Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Investigating The Sources Of Fresh Water Affecting The Hydrological Balance Of Lakes Enriquillo And Azuei (Hispaniola) – Data Analysis

The Enriquillo and Azuei are saltwater lakes located in a closed water basin in the southwestern region of the island of La Hispaniola, these have been experiencing dramatic changes in total lake-surface area coverage during the period 1980-2012. The size of Lake Enriquillo presented a surface area of approximately 276 km2 in 1984, gradually decreasing to 172 km2 in 1996. The surface area of the lake reached its lowest point in the satellite observation record in 2004, at 165 km2. Then the recent growth of the lake began reaching its 1984 size by 2006. Based on surface area measurement for June and July 2013, Lake Enriquillo has a surface area of ~358 km2. Sumatra sizes at both ends of the record are 116 km2 in 1984 and 134 km2in 2013, an overall 15.8% increase in 30 years. Determining the causes of lake surface area changes is of extreme importance due to its environmental, social, and economic impacts. The overall goal of this study is to quantify the changing water balance in these lakes and their catchment area using satellite and ground observations and a regional atmospheric-hydrologic modeling approach. Data analyses of environmental variables in the region reflect a hydrological unbalance of the lakes due to changing regional hydro-climatic conditions. Historical data show precipitation, land surface temperature and humidity, and sea surface temperature (SST), increasing over region during the past decades. Salinity levels have also been decreasing by more than 30% from previously reported baseline levels. Here we present a summary of the historical data obtained, new sensors deployed in the sourrounding sierras and the lakes, and the integrated modeling exercises. As well as the challenges of gathering, storing, sharing, and analyzing this large volumen of data in a remote location from such a diverse number of sources.

Características acústicas da oclusiva glotal associada à sequência de Pierre Robin: estudo de caso

A fissura de palato, em associação à Sequência de Pierre Robin, pode favorecer o desenvolvimento de produções atípicas (compensatórias), na fala da criança, como é o caso da oclusiva glotal (golpe de glote) comumente observada em substituição aos sons oclusivos (vozeados ou não). No presente estudo, foi realizada a análise dos parâmetros fonético-acústicos da oclusiva glotal produzidas em /k/ e /g/ por uma criança do gênero feminino, com 5 anos, que apresentava fissura de palato reparada, associada à Sequência de Pierre Robin. Para isso, foram selecionadas seis palavras em que a oclusiva velar encontrava-se na posição inicial da palavra e combinada com as vogais /a/, /i/ e /u/ na posição acentuada. Foi ainda realizado julgamento perceptivo-auditivo por três fonoaudiólogos, que apresentou concordância quanto à presença da oclusiva glotal de 100% para ambas as relações (intra e inter-juízes). Na inspeção dos dados via espectrograma foi observada variabilidade dos parâmetros espectrais (burst e transição formântica) e essas variações também puderam ser computadas considerando as vogais separadamente. A análise estatística revelou diferença estatisticamente significante entre as duas consoantes velares (/k/ e /g/) nos parâmetros espectral (burst), temporal (VOT e duração relativa da oclusiva na palavra) e os relativos às características acústicas das vogais adjacentes às oclusivas (período estacionário de F3). Por fim, as características acústicas da oclusiva glotal sugeriram que a criança pode ter utilizado de estratégias para marcar contrastes fônicos na língua, ainda que os mesmos não tenham magnitude suficiente para serem resgatados auditivamente pelo ouvinte.

