The Coxian phase-type distribution as a contribution to the multilevel model of in-hospital mortality

This paper presents multilevel models that utilize the Coxian phase-type distribution in order to be able to include a survival component in the model. The approach is demonstrated by modeling patient length of stay and in-hospital mortality in geriatric wards in Italy. The multilevel model is used to provide a means of controlling for the existence of possible intra-ward correlations, which may make patients within a hospital more alike in terms of experienced outcome than patients coming from different hospitals, everything else being equal. Within this multilevel model we introduce the use of the Coxian phase-type distribution to create a covariate that represents patient length of stay or stage (of hospital care). Results demonstrate that the use of the multilevel model for representing the in-patient mortality is successful and further enhanced by the inclusion of the Coxian phase-type distribution variable (stage covariate).

Optimization models for a short sea fuel oil distribution problem

O transporte marítimo e o principal meio de transporte de mercadorias em todo o mundo. Combustíveis e produtos petrolíferos representam grande parte das mercadorias transportadas por via marítima. Sendo Cabo Verde um arquipelago o transporte por mar desempenha um papel de grande relevância na economia do país. Consideramos o problema da distribuicao de combustíveis em Cabo Verde, onde uma companhia e responsavel por coordenar a distribuicao de produtos petrolíferos com a gestão dos respetivos níveis armazenados em cada porto, de modo a satisfazer a procura dos varios produtos. O objetivo consiste em determinar políticas de distribuicão de combustíveis que minimizam o custo total de distribuiçao (transporte e operacões) enquanto os n íveis de armazenamento sao mantidos nos n íveis desejados. Por conveniencia, de acordo com o planeamento temporal, o prob¬lema e divido em dois sub-problemas interligados. Um de curto prazo e outro de medio prazo. Para o problema de curto prazo sao discutidos modelos matemáticos de programacao inteira mista, que consideram simultaneamente uma medicao temporal cont ínua e uma discreta de modo a modelar multiplas janelas temporais e taxas de consumo que variam diariamente. Os modelos sao fortalecidos com a inclusão de desigualdades validas. O problema e então resolvido usando um "software" comercial. Para o problema de medio prazo sao inicialmente discutidos e comparados varios modelos de programacao inteira mista para um horizonte temporal curto assumindo agora uma taxa de consumo constante, e sao introduzidas novas desigualdades validas. Com base no modelo escolhido sao compara¬das estrategias heurísticas que combinam três heur ísticas bem conhecidas: "Rolling Horizon", "Feasibility Pump" e "Local Branching", de modo a gerar boas soluçoes admissíveis para planeamentos com horizontes temporais de varios meses. Finalmente, de modo a lidar com situaçoes imprevistas, mas impor¬tantes no transporte marítimo, como as mas condicões meteorológicas e congestionamento dos portos, apresentamos um modelo estocastico para um problema de curto prazo, onde os tempos de viagens e os tempos de espera nos portos sao aleatórios. O problema e formulado como um modelo em duas etapas, onde na primeira etapa sao tomadas as decisões relativas as rotas do navio e quantidades a carregar e descarregar e na segunda etapa (designada por sub-problema) sao consideradas as decisoes (com recurso) relativas ao escalonamento das operacões. O problema e resolvido por um metodo de decomposto que usa um algoritmo eficiente para separar as desigualdades violadas no sub-problema.

Optimal methodology for distribution systems reconfiguration based on OPF and solved by decomposition technique

This paper presents a new and efficient methodology for distribution network reconfiguration integrated with optimal power flow (OPF) based on a Benders decomposition approach. The objective minimizes power losses, balancing load among feeders and subject to constraints: capacity limit of branches, minimum and maximum power limits of substations or distributed generators, minimum deviation of bus voltages and radial optimal operation of networks. The Generalized Benders decomposition algorithm is applied to solve the problem. The formulation can be embedded under two stages; the first one is the Master problem and is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming problem. This stage determines the radial topology of the distribution network. The second stage is the Slave problem and is formulated as a non-linear programming problem. This stage is used to determine the feasibility of the Master problem solution by means of an OPF and provides information to formulate the linear Benders cuts that connect both problems. The model is programmed in GAMS. The effectiveness of the proposal is demonstrated through two examples extracted from the literature.

