Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Activation of the shoulder and arm muscles during axial load exercises on a stable base of support and on a medicine ball

The purpose of this study was to compare SEMG activities during axial load exercises on a stable base of support and on a medicine ball (relatively unstable). Twelve healthy male volunteers were tested (x = 23 +/- 7y). Surface EMG was recorded from the biceps brachii, anterior deltoid, clavicular portion of pectoralis major, upper trapezius and serratus anterior using surface differential electrodes. All SEMG data are reported as percentage of RMS mean values obtained in maximal voluntary contractions for each muscle studied. A 3-way within factor repeated measures analysis of variance was performed to compare RMS normalized values. The RMS normalized values of the deltoid were always greater during the exercises performed on a medicine ball in relation to those performed on a stable base of support. The trapezius showed greater mean electric activation amplitude values on the wall-press exercise on a medicine ball, and the pectoralis major on the push-up. The serratus and biceps did not show significant differences of electric activation amplitude in relation to both tested bases of support. Independent of the base of support, none of the studied muscles showed significant differences of electric activation amplitude during the bench-press exercise. The results contribute to the identification of the levels of muscular activation amplitude during exercises that are common in clinical practice of rehabilitation of the shoulder and the differences in terms of type of base of support used. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Product form approximations for highly linear loss networks with trunk reservation

Admission controls, such as trunk reservation, are often used in loss networks to optimise their performance. Since the numerical evaluation of performance measures is complex, much attention has been given to finding approximation methods. The Erlang Fixed-Point (EFP) approximation, which is based on an independent blocking assumption, has been used for networks both with and without controls. Several more elaborate approximation methods which account for dependencies in blocking behaviour have been developed for the uncontrolled setting. This paper is an exploratory investigation of extensions and synthesis of these methods to systems with controls, in particular, trunk reservation. In order to isolate the dependency factor, we restrict our attention to a highly linear network. We will compare the performance of the resulting approximations against the benchmark of the EFP approximation extended to the trunk reservation setting. By doing this, we seek to gain insight into the critical factors in constructing an effective approximation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nitrification of high strength ammonia wastewtaer treatment - process selection is the major factor.

Biological nitrogen removal via the nitrite pathway in wastewater treatment is very important in Saving the cost of aeration and as an electron donor for denitrification. Wastewater nitrification and nitrite accumulation were carried out in a biofilm airlift reactor with autotrophic nitrifying biofilm. The biofilm reactor showed almost complete nitrification and most of the oxidized ammonium was present as nitrite at the ammonium load of 1.5 to 3.5 kg N/m3.d. Nitrite accumulation was stably achieved by the selective inhibition of nitrite oxidizers with free ammonia and dissolved oxygen limitation. Stable 100% conversion to nitrite could also be achieved even under the absence of free ammonia inhibition on nitrite oxidizers. Batch ammonium oxidation and nitrite oxidation with nitrite accumulating nitrifying biofilm showed that nitrite Oxidation was completely inhibited when free ammonia is higher than 0.2 mg N/L. However, nitrite oxidation activity was recovered as soon as the free ammonia concentration was below the threshold level when dissolved oxygen concentration was not the limiting factor. Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis of cryosectioned nitrite accumulating nitrifying biofilm showed that the β-subclass of Proteobacteria, where ammonia oxidizers belong, was distributed outside the biofilm whereas the α-subclass of Proteobacteria, where nitrite oxidizers belong, was found mainly in the inner part of the biofilm. It is likely that dissolved oxygen deficiency or limitation in the inner part of the nitrifying biofilm, where nitrite oxidizers exist, is responsible for the complete shut down of the nitrite oxidizers activity under the absence of free ammonia inhibition.

A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of loss networks. Accurate determination of loss network performance can assist in the design and dimen- sioning of telecommunications networks. However, exact determination can be difficult and generally cannot be done in reasonable time. For these reasons there is much interest in developing fast and accurate approximations. We develop a reduced load approximation that improves on the famous Erlang fixed point approximation (EFPA) in a variety of circumstances. We illustrate our results with reference to a range of networks for which the EFPA may be expected to perform badly.

