Effects of selection and drift on G matrix evolution in a heterogeneous environment: a multivariate Qst-Fst Test with the freshwater snail Galba truncatula.

Unraveling the effect of selection vs. drift on the evolution of quantitative traits is commonly achieved by one of two methods. Either one contrasts population differentiation estimates for genetic markers and quantitative traits (the Q(st)-F(st) contrast) or multivariate methods are used to study the covariance between sets of traits. In particular, many studies have focused on the genetic variance-covariance matrix (the G matrix). However, both drift and selection can cause changes in G. To understand their joint effects, we recently combined the two methods into a single test (accompanying article by Martin et al.), which we apply here to a network of 16 natural populations of the freshwater snail Galba truncatula. Using this new neutrality test, extended to hierarchical population structures, we studied the multivariate equivalent of the Q(st)-F(st) contrast for several life-history traits of G. truncatula. We found strong evidence of selection acting on multivariate phenotypes. Selection was homogeneous among populations within each habitat and heterogeneous between habitats. We found that the G matrices were relatively stable within each habitat, with proportionality between the among-populations (D) and the within-populations (G) covariance matrices. The effect of habitat heterogeneity is to break this proportionality because of selection for habitat-dependent optima. Individual-based simulations mimicking our empirical system confirmed that these patterns are expected under the selective regime inferred. We show that homogenizing selection can mimic some effect of drift on the G matrix (G and D almost proportional), but that incorporating information from molecular markers (multivariate Q(st)-F(st)) allows disentangling the two effects.

Calmodulin/KCa3.1 channel interactions as determinant to the KCa3.1 Ca2+ dependent gating : theoretical and experimental analyses

Differentes études ont montré que la sensibilité au Ca2+ du canal KCa3.1, un canal potassique indépendant du voltage, était conférée par la protéine calmoduline (CaM) liée de façon constitutive au canal. Cette liaison impliquerait la région C-lobe de la CaM et un domaine de $\ikca$ directement relié au segment transmembranaire S6 du canal. La CaM pourrait égalment se lier au canal de façon Ca2+ dépendante via une interaction entre un domaine de KCa3.1 du C-terminal (CaMBD2) et la région N-lobe de la CaM. Une étude fut entreprise afin de déterminer la nature des résidus responsables de la liaison entre le domaine CaMBD2 de KCa3.1 et la région N-lobe de la CaM et leur rôle dans le processus d'ouverture du canal par le Ca2+. Une structure 3D du complexe KCa3.1/CaM a d'abord été générée par modélisation par homologie avec le logiciel MODELLER en utilisant comme référence la structure cristalline du complexe SK2.2/CaM (PDB: 1G4Y). Le modèle ainsi obtenu de KCa3.1 plus CaM prévoit que le segment L361-S372 dans KCa3.1 devrait être responsable de la liaison dépendante du Ca2+ du canal avec la région N-lobe de la CaM via les résidus L361 et Q364 de KCa3.1 et E45, E47 et D50 de la CaM. Pour tester ce modèle, les résidus dans le segment L361-S372 ont été mutés en Cys et l'action du MTSET+ (chargé positivement) et MTSACE (neutre) a été mesurée sur l'activité du canal. Des enregistrements en patch clamp en configuration ``inside-out`` ont montré que la liaison du réactif chargé MTSET+ au le mutant Q364C entraîne une forte augmentation du courant, un effet non observé avec le MTSACE. De plus les mutations E45A et E47A dans la CaM, ont empêché l'augmentation du courant initié par MTSET+ sur le mutant Q364C. Une analyse en canal unitaire a confirmé que la liaison MTSET+ à Q364C cause une augmentation de la probabilité d'ouverture de KCa3.1 par une déstabilisation de l'état fermé du canal. Nous concluons que nos résultats sont compatibles avec la formation de liaisons ioniques entre les complexes chargés positivement Cys-MTSET+ à la position 364 de KCa3.1 et les résidus chargés négativement E45 et E47 dans la CaM. Ces données confirment qu'une stabilisation électrostatique des interactions CaM/KCa3.1 peut conduire à une augmentation de la probabilité d'ouverture du canal en conditions de concentrations saturantes de Ca2+.