Genesis and distribution of Mississippi Valley-type ore assemblages in Middle Silurian strata, Niagara Peninsula, Ontario /

Presently non-commercial occurrences of Mississippi Valley-type ore assemblages in the Middle Silurian strata of the Niagara Peninsula have been studied. Based on this detailed study, a new poly-stage genetic model is proposed which relates ore mineralization in carbonate environments to the evolution of the sedimentary basin. Sulphide ore mineralization occurred during two episodes: 1. During the late diagenesis stage, which is characterized by compaction-maturation of the sediments, the initial mineralization took place by upward and outward movement of connate waters. Metals were probably supplied from all the sediments regardless of their specific lithologies. However, clay minerals were possibly the main contributors. The possible source of sulphur was from petroleum-type hydrocarbons presently mixed with the sediments at the site of ore deposition. Evidence for this is the fact that the greatest abundance of ore minerals is in petroliferous carbonates. The hydrocarbons probably represent liquids remaining after upward migration to the overlying Guelph-Salina reservoirs. The majority of sphalerite and galena formed during this period, as well as accessory pyrite, marcasite, chalcopyrite, chalcocite, arsenopyrite, and pyrrhotite; and secondary dolomite, calcite, celestite, and gypsum. 2. During the presently ongoing surface erosion and weathering phase, which is marked by the downward movement of groundwater, preexisting sulphides were probably remobilized, and trace amounts of lead and zinc were leached from the host material, by groundwaters. Metal sulphides precipitated at, or below, the water table, or where atmospheric oxygen could raise the Eh of groundwaters to the point where soluble metal complexes are unstable and native sulphur co-precipitates with sphalerite and galena. This process, which can be observed today, also results in the transport and deposition of the host rock material. Breakdown of pre-existing sulphide and sulphate, as well as hydrocarbon present in the host rock, provided sulphur necessary for sulphide precipitation. The galena and sphalerite are accompanied by dolomite, calcite, gypsum, anglesite, native sulphur and possibly zincite.

Asymptotic Distribution of a Simple Linear Estimator for VARMA Models in Echelon Form

In this paper, we study the asymptotic distribution of a simple two-stage (Hannan-Rissanen-type) linear estimator for stationary invertible vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models in the echelon form representation. General conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality are given. A consistent estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator is also provided, so that tests and confidence intervals can easily be constructed.

Effet du développement résidentiel sur l'habitat et la distribution des macrophytes dans les lacs des Laurentides

L’effet du développement résidentiel des bassins versants sur l’habitat et la distribution des macrophytes dans le littoral de six lacs des Laurentides a été évalué à l’aide de carottes de sédiments et de quadrats. Le développement augmente la proportion de milieux déboisés ce qui réduit l’apport en débris de bois et augmente l’érosion et les apports de nutriments dans les sédiments du littoral. Les sédiments sont plus fins, plus denses et contiennent moins de matière organique. Ces changements favorisent les macrophytes en augmentant leur couverture dans les lacs développés. La présence d’espèces submergées de macrophytes est également favorisée au détriment des espèces à feuilles flottantes, plus caractéristiques des lacs moins développés. Même si la biomasse des macrophytes est limitée dans certains lacs, celle-ci augmente dans les lacs développés et montre des signes d’un effet tampon sur les apports de nutriments. Des quantités équivalentes à des valeurs entre 35 et 230% des apports annuels de phosphore et entre 79 et 659% des apports d’azote par les résidents ont été accumulées dans les tissus des macrophytes des lacs dont le bassin versant est très déboisé. Les sédiments s’enrichissent à la sénescence des macrophytes et contiennent alors plus de nutriments que la colonne d’eau et ce, pour tous les lacs. Une présence accrue d’espèces submergées et plus de nutriments dans les tissus des macrophytes des lacs développés, jumelés à l’absence de prolifération de phytoplancton malgré un plus grand apport de nutriments, laisse penser que les lacs des Laurentides sont en état d’eutrophisation précoce.

Preparation and characterization of micro and nano fiber reinforced natural rubber composites by latex stage processing

Use of short fibers as reinforcing fillers in rubber composites is on an increasing trend. They are popular due to the possibility of obtaining anisotropic properties, ease of processing and economy. In the preparation of these composites short fibers are incorporated on two roll mixing mills or in internal mixers. This is a high energy intensive time consuming process. This calls for developing less energy intensive and less time consuming processes for incorporation and distribution of short fibers in the rubber matrix. One method for this is to incorporate fibers in the latex stage. The present study is primarily to optimize the preparation of short fiber- natural rubber composite by latex stage compounding and to evaluate the resulting composites in terms of mechanical, dynamic mechanical and thermal properties. A synthetic fiber (Nylon) and a natural fiber (Coir) are used to evaluate the advantages of the processing through latex stage. To extract the full reinforcing potential of the coir fibers the macro fibers are converted to micro fibers through chemical and mechanical means. The thesis is presented in 7 chapters