Immunological status of ENL (Erythema Nodosum Leprosum) patients: its relationship to bacterial load and levels of circulanting IL-2R

Recent data suggest that the clinical course of reactional states in leprosy is closely related to the cytokine profile released locally or systemically by the patients. In the present study, patients with erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) were grouped according to the intensity of their clinical symptoms. Clinical and immunological aspects of ENL and the impact of these parameters on bacterial load were assessed in conjunction with patients' in vitro immune response to mycobacterial antigens. In 10 out of the 17 patients tested, BI (bacterial index) was reduced by at least 1 log from leprosy diagnosis to the onset of their first reactional episode (ENL), as compared to an expected 0.3 log reduction in the unreactional group for the same MDT (multidrug therapy) period. However, no difference in the rate of BI reduction was noted at the end of MDT among ENL and unreactional lepromatous patients. Accordingly, although TNF-alpha (tumor necrosis factor) levels were enhanced in the sera of 70.6% of the ENL patients tested, no relationship was noted between circulating TNF-alpha levels and the decrease in BI detected at the onset of the reactional episode. Evaluation of bacterial viability of M. leprae isolated from the reactional lesions showed no growth in the mouse footpads. Only 20% of the patients demonstrated specific immune response to M. leprae during ENL. Moreover, high levels of soluble IL-2R (interleukin-2 receptor) were present in 78% of the patients. Circulating anti-neural (anti-ceramide and anti-galactocerebroside antibodies) and anti-mycobacterial antibodies were detected in ENL patients' sera as well, which were not related to the clinical course of disease. Our data suggest that bacterial killing is enhanced during reactions. Emergence of specific immune response to M. leprae and the effective role of TNF-alpha in mediating fragmentation of bacteria still need to be clarified.

Glucocorticoid-induced tumor necrosis factor receptor expression in patients with cervical human papillomavirus infection

Introduction The progression of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in the anogenital tract has been associated with the involvement of cells with regulatory properties. Evidence has shown that glucocorticoid-induced tumor necrosis factor receptor (GITR) is an important surface molecule for the characterization of these cells and proposes that GITR ligand may constitute a rational treatment for many cancer types. We aimed to detect the presence of GITR and CD25 in cervical stroma cells with and without pathological changes or HPV infection to better understand the immune response in the infected tissue microenvironment. Methods We subjected 49 paraffin-embedded cervical tissue samples to HPV DNA detection and histopathological analysis, and subsequently immunohistochemistry to detect GITR and CD25 in lymphocytes. Results We observed that 76.9% of all samples with high GITR expression were HPV-positive regardless of histopathological findings. High GITR expression (77.8%) was predominant in samples with ≥1,000 RLU/PCB. Of the HPV-positive samples negative for intraepithelial lesion and malignancy, 62.5% had high GITR expression. High GITR expression was observed in both carcinoma and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) samples (p = 0.16). CD25 was present in great quantities in all samples. Conclusions The predominance of high GITR expression in samples with high viral load that were classified as HSIL and carcinoma suggests that GITR+ cells can exhibit regulatory properties and may contribute to the progression of HPV-induced cervical neoplasia, emphasizing the importance of GITR as a potential target for immune therapy of cervical cancer and as a disease evolution biomarker.

Macroinvertebrates under stochastic hydrological disturbance in Cerrado streams of Central Brazil

In the Cerrado vegetation, where the seasonal is well defined, rainfall has an important role in controlling the flow of streams and consequently on the structure of macroinvertebrates community. Despite the effects of rainfall associated with seasonality are well studied, little is known about the effects of stochastic rains on the community. In the present study we evaluated the structure and faunal composition of four first-order streams in Central Brazil during the dry season in two years, with and without stochastic rains. Community sampling was done by colonization of boards of high density polyethylene (HDPE), removed after one month submerged in streams. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) performed indicated no difference in rarefied richness between the two periods, different from numeric density of organisms that was higher in the period without disturbance; moreover, the Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) revealed differences in faunal composition between the two periods. Our results indicate that stochastic rainfall is an important factor in structuring the macroinvertebrates community in studied region.

Are one factor logarithmic volatility models useful to fit the features of financial data? An application to microsoft data.

This paper provides empirical evidence that continuous time models with one factor of volatility, in some conditions, are able to fit the main characteristics of financial data. It also reports the importance of the feedback factor in capturing the strong volatility clustering of data, caused by a possible change in the pattern of volatility in the last part of the sample. We use the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) to estimate logarithmic models with one and two stochastic volatility factors (with and without feedback) and to select among them.

Blunted glucose-induced thermogenesis in 'overweight' patients: a factor contributing to relapse of obesity.

