Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.

Multiple support excitations of open-plane frames by a filtered white noise and soil-structure interaction

Seismic structural design is essentially the estimation of structural response to a forced motion, which may be deterministic or stochastic, imposed on the ground. The assumption that the same ground motion acts at every point of the base of the structure (or at every support) is not always justifiable; particularly in case of very large structures when considerable spatial variability in ground motion can exist over significant distances example long span bridges. This variability is partly due to the delay in arrival of the excitation at different supports (which is called the wave passage effect) and due to heterogeneity in the ground medium which results in incoherency and local effects. The current study examines the influence of the wave passage effect (in terms of delay in arrival of horizontal ground excitation at different supports and neglecting transmission through the structure) on the response of a few open-plane frame building structures with soil-structure interaction. The ground acceleration has been modeled by a suitably filtered white noise. As a special case, the ground excitation at different supports has also been treated as statistically independent to model the extreme case of incoherence due to local effects and due to modifications to the ground motion resulting from wave reflections and refractions in heterogeneous soil media. The results indicate that, even for relatively short spanned building frames, wave passage effect can be significant. In the absence of soil-structure interaction, it can significantly increase the root mean square (rms) value of the shear in extreme end columns for the stiffer frames but has negligible effect on the flexible frames when total displacements are considered. It is seen that pseudo-static displacements increasingly contribute to the rms value of column shear as the time delay increases both for the stiffer and for the more flexible frames. When soil-structure interaction is considered, wave passage effect (in terms of total displacements) is significant only for low soil shear modulus, G. values (where soil-structure interaction significantly lowers the fundamental frequency) and for stiff frames. The contribution of pseudo-static displacement to these rms values is found to decrease with increase in G. In general, wave passage effect for most interactive frames is insignificant compared to the attenuating effect a decrease in G, has on the response of the interactive structure to uniform support excitation. When the excitations at different supports are statistically independent, it is seen that for both the stiff and flexible frames, the rms value of the column shear in extreme end columns is several times larger (more for the stiffer frames) than the value corresponding to uniform base excitation with the pseudo-static displacements contributing over 99% of the rms value of column shear. Soil-structure interaction has an attenuating effect on the rms value of the column shear, the effect decreasing with increase in G,. Here too, the pseudo-static displacements contribute very largely to the column shear. The influence of the wave passage effect on the response of three 2-bay frames with and without soil-structure interaction to a recorded horizontal accelerogram is also examined. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fault-tolerant secret key generation

Mobile nodes observing correlated data communicate using an insecure bidirectional switch to generate a secret key, which must remain concealed from the switch. We are interested in fault-tolerant secret key rates, i.e., the rates of secret key generated even if a subset of nodes drop out before the completion of the communication protocol. We formulate a new notion of fault-tolerant secret key capacity, and present an upper bound on it. This upper bound is shown to be tight when the random variables corresponding to the observations of nodes are exchangeable. Further, it is shown that one round of interaction achieves the fault-tolerant secret key capacity in this case. The upper bound is also tight for the case of a pairwise independent network model consisting of a complete graph, and can be attained by a noninteractive protocol.

A Multi-phase Approach for Improving Information Diffusion in Social Networks

For maximizing influence spread in a social network, given a certain budget on the number of seed nodes, we investigate the effects of selecting and activating the seed nodes in multiple phases. In particular, we formulate an appropriate objective function for two-phase influence maximization under the independent cascade model, investigate its properties, and propose algorithms for determining the seed nodes in the two phases. We also study the problem of determining an optimal budget-split and delay between the two phases.

Investigation of multilingual deep neural networks for spoken term detection

The development of high-performance speech processing systems for low-resource languages is a challenging area. One approach to address the lack of resources is to make use of data from multiple languages. A popular direction in recent years is to use bottleneck features, or hybrid systems, trained on multilingual data for speech-to-text (STT) systems. This paper presents an investigation into the application of these multilingual approaches to spoken term detection. Experiments were run using the IARPA Babel limited language pack corpora (∼10 hours/language) with 4 languages for initial multilingual system development and an additional held-out target language. STT gains achieved through using multilingual bottleneck features in a Tandem configuration are shown to also apply to keyword search (KWS). Further improvements in both STT and KWS were observed by incorporating language questions into the Tandem GMM-HMM decision trees for the training set languages. Adapted hybrid systems performed slightly worse on average than the adapted Tandem systems. A language independent acoustic model test on the target language showed that retraining or adapting of the acoustic models to the target language is currently minimally needed to achieve reasonable performance. © 2013 IEEE.

High-frequency ferromagnetic resonance on ultrafine cobalt particles

We report on high-frequency (300-700 GHz) ferromagnetic resonance (HF-FMR) measurements on cobalt superparamagnetic particles with strong uniaxial effective anisotropy. We derive the dynamical susceptibility of the system on the basis of an independent-grain model by using a rectangular approach. Numerical simulations give typical line shapes depending on the anisotropy, the gyromagnetic ratio, and the damping constant. HF-FMR experiments have been performed on two systems of ultrafine cobalt particles of different sizes with a mean number of atoms per particles of 150 +/- 20 and 310 +/- 20. In both systems, the magnetic anisotropy is found to be enhanced compared to the bulk value, and increases as the particle size decreases, in accordance with previous determinations from magnetization measurements. Although no size effect has been observed on the gyromagnetic ratio, the transverse relaxation time is two orders of magnitude smaller than the bulk value indicating strong damping effects, possibly originating from surface spin disorders.