Experience-dependent upregulation of multiple plasticity factors in the hippocampus during early REM sleep

Sleep is beneficial to learning, but the underlying mechanisms remain controversial. The synaptic homeostasis hypothesis (SHY) proposes that the cognitive function of sleep is related to a generalized rescaling of synaptic weights to intermediate levels, due to a passive downregulation of plasticity mechanisms. A competing hypothesis proposes that the active upscaling and downscaling of synaptic weights during sleep embosses memories in circuits respectively activated or deactivated during prior waking experience, leading to memory changes beyond rescaling. Both theories have empirical support but the experimental designs underlying the conflicting studies are not congruent, therefore a consensus is yet to be reached. To advance this issue, we used real-time PCR and electrophysiological recordings to assess gene expression related to synaptic plasticity in the hippocampus and primary somatosensory cortex of rats exposed to novel objects, then kept awake (WK) for 60 min and finally killed after a 30 min period rich in WK, slow-wave sleep (SWS) or rapid-eye-movement sleep (REM). Animals similarly treated but not exposed to novel objects were used as controls. We found that the mRNA levels of Arc, Egr1, Fos, Ppp2ca and Ppp2r2d were significantly increased in the hippocampus of exposed animals allowed to enter REM, in comparison with control animals. Experience-dependent changes during sleep were not significant in the hippocampus for Bdnf, Camk4, Creb1, and Nr4a1, and no differences were detected between exposed and control SWS groups for any of the genes tested. No significant changes in gene expression were detected in the primary somatosensory cortex during sleep, in contrast with previous studies using longer post-stimulation intervals (>180 min). The experience-dependent induction of multiple plasticity-related genes in the hippocampus during early REM adds experimental support to the synaptic embossing theory.

Ocorrência e conservação de Touit melanonotus (Aves, Psittacidae) no sul do Brasil

O apuim-de-costas-pretas [Touit melanonotus (Wied, 1820)] é uma espécie florestal endêmica da Mata Atlântica Brasileira e de relevante interesse conservacionista. Trata-se de uma ave com poucas informações disponíveis acerca de sua história natural e distribuição geográfica e novas observações são importantes fontes de informação para auxiliar na conservação da espécie. Aqui reavaliamos o primeiro registro da espécie e apresentamos novas observações no estado do Paraná, sul do Brasil. As vocalizações atribuídas a T. melanonotus e que consubstanciaram sua ocorrência no estado foram examinadas com auxílio de espectrogramas e identificadas como vozes de Pionopsitta pileata (Scopoli, 1769). Não obstante, T. melanonotus ocorre com certa regularidade no Paraná, como indicado por novos registros da espécie em sete localidades distribuídas por todo o litoral do estado. Esta ave foi registrada principalmente em florestas de terras baixas e, uma vez que esta fisionomia sofre intensas pressões antrópicas, sugerimos que esforços de conservação da espécie devem priorizar a preservação desses hábitats.

¿Existe un modelo de microfinanzas en América Latina?

Incluye Bibliografía

Instituciones de microfinanciación en el desarrollo de mercados financieros

Incluye Bibliografía

Microfinance institutions in the development of financial markets

Includes bibliography

Regional Climate Modelling In The Caribbean

The information here represents a compilation of existing and ongoing regional and national climate modelling studies that could be useful in the execution of the regional project The Economics of Climate Change in Caribbean. The report is mainly focused on the sustainable regional efforts that represent opportunities for further developments in climate change scenarios. It describes the different techniques that have been used to model changes in temperature and precipitation in the Caribbean and compares the outputs of these models. Essentially, temperatures are expected to increase while precipitation may increase for countries in the more southerly latitudes, but decrease for more northerly countries (Bahamas, Cuba and Hispaniola) resulting in drought. These changes would present tremendous challenges for the Caribbean subregion and, despite significant progress made in recent years, there is a need for continuous development of climate research and modelling in the subregion, to produce more relevant information for regional and national studies and to overcome the limitations of existing results. This may well be realized through coordination of activities between the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) in Cuba and the University of the West Indies (UWI). These activities will address the implementation of further analyses using available information to generate best practices and to produce useful results. There are also new opportunities for climate research in the region with Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) which is planned to start early next year. It is expected that the participation of various Caribbean institutions like INSMET, UWI, CCCC and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology in this global project will allow the generation of new and more abundant information.

