On the statistical modeling of persistence in total ozone anomalies

Geophysical time series sometimes exhibit serial correlations that are stronger than can be captured by the commonly used first‐order autoregressive model. In this study we demonstrate that a power law statistical model serves as a useful upper bound for the persistence of total ozone anomalies on monthly to interannual timescales. Such a model is usually characterized by the Hurst exponent. We show that the estimation of the Hurst exponent in time series of total ozone is sensitive to various choices made in the statistical analysis, especially whether and how the deterministic (including periodic) signals are filtered from the time series, and the frequency range over which the estimation is made. In particular, care must be taken to ensure that the estimate of the Hurst exponent accurately represents the low‐frequency limit of the spectrum, which is the part that is relevant to long‐term correlations and the uncertainty of estimated trends. Otherwise, spurious results can be obtained. Based on this analysis, and using an updated equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) function, we predict that an increase in total ozone attributable to EESC should be detectable at the 95% confidence level by 2015 at the latest in southern midlatitudes, and by 2020–2025 at the latest over 30°–45°N, with the time to detection increasing rapidly with latitude north of this range.

Detection of solar dimming and brightening effects on Northern Hemisphere river flow

Anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere have the potential to affect regional-scale land hydrology through solar dimming. Increased aerosol loading may have reduced historical surface evaporation over some locations, but the magnitude and extent of this effect is uncertain. Any reduction in evaporation due to historical solar dimming may have resulted in an increase in river flow. Here we formally detect and quantify the historical effect of changing aerosol concentrations, via solar radiation, on observed river flow over the heavily industrialized, northern extra-tropics. We use a state-of-the-art estimate of twentieth century surface meteorology as input data for a detailed land surface model, and show that the simulations capture the observed strong inter-annual variability in runoff in response to climatic fluctuations. Using statistical techniques, we identify a detectable aerosol signal in the observed river flow both over the combined region, and over individual river basins in Europe and North America. We estimate that solar dimming due to rising aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere around 1980 led to an increase in river runoff by up to 25% in the most heavily polluted regions in Europe. We propose that, conversely, these regions may experience reduced freshwater availability in the future, as air quality improvements are set to lower aerosol loading and solar dimming.

Detection of Mycoplasma pulmonis in laboratory rats and technicians

Five species of mycoplasma are associated with several rat diseases. Mycoplasma pulmonis is the most important and most studied, possibly causing disease in rats and undermining the validity of laboratory experiments. M. pulmonis was isolated in 144/240 laboratory rats and identified by PCR in 155/240. This species was also detected in 12 human individuals (technicians of a laboratory animal house hold) in contact with these rats. The results were confirmed by sequencing of DNA products. Mycoplasma species are host specific; however, M. pulmonis was identified in humans, suggesting a case of unspecific colonization. Statistical analysis shows a greater risk for M. pulmonis colonizing individuals who are exposed to infected rats in animal facilities than individuals who do not. The detection of M. pulmonis in humans indicates a new status for this mollicute mycoplasmas in animal-holding facilities.

Statistical analysis of the Doppler broadening coincidence spectrum of electron-positron annihilation radiation in silicon

We report a statistical analysis of Doppler broadening coincidence data of electron-positron annihilation radiation in silicon using a (22)Na source. The Doppler broadening coincidence spectrum was fit using a model function that included positron annihilation at rest with 1s, 2s, 2p, and valence band electrons. In-flight positron annihilation was also fit. The response functions of the detectors accounted for backscattering, combinations of Compton effects, pileup, ballistic deficit, and pulse-shaping problems. The procedure allows the quantitative determination of positron annihilation with core and valence electron intensities as well as their standard deviations directly from the experimental spectrum. The results obtained for the core and valence band electron annihilation intensities were 2.56(9)% and 97.44(9)%, respectively. These intensities are consistent with published experimental data treated by conventional analysis methods. This new procedure has the advantage of allowing one to distinguish additional effects from those associated with the detection system response function. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In vitro culture, PCR , and nested PCR for the detection of Theileria equi in horses submitted to exercise

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Accuracy of zoomed digital image in the detection of periodontal bone defect: in vitro study