Glucose-induced thermogenesis was studied in 12 overweight patients (9F and 3M) before (mean body weight +/- s.e.m. 83 +/- 2 kg) and after weight loss (68 +/- 2 kg), and in eight of the same patients following relapse of body weight gain (84 +/- 5 kg). Expressed as a percentage of the energy content of the 100 g oral glucose load, glucose-induced thermogenesis was lower in the overweight before weight loss (6.5 +/- 0.5 per cent, P less than 0.05), after weight loss (3.9 +/- 0.6 per cent, P less than 0.01) and after weight regain (6.3 +/- 0.9 per cent, P less than 0.05) than in a group of lean control subjects, matched for sex and age (8.3 +/- 0.5 per cent). Basal energy expenditure was lower after weight reduction than before (1.16 +/- 0.04 vs 1.41 +/- 0.08 kcal/min, P less than 0.01). In the formerly overweight patients, the combined effect of a decreased basal energy expenditure and an attenuation of glucose induced thermogenesis resulted in a postprandial energy expenditure which was markedly lower than in the overweight state (P less than 0.001). Following relapse of obesity, glucose-induced thermogenesis remained attenuated compared to control subjects. These results suggest that a lowered basal energy expenditure and a reduced glucose-induced thermogenesis contribute to the positive energy balance which results in relapse of body weight gain after cessation of a hypocaloric diet.

Low transformation growth factor-β1 production and collagen synthesis correlate with the lack of hepatic periportal fibrosis development in undernourished mice infected with Schistosoma mansoni

Undernourished mice infected (UI) submitted to low and long-lasting infections by Schistosoma mansoni are unable to develop the hepatic periportal fibrosis that is equivalent to Symmers’ fibrosis in humans. In this report, the effects of the host’s nutritional status on parasite (worm load, egg viability and maturation) and host (growth curves, biology, collagen synthesis and characteristics of the immunological response) were studied and these are considered as interdependent factors influencing the amount and distribution of fibrous tissue in hepatic periovular granulomas and portal spaces. The nutritional status of the host influenced the low body weight and low parasite burden detected in UI mice as well as the number, viability and maturation of released eggs. The reduced oviposition and increased number of degenerated or dead eggs were associated with low protein synthesis detected in deficient hosts, which likely induced the observed decrease in transformation growth factor (TGF)-β1 and liver collagen. Despite the reduced number of mature eggs in UI mice, the activation of TGF-β1 and hepatic stellate cells occurred regardless of the unviability of most miracidia, due to stimulation by fibrogenic proteins and eggshell glycoproteins. However, changes in the repair mechanisms influenced by the nutritional status in deficient animals may account for the decreased liver collagen detected in the present study.

Co-administration of plasmid-encoded granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor increases human immunodeficiency virus-1 DNA vaccine-induced polyfunctional CD4+ T-cell responses

T-cell based vaccines against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) generate specific responses that may limit both transmission and disease progression by controlling viral load. Broad, polyfunctional, and cytotoxic CD4+T-cell responses have been associated with control of simian immunodeficiency virus/HIV-1 replication, supporting the inclusion of CD4+ T-cell epitopes in vaccine formulations. Plasmid-encoded granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (pGM-CSF) co-administration has been shown to induce potent CD4+ T-cell responses and to promote accelerated priming and increased migration of antigen-specific CD4+ T-cells. However, no study has shown whether co-immunisation with pGM-CSF enhances the number of vaccine-induced polyfunctional CD4+ T-cells. Our group has previously developed a DNA vaccine encoding conserved, multiple human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR binding HIV-1 subtype B peptides, which elicited broad, polyfunctional and long-lived CD4+ T-cell responses. Here, we show that pGM-CSF co-immunisation improved both magnitude and quality of vaccine-induced T-cell responses, particularly by increasing proliferating CD4+ T-cells that produce simultaneously interferon-γ, tumour necrosis factor-α and interleukin-2. Thus, we believe that the use of pGM-CSF may be helpful for vaccine strategies focused on the activation of anti-HIV CD4+ T-cell immunity.

Gain-of-function haplotype in the epithelial calcium channel TRPV6 is a risk factor for renal calcium stone formation.

The rate-limiting step of dietary calcium absorption in the intestine requires the brush border calcium entry channel TRPV6. The TRPV6 gene was completely sequenced in 170 renal calcium stone patients. The frequency of an ancestral TRPV6 haplotype consisting of three non-synonymous polymorphisms (C157R, M378V, M681T) was significantly higher (P = 0.039) in calcium stone formers (8.4%; derived = 502, ancestral = 46) compared to non-stone-forming individuals (5.4%; derived = 645, ancestral = 37). Mineral metabolism was investigated on four different calcium regimens: (i) free-choice diet, (ii) low calcium diet, (iii) fasting and (iv) after a 1 g oral calcium load. When patients homozygous for the derived haplotype were compared with heterozygous patients, no differences were found with respect to the plasma concentrations of 1,25-vitamin D, PTH and calcium, and the urinary excretion of calcium. In one stone-forming patient, the ancestral haplotype was found to be homozygous. This patient had absorptive hypercalciuria. We therefore expressed the ancestral protein (157R+378V+681T) in Xenopus oocytes and found a significantly enhanced calcium permeability when tested by a (45)Ca(2+) uptake assay (7.11 +/- 1.93 versus 3.61 +/- 1.01 pmol/min/oocyte for ancestral versus derived haplotype, P < 0.01). These results suggest that the ancestral gain-of-function haplotype in TRPV6 plays a role in calcium stone formation in certain forms of absorptive hypercalciuria.