Investigação do efeito ictiotóxico do extrato etanólico da raíz de Spilanthes acmella (jambú) em zebrafish através da análise eletrofisiológica e comportamental

Dentre as várias espécies de plantas medicinais, encontra-se a espécie Spilanthes acmella, conhecida popularmente como jambú que se destaca por apresentar inúmeras aplicações na área da medicina popular. A medicina tradicional recomenda suas folhas e flores na elaboração de infusões no tratamento de anemia, dispepsia, malária, afecções da boca (dor de dente) e da garganta, contra escorbuto e também como antibiótico e anestésico. Sendo seus principais efeitos atribuídos ao espilantol, que é um representante importante das substâncias presentes nessas plantas. Alguns estudos já foram realizados utilizando o espilantol, possibilitando algumas informações da ação dessa substância, como seu efeito e imunomodulador devido sua interação funcional com monócitos, granulócitos e células killers. Porém, ainda não existem estudos eletrofisiológicos acerca de sua ação ictiotóxica, utilizando, por exemplo, o eletroencefalograma para demonstrar sua ação ao nível de Sistema Nervoso Central ou eletromiograma para verificar a ocorrência de sua ação a nível muscular no Zebrafish, evocando a necessidade dessa pesquisa a respeito do assunto. Com base nisso, o presente trabalho objetivou investigar a ação ictiotóxica do extrato etanólico da raiz de Spilanthes acmella em Zebrafish através da análise eletrofisiológica e comportamental. Os resultados mostraram que o extrato etanólico de Spilanthes acmella é um potente indutor de excitabilidade central no zebrafish, sendo isso constatado a partir das mudanças de padrões de atividade elétrica vistas no eletroencefalograma do animal submetido à droga e através do aumento da atividade encefálica visto no espectograma. O extrato também causou alterações, em menor escala, nos traçados eletromiográficos do zebrafish submetido à mesma concentração da droga, com aparecimento de contrações musculares esparsas e de mioclonias breves. Eos achados comportamentais, a partir da delimitação de três estágios de comportamentos, os quais se iniciaram com o aumento da excitabilidade do animal e culminam com a convulsão e morte do peixe, serviram para corroborar com os achados eletrofisiológicos de que o extrato etanólico de Spilanthes acmellaatua como potente droga com ação no sistema nervoso do zebrafish, com atividade convulsivante.

Study of Micro Rotary Ultrasonic Machining

Product miniaturization for applications in fields such as biotechnology, medical devices, aerospace, optics and communications has made the advancement of micromachining techniques essential. Machining of hard and brittle materials such as ceramics, glass and silicon is a formidable task. Rotary ultrasonic machining (RUM) is capable of machining these materials. RUM is a hybrid machining process which combines the mechanism of material removal of conventional grinding and ultrasonic machining. Downscaling of RUM for micro scale machining is essential to generate miniature features or parts from hard and brittle materials. The goal of this thesis is to conduct a feasibility study and to develop a knowledge base for micro rotary ultrasonic machining (MRUM). Positive outcome of the feasibility study led to a comprehensive investigation on the effect of process parameters. The effect of spindle speed, grit size, vibration amplitude, tool geometry, static load and coolant on the material removal rate (MRR) of MRUM was studied. In general, MRR was found to increase with increase in spindle speed, vibration amplitude and static load. MRR was also noted to depend upon the abrasive grit size and tool geometry. The behavior of the cutting forces was modeled using time series analysis. Being a vibration assisted machining process, heat generation in MRUM is low which is essential for bone machining. Capability of MRUM process for machining bone tissue was investigated. Finally, to estimate the MRR a predictive model was proposed. The experimental and the theoretical results exhibited a matching trend.

A system for classification of time-series data from industrial non-destructive device

This work proposes a system for classification of industrial steel pieces by means of magnetic nondestructive device. The proposed classification system presents two main stages, online system stage and off-line system stage. In online stage, the system classifies inputs and saves misclassification information in order to perform posterior analyses. In the off-line optimization stage, the topology of a Probabilistic Neural Network is optimized by a Feature Selection algorithm combined with the Probabilistic Neural Network to increase the classification rate. The proposed Feature Selection algorithm searches for the signal spectrogram by combining three basic elements: a Sequential Forward Selection algorithm, a Feature Cluster Grow algorithm with classification rate gradient analysis and a Sequential Backward Selection. Also, a trash-data recycling algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal feedback samples selected from the misclassified ones.

