, they have some limitations; for instance, only country level indicators can be published in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied.

Crystal design approaches for the synthesis of paracetamol co-crystals

Crystal engineering principles were used to design three new co-crystals of paracetamol. A variety of potential cocrystal formers were initially identified from a search of the Cambridge Structural Database for molecules with complementary hydrogen-bond forming functionalities. Subsequent screening by powder X-ray diffraction of the products of the reaction of this library of molecules with paracetamol led to the discovery of new binary crystalline phases of paracetamol with trans-1,4- diaminocyclohexane (1); trans-1,4-di(4-pyridyl)ethylene (2); and 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane (3). The co-crystals were characterized by IR spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, and 1H NMR spectroscopy. Single crystal X-ray structure analysis reveals that in all three co-crystals the co-crystal formers (CCF) are hydrogen bonded to the paracetamol molecules through O−H···N interactions. In co-crystals (1) and (2) the CCFs are interleaved between the chains of paracetamol molecules, while in co-crystal (3) there is an additional N−H···N hydrogen bond between the two components. A hierarchy of hydrogen bond formation is observed in which the best donor in the system, the phenolic O−H group of paracetamol, is preferentially hydrogen bonded to the best acceptor, the basic nitrogen atom of the co-crystal former. The geometric aspects of the hydrogen bonds in co-crystals 1−3 are discussed in terms of their electrostatic and charge-transfer components.

Problem-based learning approaches in meteorology

Problem-Based Learning, despite recent controversies about its effectiveness, is used extensively as a teaching method throughout higher education. In meteorology, there has been little attempt to incorporate Problem-Based Learning techniques into the curriculum. Motivated by a desire to enhance the reflective engagement of students within a current field course module, this project describes the implementation of two test Problem-Based Learning activities and testing and improvement using several different and complementary means of evaluation. By the end of a 2-year program of design, implementation, testing, and reflection and re-evaluation, two robust, engaging activities have been developed that provide an enhanced and diverse learning environment in the field course. The results suggest that Problem-Based Learning techniques would be a useful addition to the meteorology curriculum and suggestions for courses and activities that may benefit from this approach are included in the conclusions.