What do case-control studies estimate? Survey of methods and assumptions in published case-control research

To evaluate strategies used to select cases and controls and how reported odds ratios are interpreted, the authors examined 150 case-control studies published in leading general medicine, epidemiology, and clinical specialist journals from 2001 to 2007. Most of the studies (125/150; 83%) were based on incident cases; among these, the source population was mostly dynamic (102/125; 82%). A minority (23/125; 18%) sampled from a fixed cohort. Among studies with incident cases, 105 (84%) could interpret the odds ratio as a rate ratio. Fifty-seven (46% of 125) required the source population to be stable for such interpretation, while the remaining 48 (38% of 125) did not need any assumptions because of matching on time or concurrent sampling. Another 17 (14% of 125) studies with incident cases could interpret the odds ratio as a risk ratio, with 16 of them requiring the rare disease assumption for this interpretation. The rare disease assumption was discussed in 4 studies but was not relevant to any of them. No investigators mentioned the need for a stable population. The authors conclude that in current case-control research, a stable exposure distribution is much more frequently needed to interpret odds ratios than the rare disease assumption. At present, investigators conducting case-control studies rarely discuss what their odds ratios estimate.

A Survey of Image-based Relighting Techniques

Image-based Relighting (IBRL) has recently attracted a lot of research interest for its ability to relight real objects or scenes, from novel illuminations captured in natural/synthetic environments. Complex lighting effects such as subsurface scattering, interreflection, shadowing, mesostructural self-occlusion, refraction and other relevant phenomena can be generated using IBRL. The main advantage of image-based graphics is that the rendering time is independent of scene complexity as the rendering is actually a process of manipulating image pixels, instead of simulating light transport. The goal of this paper is to provide a complete and systematic overview of the research in Imagebased Relighting. We observe that essentially all IBRL techniques can be broadly classified into three categories (Fig. 9), based on how the scene/illumination information is captured: Reflectance function-based, Basis function-based and Plenoptic function-based. We discuss the characteristics of each of these categories and their representative methods. We also discuss about the sampling density and types of light source(s), relevant issues of IBRL.

A Targeted Survey for Scrapie in Jos Plateau State, Nigeria

Scrapie, a disease of sheep and goats with a progressive course and fatal outcome, has not been identified in Nigeria. Anecdotal scrapie reports by livestock workers abound. Livestock diseases like scrapie form huddles in livestock economics of countries. For 8 months we surveyed for scrapie targeting emergency/casualty slaughter sheep and goats in Jos, Nigeria. We clinically examined 510 sheep and 608 goats of local breeds, aged from 12 months to 5 years. In total 31 (5.10%) goats and no sheep were clinically suspicious for scrapie. Caudal brainstem tissues of suspect animals collected postmortem were analyzed for the disease specific form of the prion protein, PrPSc, using Bio-Rad’s TeSeE ELISA rapid test kit. No sample was positive for scrapie. Fluorescent antibody test for rabies and H&E staining on samples were carried out for differential diagnosis. These showed no pathological lesions indicative for neurological disease. While our findings do not exclude the presence of scrapie in Jos, we demonstrate that targeted sampling of small ruminants for neuroinfectious disease is feasible in developing countries, pointing to the possibility of implementing such a monitoring scheme in Nigeria to prevent economic losses in small ruminant livestock as scrapie caveats from endemic countries have shown.

Survey estimation and marginal effects in Stata

Stata is a general purpose software package that has become popular among various disciplines such as epidemiology, economics, or social sciences. Users like Stata for its scientific approach, its robustness and reliability, and the ease with which its functionality can be extended by user written programs. In this talk I will first give a brief overview of the functionality of Stata and then discuss two specific features: survey estimation and predictive margins/marginal effects. Most surveys are based on complex samples that contain multiple sampling stages, are stratified or clustered, and feature unequal selection probabilities. Standard estimators can produce misleading results in such samples unless the peculiarities of the sampling plan are taken into account. Stata offers survey statistics for complex samples for a wide variety of estimators and supports several variance estimation procedures such as linearization, jackknife, and balanced repeated replication (see Kreuter and Valliant, 2007, Stata Journal 7: 1-21). In the talk I will illustrate these features using applied examples and I will also show how user written commands can be adapted to support complex samples. Complex can also be the models we fit to our data, making it difficult to interpret them, especially in case of nonlinear or non-additive models (Mood, 2010, European Sociological Review 26: 67-82). Stata provides a number of highly useful commands to make results of such models accessible by computing and displaying predictive margins and marginal effects. In my talk I will discuss these commands provide various examples demonstrating their use.