The hotelling model with multiple demands

The purpose of this chapter is to provide an elementary introduction to the non-renewable resource model with multiple demand curves. The theoretical literature following Hotelling (1931) assumed that all energy needs are satisfied by one type of resource (e.g. ‘oil’), extractible at different per-unit costs. This formulation implicitly assumes that all users are the same distance from each resource pool, that all users are subject to the same regulations, and that motorist users can switch as easily from liquid fossil fuels to coal as electric utilities can. These assumptions imply, as Herfindahl (1967) showed, that in competitive equilibrium all users will exhaust a lower cost resource completely before beginning to extract a higher cost resource: simultaneous extraction of different grades of oil or of oil and coal should never occur. In trying to apply the single-demand curve model during the last twenty years, several teams of authors have independently found a need to generalize it to account for users differing in their (1) location, (2) regulatory environment, or (3) resource needs. Each research team found that Herfindahl's strong, unrealistic conclusion disappears in the generalized model; in its place, a weaker Herfindahl result emerges. Since each research team focussed on a different application, however, it has not always been clear that everyone has been describing the same generalized model. Our goal is to integrate the findings of these teams and to exposit the generalized model in a form which is easily accessible.

Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

Can dynamically downscaled windstorm footprints be improved by observations through a probabilistic approach?

Windstorms are a main feature of the European climate and exert strong socioeconomic impacts. Large effort has been made in developing and enhancing models to simulate the intensification of windstorms, resulting footprints, and associated impacts. Simulated wind or gust speeds usually differ from observations, as regional climate models have biases and cannot capture all local effects. An approach to adjust regional climate model (RCM) simulations of wind and wind gust toward observations is introduced. For this purpose, 100 windstorms are selected and observations of 173 (111) test sites of the German Weather Service are considered for wind (gust) speed. Theoretical Weibull distributions are fitted to observed and simulated wind and gust speeds, and the distribution parameters of the observations are interpolated onto the RCM computational grid. A probability mapping approach is applied to relate the distributions and to correct the modeled footprints. The results are not only achieved for single test sites but for an area-wide regular grid. The approach is validated using root-mean-square errors on event and site basis, documenting that the method is generally able to adjust the RCM output toward observations. For gust speeds, an improvement on 88 of 100 events and at about 64% of the test sites is reached. For wind, 99 of 100 improved events and ~84% improved sites can be obtained. This gives confidence on the potential of the introduced approach for many applications, in particular those considering wind data.

Analytical solutions of accreting black holes immersed in a Lambda CDM model

The evolution of the mass of a black hole embedded in a universe filled with dark energy and cold dark matter is calculated in a closed form within a test fluid model in a Schwarzschild metric, taking into account the cosmological evolution of both fluids. The result describes exactly how accretion asymptotically switches from the matter-dominated to the Lambda-dominated regime. For early epochs, the black hole mass increases due to dark matter accretion, and on later epochs the increase in mass stops as dark energy accretion takes over. Thus, the unphysical behaviour of previous analyses is improved in this simple exact model. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combined solar and pellet heating systems for single-family houses : How to achieve decreased electricity usage, increased system efficiency and increased solar gains