Factors affecting distribution of vegetation types on abandoned cropland in the hilly-gullied Loess Plateau region of China

A study was conducted in the forest-steppe region of the Loess Plateau to provide insight into the factors affecting the process of vegetation establishment, and to provide recommendations for the selection of indigenous species in order to speed up the succession process and to allow the establishment of vegetation more resistant to soil erosion. Four distinctive vegetation types were identified, and their distribution was affected not only by the time since abandonment but also by other environmental factors, mainly soil water and total P in the upper soil layers. One of the vegetation types, dominated by Artemisia scoparia, formed the early successional stage after abandonment while the other three types formed later successional stages with their distribution determined by the soil water content and total P. It can be concluded that the selection of appropriate species for introduction to accelerate succession should be determined by the local conditions and especially the total P concentration and soil water content.

Distribution, gene sequence and expression in vivo of the plasmid encoded fimbrial antigen of Salmonella serotype Enteritidis

The pefA gene which encoded the serotype associated plasmid (SAP) mediated fimbrial major subunit antigen of Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium shared genetic identity with 128 of 706 salmonella isolates as demonstrated by dot (colony) hybridization. Seventy-seven of 113 isolates of Typhimurium and individual isolates of serotypes Bovis-morbificans, Cholerae-suis and Enteritidis phage type 9b hybridized pefA strongly, whereas 48 isolates of Enteritidis hybridized pefA weakly and one Enteritidis isolate of phage type 14b failed to hybridize. Individual isolates of 294 serotypes and 247 individual isolates of serotype Dublin did not hybridize pefA. Southern hybridization of plasmids extracted from Enteritidis demonstrated that the pefA gene probe hybridized strongly an atypical SAP of 80 kb in size harboured by one Enteritidis isolate of phage-type 9b, whereas the typical SAP of 58 kb in size harboured by 48 Enteritidis isolates hybridized weakly. One Enteritidis isolate of phage type 14b which failed to hybridize pefA in dot (colony) hybridization experiments was demonstrated to be plasmid free. A cosmid library of Enteritidis phage type 4 expressed in Escherichia coli K12 was screened by hybridization for the presence of pef sequences. Recombinant clones which were deduced to harbour the entire pef operon elaborated a PEF-like fimbrial structure at the cell surface. The PEF-like fimbrial antigen was purified from one cosmid clone and used in western blot experiments with sera from chickens infected with Enteritidis phage-type 4. Seroconversion to the fimbrial antigen was observed which indicated that the Enteritidis PEF-like fimbrial structure was expressed at some stage during infection. Nucleotide sequence analysis demonstrated that the pefA alleles of Typhimurium and Enteritidis phage-type 4 shared 76% DNA nucleotide and 82% deduced amino acid sequence identity.

Volume-based size distribution of accumulation and coarse particles (PM0.1–10) from cooking fume during oil heating

Particulate matter generated during the cooking process has been identified as one of the major problems of indoor air quality and indoor environmental health. Reliable assessment of exposure to cooking-generated particles requires accurate information of emission characteristics especially the size distribution. This study characterizes the volume/mass-based size distribution of the fume particles at the oil-heating stage for the typical Chinese-style cooking in a laboratory kitchen. A laser-diffraction size analyzer is applied to measure the volume frequency of fume particles ranged from 0.1 to 10 μm, which contribute to most mass proportion in PM2.5 and PM10. Measurements show that particle emissions have little dependence on the types of vegetable oil used but have a close relationship with the heating temperature. It is found that volume frequency of fume particles in the range of 1.0–4.0 μm accounts for nearly 100% of PM0.1–10 with the mode diameter 2.7 μm, median diameter 2.6 μm, Sauter mean diameter 3.0 μm, DeBroukere mean diameter 3.2 μm, and distribution span 0.48. Such information on emission characteristics obtained in this study can be possibly used to improve the assessment of indoor air quality due to PM0.1–10 in the kitchen and residential flat.

Distribution of research gains in multistage production systems: further results

The "marketing" sector in Muth's single-stage model is disaggregated in to two sequential stages: "processing" and "distribution. "Comparative statics are used to derive necessary and sufficient conditions for farmers to gain from downstream research. The farm benefits are shown to depend crucially on the stage in "marketing" to which research is directed.

