Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction

Reliable budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation are subjected to uncertainties and variability in road asset condition and characteristics of road users. The CRC CI research project 2003-029-C ‘Maintenance Cost Prediction for Road’ developed a method for assessing variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. The method is based on probability-based reliable theory and statistical method. The next stage of the current project is to apply the developed method to predict maintenance/rehabilitation budgets/costs of large networks for strategic investment. The first task is to assess the variability of road data. This report presents initial results of the analysis in assessing the variability of road data. A case study of the analysis for dry non reactive soil is presented to demonstrate the concept in analysing the variability of road data for large road networks. In assessing the variability of road data, large road networks were categorised into categories with common characteristics according to soil and climatic conditions, pavement conditions, pavement types, surface types and annual average daily traffic. The probability distributions, statistical means, and standard deviation values of asset conditions and annual average daily traffic for each type were quantified. The probability distributions and the statistical information obtained in this analysis will be used to asset the variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates in later stage. Generally, we usually used mean values of asset data of each category as input values for investment analysis. The variability of asset data in each category is not taken into account. This analysis method demonstrated that it can be used for practical application taking into account the variability of road data in analysing large road networks for maintenance/rehabilitation investment analysis.

Static load modelling and voltage stability indices

This paper analyzes the performance of some of the widely used voltage stability indices, namely, singular value, eigenvalue, and loading margin with different static load models. Well-known ZIP model is used to represent loads having components with different power to voltage sensitivities. Studies are carried out on a 10-bus power system and the New England 39-bus power system models. The effects of variation of load model on the performance of the voltage stability indices are discussed. The choice of voltage stability index in the context of load modelling is also suggested in this paper.

Stability analysis and control of multiple converter based autonomous microgrid

In this paper, the stability of an autonomous microgrid with multiple distributed generators (DG) is studied through eigenvalue analysis. It is assumed that all the DGs are connected through Voltage Source Converter (VSC) and all connected loads are passive. The VSCs are controlled by state feedback controller to achieve desired voltage and current outputs that are decided by a droop controller. The state space models of each of the converters with its associated feedback are derived. These are then connected with the state space models of the droop, network and loads to form a homogeneous model, through which the eigenvalues are evaluated. The system stability is then investigated as a function of the droop controller real and reac-tive power coefficients. These observations are then verified through simulation studies using PSCAD/EMTDC. It will be shown that the simulation results closely agree with stability be-havior predicted by the eigenvalue analysis.

Sociometric stability and the behavioral correlates of peer acceptance in early childhood

This paper presents findings from an Australian study examining the behavioral correlates and stability of social status for preschool-aged children. The social status of an initial sample of 187 (94 boys and 93 girls) preschool children (mean age 62.4 months, SD = 4.22) was determined through sociometric assessment. Children classified as rejected, neglected and popular (n = 70) were selected for observation. Children were observed for a total of 25 minutes over a three-month period engaging in free play within their preschool centers. Results indicated that children classified as popular were more likely than rejected or neglected children to engage in cooperative play, ongoing connected conversation and to display positive affect. Popular children were less likely than rejected or neglected children to engage in parallel play, onlooker behavior or alone directed behavior. Six months after initial sociometric classification, sociometric interviews were repeated to test for stability and change. Results indicated that preschool-aged children’s social status classifications showed a moderate to high rate of stability for those children classified as popular, rejected and neglected.

Stability of the learning and development survey : findings for mature aged local government and private healthcare organisations.

This article investigates work related learning and development amongst mature aged workers from a lifespan developmental psychology perspective. The current study follows on from research regarding the construction and revision of the Learning and Development Survey (LDS; Tones & Pillay, 2008). Designed to measure adaptive development for work related learning, the revised LDS (R-LDS) encompasses goal selection, engagement and disengagement from individual and organisational perspectives. Previous survey findings from a mixed age sample of local government workers suggest that mature aged workers aged over 45 years are less likely to report engagement in learning and development goals than younger workers, which is partly due to insufficient opportunities at work. In the current paper, exploratory factor analysis was used to investigate responses to the R-LDS amongst two groups of mature aged workers from a local government (LG) and private healthcare (PH) organisation to determine the stability of the R-LDS. Organisational constraints to development accounted for almost a quarter of the variance in R-LDS scores for both samples, while remaining factors emerged in different orders for each data set. Organisational opportunities for development explained about 17% of the variance in R-LDS scores in the LG sample, while the individual goal disengagement factor contributed a comparable proportion of variance to R-LDS scores for the PH sample. Findings from the current study indicate that opportunities for learning and development at work may be age structured and biased towards younger workers. Implications for professional practice are discussed and focus on improving the engagement of mature aged workers.