In Sweden, there are about 0.5 million single-family houses that are heated by electricity alone, and rising electricity costs force the conversion to other heating sources such as heat pumps and wood pellet heating systems. Pellet heating systems for single-family houses are currently a strongly growing market. Future lack of wood fuels is possible even in Sweden, and combining wood pellet heating with solar heating will help to save the bio-fuel resources. The objectives of this thesis are to investigate how the electrically heated single-family houses can be converted to pellet and solar heating systems, and how the annual efficiency and solar gains can be increased in such systems. The possible reduction of CO-emissions by combining pellet heating with solar heating has also been investigated. Systems with pellet stoves (both with and without a water jacket), pellet boilers and solar heating have been simulated. Different system concepts have been compared in order to investigate the most promising solutions. Modifications in system design and control strategies have been carried out in order to increase the system efficiency and the solar gains. Possibilities for increasing the solar gains have been limited to investigation of DHW-units for hot water production and the use of hot water for heating of dishwashers and washing machines via a heat exchanger instead of electricity (heat-fed appliances). Computer models of pellet stoves, boilers, DHW-units and heat-fed appliances have been developed and the parameters for the models have been identified from measurements on real components. The conformity between the models and the measurements has been checked. The systems with wood pellet stoves have been simulated in three different multi-zone buildings, simulated in detail with heat distribution through door openings between the zones. For the other simulations, either a single-zone house model or a load file has been used. Simulations were carried out for Stockholm, Sweden, but for the simulations with heat-fed machines also for Miami, USA. The foremost result of this thesis is the increased understanding of the dynamic operation of combined pellet and solar heating systems for single-family houses. The results show that electricity savings and annual system efficiency is strongly affected by the system design and the control strategy. Large reductions in pellet consumption are possible by combining pellet boilers with solar heating (a reduction larger than the solar gains if the system is properly designed). In addition, large reductions in carbon monoxide emissions are possible. To achieve these reductions it is required that the hot water production and the connection of the radiator circuit is moved to a well insulated, solar heated buffer store so that the boiler can be turned off during the periods when the solar collectors cover the heating demand. The amount of electricity replaced using systems with pellet stoves is very dependant on the house plan, the system design, if internal doors are open or closed and the comfort requirements. Proper system design and control strategies are crucial to obtain high electricity savings and high comfort with pellet stove systems. The investigated technologies for increasing the solar gains (DHW-units and heat-fed appliances) significantly increase the solar gains, but for the heat-fed appliances the market introduction is difficult due to the limited financial savings and the need for a new heat distribution system. The applications closest to market introduction could be for communal laundries and for use in sunny climates where the dominating part of the heat can be covered by solar heating. The DHW-unit is economical but competes with the internal finned-tube heat exchanger which is the totally dominating technology for hot water preparation in solar combisystems for single-family houses.

Passive MVC och MVVM designmönster i Android : En jämförelse av kodkomplexitet mellan Passive MVC och MVVM

Det mobila operativsystemet Android är idag ett ganska dominerande operativsystem på den mobila marknaden dels på grund av sin öppenhet men också på grund av att tillgängligheten är stor i och med både billiga och dyra telefoner finns att tillgå. Men idag har Android inget fördefinierat designmönster vilket leder till att varje utvecklare får bestämma själv vad som ska användas, vilket ibland kan leda till onödigt komplex kod i applikationerna som sen blir svårtestad och svårhanterlig. Detta arbete ämnar jämföra två designmönster, Passive Model View Controller (PMVC) och Model View View-Model (MVVM), för att se vilket designmönster som blir minst komplext med hjälp av att räkna fram mätvärden med hjälp av Cyclomatic Complexity Number (CCN). Studien är gjord utifrån arbetssättet Design & Creation och ämnar bidra med: kunskap om vilket mönster man bör välja, samt om CCN kan peka ut vilka delar i en applikation som kommer att ta mer eller mindre lång tid att testa. Under studiens gång tog vi även fram skillnader på om man anväder sig av den så kallade Single Responsibilyt Principle (SRP) eller inte. Detta för att se om separerade vyer gör någon skillnad i applikationernas komplexitet. I slutändan så visar studien på att komplexiteten i små applikationer är väldigt likvärdig, men att man även på små applikationer kan se skillnad på hur komplex koden är men också att kodkomplexitet på metodnivå kan ge riktlinjer för testfall.

Prediction intention to quit in the call centre industry: does the retail model fit?

Purpose – Models of workplace turnover are rarely assessed in contexts other than that in which they were developed. This reduces their generalizability and their usefulness in providing managers with guidance as to what they might do to reduce workers intentions to quit. The purpose of this study is to test a model derived from a study of shop floor retail salespeople in the call centre environment.