Describing seasonal variability in the distribution of daily effective temperatures for 1985-2009 compared to 1904-1984 for De Bilt, Holland

This paper proposes a method for describing the distribution of observed temperatures on any day of the year such that the distribution and summary statistics of interest derived from the distribution vary smoothly through the year. The method removes the noise inherent in calculating summary statistics directly from the data thus easing comparisons of distributions and summary statistics between different periods. The method is demonstrated using daily effective temperatures (DET) derived from observations of temperature and wind speed at De Bilt, Holland. Distributions and summary statistics are obtained from 1985 to 2009 and compared to the period 1904–1984. A two-stage process first obtains parameters of a theoretical probability distribution, in this case the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, which describes the distribution of DET on any day of the year. Second, linear models describe seasonal variation in the parameters. Model predictions provide parameters of the GEV distribution, and therefore summary statistics, that vary smoothly through the year. There is evidence of an increasing mean temperature, a decrease in the variability in temperatures mainly in the winter and more positive skew, more warm days, in the summer. In the winter, the 2% point, the value below which 2% of observations are expected to fall, has risen by 1.2 °C, in the summer the 98% point has risen by 0.8 °C. Medians have risen by 1.1 and 0.9 °C in winter and summer, respectively. The method can be used to describe distributions of future climate projections and other climate variables. Further extensions to the methodology are suggested.

Segregation effects according to the evolutionary stage of galaxy groups

We study segregation phenomena in 57 groups selected from the 2dF Percolation-Inferred Galaxy Groups (2PIGG) catalogue of galaxy groups. The sample corresponds to those systems located in areas of at least 80 per cent redshift coverage out to 10 times the radius of the groups. The dynamical state of the galaxy systems was determined after studying their velocity distributions. We have used the Anderson-Darling test to distinguish relaxed and non-relaxed systems. This analysis indicates that 84 per cent of groups have galaxy velocities consistent with the normal distribution, while 16 per cent of them have more complex underlying distributions. Properties of the member galaxies are investigated taking into account this classification. Our results indicate that galaxies in Gaussian groups are significantly more evolved than galaxies in non-relaxed systems out to distances of similar to 4R(200), presenting significantly redder (B - R) colours. We also find evidence that galaxies with M(R) <= -21.5 in Gaussian groups are closer to the condition of energy equipartition.

Expression Profile and Distribution of Efhc1 Gene Transcript During Rodent Brain Development

One of the putative causative genes for juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME) is EFHC1. We report here the expression profile and distribution of Efhc1 messenger RNA (mRNA) during mouse and rat brain development. Real-time polymerase chain reaction revealed that there is no difference in the expression of Efhc1 mRNA between right and left hemispheres in both species. In addition, the highest levels of Efhc1 mRNA were found at intra-uterine stages in mouse and in adulthood in rat. In common, there was a progressive decrease in Efhc1 expression from 1-day-old neonates to 14-day-old animals in both species. In situ hybridization studies showed that rat and mouse Efhc1 mRNAs are expressed in ependymal cells of ventricle walls. Our findings suggest that Efhc1 expression is more important during initial phases of brain development and that at this stage it could be involved in key developmental mechanisms underlying JME.

Population genetic analysis of large sequence polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage antigens

Plasmodium falciparum, the causative agent of human malaria, invades host erythrocytes using several proteins on the surface of the invasive merozoite, which have been proposed as potential vaccine candidates. Members of the multi-gene PfRh family are surface antigens that have been shown to play a central role in directing merozoites to alternative erythrocyte receptors for invasion. Recently, we identified a large structural polymorphism, a 0.58 Kb deletion, in the C-terminal region of the PfRh2b gene, present at a high frequency in parasite populations from Senegal. We hypothesize that this region is a target of humoral immunity. Here, by analyzing 371 P. falciparum isolates we show that this major allele is present at varying frequencies in different populations within Senegal, Africa, and throughout the world. For allelic dimorphisms in the asexual stage antigens, Msp-2 and EBA-175, we find minimal geographic differentiation among parasite populations from Senegal and other African localities, suggesting extensive gene flow among these populations and/or immune-mediated frequency-dependent balancing selection. In contrast, we observe a higher level of inter-population divergence (as measured by F(st)) for the PfRh2b deletion, similar to that observed for SNPs from the sexual stage Pfs45/48 loci, which is postulated to be under directional selection. We confirm that the region containing the PfRh2b polymorphism is a target of humoral immune responses by demonstrating antibody reactivity of endemic sera. Our analysis of inter-population divergence suggests that in contrast to the large allelic dimorphisms in EBA-175 and Msp-2, the presence or absence of the large PfRh2b deletion may not elicit frequency-dependent immune selection, but may be under positive immune selection, having important implications for the development of these proteins as vaccine candidates. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.