Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity : new evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and(4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country.

Mildura, Victoria : Aboriginal health promotion short course

The Victorian Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation’s (VACCHO) Public Health and Research Unit delivered an Aboriginal Health Promotion Short Course in Mildura in 2009. ----- The VACCHO delivered Aboriginal Health Promotion Short Course included current health promotion theory and practice as it specifically relates to Aboriginal people within Victoria. As Aboriginal people have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, the course specifically addressed risk factors for chronic disease including smoking, physical activity, nutrition and mental health and well-being. Hence, a key part of the course involved participants working in groups to plan a health promotion program for one of the key health issues- smoking, physical activity and nutrition, or spiritual health and wellbeing. The aim is for participants to use these programs in their daily work with Aboriginal clients.

Low-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures in the 1:1 and 1:2 proton-transfer compounds of 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid with the aliphatic Lewis bases triethylamine, diethylamine, n-butylamine and piperidine

The structures of proton-transfer compounds of 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid (DCPA) with the aliphatic Lewis bases triethylamine, diethylamine, n-butylamine and piperidine, namely triethylaminium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate C~6~H~16~N^+^ C~8~H~3~Cl~2~O~4~^-^ (I), diethylaminium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate C~4~H~12~N^+^ C~8~H~3~Cl~2~O~4~^-^ (II), bis(n-butylaminium) 4,5-dichlorophthalate monohydrate 2(C~4~H~12~N^+^) C~8~H~2~Cl~2~O~4~^2-^ . H~2~O (III) and bis(piperidinium) 4,5-dichlorophthalate monohydrate 2(C~5~H~12~N^+^) C~8~H~2~Cl~2~O~4~^2-^ . H~2~O (IV)have been determined at 200 K. All compounds have hydrogen-bonding associations giving in (I) discrete cation-anion units, linear chains in (II) while (III) and (IV) both have two-dimensional structures. In (I) a discrete cation-anion unit is formed through an asymmetric R2/1(4) N+-H...O,O' hydrogen-bonding association whereas in (II), one-dimensional chains are formed through linear N-H...O associations by both aminium H donors. In compounds (III) and (IV) the primary N-H...O linked cation-anion units are extended into a two-dimensional sheet structure via amide N-H...O(carboxyl) and ...O(carbonyl) interactions. In the 1:1 salts [(I) and (II)], the hydrogen 4,5-dichlorophthalate anions are essentially planar with short intramolecular carboxylic acid O-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen bonds [O...O, 2.4223(14) and 2.388(2)A respectively]. This work provides a further example of the uncommon zero-dimensional hydrogen-bonded DCPA-Lewis base salt and the one-dimensional chain structure type, while even with the hydrate structures of the 1:2 salts with the primary and secondary amines, the low dimensionality generally associated with 1:1 DCPA salts is also found.

The effectiveness of a short-term group music therapy intervention for parents who have a child with a disability