Studio della relazione tra concentrazione di ozono e temperatura dell'aria per l'elaborazione di scenari futuri

Questo lavoro nasce dall’intento di dare un’indicazione sul legame esistente tra la temperatura e la concentrazione di ozono. La correlazione, rintracciata sui dati osservati, è stata poi utilizzata allo scopo di elaborare proiezioni di evoluzioni future. Lo studio si è concentrato su un’area piuttosto ristretta della provincia di Parma, selezionata per la buona disponibilità di dati, sia di temperatura che di ozono, ma anche per la sua rappresentatività, dimostrata, delle caratteristiche dell’Emilia Romagna. Sulla base della scelta della stazione di misura di ozono sono state individuate tre località nelle vicinanze per avere dati di temperatura sia osservati sia provenienti da downscaling statistico. Proprio per quest’ultimo dataset sono stati elaborati scenari di temperatura per il periodo 2021-2050, rispetto al trentennio climatologico di riferimento 1961-1990, applicando il metodo di regionalizzazione statistica a cinque modelli globali. Le anomalie stagionali sono poi state date in ingresso a un generatore climatico in grado di produrre serie sintetiche giornaliere per il punto in esame. Un modello appositamente creato, ispirato al metodo di campionamento casuale stratificato, ha sfruttato sia queste informazioni sul futuro andamento della temperatura, sia la relazione trovata su dati osservati, per la costruzione di un set di concentrazioni di ozono previste per lo stesso trentennio futuro. Confrontando dal punto di vista statistico queste distribuzioni con quelle ricostruite per i periodi 1961-1990 e 2001-2012 si è valutato l’andamento della concentrazione di ozono. La conclusione più evidente a cui si giunge è la conferma del fatto che la situazione attuale dell’inquinamento da ozono nell’area di studio è decisamente più critica rispetto a quella che il modello ha ricostruito per il trentennio passato. La distribuzione dei valori di concentrazione di ozono degli ultimi dodici anni è invece molto più simile ormai al set di proiezioni previste per il futuro. Quello che potrà succedere a livello dell’inquinamento da ozono nel prossimo trentennio climatologico in Emilia Romagna dipende da quale modello si rivelerà più veritiero riguardo alla proiezione futura di temperatura: è infatti possibile che tutto rimanga molto simile alla situazione attuale o che si verificherà un ulteriore aumento, aggravando una situazione già critica.

Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Topographic and meteorological influences on spatial scaling of heavy convective rainfall in mountainous regions

Characterizing the spatial scaling and dynamics of convective precipitation in mountainous terrain and the development of downscaling methods to transfer precipitation fields from one scale to another is the overall motivation for this research. Substantial progress has been made on characterizing the space-time organization of Midwestern convective systems and tropical rainfall, which has led to the development of statistical/dynamical downscaling models. Space-time analysis and downscaling of orographic precipitation has received less attention due to the complexities of topographic influences. This study uses multiscale statistical analysis to investigate the spatial scaling of organized thunderstorms that produce heavy rainfall and flooding in mountainous regions. Focus is placed on the eastern and western slopes of the Appalachian region and the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Parameter estimates are analyzed over time and attention is given to linking changes in the multiscale parameters with meteorological forcings and orographic influences on the rainfall. Influences of geographic regions and predominant orographic controls on trends in multiscale properties of precipitation are investigated. Spatial resolutions from 1 km to 50 km are considered. This range of spatial scales is needed to bridge typical scale gaps between distributed hydrologic models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and attempts to address the open research problem of scaling organized thunderstorms and convection in mountainous terrain down to 1-4 km scales.