High-field ferromagnetic resonance in fine particles

We investigate high-field ferromagnetic resonance of superparamagnetic particles with uniaxial anisotropy, In this case, since the field is large enough to saturate the magnetization, the thermal orientational fluctuations of the magnetic moment of the particle are negligible. Thus, we derive the dynamic susceptibility of the system on the basis of an independent particle model. High-field ferromagnetic resonance has been performed on fine cobalt particles, The analysis of the spectra obtained at different frequencies allows us to estimate the effective magnetic anisotropy, the gyromagnetic ratio, and the transverse relaxation time. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

High-field ferromagnetic resonance in fine particles

We investigate high-field ferromagnetic resonance of superparamagnetic particles with uniaxial anisotropy, In this case, since the field is large enough to saturate the magnetization, the thermal orientational fluctuations of the magnetic moment of the particle are negligible. Thus, we derive the dynamic susceptibility of the system on the basis of an independent particle model. High-field ferromagnetic resonance has been performed on fine cobalt particles, The analysis of the spectra obtained at different frequencies allows us to estimate the effective magnetic anisotropy, the gyromagnetic ratio, and the transverse relaxation time. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

中国医疗废物优化处置技术和管理模式研究

本论文在综合分析国内外医疗废物处置技术及其应用管理模式的基础上，结合中国医疗废物管理和处置现状，提出了中国医疗废物处置技术选择及应用模式，并对如何优化现行医疗废物处置技术和管理模式问题进行了系统的研究。主要研究成果包括： 1．中国医疗废物处置技术选择和应用模式研究。该项研究是在系统研究国际组织和国际公约、国内外医疗废物处置技术应用状况和管理模式基础上，结合中国医疗废物的产生、处置技术应用以及环境管理模式的特点和存在的问题，针对焚烧和非焚烧两大技术流派开展的。 2．中国医疗废物处置技术和管理模式优化研究。该研究是结合中国医疗废物处置技术应用和管理现状以及推进采用BAT/BEP的总体要求出发，结合具体案例提出了典型医疗废物处置技术优化所涉及工艺配置、工况参数以及污染控制要求，提出了以生命周期和全过程管理为核心的医疗废物管理理念，并就技术和管理模式优化的评价方法问题，提出了焚烧处置设施的性能评价方法以及非焚烧处理设施处理效果评价方法。 相关研究成果的意义在于可以为我国医疗废物领域相关技术选择、工程建设、设施运行、监督管理以及环境监测/检测方法的研究和应用提供借鉴，为推进医疗废物领域探索和采用BAT/BEP提供了技术支持。

One-electron capture with simultaneous ionization in Cq+, Oq+ (q=1-4)-Ar collisions

The ratios R-k1 of k-fold to single ionization of the target atom with simultaneous one-electron capture by the projectile have been measured for 15-480 keV/u (nu(p) = 0.8-4.4 a.u.) collisions of Cq+, Oq+ (q=1-4) with Ar, using time-of-flight techniques which allowed the simultaneous identification of the final charge state of both the low-velocity recoil ion and the high-velocity projectile for each collision event. The present ratios are similar to those for He+ and He2+ ion impact. The energy dependence of R-k1 shows a maximum at a certain energy, E-max. which approximately conforms to the q(1/2)-dependence scaling. For a fixed projectile state, the ratios R-k1 also vary strongly with outgoing reaction channels. The general behavior of the measured data can be qualitatively analyzed by a simple impact-parameter, independent-electron model. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cross sections for transfer ionization in ion-helium collisions

A simple model has been developed within the independent-particle model (IPM) based on the Bohr-Lindhard model and classical statistical model. Cross sections for transfer ionization of helium by ions A(q+) (q = 1-3) are calculated for impact energies between 10 and 6000 keV/u. The calculated cross sections are in good agreement with the experimental data of helium by He(1-2)+ and Li(1-3)+.

A Low Power Wide Dynamic Range Envelope Detector

We report a 75dB, 2.8mW, 100Hz-10kHz envelope detector in a 1.5mm 2.8V CMOS technology. The envelope detector performs input-dc-insensitive voltage-to-currentconverting rectification followed by novel nanopower current-mode peak detection. The use of a subthreshold wide- linear-range transconductor (WLR OTA) allows greater than 1.7Vpp input voltage swings. We show theoretically that this optimal performance is technology-independent for the given topology and may be improved only by spending more power. A novel circuit topology is used to perform 140nW peak detection with controllable attack and release time constants. The lower limits of envelope detection are determined by the more dominant of two effects: The first effect is caused by the inability of amplified high-frequency signals to exceed the deadzone created by exponential nonlinearities in the rectifier. The second effect is due to an output current caused by thermal noise rectification. We demonstrate good agreement of experimentally measured results with theory. The envelope detector is useful in low power bionic implants for the deaf, hearing aids, and speech-recognition front ends. Extension of the envelope detector to higher- frequency applications is straightforward if power consumption is inc