The relationship between the quality of parent-child interactions and positive child developmental trajectories is well established (Guralnick, 2006; Shonkoff & Meissels, 2000; Zubrick et al., 2008). However, a range of parental, family, and socio-economic factors can pose risks to parents’ capacity to participate in quality interactions with their children. In particular, families with a child with a disability have been found to have higher levels of parenting stress, and are more likely to experience economic disadvantage, as well as social isolation. The importance of early interventions to promote positive parenting and child development for these families is widely recognised (Shonkoff & Meissels, 2000). However, to date, there is a lack of evidence about the effectiveness of early parenting programs for families who have a young child with a disability. This thesis investigates the impact of a music therapy parenting program, Sing & Grow, on 201 parent-child dyads who attended programs specifically targeted to parents who had a young child with a disability. Sing & Grow is an Australian national early parenting intervention funded by the Australian Government Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs and delivered by Playgroup Queensland. It is designed and delivered by Registered Music Therapists for families with children aged from birth to three years. It aims to improve parenting skills and confidence, improve family functioning (positive parent-child interactions), enhance child development, and provide social networking opportunities to socially isolated families. The intervention targets a range of families in circumstances that have the potential to impact negatively on family functioning. This thesis uses data from the National Evaluation Study of Sing & Grow from programs which were targeted at families who had a young child with a disability. Three studies were conducted to address the objectives of this thesis. Study 1 examines the effects of the Sing & Grow intervention on parent reported pre and post parent mental health, parenting confidence, parenting skills, and child development, and other parent reported outcomes including social support, use of intervention resources, satisfaction with the intervention and perceived benefits of and barriers to participation. Significant improvements from pre to post were found for parent mental health and parent reported child communication and social skills, along with evidence that parents were very satisfied with the program and that it brought social benefits to families. Study 2 explored the pre to post effects of the intervention on children’s developmental skills and parent-child interactions using observational ratings made by clinicians. Significant pre to post improvements were found for parenting sensitivity, parental engagement with child and acceptance of child as well as for child responsiveness to parent, interest, and participation in the intervention, and social skills. Study 3 examined the nature of child and family characteristics that predicted better outcomes for families while taking account of the level of participation in the program. An overall outcome index was calculated and served as the dependent variable in a logistic regression analysis. Families who attended six or more sessions and mothers who had not completed high school were more likely to have higher outcome scores at post intervention than those who attended fewer sessions and those with more educated mothers respectively. The findings of this research indicate that the intervention had a positive impact on participants’ mental health, parenting behaviours and child development and that level of attendance was associated with better outcomes. There was also evidence that the program reached its target of high risk families (i.e., families in which mothers had lower educational levels) and that for these families better outcomes were achieved. There were also indications that the program was accessible and highly regarded by families and that it promoted social connections for participants. A theoretical model of how the intervention is currently working for families is proposed to explain the connections between early parenting, child development and maternal wellbeing. However, more research is required to further elucidate the mechanisms by which the intervention creates change for families. This research presents promising evidence that a short term group music therapy program can elicit important therapeutic benefits for families who have a child with a disability.

Three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures in the guanidinium salts of the monocyclic dicarboxylic acids rac-trans-cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylic acid (2:1, anhydrous), isophthalic acid (1:1, monohydrate) and terephthalic acid (2:1, trihydrate).

The structures of bis(guanidinium)rac-trans-cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylate, 2(CH6N3+) C8H10O4- (I), guanidinium 3-carboxybenzoate monohydrate CH6N3+ C8H5O4- . H2O (II) and bis(guanidinium) benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate trihydrate, 2(CH6N3+) C8H4O4^2- . 3H2O (III) have been determined and the hydrogen bonding in each examined. All three compounds form three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded framework structures. In anhydrous (I), both guanidinium cations give classic cyclic R2/2(8) N--H...O,O'(carboxyl) and asymmetric cyclic R1/2(6) hydrogen-bonding interactions while one cation gives an unusual enlarged cyclic interaction with O acceptors of separate ortho-related carboxyl groups [graph set R2/2(11)]. Cations and anions also associate across inversion centres giving cyclic R2/4(8) motifs. In the 1:1 guanidinium salt (II), the cation gives two separate cyclic R1/2(6) interactions, one with a carboxyl O-acceptor, the other with the water molecule of solvation. The structure is unusual in that both carboxyl groups give short inter-anion O...H...O contacts, one across a crystallographic inversion centre [2.483(2)\%A], the other about a two-fold axis of rotation [2.462(2)\%A] with a half-occupancy hydrogen delocalized on the symmetry element in each. The water molecule links the cation--anion ribbon structures into a three-dimensional framework. In (III), the repeating molecular unit comprises a benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate dianion which lies across a crystallographic inversion centre, two guanidinium cations and two water molecules of solvation (each set related by two-fold rotational symmetry), and a single water molecule which lies on a two-fold axis. Each guanidinium cation gives three types of cyclic interactions with the dianions: one R^1^~2~(6), the others R2/3(8) and R3/3(10) (both of these involving the water molecules), giving a three-dimensional structure through bridges down the b cell direction. The water molecule at the general site also forms an unusual cyclic R2/2(4) homodimeric association across an inversion centre [O--H...O, 2.875(2)\%A]. The work described here provides further examples of the common cyclic guanidinium cation...carboxylate anion hydrogen-bonding associations as well as featuring other less common cyclic motifs.