Objectives: (1) To evaluate the intraobserver agreement related to image interpretation and (2) to compare the accuracy of 100%, 200% and 400% zoomed digital images in the detection of simulated periodontal bone defects.Methods: Periodontal bone defects were created in 60 pig hemi-mandibles with slow-speed burs 0.5 mm, 1.0 mm, 1.5 mm, 2.0 mm and 3.0 mm in diameter. 180 standardized digital radiographs were made using Schick sensor and evaluated at 100%, 200% and 400% zooming. The intraobserver agreement was estimated by Kappa statistic (kappa). For the evaluation of diagnostic accuracy receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed followed by chi-square test to compare the areas under ROC curves according to each level of zooming.Results: For 100%, 200% and 400% zooming the intraobserver agreement was moderate (kappa = 0.48, kappa = 0.54 and kappa = 0.43, respectively) and there were similar performances in the discrimination capacity, with ROC areas of 0.8611 (95% CI: 0.7660-0.9562), 0.8600 (95% CI: 0.7659-0.9540), and 0.8368 (95% CI: 0.7346-0.9390), respectively, with no statistical significant differences (chi(2)-test; P = 0.8440).Conclusions: A moderate intraobserver agreement was observed in the classification of periodontal bone defects and the 100%, 200% and 400% zoomed digital images presented similar performances in the detection of periodontal bone defects.

The use of carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes for the detection of poultry offal meal in meat-type quail feeds

The objective of the present study was to trace the inclusion of poultry offal meal (POM) in the diet of meat-type quails reared for a long period using the technique of stable isotopes. A number of 320 quails were randomly distributed into eight treatments: vegetable diet (T1), and a diet containing 8% POM were fed until the end of the experimental period (T2) or replaced by the vegetable diet on day 42 (T3), 56 (T4), 70 (T5), 84 (T6), 98 (T7), and 112 (T8). Breast muscle samples were collected from four birds randomly selected per treatment every 14 days. The obtained isotope results were submitted to multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) with the aid of the GLM procedure of statistical SAS program. Treatments were different from T1 when birds were sacrificed at least two weeks after the diet was changed. T2 results were different from T1 in all evaluated periods. It was concluded that it is possible to trace poultry offal meal inclusion in a strictly vegetable diet after the diet was changed for at least 14 days.

Behaviour of dispersion indices in pattern detection of a population of angico, Anadenanthera peregrina (Leguminosae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Detection of antibodies against Babesia bovis and Babesia bigemina in calves from the region of Araguaína, State of Tocantins, Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Spatial pattern detection modeling of thrips (Thrips tabaci) on onion fields

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Lightning characteristics observed by a VLF/LF lightning detection network (LINET) in Brazil, Australia, Africa and Germany

This paper describes lightning characteristics as obtained in four sets of lightning measurements during recent field campaigns in different parts of the world from mid-latitudes to the tropics by the novel VLF/LF (very low frequency/low frequency) lightning detection network (LINET). The paper gives a general overview on the approach, and a synopsis of the statistical results for the observation periods as a whole and for one special day in each region. The focus is on the characteristics of lightning which can specifically be observed by this system like intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground stroke statistics, vertical distributions of intra-cloud strokes or peak current distributions. Some conclusions regarding lightning produced NOx are also presented as this was one of the aims of the tropical field campaigns TROCCINOX (Tropical Convection, Cirrus and Nitrogen Oxides Experiment) and TroCCiBras (Tropical Convection and Cirrus Experiment Brazil) in Brazil during January/February 2005, SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) and TWP-ICE (Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment) during November/December 2005 and January/February 2006, respectively, in the Darwin area in N-Australia, and of AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses) in W-Africa during June-November 2006.

Detection of estrogen receptor in formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded breast carcinoma: correlation with histological patterns.

The authors studied the expression of estrogen receptor (ER) in tissues of breast carcinomas which were previously fixed in formalin and paraffin-embedded. The ER expression was correlated with several histological findings, namely grade of differentiation, tumor necrosis, desmoplasia, lymphocytic infiltration and elastosis. The ER was detected in tissues using the avidin-biotin immunoperoxidase technique associated with the H222 monoclonal antibody from Abbott. All 39 biopsies were of infiltrating ductal carcinoma of breast and 16 of them expressed ER. The statistical analysis showed that the expression of ER was correlated with histological findings of good prognosis as well differentiated carcinomas, no tumor necrosis, absence or mild lymphocytic infiltration around the tumor cells and severe elastosis.