The Cache Inference Problem and its Application to Content and Request Routing

In many networked applications, independent caching agents cooperate by servicing each other's miss streams, without revealing the operational details of the caching mechanisms they employ. Inference of such details could be instrumental for many other processes. For example, it could be used for optimized forwarding (or routing) of one's own miss stream (or content) to available proxy caches, or for making cache-aware resource management decisions. In this paper, we introduce the Cache Inference Problem (CIP) as that of inferring the characteristics of a caching agent, given the miss stream of that agent. While CIP is insolvable in its most general form, there are special cases of practical importance in which it is, including when the request stream follows an Independent Reference Model (IRM) with generalized power-law (GPL) demand distribution. To that end, we design two basic "litmus" tests that are able to detect LFU and LRU replacement policies, the effective size of the cache and of the object universe, and the skewness of the GPL demand for objects. Using extensive experiments under synthetic as well as real traces, we show that our methods infer such characteristics accurately and quite efficiently, and that they remain robust even when the IRM/GPL assumptions do not hold, and even when the underlying replacement policies are not "pure" LFU or LRU. We exemplify the value of our inference framework by considering example applications.

An efficient neural network approach for nanoscale FinFET modelling and circuit simulation

The present paper demonstrates the suitability of artificial neural network (ANN) for modelling of a FinFET in nano-circuit simulation. The FinFET used in this work is designed using careful engineering of source-drain extension, which simultaneously improves maximum frequency of oscillation f(max) because of lower gate to drain capacitance, and intrinsic gain A(V0) = g(m)/g(ds), due to lower output conductance g(ds). The framework for the ANN-based FinFET model is a common source equivalent circuit, where the dependence of intrinsic capacitances, resistances and dc drain current I-d on drain-source V-ds and gate-source V-gs is derived by a simple two-layered neural network architecture. All extrinsic components of the FinFET model are treated as bias independent. The model was implemented in a circuit simulator and verified by its ability to generate accurate response to excitations not used during training. The model was used to design a low-noise amplifier. At low power (J(ds) similar to 10 mu A/mu m) improvement was observed in both third-order-intercept IIP3 (similar to 10 dBm) and intrinsic gain A(V0) (similar to 20 dB), compared to a comparable bulk MOSFET with similar effective channel length. This is attributed to higher ratio of first-order to third-order derivative of I-d with respect to gate voltage and lower g(ds), in FinFET compared to bulk MOSFET. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Targeting translocator protein (18 kDa) (TSPO) dampens pro-inflammatory microglia reactivity in the retina and protects from degeneration

BACKGROUND: Reactive microglia are commonly seen in retinal degenerative diseases, and neurotoxic microglia responses can contribute to photoreceptor cell death. We and others have previously shown that translocator protein (18 kDa) (TSPO) is highly induced in retinal degenerations and that the selective TSPO ligand XBD173 (AC-5216, emapunil) exerts strong anti-inflammatory effects on microglia in vitro and ex vivo. Here, we investigated whether targeting TSPO with XBD173 has immuno-modulatory and neuroprotective functions in two mouse models of acute retinal degeneration using bright white light exposure.

METHODS: BALB/cJ and Cx3cr1 (GFP/+) mice received intraperitoneal injections of 10 mg/kg XBD173 or vehicle for five consecutive days, starting 1 day prior to exposure to either 15,000 lux white light for 1 h or 50,000 lux focal light for 10 min, respectively. The effects of XBD173 treatment on microglia and Müller cell reactivity were analyzed by immuno-stainings of retinal sections and flat mounts, fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) analysis, and mRNA expression of microglia markers using quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR). Optical coherence tomography (OCT), terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) stainings, and morphometric analyses were used to quantify the extent of retinal degeneration and photoreceptor apoptosis.

RESULTS: Four days after the mice were challenged with bright white light, a large number of amoeboid-shaped alerted microglia appeared in the degenerating outer retina, which was nearly completely prevented by treatment with XBD173. This treatment also down-regulated the expression of TSPO protein in microglia but did not change the TSPO levels in the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). RT-PCR analysis showed that the microglia/macrophage markers Cd68 and activated microglia/macrophage whey acidic protein (Amwap) as well as the pro-inflammatory genes Ccl2 and Il6 were reduced after XBD173 treatment. Light-induced degeneration of the outer retina was nearly fully blocked by XBD173 treatment. We further confirmed these findings in an independent mouse model of focal light damage. Retinas of animals receiving XBD173 therapy displayed significantly more ramified non-reactive microglia and more viable arrestin-positive cone photoreceptors than vehicle controls.

CONCLUSIONS: Targeting TSPO with XBD173 effectively counter-regulates microgliosis and ameliorates light-induced retinal damage, highlighting a new pharmacological concept for the treatment of retinal degenerations.