The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in Tianjin, China : comparison of time series and case–crossover analyses

Background: Many studies have illustrated that ambient air pollution negatively impacts on health. However, little evidence is available for the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in Tianjin, China. Also, no study has examined which strata length for the time-stratified case–crossover analysis gives estimates that most closely match the estimates from time series analysis. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the effects of air pollutants on CVM in Tianjin, China, and compare time-stratified case–crossover and time series analyses. Method: A time-stratified case–crossover and generalized additive model (time series) were applied to examine the impact of air pollution on CVM from 2005 to 2007. Four time-stratified case–crossover analyses were used by varying the stratum length (Calendar month, 28, 21 or 14 days). Jackknifing was used to compare the methods. Residual analysis was used to check whether the models fitted well. Results: Both case–crossover and time series analyses show that air pollutants (PM10, SO2 and NO2) were positively associated with CVM. The estimates from the time-stratified case–crossover varied greatly with changing strata length. The estimates from the time series analyses varied slightly with changing degrees of freedom per year for time. The residuals from the time series analyses had less autocorrelation than those from the case–crossover analyses indicating a better fit. Conclusion: Air pollution was associated with an increased risk of CVM in Tianjin, China. Time series analyses performed better than the time-stratified case–crossover analyses in terms of residual checking.

Randomised controlled trial of an automated, interactive telephone intervention to improve type 2 diabetes self-management (Telephone-Linked Care Diabetes Project) : study protocol

Background: An estimated 285 million people worldwide have diabetes and its prevalence is predicted to increase to 439 million by 2030. For the year 2010, it is estimated that 3.96 million excess deaths in the age group 20-79 years are attributable to diabetes around the world. Self-management is recognised as an integral part of diabetes care. This paper describes the protocol of a randomised controlled trial of an automated interactive telephone system aiming to improve the uptake and maintenance of essential diabetes self-management behaviours. ---------- Methods/Design: A total of 340 individuals with type 2 diabetes will be randomised, either to the routine care arm, or to the intervention arm in which participants receive the Telephone-Linked Care (TLC) Diabetes program in addition to their routine care. The intervention requires the participants to telephone the TLC Diabetes phone system weekly for 6 months. They receive the study handbook and a glucose meter linked to a data uploading device. The TLC system consists of a computer with software designed to provide monitoring, tailored feedback and education on key aspects of diabetes self-management, based on answers voiced or entered during the current or previous conversations. Data collection is conducted at baseline (Time 1), 6-month follow-up (Time 2), and 12-month follow-up (Time 3). The primary outcomes are glycaemic control (HbA1c) and quality of life (Short Form-36 Health Survey version 2). Secondary outcomes include anthropometric measures, blood pressure, blood lipid profile, psychosocial measures as well as measures of diet, physical activity, blood glucose monitoring, foot care and medication taking. Information on utilisation of healthcare services including hospital admissions, medication use and costs is collected. An economic evaluation is also planned.---------- Discussion: Outcomes will provide evidence concerning the efficacy of a telephone-linked care intervention for self-management of diabetes. Furthermore, the study will provide insight into the potential for more widespread uptake of automated telehealth interventions, globally.