PCR-based detection of Babesia bovis and Babesia bigemina in their natural host Boophilus microplus and cattle

PCR and nested-PCR methods were used to assess the frequency of Babesia bovis and Babesia bigemina infection in Boophilus microplus engorged females and eggs and in cattle reared in an area with endemic babesiosis. Blood and the engorged female ticks were from 27 naturally infested calves and 25 crossbred cows. The frequency of both Babesia species was similar in calves and cows (P > 0.05). Babesia bovis was detected in 23 (85.2%) calves and in 25 (100%) cows and B. bigemina was detected in 25 (92.6%) calves and in 21 (84%) cows. Mixed infections with the both Babesia species were identified in 42 animals, 21 in each age category. Of female ticks engorged on calves, 34.9% were negative and single species infection with B. bigemina (56.2%) was significantly more frequent (P < 0.01) than with B. bovis (4.7%). Most of the females (60.8%) engorged on cows did not show Babesia spp. infection and the frequency of single B. bovis infection (17.6%) was similar (P > 0.05) to the frequency of single B. bigemina infection (15.9%). Mixed Babesia infection was lower (P < 0.01) than single species infection in female ticks engorged either in cows (5.7%) or in calves (4.3%). An egg sample from each female was analysed for the presence of Babesia species. Of the egg samples from female ticks infected with B. bovis, 26 (47.3%) were infected while from those from female ticks infected with B. bigemina 141 (76.6%) were infected (P < 0.01). The results showed that although the frequency of both species of Babesia was similar in calves and cows, the infectivity of B. bigemina was higher to ticks fed on calves while to those ticks fed on cows the infectivity of both Babesia species was similar. © 2004 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fault identification in distribution lines using intelligent systems and statistical methods

The main objective involved with this paper consists of presenting the results obtained from the application of artificial neural networks and statistical tools in the automatic identification and classification process of faults in electric power distribution systems. The developed techniques to treat the proposed problem have used, in an integrated way, several approaches that can contribute to the successful detection process of faults, aiming that it is carried out in a reliable and safe way. The compilations of the results obtained from practical experiments accomplished in a pilot distribution feeder have demonstrated that the developed techniques provide accurate results, identifying and classifying efficiently the several occurrences of faults observed in the feeder. © 2006 IEEE.

Evaluation of IFA, MAT, ELISAs and immunoblotting for the detection of anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies in paired serum and aqueous humour samples from experimentally infected pigs

The study evaluated the efficiency of diagnostic laboratory methods to detect anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies in paired serum and aqueous humour samples from experimentally infected pigs. 18-mixed breed pigs were used during the experiment; these were divided into two groups, G1 (infected group, n = 10) and G2 (uninfected group, n = 8). Infection was performed with 4 × 10 4 VEG strain oocysts at day 0 by the oral route in G1 animals. All pigs were euthanized at day 60, when retina, aqueous humour, and blood samples were collected. Anti-T. gondii antibody levels were assessed in serum (s) and aqueous humour (ah) by indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA), modified agglutination test (MAT), m-ELISA (using crude membranes from T. gondii tachyzoites as antigen) and r-ELISA (using rhoptries from T. gondii tachyzoites as antigen). Polymerase chain reactions (PCR) of samples from the retina were performed by using Tox4 and Tox5 primers. Antibody titers of G1 animals ranged from 128 to 1024 and from 16 to 256 in serum and aqueous humour, respectively. There were differences in the correlation coefficients between IFA(s) × IFA (ah) (r = 0.62, P = 0.05), MAT(s) × MAT (ah) (r = 0.97, P < 0.0001); however, there was no significant difference between r-ELISA(s) × r-ELISA (ah) (r = 0.14, P = 0.7). Antibodies present in serum and aqueous humour recognized similar antigens. Samples of retina were positive by PCR in 30% (3/10) of infected pigs. G2 animals remained without antibody levels and were PCR negative throughout the experiment. These results suggest that the use of a combination of tests and immunoblotting for paired aqueous humour and serum samples could improve the sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of ocular toxoplasmosis. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.