Screening for Rheumatic Heart Disease among Peruvian Children: A Two-Stage Sampling Observational Study.

BACKGROUND The objective of the study was to evaluate the implications of different classifications of rheumatic heart disease on estimated prevalence, and to systematically assess the importance of incidental findings from echocardiographic screening among schoolchildren in Peru. METHODS We performed a cluster randomized observational survey using portable echocardiography among schoolchildren aged 5 to 16 years from randomly selected public and private schools in Arequipa, Peru. Rheumatic heart disease was defined according to the modified World Health Organization (WHO) criteria and the World Heart Federation (WHF) criteria. FINDINGS Among 1395 eligible students from 40 classes and 20 schools, 1023 (73%) participated in the present survey. The median age of the children was 11 years (interquartile range [IQR] 8-13 years) and 50% were girls. Prevalence of possible, probable and definite rheumatic heart disease according to the modified WHO criteria amounted to 19.7/1000 children and ranged from 10.2/1000 among children 5 to 8 years of age to 39.8/1000 among children 13 to 16 years of age; the prevalence of borderline/definite rheumatic heart disease according to the WHF criteria was 3.9/1000 children. 21 children (2.1%) were found to have congenital heart disease, 8 of which were referred for percutaneous or surgical intervention. CONCLUSIONS Prevalence of RHD in Peru was considerably lower compared to endemic regions in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, and Oceania; and paralleled by a comparable number of undetected congenital heart disease. Strategies to address collateral findings from echocardiographic screening are necessary in the setup of active surveillance programs for RHD. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02353663.

Recent Advances in Adaptive Sampling and Reconstruction for Monte Carlo Rendering

Monte Carlo integration is firmly established as the basis for most practical realistic image synthesis algorithms because of its flexibility and generality. However, the visual quality of rendered images often suffers from estimator variance, which appears as visually distracting noise. Adaptive sampling and reconstruction algorithms reduce variance by controlling the sampling density and aggregating samples in a reconstruction step, possibly over large image regions. In this paper we survey recent advances in this area. We distinguish between “a priori” methods that analyze the light transport equations and derive sampling rates and reconstruction filters from this analysis, and “a posteriori” methods that apply statistical techniques to sets of samples to drive the adaptive sampling and reconstruction process. They typically estimate the errors of several reconstruction filters, and select the best filter locally to minimize error. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of recent state-of-the-art techniques, and provide visual and quantitative comparisons. Some of these techniques are proving useful in real-world applications, and we aim to provide an overview for practitioners and researchers to assess these approaches. In addition, we discuss directions for potential further improvements.

Local Interstellar Medium: Six Years of Direct Sampling by IBEX

The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) has been directly observing neutral atoms from the local interstellar medium for the last six years (2009–2014). This paper ties together the 14 studies in this Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series Special Issue, which collectively describe the IBEX interstellar neutral results from this epoch and provide a number of other relevant theoretical and observational results. Interstellar neutrals interact with each other and with the ionized portion of the interstellar population in the “pristine” interstellar medium ahead of the heliosphere. Then, in the heliosphereʼs close vicinity, the interstellar medium begins to interact with escaping heliospheric neutrals. In this study, we compare the results from two major analysis approaches led by IBEX groups in New Hampshire and Warsaw. We also directly address the question of the distance upstream to the pristine interstellar medium and adjust both sets of results to a common distance of ~1000 AU. The two analysis approaches are quite different, but yield fully consistent measurements of the interstellar He flow properties, further validating our findings. While detailed error bars are given for both approaches, we recommend that for most purposes, the community use “working values” of ~25.4 km s⁻¹, ~75°7 ecliptic inflow longitude, ~−5°1 ecliptic inflow latitude, and ~7500 K temperature at ~1000 AU upstream. Finally, we briefly address future opportunities for even better interstellar neutral observations to be provided by the Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe mission, which was recommended as the next major Heliophysics mission by the NRCʼs 2013 Decadal Survey.