The power of educational podcasting : using short-format podcasts to reinforce tertiary student learning experiences in science

In 2007 I introduced short-format educational podcast resources that reinforced conceptual teaching and learning in an interdisciplinary tertiary science study area (biochemistry). This study aims to determine student attitudes to the perceived usefulness and benefit of short-format educational podcasts, and presents the findings (qualitative and quantitative) from surveys obtained from three offerings of the science teaching unit (2007, 2008 and 2009). Podcasts were recorded (MP3 audio files) separately from the instructive lecture sessions, and subsequent to the weekly lecture, short-format podcasts summarising the key learning objectives were integrated within the resources presented through the students learning management system (Blackboard). The vast majority (>88%) of students utilised the podcast resources, indicating a high level of acceptance and uptake for this portable educational technology. The respondents reported that podcasts focused their attention to core learning concepts and supported their understanding and learning of the lecture material. Furthermore, the data showed that respondents agreed strongly that podcasts assisted with study and revision for examinations and, somewhat surprisingly, there was a perception that podcasts positively impacted on examination performance. Overall, student users perceived that podcasting is as an effective and valuable educational tool that offers convenience and flexibility for their learning and understanding of a tertiary science study area, such as biochemistry.

Living well with diabetes: a randomized controlled trial of a telephone-delivered intervention for maintenance of weight loss, physical activity and glycaemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes

Background By 2025, it is estimated that approximately 1.8 million Australian adults (approximately 8.4% of the adult population) will have diabetes, with the majority having type 2 diabetes. Weight management via improved physical activity and diet is the cornerstone of type 2 diabetes management. However, the majority of weight loss trials in diabetes have evaluated short-term, intensive clinic-based interventions that, while producing short-term outcomes, have failed to address issues of maintenance and broad population reach. Telephone-delivered interventions have the potential to address these gaps. Methods/Design Using a two-arm randomised controlled design, this study will evaluate an 18-month, telephone-delivered, behavioural weight loss intervention focussing on physical activity, diet and behavioural therapy, versus usual care, with follow-up at 24 months. Three-hundred adult participants, aged 20-75 years, with type 2 diabetes, will be recruited from 10 general practices via electronic medical records search. The Social-Cognitive Theory driven intervention involves a six-month intensive phase (4 weekly calls and 11 fortnightly calls) and a 12-month maintenance phase (one call per month). Primary outcomes, assessed at 6, 18 and 24 months, are: weight loss, physical activity, and glycaemic control (HbA1c), with weight loss and physical activity also measured at 12 months. Incremental cost-effectiveness will also be examined. Study recruitment began in February 2009, with final data collection expected by February 2013. Discussion This is the first study to evaluate the telephone as the primary method of delivering a behavioural weight loss intervention in type 2 diabetes. The evaluation of maintenance outcomes (6 months following the end of intervention), the use of accelerometers to objectively measure physical activity, and the inclusion of a cost-effectiveness analysis will advance the science of broad reach approaches to weight control and health behaviour change, and will build the evidence base needed to advocate for the translation of this work into population health practice.

Categorisation of activities of daily living of lower limb amputees during short-term use of a portable kinetic recording system : a preliminary study

The purpose of this preliminary study was to determine the relevance of the categorization of the load regime data to assess the functional output and usage of the prosthesis of lower limb amputees. The objectives were a) to introduce a categorization of load regime, b) to present some descriptors of each activity, and c) to report the results for a case. The load applied on the osseointegrated fixation of one transfemoral amputee was recorded using a portable kinetic system for 5 hours. The periods of directional locomotion, localized locomotion, and stationary loading occurred 44%, 34%, and 22% of recording time and each accounted for 51%, 38%, and 12% of the duration of the periods of activity, respectively. The absolute maximum force during directional locomotion, localized locomotion, and stationary loading was 19%, 15%, and 8% of the body weight on the anteroposterior axis, 20%, 19%, and 12% on the mediolateral axis, and 121%, 106%, and 99% on the long axis. A total of 2,783 gait cycles were recorded. Approximately 10% more gait cycles and 50% more of the total impulse than conventional analyses were identified. The proposed categorization and apparatus have the potential to complement conventional instruments, particularly for difficult cases.

tert-Butylaminium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate

In the structure of the title anhydrous salt C4H12N+ C8H3Cl2O4-, the 4,5-dichlorophthalate monoanions have the common 'planar' conformation with the carboxyl groups close to coplanar with the benzene ring and with a short intramolecular carboxylic acid O-H...O hydrogen bond. A two-dimensional sheet structure is formed through aminium N-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen-bonding associations.