Age above 60 years is not a negative predictive factor for combined antiviral therapy with pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin in hepatitis C patients

Background: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral hepatitis C therapy. However, elderly patients often show relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis which is a known negative predictive factor, making it difficult to interpret age as an independent predictive factor. Methods: From the framework of the Swiss hepatitis C cohort (SCCS), we collected data from 545 antiviral hepatitis C therapies, including data from 67 hepatitis C patients ≥ 60 y who had been treated with PEG-interferon and ribavirin. We analyzed host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, depression, earlier hepatitis C treatment), viral factors (genotype, viral load) and treatment course (early virological response, end of treatment response, SVR). Generalised estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling was used for the primary end point (SVR), with age ≥ 60 y and < 60 y as independent variable and gender, presence of cirrhosis, genotype, earlier treatment and viral load as confounders. SVR was analysed in young and elderly patients after matching for these confounders. Additionally, classification tree analysis was done in elderly patients using these confounders. Results: SVR analyzed in 545 patients was 55%. In genotype 1/4, SVR was 42.9% in 259 patients < 60 y and 26.1% in 46 patients ≥ 60 y. In genotype 2/3, SVR was 74.4% in 215 patients < 60 y and 84% in 25 patients ≥ 60 y. However, GEE model showed that age had no influence on achieving SVR (Odds ratio 0.91). Confounders influenced SVR as known from previous studies (cirrhosis, genotype 1/4, previous treatment and viral load >600'000 IE/ml as negative predictive factors). When young and elderly patients were matched (analysis in 59 elderly patients), SVR was not different in these patient groups (54.2% and 55.9%, resp.; p=0.795 in binomial test). The classification tree-derived best criterion for SVR in elderly patients was genotype, with no further criteria relevant for predicting SVR in genotype 2/3. In patients with genotype 1/4, further criteria were presence of cirrhosis and low viral load <600'000 IE/ml in non-cirrhotic patients. Conclusions: Age is not a relevant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when confounders were taken into account. In terms of effectiveness of antiviral therapy, age does not play a major role and should not be regarded as relevant negative predictive factor. Since life expectancy in Switzerland at age 60 is more than 22 y, hepatitis C therapy is reasonable in elderly patients with known relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis, because interferon-based hepatitis C therapy improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

Low estimates of dietary acid load are positively associated with bone ultrasound in women older than 75 years of age with a lifetime fracture

Dietary acid load from Western diets may be a risk factor for osteoporosis. It can be estimated by net endogenous acid production (NEAP). No data currently exists for NEAP estimates and bone indices in the very elderly (i.e. > or = 75 y). The aim of this study was to determine the association between NEAP estimates by using the potential renal acid load (PRAL) equation and quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS) measurements at the heel [broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA)] in Caucasian women. We assessed NEAP and QUS in 401 very elderly Swiss ambulatory women. We evaluated dietary intake and NEAP estimates with a validated FFQ. QUS was measured using Achilles (Lunar). We identified 2 subgroups: 256 women (80.6 y +/- 3; BUA, 96.8 dB/MHz) with a fracture history and the remaining 145 (79.9 y SD 2.9; BUA, 101.7 dB/MHz) without. Women who reported having suffered a fracture had lower BUA (P < 0.001) than nonfractured women but did not differ in nutrient intakes and NEAP. Lower NEAP (P = 0.023) and higher potassium intake (P = 0.033) were correlated with higher BUA, which remained significant even after adjustment for age, BMI, and osteoporosis treatment. BUA was positively correlated with calcium (P = 0.016) and BMI (P < 0.001). Women who reported no fractures had no significant correlations between nutrient intake, NEAP, and BUA. Low nutritional acid load was correlated with higher BUA in very elderly women with a fracture history. Although relatively weak compared with age and BMI, this association was significant and may be an important additional risk factor that might be particularly relevant in frail patients with an already high fracture risk.