Survey of VFC provider knowledge of catch-up regimens and contraindications to vaccination in Houston, Texas

In 2004, Houston had one of the lowest childhood immunization levels among major metropolitan cities in the United States at 65% for the 4:3:1:3:3 vaccination series. Delays in the receipt of scheduled vaccinations may be related to missed opportunities due to health care provider lack of knowledge about catch-up regimens and contraindications for pediatric vaccination. The objectives of this study are to identify, measure, and report on VFC provider-practice characteristics, knowledge of catch-up regimens and contraindications, and use of Reminder recall (R/R) and moved or gone elsewhere (MOGE) practices among providers with high (>80%) and low (<70%) immunization coverage among 19-35 month old children. The sampling frame consists of 187 Vaccines for Children (VFC) providers with 2004 clinic assessment software application (CASA) scores. Data were collected by personal interview with each participating practice provider. Only ten VFC providers were successful at maximizing vaccinations for every vignette and no provider administered the maximum possible number of vaccinations at visit 2 for all six vignettes. Both coverage groups administered polio conjugate vaccine (PCV), haemophilus influenza type b (Hib), and diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis (DTaP) most frequently and omitted most frequently varicella zoster vaccine (VZV) and measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. ^

Reconnaissance survey of Galveston Bay sediments for selective nonresidual trace metals

The nonresidual concentrations of five trace metals were determined for 322 sediments that were the product of a systematic sampling program of the entire Galveston Bay system. The nonresidual component of the trace metal concentration (e.g. that fraction of the metals that can be relatively easily removed from the sediments without complete destruction of the sediment particle) was considered to be more indicative of the anthropogenic metal pollution that has impacted the Galveston Bay ecosystem.^ For spatial analysis of the metal concentrations, the Galveston Bay system was divided into nine bay-areas, based on easily definable geological and geographical characteristics. Isopleth mapping analyses of these metal concentrations indicated a direct relationship with the $<$63$\mu$m fraction of the sediment (%FINE) in all of the bay areas. Covariate regression analyses indicated that position of the sediment within the Galveston Bay system (e.g. bay-area) was a better predictor of metal concentration than %FINE. Analysis of variance of the metals versus the bay-areas indicated that the five metals maintained a relatively constant order and magnitude of concentration for all the bay-areas.^ The major shipping channels of the Galveston Bay system, with their associated vessels and transported materials, are a likely source of metal pollution. However, these channels were not depositional corridors of high metal concentration. All metal concentration highs were found to be located away from the channels and associated with %FINE highs in the deeper portions of the bay-areas.^ Disturbance of the sediments, by the proposed widening and deepening of these channels, is not predicted to remobilize the trace metals. A more likely adverse effect on the health of the Galveston Bay ecosystem would come from the increase in turbidity of the water due to the dredging and in an extension of the salt water wedge farther north into the bay system. ^

Table 5 Comparison of surface elevations by Seasat and optical survey along EGIG line

Surface elevation maps of the southern half of the Greenland subcontinent are produced from radar altimeter data acquired by the Seasat satellite. A summary of the processing procedure and examples of return waveform data are given. The elevation data are used to generate a regular grid which is then computer contoured to provide an elevation contour map. Ancillary maps show the statistical quality of the elevation data and various characteristics of the surface. The elevation map is used to define ice flow directions and delineate the major drainage basins. Regular maps of the Jakobshavns Glacier drainage basin and the ice divide in the vicinity of Crete Station are presented. Altimeter derived elevations are compared with elevations measured both by satellite geoceivers and optical surveying.

Urban forest health survey on Roznik in Ljubljana in 2013 by two methods

Urban forest health was surveyed on Roznik in Ljubljana (46.05141 N, 14.47797 E) in 2013 by two methods: ICP Forests and UFMO. ICP Forests is most commonly used monitoring programme in Europe - the International Co-operative Programme on the Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests, which is based on systematic grid. UFMO method - Urban Forests Management Oriented method was developed in the frame of EMoNFUr Project - Establishing a monitoring network to assess lowland forest and urban plantations in Lombardy and urban forest in Slovenia (LIFE10 ENV/IT/000399). UFMO is based on non-linear transects (GPS tracks). ICP forests monitoring plots were established in July 2013 in the urban forest Roznik in Ljubljana .The 32 plots are located on sampling grid 500 × 500 m. The grid was down-scaled from the National Forest Monitoring survey, which bases on national sample grid 4 × 4 km. With the ICP forests method the following parameters for each tree within the 15 plots were gathered according to the ICP forests manual for Visual assessment of crown condition and damaging agents: tree species, percentage of defoliation, affected part of the tree, specification of affected part, location in crown, symptom, symptom specification, causal agents / factors, age of damage, damage extent, and damage extent on the trunk. With the UFMO method, the following parameters for each tree that needed sylviculture measure (felling, pruning, sanitary felling, thinning, etc.) were recorded: tree species, breast diameter, causal agent / damaging factor, GPS waypoint and GPS track. For overall picture in the urban forest health problems, also other biotic and abiotic damaging factors that did not require management action were recorded.

Sampling sites, sampled birds and plants of young larch plantations in Tokachi district, eastern Hokkaido, northern Japan, 2011

Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.