CDKN2A is not the principal target of deletions on the short arm of chromosome 9 in neuroendocrine (Merkel cell) carcinoma of the skin

The majority of small-cell lung cancers (SCLCs) express p16 but not pRb. Given our previous study showing loss of pRb in Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC)/neuroendocrine carcinoma of the skin and the clinicopathological similarities between SCLC and MCC, we wished to determine if this was also the case in MCC. Twenty-nine MCC specimens from 23 patients were examined for deletions at 10 loci on 9p and 1 on 9q. No loss of heterozygosity (LOH) was seen in 9 patients including 2 for which tumour and cell line DNAs were examined. Four patients had LOH for all informative loci on 9p. Ten tumours showed more limited regions of loss on 9p, and from these 2 common regions of deletion were determined. Half of all informative cases had LOH at D9S168, the most telomeric marker examined, and 3 specimens showed loss of only D9S168. A second region (IFNA-D9S126) showed LOH in 10 (44%) cases, and case MCC26 showed LOH for only D9S126, implicating genes centromeric of the CDKN2A locus. No mutations in the coding regions of p16 were seen in 7 cell lines tested, and reactivity to anti-p16 antibody was seen in all 11 tumour specimens examined and in 6 of 7 cell lines from 6 patients. Furthermore, all cell lines examined reacted with anti-p14(ARF) antibody. These results suggest that neither transcript of the CDKN2A locus is the target of deletions on 9p in MCC and imply the existence of tumour-suppressor genes mapping both centromeric and telomeric of this locus.

Library and information science education 2.0 : guiding principles and models of best practice ALTC Fellowship Report