Increasing stochastic perturbations enhances acquisition and learning of complex sport movements

Traditionally, the aquisition of skills and sport movement has been characterised by numerous repetitions of presumed model movement pattern to be acquired by learners. This approach has been questioned by research identifying the presence of individualised movement patterns and the low probability of occurrence of two identical movements within and between individuals. In contrast, the differential learning approach claims advantage for incurring variability in the learning process by adding stochastic perturbations during practice. These ideas are exemplified by data from a high jump experiment which compared the effectiveness of classical and a differential training approach with pre-post test design. Results showed clear advantages for the group with additional stochastic perturbation during the aquisition phase in comparison to classically trained athletes. Analogies to similar phenomenological effects in the neurobiological literature are discussed.

Cognitive assessment in closed head injury : stability, validity and parallel forms for two neuropsychological measures of recovery

Investigated the psychometric properties of the original and alternate sets of the Trail Making Test (TMT) and the Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT; A. L. Benton and D. Hamsher, 1978) in 50 orthopedic and 15 closed head injured (1 yr after trauma) patients (aged 15–59 yrs). Although the alternate forms of both measures proved to be stable and consistent with each other in both groups, only the parallel sets of TMT reliably discriminated the clinical group from controls. Practice effects in the head injured were significant only for Trail B of TMT. Factor analysis of the control group's results identified Verbal Knowledge as a major contributor to performance on COWAT, whereas TMT was more dependent on Rapid Visual Search and Visuomotor Sequencing.

Stability and convergence of a new explicit finite-difference approximation for the variable-order nonlinear fractional diffusion equation

In this paper, we consider the variable-order nonlinear fractional diffusion equation View the MathML source where xRα(x,t) is a generalized Riesz fractional derivative of variable order View the MathML source and the nonlinear reaction term f(u,x,t) satisfies the Lipschitz condition |f(u1,x,t)-f(u2,x,t)|less-than-or-equals, slantL|u1-u2|. A new explicit finite-difference approximation is introduced. The convergence and stability of this approximation are proved. Finally, some numerical examples are provided to show that this method is computationally efficient. The proposed method and techniques are applicable to other variable-order nonlinear fractional differential equations.

Stability and convergence of an implicit numerical method for the non-linear fractional reaction-subdiffusion process

In this paper, we consider the following non-linear fractional reaction–subdiffusion process (NFR-SubDP): Formula where f(u, x, t) is a linear function of u, the function g(u, x, t) satisfies the Lipschitz condition and 0Dt1–{gamma} is the Riemann–Liouville time fractional partial derivative of order 1 – {gamma}. We propose a new computationally efficient numerical technique to simulate the process. Firstly, the NFR-SubDP is decoupled, which is equivalent to solving a non-linear fractional reaction–subdiffusion equation (NFR-SubDE). Secondly, we propose an implicit numerical method to approximate the NFR-SubDE. Thirdly, the stability and convergence of the method are discussed using a new energy method. Finally, some numerical examples are presented to show the application of the present technique. This method and supporting theoretical results can also be applied to fractional integrodifferential equations.

Power sharing and stability enhancement of an autonomous microgrid with inertial and non-inertial DGs with DSTATCOM

This paper proposes a method of enhancing system stability with a distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) in an autonomous microgrid with multiple distributed generators (DG). It is assumed that there are both inertial and non-inertial DGs connected to the microgrid. The inertial DG can be a synchronous machine of smaller rating while inertia less DGs (solar) are assumed as DC sources. The inertia less DGs are connected through Voltage Source Converter (VSC) to the microgrid. The VSCs are controlled by either state feedback or current feedback mode to achieve desired voltage-current or power outputs respectively. The power sharing among the DGs is achieved by drooping voltage angle. Once the reference for the output voltage magnitude and angle is calculated from the droop, state feedback controllers are used to track the reference. The angle reference for the synchronous machine is compared with the output voltage angle of the machine and the error is fed to a PI controller. The controller output is used to set the power reference of the synchronous machine. The rate of change in the angle in a synchronous machine is restricted by the machine inertia and to mimic this nature, the rate of change in the VSCs angles are restricted by a derivative feedback in the droop control. The connected distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) provides ride through capability during power imbalance in the microgrid, especially when the stored energy of the inertial DG is not sufficient to maintain stability. The inclusion of the DSATCOM in such cases ensures the system stability. The efficacies of the controllers are established through extensive simulation studies using PSCAD.

Stochastic modelling of financial time series with memory and multifractal scaling

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.