Design/methodology/approach – A questionnaire measuring the variables in the model was completed by 126 call centre representatives recruited from 11 call centres in Melbourne, Australia.

Findings – Although the model was supported, the interactions among the variables differed. In particular, stressors played a bigger, albeit indirect, role in the intention to quit.

Practical implications – Call centre managers need to consider carefully the aspects of the work environment that may be stressful. If appropriately addressed, turnover may be reduced, and productivity increased.

Originality/value – This paper demonstrates that the model of turnover derived from shop floor salespeople is generally robust in the call centre setting. It provides management of call centres with some guidance as to the factors associated with turnover and areas that can be addressed to reduce it.

Social control, self-control and psychosocial problems in adolescent males

‘Psychosocial problems’ are psychological problems that are regarded as resulting from the interaction between the adaptive capacities of individuals and the demands of their physical and social environments. Many different factors have been theoretically proposed, and empirically established, as predictors of a range of psychosocial problems in adolescents. However, a problem exists in that this literature appears to lack an integrative framework that has validity across the range of problems that are observed. The purpose of the current research is to propose and test a model that draws together three clusters of factors that are useful in predicting the incidence of adolescent psychosocial problems. These are family structural background factors, family functioning variables and control beliefs. Data were collected from 155 adolescent males aged between 12 and 19 by a single concurrent and retrospective self-report questionnaire. This included data about the respondent (age, involvements with mental health or juvenile justice agencies) and family structural background factors (days per week worked by mother/father, occupational status for mother/father, residential mobility, number of persons in the family home). The questionnaire also incorporated the Parental Bonding Instrument (Parker, Tupling & Brown, 1979) to quantify the levels of perceived parental care and overprotection, and an adaptation of the Parental Discipline Style Scale (Shaw & Scott, 1991), to assess punitive, love withdrawing and inductive discipline practices. In addition, the (Low) Self-control Scale (Grasmick, Tittle, Bursick & Arneklev, 1993) and the Locus of Control of Behaviour Scale (Craig, Franklin, & Andrews, 1984) were used to collect data concerning adolescents’ perceived behavioural self-control and locus of control. Finally, selected sub-scales of the Child Behavior Checklist Youth Self-Report (Achenbach, 1991b) were used to collect data on the incidence of social withdrawal, somatisation, anxiety and depression, aggression and delinquency among the respondents, and in aggregated form, the incidence of ‘total problems’ and internalising and externalising behaviours. Results indicated family structural background factors, family functioning variables and control beliefs possess limited predicted validity and that the usefulness of the proposed model varies between specific psychosocial problems. Family functioning variables were generally stronger predictors than family structural background factors, particularly for internalising behaviours. Of these, levels of parental care and overprotection were generally the strongest predictors. Perceived self-control and locus of control were also generally strong predictors, but were particularly powerful with respect to externalising behaviours. The strength of predictive relationships was observed to vary between specific internalising and externalising behaviours, suggesting that individual difference variables not assessed in the current research were differentially influential. Finally, the parental and individual characteristics that predicted maximal levels of adjustment (defined in terms of minimal levels of internalising and externalising behaviours) were explored and the correlates of various parenting style typologies (Parker et al., 1979) were investigated. These results strongly confirmed the importance of family functioning and control beliefs with respect to the prediction of internalising, externalising and well-adjusted behaviours. In all analyses, substantial proportions of the variance in the incidence of problem behaviours remain unexplained. The findings are examined in relation to previous research focused on (familial) social control and (individual) self-control with respect to psychosocial problems in adolescents. In addition, methodological considerations are discussed and the implications of the findings for clinical and community interventions to address problem behaviours, and for further study, are explored.