This ALTC Teaching Fellowship aimed to establish Guiding Principles for Library and Information Science Education 2.0. The aim was achieved by (i) identifying the current and anticipated skills and knowledge required by successful library and information science (LIS) professionals in the age of web 2.0 (and beyond), (ii) establishing the current state of LIS education in Australia in supporting the development of librarian 2.0, and in doing so, identify models of best practice. The fellowship has contributed to curriculum renewal in the LIS profession. It has helped to ensure that LIS education in Australia continues to meet the changing skills and knowledge requirements of the profession it supports. It has also provided a vehicle through which LIS professionals and LIS educators may find opportunities for greater collaboration and more open communication. This will help bridge the gap between LIS theory and practice and will foster more authentic engagement between LIS education and other parts of the LIS industry in the education of the next generation of professionals. Through this fellowship the LIS discipline has become a role model for other disciplines who will be facing similar issues in the coming years. Eighty-one members of the Australian LIS profession participated in a series of focus groups exploring the current and anticipated skills and knowledge needed by the LIS professional in the web 2.0 world and beyond. Whilst each focus group tended to draw on specific themes of interest to that particular group of people, there was a great deal of common ground. Eight key themes emerged: technology, learning and education, research or evidence-based practice, communication, collaboration and team work, user focus, business savvy and personal traits. It was acknowledged that the need for successful LIS professionals to possess transferable skills and interpersonal attributes was not new. It was noted however that the speed with which things are changing in the web 2.0 world was having a significant impact and that this faster pace is placing a new and unexpected emphasis on the transferable skills and knowledge. It was also acknowledged that all librarians need to possess these skills, knowledge and attributes and not just the one or two role models who lead the way. The most interesting finding however was that web 2.0, library 2.0 and librarian 2.0 represented a ‘watershed’ for the LIS profession. Almost all the focus groups spoke about how they are seeing and experiencing a culture change in the profession. Librarian 2.0 requires a ‘different mindset or attitude’. The Levels of Perspective model by Daniel Kim provides one lens by which to view this finding. The focus group findings suggest that we are witnessing a re-awaking of the Australian LIS profession as it begins to move towards the higher levels of Kim’s model (ie mental models, vision). Thirty-six LIS educators participated in telephone interviews aimed at exploring the current state of LIS education in supporting the development of librarian 2.0. Skills and knowledge of LIS professionals in a web 2.0 world that were identified and discussed by the LIS educators mirrored those highlighted in the focus group discussions with LIS professionals. Similarly it was noted that librarian 2.0 needed a focus less on skills and knowledge and more on attitude. However, whilst LIS professionals felt that there was a paradigm shift within the profession. LIS educators did not speak with one voice on this matter with quite a number of the educators suggesting that this might be ‘overstating it a bit’. This study provides evidence for “disparate viewpoints” (Hallam, 2007) between LIS educators and LIS professionals that can have a significant implications for the future of not just LIS professional education specifically but for the profession generally. Library and information science education 2.0: guiding principles and models of best practice 1 Inviting the LIS academics to discuss how their teaching and learning activities support the development of librarian 2.0 was a core part of the interviews conducted. The strategies used and the challenges faced by LIS educators in developing their teaching and learning approaches to support the formation of librarian 2.0 are identified and discussed. A core part of the fellowship was the identification of best practice examples on how LIS educators were developing librarian 2.0. Twelve best practice examples were identified. Each educator was recorded discussing his or her approach to teaching and learning. Videos of these interviews are available via the Fellowship blog at .The LIS educators involved in making the videos felt uncomfortable with the term ‘best practice’. Many acknowledged that there simply seeking to do the best by their students and that there was always room for improvement. For this reason these videos are offered as examples of “great practice”. The videos are a tool for other educators to use, regardless of discipline, in developing their teaching and learning approaches to supporting web 2.0 professionals. It has been argued that the main purpose of professional education is transformation (Dall’ Alba, 2009; Dall’Alba & Barnacle, 2007). As such professional education should focus not just on skills and knowledge acquisition but also on helping students to develop ways of being the professionals in question (ie LIS professionals, teachers, lawyers, engineers).The aim of this fellowship was to establish Guidelines for Library and Information Science Education 2.0 it has however become apparent that at this point in time it is not yet possible to fulfil this aim. The fellowship has clearly identified skills and knowledge needed by the LIS professional in web 2.0 world (and beyond). It has also identified examples of ‘great practice’ by LIS educators as they endeavour to develop LIS professionals who will be successful in a web 20 world. The fellowship however has also shown that the LIS profession is currently undergoing significant attitudinal and conceptual change. Consequently, before a philosophy of LIS education 2.0 can be expressed, the Australian LIS profession must first explore and articulate what it means to be an LIS professional in the 21st century (ie a world of web 2.0 and beyond). In short, the LIS profession in Australia must take stock not of “what we know and can do” but on “who we are becoming” (Dall’Alba, 2009, p 34).

i-vector based speaker recognition on short utterances

Robust speaker verification on short utterances remains a key consideration when deploying automatic speaker recognition, as many real world applications often have access to only limited duration speech data. This paper explores how the recent technologies focused around total variability modeling behave when training and testing utterance lengths are reduced. Results are presented which provide a comparison of Joint Factor Analysis (JFA) and i-vector based systems including various compensation techniques; Within-Class Covariance Normalization (WCCN), LDA, Scatter Difference Nuisance Attribute Projection (SDNAP) and Gaussian Probabilistic Linear Discriminant Analysis (GPLDA). Speaker verification performance for utterances with as little as 2 sec of data taken from the NIST Speaker Recognition Evaluations are presented to provide a clearer picture of the current performance characteristics of these techniques in short utterance conditions.