Investigating directionality for a media consumption construct : establishing the utility of confirmatory vanishing tetrad analysis

Purpose – When assessing the psychometric properties of measures and estimate relations among latent variables, many studies in the social sciences (including management and marketing) often fail to comprehensively appraise the directionality of indicants. Such failures can lead to model misspecification and inaccurate parameter estimates. The purpose of this paper is to apply a post hoc test called confirmatory vanishing tetrad analysis (CTA hereafter) to a single construct called mass media consumption information exposure, which antecedent studies conceptually posited to be a formative (causative) representation.
Design/methodology/approach – This paper analyses a consumer sample of 585 US respondents and applies the CTA test to a single construct by its inclusion in various matrices within a statistical analysis system-macro that takes into account nonnormal data characteristics. The matrices are derived from Mplus 5 through the estimation of a single-factor congeneric model. The CTA test calculates a test statistic similar to an asymptotic x2 distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of nonredundant tetrads tested.
Findings – The preliminary data analyses reveal that the data characteristics are nonnormal which is not uncommon in social research. The CTA results reveal that the reflective (emergent) item orientation cannot be fully ruled out as being the correct model representation. This is in contrast to prior theoretical conceptual work which would strongly support this construct being a formative representation.
Originality/value – Insofar as the authors are aware, there is no paper with a particular focus on how the CTA might not provide sound results with a demonstrated example. The paper makes a valuable contribution by discussing modelling philosophy and a procedure for directionality testing. The authors advocate the implementation of pre and post hoc tests as a key component of standard research practice.

3D sparse feature model using short baseline stereo and multiple view registration

This paper outlines a methodology to generate a distinctive object representation offline, using short-baseline stereo fundamentals to triangulate highly descriptive object features in multiple pairs of stereo images. A group of sparse 2.5D perspective views are built and the multiple views are then fused into a single sparse 3D model using a common 3D shape registration technique. Having prior knowledge, such as the proposed sparse feature model, is useful when detecting an object and estimating its pose for real-time systems like augmented reality.

Model to predict inpatient mortality from information gathered at presentation to an emergency department: The Triage Information Mortality Model (TIMM)

OBJECTIVES: To derive and validate a mortality prediction model from information available at ED triage. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression of variables from administrative datasets to predict inpatient mortality of patients admitted through an ED. Accuracy of the model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. The model was derived, internally validated and externally validated. Derivation and internal validation were in a tertiary referral hospital and external validation was in an urban community hospital. RESULTS: The ROC-AUC for the derivation set was 0.859 (95% CI 0.856-0.865), for the internal validation set was 0.848 (95% CI 0.840-0.856) and for the external validation set was 0.837 (95% CI 0.823-0.851). Calibration assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was good. CONCLUSIONS: The model successfully predicts inpatient mortality from information available at the point of triage in the ED.

Hydropower Energy Simulation Using Mike 11 Model; A Case Study In South Germany's Small Run-Of-River Hydropower Plants

Renewable energy production is a basic supplement to stabilize rapidly increasing global energy demand and skyrocketing energy price as well as to balance the fluctuation of supply from non-renewable energy sources at electrical grid hubs. The European energy traders, government and private company energy providers and other stakeholders have been, since recently, a major beneficiary, customer and clients of Hydropower simulation solutions. The relationship between rainfall-runoff model outputs and energy productions of hydropower plants has not been clearly studied. In this research, association of rainfall, catchment characteristics, river network and runoff with energy production of a particular hydropower station is examined. The essence of this study is to justify the correspondence between runoff extracted from calibrated catchment and energy production of hydropower plant located at a catchment outlet; to employ a unique technique to convert runoff to energy based on statistical and graphical trend analysis of the two, and to provide environment for energy forecast. For rainfall-runoff model setup and calibration, MIKE 11 NAM model is applied, meanwhile MIKE 11 SO model is used to track, adopt and set a control strategy at hydropower location for runoff-energy correlation. The model is tested at two selected micro run-of-river hydropower plants located in South Germany. Two consecutive calibration is compromised to test the model; one for rainfall-runoff model and other for energy simulation. Calibration results and supporting verification plots of two case studies indicated that simulated discharge and energy production is comparable with the measured discharge and energy production respectively.